梵蒂岡呼籲世界中央銀行，一個世界貨幣

Vatican Calls for World Central Bank, One-World Currency 

 As if national central banks and fiat currencies run by the Illuminati and the banksters do not oppress the world's citizens enough.
The Vatican's true colors shine through- this is merely about consolidating ever more power over the world's masses.

 * Document also calls for "Central World Bank"
* Condemns "idolatry of the market"
* Says reform should start under U.N. auspices

VATICAN CITY, Oct 24 (Reuters) - - The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a "global public authority" and a "central world bank" to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises.
The document from the Vatican's Justice and Peace department should please the "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn.
"Towards Reforming the International Financial and Monetary Systems in the Context of a Global Public Authority," was at times very specific, calling, for example, for taxation measures on financial transactions.
"The economic and financial crisis which the world is going through calls everyone, individuals and peoples, to examine in depth the principles and the cultural and moral values at the basis of social coexistence," it said.
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牙齒當金使？

畢者推介
?准確押注美國次按爆煲者除了有「沽神」保爾森，還有對沖基金Hayman Capital創辦人巴斯。但與保爾森可一不可再的戰績不同，巴斯利用同一套計量模型，早已預見主權債務危機，押下重注賭希臘違約，並預言兵荒馬亂的時勢即將來臨。詳見B5頁研究部特寫。


在債務危機愈演愈烈的當下，人人對信用及違約風險轉差都怕怕，偏偏銀行卻視之為「收入」入賬，美國五大銀行上季錄得160億美元淨利潤，就有超過八成是此等「幻想利潤」，B16頁「LEX」論荒謬的會計制度。


10月24日，周一。個人並不愛讀克魯明(Paul Krugman)在《紐約時報》的專欄，政治經濟民生，什麼都是共和黨的錯，扣帽子從不手軟，「八股味」隔數條街也能嗅到。然而，諾貝爾評審委員會在2008年金融海嘯期間把經濟學獎頒給他，斷估不是為了赤裸裸地表揚幹預主義；至低限度，克魯明在評審眼中斤?十足，對經濟學有過一番建樹。以其功力，要為一種經濟現象賦予「理論生命」，毫無難度綽綽有餘。


9月初發現克魯明在《紐時》發表的一篇短文，講的是老畢甚感興趣的話題──黃金。入正題前，這位08年諾獎得主先來一段開場白：「在我身處的地方，現在是淩晨四時三十分。我毫無睡意精神奕奕，腦子里浮現的盡是金價……且慢，我聽到你在發牢騷。什麼，克魯明不可以滿腦子黃金嗎？」


從這段獨白可見，克魯明一邊心系黃金，另一邊卻非常在意讀者對他「想金」產生太多不必要的聯想，怕人誤會他忽然戀上這種凱恩斯口中的「蠻荒世界遺物」 ，是以自問自答，意圖跟「金甲蟲」劃清界線。




通縮論者借題發揮 

盎斯金價在千九美元水平乏力再上，近兩個月於千五至千七美元範圍整固【圖1】，有說對沖基金為應付贖回壓力大手沽金，有說黃金牛市開到荼?，從此進入易跌難升局面。然而，不容否認的是，過去十年金價浪高於浪，表現勝於大部分資產，作為凱派健將且一直堅信通縮威脅大於通脹的克魯明，「徹夜難眠」顯是為了替金價長升長有找一個符合其邏輯思維的「原因」。借題發揮？也許。聲東擊西？當然。


克魯明自稱「大大的通縮論者」(a big deflationista)，又說如果你相信「通脹論者」(inflationistas)這些年來提出過的種種警告，那麼閣下縱使不輸幹輸淨，賺少許多總是在所難免。等一等，黃金不是例外嗎？在克魯明看來，將通脹威脅與金價強勁劃上等號，完全捉錯用神；換句話說，金沒買錯，惟買金的原因不對。


