2011年10月1日星期六

金價未整完

羅耕
8月11日「金價調整」一文曾指出,金價將於9月初起大調整。結果,金價於9月6日過1921美元後,低見1532美元,跌幅剛逾兩成,符合牛市調整幅度。那整完未呢?
更新(而毋須修改)七季前後的現貨金價拼圖顯示,答案是「未」的。以圖論圖,調整似乎尚有個餘月行,立冬前後方才完畢。至於金價終極頂部,現修正至3000以上,時為2013年中。 
固然,未來金價不會無了期地重複過往七季,總有一天是真見頂的。
那9月6日會否已是真見頂的一日?有機會,但不大。各國大力科水但從未收水,就算亞太樓價大跌製造通縮,也非今年內的事。看來升多一浪更急的機會稍大。


銀價趨窄幅

羅耕

6月9、10日曾刊「銀牛就此玩完? 」及「銀牛未有耐玩完! 」兩文,分別以31及37年前後的銀價拼圖,前者預示銀市見頂玩完,後者則預料2017年才見400美元。
大上落過後今更新拼圖,37年前後的似跑出,因另一幅已見「走位」。果如是者,未來三年銀價將會好悶。然而,雖然以收市價計上落不出十元八塊(30至42美元),但近年游資的確過剩,一剎那的高低價位卻可殺掉不少孖展倉。故還是低槓桿為上。 
何以銀不如金般持續向上?其一原因是白銀的經濟因素較黃金強;如今衰退已現,銀固跑輸,一如銅跑輸銀。另一因是通脹要2017年方才見頂,屆時銀才後來居上。

天與不取,必受其咎

http://10241084.blog.hexun.com/68786750_d.html

一句話,大量進貨的時候到了。
兩句話,雖然此時是相對低位,不排除主流的技術派再砸出一個C浪來。
三句話,以盎司而非美元結算,資金梯次配置,長期投資。
下面上圖,有圖有真相。初次接觸COT報告的,去看前​​面幾篇文章對各種術語的解釋。
CFTC在今年出了分項的COT報告,我們先分析這個。而後用傳統的COT報告將現在和08年去槓桿之時作對比。



                                  9月27日的分項COT報告——silver
先看白銀。 9月27日報告的,正是白銀跌倒25~26然後反彈到33這段的情況。一貫先知先覺,有關係有後台的,以*摩*通為代表的SD, 偉大光明正確的開始反手做多白銀。即SD net short在9月27日的報告中變為負值。且其做多數量佔總持倉興趣的比重,超過了今年6月28日的數據,即現在是今年以來SD最為看好白銀的時刻,是傳統白銀空頭主力最不看好繼續做空的​​時刻。反觀多頭的MM,淨做多數量為今年以來的最低點,而天然的空頭——白銀生產商,做空意願也降到接近5月初的低位。
天然空頭和JPM都不願意做空甚至反手了,數量之大,創下今年之最,你還等什麼?想和08年比嗎?那接著看。




                                 9月27日COT報告——silver

                                 2008去槓桿化之時的 COT報告

08年的時候沒有分項COT報告,因此我們比較傳統的COT報告數據。這裡只看3項,除了open interest 創新低表明人氣低迷,正是抄底時機外,commercial net short/OI 和total net short / OI. 一般來講,當這2個數值非常低的時候,就是底部了具體原因不再累述,看前面的文章或者直接看數據和時間,在自己回去對照價格圖表一查便知。
08年價格極低時,commercial net short/OI在大概0.13~0.19,total net short/ OI是0.07左右。而今,前值在0.1928,已經跌破0.2(一般低於0.2就是局部底了)。而後值已經創下新低,目前是0.066.考慮到這是本週二的數據,如果下週價格繼續穩中有降,上漲無力,則跌破30後,對應的COT報告只會變得更加吸引人,即這2項指數會更低。抄底實物就在當下。
再看黃金。 9月27日的分項報告,天然生產商同樣大幅減少空頭,191261減少到168334.而傳統多頭MM更是多殺多,淨多單從160322減少到129502,相反,價格下跌時,以JPM為代表的SD並沒有繼續追空,而是見好就收,大量平掉空單。 SD的淨空量從60257減少到31418,幾乎減半。各項百分比指數,也幾乎都創出新低。加上最近持倉興趣連續下降,照此速度,下週OI就會降到今年新低。黃金明顯也是相對低位,只是相比白銀而言,還比較強勢,還不是那麼慘的低位。


