Armstrong Economics_Gold – To Buy or Not To Buy

Armstrong Economics

馬田大師提到,直至2015年,這段時間內黃金是築底階段




Gold is still in a basing phase. The interesting thing is how some have sold this market as the single exception to everything in the world and how it can only rise. Gold is a tiny fraction within the scheme of the global economy. It really is no longer relevant for in case you haven’t noticed, they have successfully replaced even paper with electronic bits of data – ie Bitcoin. This changes everything and eliminates privacy.


Nonetheless, all is not lost. It is important to at least understand the nature of the beast or else how are you going to survive.

 Gold is a  infinitesimal market and claims that it has to rise to $30,000 to restore some equilibrium sound nice, but are impractical. Here are two coins, the rarest of all Roman known as the Saturninus of which (1) is in private hands, and the 1804 US silver dollar of which there are 15 known. The Roman sold for $500,000 back in 1997 whereas the 1804 sold for $3.7 million in 2008. The Roman today would probably fetch $5 million or more, but there is no equilibrium. Demand fluctuates and like the silver gold ratio, it will move all over the place.

The advantage of gold has been its wide acceptance of an object of value. That has made it desirable and negotiable. But make no mistake about it, it will not go to $30,000 simply because if you divide the gold reserves into the debt that is where it should be. Sounds nice, but NOTHING works that way. Using that logic, the Saturninus should bring 15 times that of an 1804 US coin or about $55 million. You can look at countless areas in all countries and sectors. What makes a condo worth $5 million in NYC when the same thing in Princeton, New Jersey would be $1 million. It is called demand.  

The Dow was at 1,000 in 1980 and gold hit $875. The Dow reached almost 15,000 and gold almost 2,000. Under this logic, gold has to rise to match the Dow, or the Dow must crash to match gold. Such equilibrium comparisons are like fools gold.


 
Gold will rise, but not until 2015-2017 for an exponential move. It should find support and establish a base. It will rally and get everyone excited as they always do coming out claiming the low is in place and how they were right because money is fiat. 

Then gold will go back down, they will eventually have to capitulate and those that bought on the nonsense of stories for the wrong reasons will get burned as always. Understand, it is a market. There is a TIME to buy and there is a TIME to sell. Welcome to cycles.

armstrongeconomics.com 

Paul Craig Roberts 黃金的打擊

宋鴻兵

保羅羅伯茨4月4日撰文“對黃金的打擊”，深刻分析了美國打壓黃金的戰略目的，內容震撼！羅伯茨曾任裡根政府的財政部部長助理，主管美國經濟政策，被譽為裡根經濟學的創始人之一。文中指出2011年黃金暴漲500美元，強烈震撼了美聯儲和政府，為捍衛美元霸權必須鎮壓黃金！美國政府是金銀下跌的主導力量！

 文中透露美聯儲對黃金的“4月愚人節攻勢”是有組織的政府行為，事先美聯儲告知了重要的交易商，並即刻傳遞給他們的最大客戶，對沖基金和主要投資人即將對金銀大幅減倉，這些客戶應在此之前迅速撤離黃金白銀的多頭市場。

黃金是美元的死敵，美國不怕全世界買紙黃金和紙白銀，因為美國能夠通過巨大的衍生產品的交易量操縱金銀價格。但是，美國非常不願看到各國投資人購買實物金銀，並且搬回去自己保管，因為這樣一來，控制金銀價格的遊戲最終必將穿幫。這將是一場決定世界貨幣命運的生死博弈，鬥爭將會極其殘酷！ 

www.paulcraigroberts.org/ 

The Assault On Gold — Paul Craig Roberts

April 4, 2013 |
 

For Americans, financial and economic Armageddon might be close at hand. The evidence for this conclusion is the concerted effort by the Federal Reserve and its dependent financial institutions to scare people away from gold and silver by driving down their prices. 

When gold prices hit $1,917.50 an ounce on August 23, 2011, a gain of more than $500 an ounce in less than 8 months, capping a rise over a decade from $272 at the end of December 2000, the Federal Reserve panicked. With the US dollar losing value so rapidly compared to the world standard for money, the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing $1 trillion annually in order to support the impaired balance sheets of banks and to finance the federal deficit was placed in danger. Who could believe the dollar’s exchange rate in relation to other currencies when the dollar was collapsing in value in relation to gold and silver.