這位諾獎得主認為，金價堅挺跟通縮世界非但不存在矛盾，兩者甚至相輔相成。試想像，現在有一批黃金，隨著時間推移，將逐步投放於現實世界的應用，例如牙科儀器，而使用速度──黃金的流量需求(每年以噸計)──將視乎黃金的實質(經通脹調整)價格。


經濟學上有所謂「窒息價格」(choke price)，即天然資源價格升至足以令流量需求(flow demand)降至零的水平，以此而論，人們持有(囤積)可耗盡(exhaustible)的資源，延遲資源在現實世界中的使用，原因只有一個，就是實質價格持續上升。撇除儲存成本，黃金的實質價格必須以相等或高於實質利率的速度上升，投者者和生產商才具備囤積黃金的誘因。


預期回報左右大局
那等於說，在克魯明眼中，通脹預期、貨幣貶值以至避險需求都不是金價上升的主因，黃金牛市的真正「推手」簡單得令人不敢置信，就是其他投資項目的預期回報全皆不濟，持有黃金機會成本大降，投資者以至生產商因此樂於將這種商品囤積起來。


類似的見解，許多人都提出過，只是由諾獎得主口中說出，分外擲地有聲而已。然而，克魯明似乎忽略了一點，就是他根據政府公布的數據以至抗通脹國債(TIPS)等以官方統計為本的指標衡量通脹，大大的忽略了「通脹派」壓根兒就不信任政府發表的通脹數字，否則持有TIPS便能確保回報不受通脹蠶蝕，「通脹派」又何必揸金？


港股大升，恒指收報18771點，較上周五漲746點，市場繼續憧憬歐債危機解決有望之外，匯豐與Markit Economics聯手進行的調查顯示，中國10月份采購經理指數(PMI)初值經季節性調整後達51.5，非但為五個月來的最高水平，且遠勝9月份的49.9。


不過，Markit同日發表的歐羅區PMI卻顯示，歐洲制造業依然處於50盛衰分界線以下，未脫萎縮之局【圖2】。中國出口需求有沒有持久力，還須多觀察一段時間。

王冠一財經專欄：生活質素 每況愈下

美國人嚮往的「美國夢」，是生活一代比一代改善，但過去十年，美國夢卻進入夢醒時份。相比起十年前，今日美國人的生活水平〔standard of living〕不進反退，用以量度生活質素指標之一的「痛苦指數」，更刷新了1983年伊朗革命美國經濟陷入衰退以來的新高。


「痛苦指數」是簡單的算術題，由失業率與通脹率相加而成。指數越高，代表生活水平越低。美國9月份失業率高企於9.1%，消費物價指數年率則由8月的3.8%升上3.9%，令「痛苦指數」高達13.0，較年初時的11.0，高出足足2點。


美國最新公佈的人口統計數字，亦為美國人生活於水深火熱增添證據。全國生活於貧窮線下的比率，由2009年的14.3%升上15.3%，而貧窮率高 於17%的州份，亦由2009年的5個，倍升至12個。生活於貧窮線以下、收入不足貧窮線一半的赤貧比率，亦持續攀升，由2009年的6.3%升至 6.8%。需要接受公共援助〔public assistance〕的人口於短短1年間暴增一成，由300萬上升至330萬，而接受公援的家庭比率亦由2.7%升至2.9%。


統計數字亦顯示，於過去1年，不論是貧窮人口或貧窮率，50州份無一下跌。貧窮率最高的州份為密西西比州，貧窮率高達22.4%，緊隨其後的，是新 墨西哥州的20.4%。貧窮率最低的是新罕布夏州〔New Hampshire〕，比率僅為8.3%，亦是唯一綠得單位數字的州份。


經歷過金融海嘯引起的大衰退〔Great Recession〕後，美國人的生活質素每況愈下，可支配收入〔disposable income〕於2008年春大衰退開始時觸頂，當時人均可支配收入為33,794美元，而2011年次季已跌至32,479美元，即是減少了1315美 元或4%，意味可用於購物消費、外出用膳及看電影的次數大幅減少。事實上，美國人生活水平的惡化速度，亦是1960年開始紀錄以來最快。