                              9月27日分项COT报告——gold

同樣比較08年去槓桿化之時的情況,可以看出,黃金目前相比08年,還不算低。 commercial net short/OI還在0.2以上,net short /OI 也比08年高。這是因為黃金不是工業金屬,"二次衰退對黃金是利空"在邏輯上站不住腳。

黃金自09年1月份以來,在日線圖和周線圖上,收盤價還從未跌破過150日均線和30週週線。即使這次日線圖下影線一度刺穿,也無傷大雅。至於200日均線,技術派的牛熊分界線,自09年1月底以來,還從未觸碰過。但每次到200日均線上下2%~3%的區間內,其後必然是一波主升浪。這次會例外嗎?不知道。但我知道的是,一顆歷經多年風雨的樹會比一顆新樹有更大的概率活下去。即使出現C浪,跌破200日均線,那隻是給你更大的折扣而已。紙面價格,白銀撐死到20,黃金到1450,但對於實物,一要擔心是否斷貨的危險,二要小心實物溢價暴漲。 08年的681,白銀實物溢價50~100%還經常沒貨,8.5的紙面價格,kitco北美賣14塊還經常缺貨下不了單。黃金當時的實物溢價也有10%~20%,個別幣種更高。大家自求多福。 

最後,買實物不是哪裡都可以都無所謂的。想什麼黃金ATM機這種噱頭,還是少碰為妙。 dealer的利潤,機器的成本,你都要出血的。 

 

金銀幣與其他收藏品對比有何優勢



收藏,作為一種愛好或投資行為,如今已經成為了熱門話題。隨著金銀價格的節節攀升,金銀幣成為了一種新興的投資收藏品。金銀幣與其他收藏品有哪些不同,自身又有哪些特點呢?記者為此事採訪了中國金幣特許零售商——山東萬格實業有限公司的畢健總經理。
記者:畢總您好,收藏投資金銀幣,很多品種的價格比前幾年上漲了幾倍甚至十幾倍,請問是什麼原因?
  畢健:主要有三點吧。第一點,老百姓錢多了。金銀幣是由貴金屬製作,本身的價格就很高,早期的金銀幣主要銷往國外,因為國內的消費者沒那麼多錢購買。隨著國內的消費者收入不斷的提高,他們收藏投資金銀幣的能力也就提高了,收藏投資金銀幣的人數大幅增加;第二點就是​​金銀價格的大幅攀升。不能否認,金銀幣成為一種新興的投資品種與國際金銀價格的大幅攀升有直接的關係。在經濟危機的時期,金銀幣的投資就是金銀投資的一種,是財富避險保值的最好手段。第三點就是金銀幣自身的一些特點及優勢促成的了。
記者:金銀幣自身有哪一些特點及優勢呢?
畢健:中國現代金銀幣是由中國人民銀行發行,發行單位權威,由於是中國人民銀行發行,對它的題材、圖案設計、鑄造工藝、貴金屬成色標準要求極高,發行量少,屬於典型的當代官窯,與其它的收藏品比有明顯的優勢;中國現代金銀幣由中國金幣總公司總經銷,只要是在正規的中國金幣特許零售商處購買,就不會有贗品的困擾。不會像投資其他的收藏品要交學費,買到贗品。中國現代金銀幣具有商品和貨幣的雙重屬性,俗話說“盛世收藏、亂世黃金” ,金銀幣在盛世之時是收藏品,由於發行權威、世存量少、工藝精美,隨著收藏的人群擴大,價格自然是連年攀升。而且金銀幣還具有易於保存的特性。其它的收藏品,不論是紙質的、木製的、瓷質的、玉質的,都要小心呵護、保養,不然會很容易損壞。而金銀幣由於其物理特性,不易氧化,收藏保養都十分便易。像現在經濟危機時期,通貨膨脹嚴重,金銀幣的貨幣又得到了很好地體現,金銀是天然的貨幣,是財富避險保值的最好手段。我認為,金銀幣的這些特點是其現在以至將來成為投資收藏絕佳品種的必然條件。

世界黃金協會:歐洲央行停售黃金


截至2011年9月26日,第三期《央行售金協議》(CBGA3)已期滿兩年。簽署該協定的歐洲各國央行本年度總計售出黃金1.1公噸,這是自1999年簽署該協議以來最低的年度銷售量。根據現行協定,協議國每年總共可出售400公噸黃金。
在本期協議生效的第一年,歐洲各協議國均對售金表現出遲疑態度,儘管上限設在400公噸,但實際出售量卻僅為7.1公噸。在本期協議的過去一年中,黃金銷售總量達到53.3公噸,其中額外售出的52.2公噸來源於國際貨幣基金組織有限的黃金銷售計劃。國際貨幣基金組織已於2010年12月完成了該黃金銷售計劃。