The Federal Reserve realized that its massive purchase of bonds in order to keep their
prices high (and thus interest rates low) was threatened by the dollar’s rapid loss of value in terms of gold and silver. The Federal Reserve was concerned that large holders of US dollars, such as the central banks of China and Japan and the OPEC sovereign investment funds, might join the flight of individual investors away from the US dollar, thus ending in the fall of the dollar’s foreign exchange value and thus decline in US bond and stock prices. 

Intelligent people could see that the US government could not afford the long and numerous wars that the neoconservatives were engineering or the loss of tax base and consumer income from offshoring millions of US middle class jobs for the sake of executive bonuses and shareholder capital gains. They could see what was in the cards, and began exiting the dollar for gold and silver.
Central banks are slower to act. Saudi Arabia and the oil emirates are dependent on US protection and do not want to anger their protector. Japan is a puppet state that is careful in its relationship with its master. China wanted to hold on to the American consumer market for as long as that market existed. It was individuals who began the exit from the US dollar.

When gold topped $1,900, Washington put out the story that gold was a bubble. The presstitute media fell in line with Washington’s propaganda. “Gold looking a bit bubbly” declared CNN Money on August 23, 2011.

The Federal Reserve used its dependent “banks too big to fail” to short the precious metals markets. By selling naked shorts in the paper bullion market against the rising demand for physical possession, the Federal Reserve was able to drive the price of gold down to $1,750 and keep it more or less capped there until recently, when a concerted effort on April 2-3, 2013, drove gold down to $1,557 and silver, which had approached $50 per ounce in 2011, down to $27.

The Federal Reserve began its April Fool’s assault on gold by sending the word to brokerage houses, which quickly went out to clients, that hedge funds and other large investors were going to unload their gold positions and that clients should get out of the precious metal market prior to these sales. As this inside information was the government’s own strategy, individuals cannot be prosecuted for acting on it. By this operation, the Federal Reserve, a totally corrupt entity, was able to combine individual flight with institutional flight. Bullion prices took a big hit, and bullishness departed from the gold and silver markets. The flow of dollars into bullion, which threatened to become a torrent, was stopped.

For now it seems that the Fed has succeeded in creating wariness among Americans about the virtues of gold and silver, and thus the Federal Reserve has extended the time that it can print money to keep the house of cards standing. This time could be short or it could last a couple of years.
However, for the Russians and Chinese, whose central banks have more dollars than they any longer want, and for the 1.3 billion Indians in India, the low dollar price for gold that the Federal Reserve has engineered is an opportunity. They see the opportunity that the Federal Reserve has given them to purchase gold at $350-$400 an ounce less than two years ago as a gift. 

The Federal Reserve’s attack on bullion is an act of desperation that, when widely recognized, will doom its policy.

As I have explained previously, the orchestrated move against gold and silver is to protect the exchange value of the US dollar. If bullion were not a threat, the government would not be attacking it.

The Federal Reserve is creating $1 trillion new dollars per year, but the world is moving away from the use of the dollar for international payments and, thus, as reserve currency. The result is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. This means a falling exchange value of the dollar, domestic inflation from rising import prices, and a rising interest rate and collapsing bond, stock and real estate markets. 

The Federal Reserve’s orchestration against bullion cannot ultimately succeed. It is designed to gain time for the Federal Reserve to be able to continue financing the federal budget deficit by printing money and also to keep interest rates low and debt prices high in order to support the banks’ balance sheets.

When the Federal Reserve can no longer print due to dollar decline which printing would make worse, US bank deposits and pensions could be grabbed in order to finance the federal budget deficit for couple of more years. Anything to stave off the final catastrophe.
The manipulation of the bullion market is illegal, but as government is doing it the law will not be enforced.  

By its obvious and concerted attack on gold and silver, the US government could not give any clearer warning that trouble is approaching. The values of the dollar and of financial assets denominated in dollars are in doubt.

Those who believe in government and those who believe in deregulation will be proved equally wrong. The United States of America is past its zenith. As I predicted early in the 21st century, in 20 years the US will be a third world country. We are halfway there.
 