美國人平均生活質素下降，主要是收入不進反退。過去3年收入中位數下移了9.8%，不可謂不驚人。此外，樓股皆挫，亦產生財富萎縮效應。更重要的，當然是痛苦指數所顯示的失業率和通脹率雙雙上升。物價升幅凌厲，過去3年便蠶食了多達3.25%的購買力。


深入探討財富萎縮效應的話，數字顯示，美國人自2007年至今，身家合共蒸發了5.5萬億，比率高達8.6%，最大部份自然是物業價值下跌。樓價於 07年至今平均跌幅為22%，蒸發財富達4.7萬億。標普500指數亦較1999年下跌了17%，即使計入其間收取的股息，十年累積回報亦只有3.2%， 可說甚不理想。


由於經濟轉型，不少製造業職位均已一去不復返，工人被迫投身工資較少的服務業。學歷高人士亦無法覓得高薪工作，低學歷人士要脫貧，更是難比登天。「佔領華爾街」行動，便是美國國民對美國夢夢碎，無法再往上爬的大控訴。
王冠一
www.wongsir.com.hk

Stephen Leeb - China Will Send Gold & Silver to the Moon

With gold, silver, commodities and stocks moving sharply to the upside, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management.  When asked about the action in commodities, Leeb responded, “Commodity prices, it’s true, are below their all-time high.  But when you step back and look at it from a yearly perspective, the vast majority of commodities are averaging all-time high prices in 2011.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“As an example the average price for oil, copper, corn, silver and gold will be the highest prices ever on average for 2011.  That is not consistent with a lot of weakness in China.  China, in my opinion, seems to be doing pretty well.  We all know that China had an inflation problem, but it appears they have gotten that under control.

This is the thing that worries me, everyone talks about inflation and China coming apart, Eric, but no one seems to be talking about the fact that China is planning to spend half a trillion a year on new energy.  This includes hydro, wind, nuclear, you name it.

China has well over 50% of the solar industry and no doubt, as part of that strategy, has been accumulating massive amounts of silver and they will continue to do that.  This is one reason that silver is certainly headed to three digits. 

Another thing about China is they have no tax on gold bullion.  There is a tax on jewelry and numismatics but China does not tax gold bullion.  This means gold is already a de-facto currency in China....

“The implication for gold, given that it is becoming currency in China, given the fact that the Chinese government is doing everything they can to encourage their populace to own it, given that it is the only currency that has a chance of appreciating along with materials over the next three to five years, gold is just something that you’ve got to own.    

Gold is certainly going to be part of any future reserve currency basket, that and the Yuan.  I don’t think the dollar is going to make it (in the basket).  China remains an extraordinarily strong competitor.

We’re fighting a war with China and they are armed with bazookas, tanks and everything else and we have a rubber knife, that’s the situation.  Someone in our government has to wake up before it’s too late, if it’s not too late already.

As these commodities run up in price it’s going to be become ever more inflationary.  Commodities are going to become an even larger part of the economy as a whole.  Energy is already about 9% of the US economy.

We are already seeing inflation running close to 4%.  Producer prices, the last print there, was over 6%.  The trend going forward for inflation is going to be dramatically upward.  It’s deflationary for the economy because it’s taking money out of the pocket of the consumer.”

James Turk Report - Why Gold Will Go Above $11,000

By James Turk, Founder & Chairman of GoldMoney

Because gold is money, its value cannot be measured with the standard techniques used to evaluate investments.  Gold is not an investment because it does not produce any cash-flow.  It is a sterile asset.  Consequently, gold does not create wealth, nor for that matter, does any national currency create wealth.  Currency in all its forms – whether fiat or gold – is wealth, held in the form of deferred purchasing power.  This store of value function is one of any currency’s most important tasks.

