James Rickards, author of Currency Wars, is calling for $7,000 gold!
2012年1月21日星期六
Silver’s 2011 Big Move – Was It The End Or The Beginning?
Silver Price Analysis: Silver Likely To Make Explosive Move
The price of a good often behaves in a similar manner at or around the same kind of milestone. An example of such a milestone could be a significant top. Price often forms a similar type of pattern at different significant tops – different in terms of time of occurrence. This is a reflection of how market participants themselves often behave in a similar manner when faced with the same kind of situation. This of course makes perfect sense, since it is normal, for example, to rest after you have been extremely busy for a while. For most people, this is true whether it was yesterday, or in 20 years.
In the current silver market, there are some similarities as compared with the 1970s. There are also things that are much different today, in the economic landscape, compared with that of the 1970s. One of the significant things that is different now is the fact that debt levels, relative to GDP, are extremely high compared with the seventies.
In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons why we are likely to have a massive Depression this time around.
Here, I would like to illustrate how the silver price behaves in a similar manner, today, compared with the 1970s. Below is a graphic that compares the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com):
I chose these timeframes because price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around these periods. I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.
Note how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.
Note that in the 70s and in the current chart, price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line. Note that, currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level.
The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50).
The flag pattern formed currently is significantly bigger (in price movement) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.
The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.
The above comparison is also supported by a comparison I did for gold and silver, in a previous article.
Find me also at: picturegoldandsilver – gold and silver analysis contained in one image/picture
Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart (from 2007 to today), to the gold chart (from 2008 to 2010) (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):
The top chart is for gold and the bottom is for silver. I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles, out of which price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.
The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months). The consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles).
Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point 0 on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.
Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold’s movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs.
The kind of movement we’ve seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver’s big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).
The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level.
Below, is a video that illustrates the principle discussed here:
http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com
The price of a good often behaves in a similar manner at or around the same kind of milestone. An example of such a milestone could be a significant top. Price often forms a similar type of pattern at different significant tops – different in terms of time of occurrence. This is a reflection of how market participants themselves often behave in a similar manner when faced with the same kind of situation. This of course makes perfect sense, since it is normal, for example, to rest after you have been extremely busy for a while. For most people, this is true whether it was yesterday, or in 20 years.
In the current silver market, there are some similarities as compared with the 1970s. There are also things that are much different today, in the economic landscape, compared with that of the 1970s. One of the significant things that is different now is the fact that debt levels, relative to GDP, are extremely high compared with the seventies.
In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons why we are likely to have a massive Depression this time around.
Here, I would like to illustrate how the silver price behaves in a similar manner, today, compared with the 1970s. Below is a graphic that compares the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com):
I chose these timeframes because price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around these periods. I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.
Note how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.
Note that in the 70s and in the current chart, price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line. Note that, currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level.
The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50).
The flag pattern formed currently is significantly bigger (in price movement) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.
The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.
The above comparison is also supported by a comparison I did for gold and silver, in a previous article.
Find me also at: picturegoldandsilver – gold and silver analysis contained in one image/picture
Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart (from 2007 to today), to the gold chart (from 2008 to 2010) (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):
The top chart is for gold and the bottom is for silver. I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles, out of which price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.
The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months). The consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles).
Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point 0 on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.
Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold’s movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs.
The kind of movement we’ve seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver’s big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).
The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level.
