2014年3月25日星期二

金銀短暫升勢告一段落

石林
上期本欄在最後簡單總結寫道,金銀價格短期可能續升,但稍後將出現動力不繼的現象。上周實際市況確是這樣。
金價在該日漲至每盎斯1392美元的6個月來新高位後,因克里米亞半島未有出現更緊張局面,金市開始出現回吐。 
周三美聯儲公布再度每月減少購債100億美元,至今秋將完全停止購債,且會在其後6個月加息,金市即由回吐演變成拋售,翌日金價跌至1320美元低位。周末則以1334.7美元收市,令全周下跌達47.3美元,跌幅3.4%。
銀市上周一高價竟未能超越前周末高位,只見每盎斯21.56美元,到周四更曾回跌至20.14美元低位。周末以20.275美元收市,全周下1.185美元,跌幅5.5%。
簡 言之,金市在年初迄今的升浪,未能升越前一大升浪的高點1434美元,上周到本欄估計最低的1390美元至1400美元阻力地帶便明顯回頭,可以說是年內 至今的漲勢已告一段落。銀市表現更為不濟,年內的升浪止步於四周前的22.18美元,離前大升浪的高點25.12美元相距甚遠。上周更跌破最近短期升市的 發力點20.5美元水平,只是曾出現一次不算成功的反彈。
再膨脹政策漸消失
面對烏克蘭局勢,美國和歐洲無實力壓倒俄羅斯,對峙局面不得不紓緩下來,金銀價格漲後回吐是可以理解的。但從金銀兩市均未能藉機挑戰前大升浪高點可以看到,基本因素不能支持兩市回復中長期升勢,早前的漲勢很大程度是靠消息和淡倉回補所推動。
美聯儲局的貨幣政策依然是影響金銀兩市的更長期和更關鍵因素,惟有趣的是本以鴿派著稱的耶倫,在她掌管聯儲局後卻傾向於執行較為鷹派的政策。這當然很大程度與實際經濟環境有關,恐亦與耶倫喜歡較公開和保持前後一致的個人作風不無關係。
本 欄有別於其他分析者,多從聯儲局的原始數據去推測其行動趨向。故上周的最新公布對本欄來說是不感意外,聯儲局減購債的原定方針會持續執行下去。此因素對金 銀兩市中長走勢並無好處,原因是再膨脹政策已漸見消去,除非日後出現並非因為經濟政策所引起的嚴重通脹,例如天氣或局勢令農產品和原始商品的價格急漲。目 前我們看不到這方面有很惡劣的情形出現。
回復反覆上落格局
金價迄今不能挑戰前升浪的高點,在技術上未能確認早前以1180美元為雙底的底部成立,未可說中長期市勢已重拾升浪。在稍後一段時間回復較大型的反覆上落市勢,最差的情況甚至會再回試日前的低位水平,銀市就較有這個可能性。
截至上周二,對沖基金在期金市所持淨好倉量仍在增升,但最近數天的未平倉合約總量已從日前的高峰跟隨價位回降,故估計淨好倉將會減降。期銀市情況有所不同,對沖基金所持的淨好倉量自本月初已從高峰回降,難怪上周銀價不能再寸進,回跌幅度也較大。
金市圖表上周出現陰燭吞噬陽燭的行情現象,也意味着短期轉勢。1392美元已成為這次升浪的高點,短期回升阻力地帶下移至1345美元至1353美元;但1319美元仍是目前的支持,此水平若失守市勢進一步轉差,有可能下試1308美元,最大的支持在1287美元水平。
銀 市跌破20.5美元可說未曾出現過有效的彈升市,短期回升阻力下移至21.5美元及21.1美元,日內阻力在20.6美元水平;目前支持在19.9美元, 較大支持則在19.6美元,萬一連19美元也失守,只能說是重陷中期跌勢。在評估市勢時不宜只看圖表,宜結合基本因素和經濟數據作出綜合分析。

CNBC分析:黃金ETF的秘密買入跡象

本文由鳳凰黃金編譯自CNBC vedio:
原視頻參見: Gold's secret buy sign
主持人問:隱藏在黃金買盤的買入跡像是怎樣的呢?
 