So when the price of gold rises, wealth is just being transferred to people who own gold away from those people holding the national currency being used to report the rising gold price.  Wealth is simply being re-shuffled – as I like to say – to its rightful owners, namely, those who choose wisely among the different currencies available in which to hold their liquidity needs.  Their wise choice is simply a matter of recognizing which currencies are overvalued and which are undervalued, so they own the latter and avoid the former.

One of the most trusted models that I use to value gold is my Fear Index, about which I have written extensively.  Another trustworthy model is my Gold Money Index, which values gold based on its historical role as international money and global numéraire.  Here is the formula.

The following chart illustrates the usefulness of this index.

 

There are two prices for gold in this chart, the actual price and its “fair value” price, which is calculated by the above formula.  Back in the early 1960s when the dollar was still thought to be “as good as gold”, gold’s actual price was above its fair value.  In other words, central banks had adequate gold reserves on hand relative to the quantity of dollars and other national currencies circulating in international commerce.  But that relationship began to change by the late-1960s. 

Because the dollar was being debased, gold’s fair price rose above its actual price, meaning that gold was undervalued.  In other words, gold was worth more than the $35 per ounce fixed rate of exchange then prevailing.  This $35 price could no longer be maintained because the dollar had become too debased and was overvalued, with the consequence that the dollar’s formal, fixed link to gold was finally abandoned in August 1971.

Thereafter, the gold price began to rise, but gold’s fair price remained above the actual price until 1974.  By then gold had become overvalued, with its actual price exceeding its fair value.  Gold had reached a point marking the first peak in that decade’s bull market in gold.  At the January 1980 peak, which is also clearly seen on the above chart, the actual price again rose above gold’s fair value.  The level of overvaluation reached by gold of course was not sustainable.  Its price fell back, but remained above fair value until 1984.  Gold has been undervalued ever since, as is clear from the following chart, which uses the data from above to show the degree of relative valuation.  In other words, this chart presents, as a percent, gold’s actual price divided by its fair value.

The above chart clearly illustrates the extent to which gold is undervalued.  As of June 30th, the actual price of gold was only 13.0% of its fair value, barely above its all-time low of 10.3% reached in 2008.  Alternatively, this chart is telling us that gold no longer is money, and my valuation method is useless. It has to be one alternative or the other.  There are no other explanations to this huge difference between gold’s actual and fair price.  In my view, the first alternative is correct.

Having filled the role of international money for 5,000 years, gold has been supplanted by fiat currency for the past 40 years because of government force.  However, this nascent experiment with fiat currencies is not going well, as evidenced by growing global imbalances, unchecked increases in debt and financial derivatives, ongoing debasement of currency purchasing power and worsening monetary turmoil.  Fortunately, the attributes that made gold money in the first place have not disappeared or been lost; they have only been ignored or forgotten, with the consequence that gold’s unique usefulness as money remains.  This usefulness is being rediscovered, as evidenced by gold’s rising price this past decade.

Despite this remarkable rise in the gold price, it is clear from the above chart that gold’s undervaluation has barely budged for more than a decade.  The reason of course is the growth in the quantity of national currencies held by central banks (the numerator in the Gold Money Index) is rising about the same rate as the weight of gold held by central banks (the denominator in the Gold Money Index).  So gold remains tremendously undervalued.

The logic of the Gold Money Index is founded on one underlying principle – gold still is money. Things have value because of their usefulness, and gold’s value comes from its usefulness as money.  It is money because the free-market makes it money.  Consequently, governments cannot stop gold from having value, nor even stop gold moving in time from its present undervaluation to a fair valuation, which is presently over $11,000 per ounce. 

We today look back at the Tulip Bubble, Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble with smug amusement and ask ourselves laughingly how could the people back then have been so foolish.  No doubt people generations from now will look back at the present era of government-issued fiat currency and ask themselves the same question.

http://kingworldnews.com/