“土地流轉”會引發社會動盪嗎？

菲律賓為何失敗 日本緣何成功

楊洋 張庭賓

正確的方向加上良好的願望，未必會得到美好的結果。

     “土地流轉”這個2013年的重要變革突破口，已被剛剛發生在河南中牟的一件悲劇蒙上一層陰影。在土地承包沒達成書面協議的情況下，河南中牟縣西春崗村村民宋合義為保護自己承包的土地，被開發商鏟車碾死。肇事者乃河南孰億國際農業科技公司，它開發的所謂農業科技項目，佔地約1000多畝，以土地流轉的方式獲得，強迫農民以每畝800元的驚人廉價轉讓。某調查記者在當地看到，其中約有200畝的土地上已建有房屋等設施，還開設了對外營業的餐廳。

這一悲劇的發生，首先是因為違反了土地流轉規則​​中的兩個底線原則：1，不得強迫農民轉讓；2，不得改變土地性質。然而，更深層次的提問是，在土地流轉中，如何遏制資本的貪婪和官員的貪腐，若兩者狼狽為奸，難免對農民利益肆無忌憚地剝奪，甚至發生如此草菅人命的慘劇。

該事件再次提醒政府，儘管農業現代化、集約化經營是正確方向，並不天然地意味著現實操作都是合理的，結果必然是理想的。世界各國的經驗表明，放任自流的土地流轉必然導致嚴重的社會問題；成功的土地流轉，必須有明確的實施主體、嚴謹的操作紀律乃至嚴肅的法律保障。

從土地流轉的具體實施主體而言，主要有三種：一是農戶之間的直接流轉；二是農戶把土地流轉給合作組織或村集體；三是農戶或村集體把土地流轉給外部資本。即鼓勵和扶持城市資本下鄉，整合成片經營千家萬戶小農的土地。

當前，引起較大爭議的是第三種流轉形式。持異議者認為這裡潛伏著巨大的風險：1，城市資本擁有者下鄉圈地，在急功近利之下，更可能為搞房地產和別墅旅遊業；即使是搞農業，也多將糧食改為經濟作物，這對國家糧食安全不利；2，地方官員收受大資本的賄賂，利用政府權力逼迫小農以極為廉價的價格轉讓土地，激化官民矛盾；3，農民大規模離開土地且使用權喪失後，一旦出現城市就業危機，可能出現千萬農民工失業和無法返回家園局面，造成嚴重的社會問題。

菲律賓就是吞下了放任城市資本兼併小農經濟的苦果。菲律賓在60年代曾被輿論稱為“亞洲典範”，其現代化水平僅次於日本。但從60年代中期開始，菲律賓的經濟開始衰退、社會動盪和政局不穩。其中關鍵原因之一就是農業和農村現代化道路的失敗。

菲律賓的土地改革主要依靠資本的力量改造小農經濟，西方農業跨國公司和本國資本家控制了菲律賓的土地交易、農村金融保險、農產品加工、流通、倉儲和銷售等產業鏈環節以及技術服務和基礎設施等領域。農民被迫失去土地轉為資本家的“農業工人”。隨著農業技術進步，勞動力需求逐漸下降，大量的失地和失業農民湧進了城市。而城市提​​供不了這麼多的崗位，許多進城的“農民工”的失業問題轉化成社會問題。進而快速轉變成了政治問題。最後導致菲律賓社會出現嚴重兩極分化和衝突，政治出現嚴重腐敗和對抗，經濟完全受制於國外。拉美國家，如巴西、阿根廷也為大資本兼併土地付出沉重代價。專家把包括貧困化在內諸如以經濟危機、政權更迭和社會失範為特徵的整體性危機概括為“拉美現象”，拉美土地改革嚴重後果需引以為鑑。

巴西、阿根廷的土地壟斷性佔有都始於殖民地時期。兩國在獨立革命後，殖民地時期的大莊園制被繼承下來，高度集中的土地佔有製延續至今，當前巴西的土地集中率居世界第二。兩國在農村政策上長期向大地主傾斜，廣大農民的發展受到限制。與此同時，政府實施重工輕農政策，加上農業機械化對勞動力的“擠出”效應，大量農民被迫湧入城市成為邊緣化的城市群體。而隨著大量農民流入城市，土地的集中程度進一步加劇。

這就導致了嚴重的貧困化問題。主要表現有三：1，貧困人口眾多：巴西2005年全國貧困人口占總人口的22.7%，阿根廷2002年全國有57%的人生活在貧困線以下；2，貧富差距懸殊：巴西2004年佔就業人數10%高薪階層的月平均收入是佔約50%的低薪階層月平均收入的15倍，阿根廷2005年最富有階層與最貧窮階層的收入比為31∶1； 3，城市貧民窟問題嚴重：巴西2000年全國有3905個貧民窟，如里約熱內盧市600多萬人，其中有100多萬人住在貧民窟裡。無地農民流入城市，難以謀生，導致社會治安混亂，引起社會動盪。