政府事務總監娜塔莉•鄧普斯特(Natalie Dempster)表示:
“自金融危機爆發以來,歐洲央行的售金意願已經消弭殆盡。面對緊張的經濟局勢和動蕩的金融市場,央行亟需穩定其資金儲備,而黃金恰恰能發揮這一作用。新興市場央行在過去兩年間大量增持黃金的舉動也充分錶明了這一點。總體而言,央行目前是大量買入的黃金淨買家,並重新評估了其儲備資產管理政策,我們預期央行在可預見的未來繼續保持這一勢頭。”


 

Want Silver? Too Bad...

銀價不合理大跌,美國鑄幣商停止生產部份銀幣,想買都買唔到,香港真係好,點跌都有得買

幣商提議成立一種新的訂價方式,防止銀價大波動

Posted by Brittany Stepniak - Friday, September 30th, 2011

As silver prices plummet, the mint has halted production – waiting for a price-fix. 
Take a look at the 30-Day Silver chart to see just how sharply it has fallen since September 21:


Gold and silver prices have drastically tumbled this week. Fortunately for gold traders, there have been no major changes or production suspensions thus far in golden U.S. Mint products.
It's not quite the same story for silver traders...
As of Monday, September 26 2011, the Mint decided to temporarily suspend silver coin sales. For the time being they are not selling a majority of the collector-silver coins including:
  • U.S. Mint Silver Proof set for 2010 and 2011
  • 2011 Gettysburg National Military Park America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin
  • 2010 Mount Hood National Forest America the Beautiful Fiver Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin
  • 2011 America Eagle Silver Proof coin
  • 2010 and 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Proof Set
The decision was in response to silver prices dipping all the way down to $28.16 per ounce on Monday. This was just shortly after the 2011 American Eagle Silver Unciruclated coin debuted on September 15. Between that date and September 19, there were 184,967 orders for the coins.
With the unexpectedly low silver price decline, the Mint will, most-likely, want to change its product pricing before listing the aboved noted silver items as "available" again.
The pre-suspension price of the one ounce 2011 Uncirculated American Silver Eagles was $60.45. If the Mint chooses to change its product pricing, the new prices will probably be posted in the Federal Register before they go into effect.
Although the price of gold has also plummeted, no changes or sales suspensions have thus far occurred in other U.S. Mint products such as the American Gold Eagles. In August the Mint introduced a new pricing grid methodology, based primarily on the London Fix weekly average. This methodology allows the Mint to change the prices of gold products as often as weekly to better reflect the costs of gold for these coins. Numismatic gold production and prices are re-evaluated and adjusted as needed every Wednesday.
In total, the Mint has listed eight of their product packages as “unavailable.” It is uncertain when they will re-list them, but interested investors can expect to wait for a price-fix. New prices are likely to be posted in the Federal Register before the Mint actually puts the new silver prices into circulation with their products.
As far as silver prices in the general markets go, many analysts anticipate a slight rebound today after yesterday's selloff.
 *Indented excerpts from Mineweb.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=136300&sn=Detail&pid=102055 

Plan To Return America To the Gold Standard Set To Be Offered at Washington

Plan To Return America To the Gold Standard Set To Be Offered at Washington

 http://www.nysun.com

Lehrman, One-Time Member of Reagan-Era Gold Commission, Foresees Five-Year Transition
By SETH LIPSKY, Special to the Sun | September 26, 2011