Below, is a video that illustrates the principle discussed here:
http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com
歐元狂跌 LVMH、歷峰等精品業者樂開懷
分析師估計歐元匯率下跌 1%，精品業的稅前獲益平均就可提高 1.3%- 1.5%。
彭博社》周五（20日）報導，歐元匯率跌跌不休，然而對歐洲奢侈品業者來說，這正是衝刺業績與獲利的大好時機。
投資機構CA Cheuvreux分析師Thomas Mesmin表示，若歐元持續下滑，全球前兩大精品集團LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton（MC-FR）與歷峰集團（Cie. Financiere Richemont）（CFR-CH）就有可能享有極大獲益。
瑞銀（UBS）周二下調歐元兌美元目標匯價，從之前的 1.35 美元下調至 1.15 美元，因歐債危機再度惡化。
Mesmin估算，只要歐元匯率下跌 1%，精品業的稅前獲益平均就可提高 1.3%- 1.5%。
他說，「這對奢侈品廠商相當有助益，因為它們大部分營收都來自歐洲以外的市場，但是成本卻大多用歐元、瑞士法郎或英鎊計價」。
Mesmin更明確指出，擁有卡地亞（Cartier）、萬寶龍（Montblanc）等知名品牌的歷峰可說是最佳歐元概念股，因為該集團 65% 營收均非歐元計價，但成本是以歐元計算而且股價單位是瑞士法郎。
歷峰執行長Johann Rupert上周表示，以實質持續匯率計算，去年最後一季營收年增率高達 24%，並估計截至今年 3 月底的會計年度，公司營業利益「將明顯優於去年」。
意大利皮件製造商Salvatore Ferragamo SpA執行長Michele Norsa日前也表示，歐元走弱確實能提昇品牌利潤與競爭力。
整體而言，從 2008 年 11 月中旬迄今，彭博歐洲精品指數（Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index）已上揚 357% ，但同時期歐洲600 指數（Stoxx Europe 600 Index）僅增加 27%。
彭博社》周五（20日）報導，歐元匯率跌跌不休，然而對歐洲奢侈品業者來說，這正是衝刺業績與獲利的大好時機。
投資機構CA Cheuvreux分析師Thomas Mesmin表示，若歐元持續下滑，全球前兩大精品集團LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton（MC-FR）與歷峰集團（Cie. Financiere Richemont）（CFR-CH）就有可能享有極大獲益。
瑞銀（UBS）周二下調歐元兌美元目標匯價，從之前的 1.35 美元下調至 1.15 美元，因歐債危機再度惡化。
Mesmin估算，只要歐元匯率下跌 1%，精品業的稅前獲益平均就可提高 1.3%- 1.5%。
他說，「這對奢侈品廠商相當有助益，因為它們大部分營收都來自歐洲以外的市場，但是成本卻大多用歐元、瑞士法郎或英鎊計價」。
Mesmin更明確指出，擁有卡地亞（Cartier）、萬寶龍（Montblanc）等知名品牌的歷峰可說是最佳歐元概念股，因為該集團 65% 營收均非歐元計價，但成本是以歐元計算而且股價單位是瑞士法郎。
歷峰執行長Johann Rupert上周表示，以實質持續匯率計算，去年最後一季營收年增率高達 24%，並估計截至今年 3 月底的會計年度，公司營業利益「將明顯優於去年」。
意大利皮件製造商Salvatore Ferragamo SpA執行長Michele Norsa日前也表示，歐元走弱確實能提昇品牌利潤與競爭力。
整體而言，從 2008 年 11 月中旬迄今，彭博歐洲精品指數（Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index）已上揚 357% ，但同時期歐洲600 指數（Stoxx Europe 600 Index）僅增加 27%。
2012黃金及白銀展望
最近我們寫了關於貴金屬股票的分析評論。我們認為貴金屬股票已經形成了多年的底部，2012年及2013年有望反彈。其中一部分原因是因為黃金和白銀的走勢顯示該兩種貴金屬的重要底部已經形成，並且正在準備反彈。我們預計這兩種金屬會出現緩慢但是漸進的反彈。
最近黃金的底部與2006年我們看到的類似。首先給大家重新回顧一下2006年的底部。注意之前的多頭旗形（藍色）、雙重底部模式以及300天移動均線處發生的最終底部。隨後我們看到金價出現了5個月的反彈，收復了之前超過75%的跌幅。