與菲律賓、拉美相反，日本和韓國土地改革獲得了成功，避免了嚴重社會分化和社會動蕩的問題，他們走的是“有組織的現代小農”道路。日本式的土地流轉雖然放寬土地所有權流轉限制，提倡土地轉讓和相對集中。尤其是1962年《農業草本法》修正案允許離開村莊的農民將其土地委託給“小規模的農業合作社”代耕。但有兩個明確規定：一是股份公司不得購買農地；二是這些小規模的合作社也必須像自耕農家庭農場那樣進行農業生產。 “股份公司不得購買農地限制了資本兼併農地；而“小規模的合作社（或成立公司）必須像自耕農生產”保證了糧食種植規模，而不去種植其他經濟作物。

此後，日本再鼓勵農地所有權和使用權（經營權）的分離。 1980年，日本政府頒布了《農地利用增進法》，其主要內容是：以土地租佃為中心，促進土地經營權流動；以地域為單位，促進農地的集中聯片經營和共同基礎設施的建設；以農協為主，幫助“核心農戶”和生產合作組織妥善經營農戶出租和委託作業的耕地；政府資助合作農業組織，使這些組織有能力購買大型農用機械，實現規模經營。

所以，“日本模式”就是扶持小農組織——建立以金融合作為核心的綜合農業協會，變傳統小農為“有組織的現代小農”，由“有組織的現代小農”主導了農業和農村現代化，農業協會也保護了農民的利益。在農業和農村現代化的過程中，農地轉移只許在農民之間進行；農村勞動力轉移更是自願的，進城的農民和城市居民都同等享受國民待遇；農民收入和城市居民收入是基本相當的。


韓國和我國台灣以日本為師，也是限制大資本下鄉，也是“組織化的現代小農”主導農業現代化。在基本實現了在農業和農村現代化後，才有限制地准許資本的下鄉。韓國和我國台灣地區的農業現代化也很成功。

以史為鑑，中國需要深刻吸取菲律賓、巴西和阿根廷的教訓；深入學習日本、韓國等地的經驗，土地流轉的主體，應該是“種糧大戶”和“農村合作社”，而不是放任城市資本乃至外資肆意兼併土地。這才能從源頭保護農民的合法利益，避免嚴重的貧富分化和大規模的城市盲流；從根本上避免基層官員的權力尋租和官民矛盾的激化；進而實現農業現代化、工業化和城鎮化的良性循環。  


（張庭賓為中華元智庫創辦人，楊洋為中華元智庫資深研究員，聯繫郵箱ztb6666@sina.com）






      

比特幣的前世今生：自由與黑暗的氣質並存（上）

FT的Izabella Kaminska撰文敘述了近期成為市場熱點的比特幣的故事：

最近比特幣幣值對歐元和美元都在飆升，這也引發了人們的關注。人們可能不禁會問，比特幣是什麼？從哪裡來，又怎樣運轉？帶著這些問題，讓我們來看看比特幣的前世今生。

2009年在一個論壇上，一個化名為中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)的網絡ID發帖說他發明了一種的基於全新算法的貨幣，這就是比特幣的誕生。比特幣的設計初衷就是對抗現有的貨幣體系，它完全的去中心化，沒有中央銀行進行干涉，也就是說當比特幣的“金融體系“出現崩潰的時候，不會有伯南克一樣的人出來救市。

自由市場的本性還不足以俘獲了追隨者。歷史上也有很多建立一套獨立與現有貨幣體系的貨幣的嘗試，但是他們都無法克服幣值的劇烈波動以及缺少在整個市場出現波動時的像央行這樣的自穩器等先天的缺陷，折戟沉沙也成了自然而然的命運。

但是比特幣的追隨者們宣稱，比特幣的獨特之處正是對整個系統的天才般的設計。

在此我們不准備詳解只有天才極客才看得懂的具體算法。但是總的來說，我們可以把獲取比特幣的方式歸結為兩種。

第一種的方式就是”挖“比特幣，需要用計算機依照算法進行大量的運算來”挖出“比特幣，這聽起來很像是我們的祖先在挖黃金的感覺。

而且已經挖出來的比特幣越多，挖出新的比特幣的時間就會越長，據說如果想再挖出新的比特幣，在未來可能要花上計算機數年的時間。當然另外一種獲得比特幣的方式要簡單很多，就是在次級市場直接購買比特幣，目前比特幣已經可以和世界上的絕大多數貨幣直接兌換。可能這也是它能夠在世界範圍內引發強烈關注的原因。