NEW YORK — The next big step in the gold standard debate is going to be taken next month at Washington, when one of the original members of the Reagan-era United States Gold Commission offers a five-step plan to return America to sound money.
The architect of the plan, Lewis Lehrman, a businessman and scholar, will present his program in an address October 5 at a conference in Washington on the how to return to a stable dollar. He will outline a five-step program to return America to a gold-backed currency within five years.
What is significant about the event is its aim of shifting the discussion to practical steps that could be taken to rescue the American monetary system. It comes as the value of the United States dollar has collapsed to record lows, sinking at one point this month to less than an 1,800th of an ounce of gold. The value of the dollar has recovered marginally in recent days, but still lurks below a 1,600th of an ounce of gold, a level that would have been nearly unimaginable — at least in policy terms — as recently as the start of President George W. Bush’s first term, when the dollar had a value of a 265th of an ounce of gold.
“The stand-pat defenders of today’s paper-dollar system turn back every argument in favor of the gold standard by claiming that there’s no practical way to re-establish it,” says the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, James Grant. “What Lehrman has done is to devise a practical and persuasive plan to do just that.” He predicts “the ball is now — or soon will be — in the paper-money court as it has not been for a long time.”
In recent months, a growing chorus of serious observers have started to speak in favor of the restoration of a link between the dollar and gold. Some of them have been establishment figures, such as the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, who in November last year startled the debate by issuing in the London Financial Times an op-ed piece suggesting there might be a role for gold in a reformed monetary system.
Since then a number of the nation’s most respected journalists — led most notably by Mr. Grant — have come out publicly for a return to the gold standard. Mr. Grant’s demarche came on the op-ed page of the New York Times. Several Republican candidates for president, ranging from Congressman Ron Paul to Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Governor Perry, among others, have signaled that they view that the restoration of a sound dollar as being a component of returning America to the path of economic growth and full employment.
Mr. Lehrman, however, is the first of the leading figures in the debate to step forward with a plan, which he is expected to lay out in the Washington conference on a stable dollar. The conference is being hosted by the Heritage Foundation think tank. Mr. Lehrman’s plan is elaborated on at length in a book his institute will publish next month called, “The True Gold Standard: A Monetary Reform Plan Without Official Reserve Currencies.”
Although Mr. Lehrman was once a member of the United States Gold Commission, the plan he will announce next month has no official status. But when Mr. Lehrman was with the Commission, he co-authored with Dr. Paul a famous dissent, which made the case for gold and has been widely consulted in the decades since the Commission majority made its recommendation to continue with a system of fiat money, which in turn, advocates of stable money argue, culminated in America’s current travail.
The first step Mr. Lehrman will speak of in Washington would be for America to announce the “unilateral resumption of the gold monetary standard” at “a date certain,” as Mr. Lehrman put it to earlier this month in a wire to The New York Sun. What Mr. Lehrman means is that the U.S. dollar would “be defined by law as a certain weight unit of gold” and the “Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the entire banking system” would be “obligated” to “maintain the gold value of the dollar.”
Mr. Lehrman foresees a transition in which, on the date that Congress authorizes the resumption of unrestricted convertibility between dollars and gold, Federal Reserve Bank notes and American dollar bank demand deposits would be “redeemable in gold on demand at the statutory gold parity.”

Step two in the Lehrman Plan would be the minting by the Treasury and authorized private mints of what Mr. Lehrman calls “legal tender gold coin in appropriate denominations, free of any and all taxation.” The taxation point is a key one. Currently, if the value of the dollar collapses while one is holding gold coins, one can be taxed when one spends those coins.
That the act of spending exposes one to a tax is a controversial feature of the current system of fiat money. So intense have been feelings on the point that a movement to remove state-level capital gains taxes on gold coins has already begun in the states. Utah was this year the first to formally take such a step.

The third step Mr. Lehrman will propose at Washington is an international monetary conference that would, as Mr. Lehrman sketches it, “to provide for the deliberate termination of the dollar-based official reserve currency system and the consolidation and refunding of foreign official dollar reserves.”
He reckons that the international agreement to be negotiated would “inaugurate the reformed international monetary system,” or what he calls the “multilateral currency convertibility to gold, without official reserve currencies.”

Step four would be the establishment by the conference of gold as “the sole means by which nations would settle residual balance of payments deficits.” The idea would be to designate gold, “in place of reserve currencies, as the sole official monetary reserve asset.” Once official foreign currency reserves were consolidated and refunded, Mr. Lehrman argues, “[s]table exchange rates would result.”

Finally, the fifth step would be that so-called “floating” and “pegged-undervalued exchange rates,” as Mr. Lehrman terms them, would go out of use, and the “reformed international monetary system would establish and uphold stable exchange rates and free and fair trade — based on the mutual convertibility to gold of major currencies.”
One headwind Mr. Lehrman’s plan might face is any sign that value is starting to flow back into the dollar. In recent days the value of the dollar has risen somewhat, though not by a large amount in percentage terms. If the trend continues, it is possible it could take some of the steam out of the movement for monetary reform.
This is one of the reasons momentum fell away from monetary reform at the start of the Reagan administration. Even while the Gold Commission was meeting, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board at the time, Paul Volcker, was putting in place the regime that defeat the great inflation into which the country had been plunged in the 1970s.
The conference in Washington, however, is pursuing a strategy designed to get past the question of which way the dollar is moving at any given moment to the question of what many believe to be the paramount principle, namely the stability of the dollar in terms of gold. That is, its usefulness as a measure of value. Mr. Lehrman stresses that a true gold standard is as effective in preventing deflation as it is against inflation, a point that may become central, if the value continues to flow into the dollar.