雖然銀價修正了超過40%，但是我們認為其在26美元處形成了一個主要的底部，這也形成了一個重要的支撐位。首先，注意一下600天移動均線，其在2007年、2009年年末、2010年和最近提供了重要的支撐。第二，26美元既是今年1月份的底部也是去年9月底的底部。第三，在1980年大跌後，25美元是主要的反彈高點，並且也是最近牛市的重要價格點。最後，目前牛市的50%回撤點位於26美元處。知道了這些後，我還需要對最近觸及26美元底部的重要性進一步說明嗎？
此外，目前COT（交易商持倉報告）的結構對金銀多頭很有支撐性。顯然，那些泡沫論者並未查閱最新的COT報告。我懷疑他們中有很多人甚至不了解這種報告。 (來源：SentimenTrader.com)
首先，我們來看看黃金。注意，商業空頭頭寸與投機性多頭頭寸處在我們上次於2009年初看到的水平。
白銀的COT結構更加鼓舞人心。最近，白銀市場的商業淨空頭頭寸觸及了8年低點（請注意看圖表縱軸上的讀數）。同時，投機性多頭部位也處在8年低點，並且小型交易商多頭部位也處在整個牛市中的最低水平。
SentimenTrader.com提供的民意調查還顯示，58%的人看好黃金，而有39%的人看好白銀。然而，就在幾週之前，這些數字還處在數年低位。我想問問你，倘若金銀市場充斥著“泡沫”，那麼在其價格見頂後的幾個月，公眾是否已經全部獲利了結並且變得悲觀？不。事實上，公眾依然樂觀，並且在市場最初的見頂後繼續買入。
簡單地說，在當前的情況下，一個理智的人僅可以得出兩種結論。要么貴金屬的牛市已經結束並且一個小的“神經性反彈”正在到來；要么該牛市已經觸及了一個重要的底部。我們認為後一種結論更有可能。牛市遠未結束的原因很明顯。透過圖表，我們發現黃金與白銀極有可能已經觸及了一個重要的底部。
儘管如此，黃金與白銀的技術面確實遭受了損害，而我們只能期待它們逐漸“復原”。我們認為，金市當前的觸底與2006年的觸底情況類似。當時，黃金穩紮穩打地收復了失地，但它依然需要9個月才能讓市場啟動一輪創造新高的飆漲行情。此外，在那次，雖然白銀後來反彈回到了先前的高點，但它也總共花了大約11個月才又開始了一輪創造新高的大漲行情。從本質上看，我們預計這些市場在2012年會處於盤整態勢中。然而，碰巧的是，我們正從一個按種種跡象來看或是主要低點的低位開始這一盤整旅程。那些耐性好的人現在應該買入實物金銀 . 與此同時，那些想要資本快速增值的人應該考慮礦業股。
http://www.kitco.cn/
最近黃金的底部與2006年我們看到的類似。首先給大家重新回顧一下2006年的底部。注意之前的多頭旗形（藍色）、雙重底部模式以及300天移動均線處發生的最終底部。隨後我們看到金價出現了5個月的反彈，收復了之前超過75%的跌幅。
此外，目前COT（交易商持倉報告）的結構對金銀多頭很有支撐性。顯然，那些泡沫論者並未查閱最新的COT報告。我懷疑他們中有很多人甚至不了解這種報告。 (來源：SentimenTrader.com)
首先，我們來看看黃金。注意，商業空頭頭寸與投機性多頭頭寸處在我們上次於2009年初看到的水平。
白銀的COT結構更加鼓舞人心。最近，白銀市場的商業淨空頭頭寸觸及了8年低點（請注意看圖表縱軸上的讀數）。同時，投機性多頭部位也處在8年低點，並且小型交易商多頭部位也處在整個牛市中的最低水平。
SentimenTrader.com提供的民意調查還顯示，58%的人看好黃金，而有39%的人看好白銀。然而，就在幾週之前，這些數字還處在數年低位。我想問問你，倘若金銀市場充斥著“泡沫”，那麼在其價格見頂後的幾個月，公眾是否已經全部獲利了結並且變得悲觀？不。事實上，公眾依然樂觀，並且在市場最初的見頂後繼續買入。
簡單地說，在當前的情況下，一個理智的人僅可以得出兩種結論。要么貴金屬的牛市已經結束並且一個小的“神經性反彈”正在到來；要么該牛市已經觸及了一個重要的底部。我們認為後一種結論更有可能。牛市遠未結束的原因很明顯。透過圖表，我們發現黃金與白銀極有可能已經觸及了一個重要的底部。
儘管如此，黃金與白銀的技術面確實遭受了損害，而我們只能期待它們逐漸“復原”。我們認為，金市當前的觸底與2006年的觸底情況類似。當時，黃金穩紮穩打地收復了失地，但它依然需要9個月才能讓市場啟動一輪創造新高的飆漲行情。此外，在那次，雖然白銀後來反彈回到了先前的高點，但它也總共花了大約11個月才又開始了一輪創造新高的大漲行情。從本質上看，我們預計這些市場在2012年會處於盤整態勢中。然而，碰巧的是，我們正從一個按種種跡象來看或是主要低點的低位開始這一盤整旅程。那些耐性好的人現在應該買入實物金銀 . 與此同時，那些想要資本快速增值的人應該考慮礦業股。
http://www.kitco.cn/
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