同時為了應對比特幣體系內可能出現的非法的盜取與復制，這裡面可能就引入了一些博弈論的機制。也就是說任何盜取和非法複製的行為都是在衝擊比特幣體系的公信力，而公信力對於這樣一個完全建立在對這套機制的信任的基礎上的貨幣體係而言，重要性無與倫比。公信力的喪失會讓這個貨幣市場瞬間大起大落。所以說以非法行為本身會使黑客費力盜取的價值由於其自身的行為變得一文不值。

但並不是說這類事情不會發生，2011年由於一次性失竊了價值50萬美元的比特幣，隨後又出現了一次黑客事件捲入金額達到900萬美元，這次事件造成的恐慌也使得比特幣從事件前1比特幣兌換17美元到事件後下跌到1比特幣兌換1美分。

比特幣的使用範圍現在也越來越廣泛，可在越來越多的平台上完成購物和投資等等事情。同時比特幣也會遇到實體金融機構都會遇到的問題，所以後來，第三方機構的介入幫助增加了其安全性。

但是對於那些熱衷於幣值穩定的人而言，比特幣絕不是什麼好選擇。比特幣的最早盛行於一個叫做絲綢之路的黑市交易網站，因為比特幣完美的切合了他們匿名和無法追踪，交易無法取消等訴求。

所以比特幣與生俱來的黑暗氣質和神秘色彩讓很多人對其感到恐懼。
 未完待續

上海再添兩確診 高永文：港隨時爆H7N9

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H7N9隨時「殺到」！內地H7N9禽流感病毒昨再新增兩宗確診個案，兩名男患者都來自上海，令內地累計有十八人感染，當中六人死亡。鑑於疫情持續，上 海及南京昨起暫停活禽買賣，而浙江杭州一名患者，曾到街市購買並食用過鵪鶉，當地檢疫部門在該街市的鵪鶉樣本中，檢出N7H9病毒。本港食物及缳生局局長 高永文坦言，市民要有心理準備，H7N9病毒會在本港爆發。

        新確診的兩名男病人均來自上海市，正接受搶救。其中一名患者 是七十四歲姓周的農民，上月二十八日發病，出現乏力、氣促及發燒等病徵，三日後到上海奉賢區中醫醫院求診，前天轉入華東醫院，診斷為重症肺炎；另一名是六 十六歲姓楊的退休人士，上月二十九日出現畏寒不適症狀，上周二前往第十人民醫院，診斷為急性上呼吸道感染，前日出現咳嗽及發燒，再到同一醫院求醫，診斷為 左下肺炎，情況穩定。

        而南京市政府則表示，至今在南京確診的五宗人類感染H7N9禽流感個案中，全部患者情況仍然危殆，至於一百零四名與患者有密接觸者，則未有出現發燒或呼吸道徵狀，其中六十四人已解除醫學觀察。

        患者多曾接觸禽鳥

        大 部份H7N9患者在發病前曾接觸禽鳥，據浙江省缳生廳消息，杭州第二宗H7N9禽流感病例病發前，在上城區濱盛農副產品商行活禽攤檔，購買並食用過鵪鶉， 被當局認為是其發病的高危因素。而上海再有兩個街市的雞隻樣本被驗出帶有H7N9病毒，有雞販為安全起見，自行宰殺檔口的活雞。有見及此，上海及南京市決 定由昨日起，全市暫停活禽交易，以及關閉市內所有活禽交易市場。

        內地疫情來勢洶洶，本港食物及缳生局局長高永文昨稱，不 能排除本港會出現家禽或人類感染個案，呼籲市民加強注意個人缳生。由於前線醫護人手不足，政府的預防策略要做到及早辨認懷疑病例、進行隔離及進行快速測 試，以防止本港出現大爆發。他稱，將增派人手在口岸抽查入境旅客，進行體溫測試。

        另外，本港與廣東的專家將舉行會議，研究對大量家禽抽查H7病毒的技術及標準工作，以便本周開始對入口的家禽及本地家禽，進行病毒快速測試。若發現家禽感染，會暫停活禽入口，並進行撲殺。

        特首梁振英亦對疫情表示關注，已要求本港駐內地經貿辦處，密切關注所屬地區的H7N9疫情，強調本港有足夠防疫、抗疫物品，包括口罩及抗流感藥，呼籲市民毋須搶購。署理行政長官林鄭月娥稱，當局在發放訊息疫情上會公開和透明，減少市民的恐慌。