 Melissa Lee拿出GLD倉位圖開始給大家講解黃金買盤走勢
 
你看,像瀑布一樣:盤整-下挫-盤整-下挫-盤整-下挫...一個大挫後在去年6月出現第一個底部,而後並沒有伴隨大幅下挫,回升盤整後便呈現出一個定義完好的雙底形態。 之後便進入了今年以來的大規模買入潮。

 
同樣一幅圖用下降趨勢線來看,雙底反轉過後,手指的地方就是“買入信號”(Buy Sign)。

 
從150日均線來看也一樣,大的紅色弧形底就是由熊轉牛的大反轉。

 
最後,在10年期ETF持倉趨勢來看,頂點金價為1900,底部區域金價為1100,他們的50%水平分為線在1500,也正是金價將要前往的目標價位。 而目前金價在1350水平。 

近期入手的 The Hot Wedge-Tailed Eagle High Relief Silver Proof Coin

高浮雕製作的東西是我最愛,最近在SCS買入其中一款 







銀幣的設計師 / 雕刻師,John Mercanti.,是現時流通的鷹揚銀幣的設計師,亦是美國鑄幣局的第十二代首席雕刻師,退休後首次為美國以外的鑄幣局設計硬幣。

The iconic American silver eagle, the most widely collected and traded silver coin in the world, now has an Australian cousin that was created by the same person who designed the American eagle, retired U.S. Mint coin sculptor-engraver, John Mercanti.

On January 7 the Perth Mint in Western Australia released a wedge-tailed high relief eagle coin in silver and gold, each one a one-ounce piece. The silver coin is made from .999 silver and has a global mintage of 10,000, while the gold coin is made of .9999 gold and has a mintage of 1,000.
Depending on where purchased the silver coin runs about $100, while the gold coin comes in at about $2700, or more than twice its melt value.
mercanti wedge The Coin Analyst: Perth Mint Issues Wedge Tailed Silver Eagle Coin Design by John Mercanti
The coins are not available to U.S. customers from Perth, which directs American buyers to New York Mint(www.newyorkmint.com) to obtain the coin. Officials from the Perth Mint explained to CoinWeek that the coin is a joint project of the Perth Mint in consultation with a U.S.-based company, GovMint(www.govmint.com). New York Mint and GovMint are the same company.
The coins can also be purchased on e-Bay, or from Australian dealers such as Downies(www.downies.com) and DirectCoins (www.directcoins.com.au). Sales appear to be brisk for both coins as one of these dealers already sold out of the gold coin, and the other just sold out of the silver version.
The coin’s obverse, like all Australian legal tender coins features the usual bust of Queen Elizabeth II that is familiar to collectors of Australian coins and which was designed by Ian Rank-Broadley. The reverse depicts in intricate detail a majestic wedge-tailed eagle in flight preparing to land on the branch of a dead tree. It is a stunning image with exceptional detail on the eagle’s wings, and looks especially attractive in high relief.
Few world mints are able to issue high relief coins, and Perth is well-known for its line of high relief versions of its widely collected silver coins such as the Lunar series, koalas, and kookaburras, and has also issued other high relief silver and gold coins. High relief coins are very popular with collectors because of their beauty and the fact that they are different from regular relief coins, which do not have the same visual appeal as high reliefs.
The U.S. Mint issued an ultra high relief double eagle gold coin in 2009, but has not issued a silver high relief coin apart from the 1921 peace dollar, which was struck in much higher relief than the other coins in that series. In the past couple years, the Mint has been surveying its customers about the possibility of issuing a high relief silver eagle, which would be very popular with collectors.
Perhaps the most notable fact about the new eagle from Perth is that its reverse design was created by John Mercanti, one of the most widely admired coin sculptor-engravers in the world, who served as the U.S. Mint’s Chief Engraver from 2006 to 2010. During an amazing career at the Mint that started in 1974, Mr. Mercanti designed more U.S. coins and medals than any official Mint employee has ever created, as explained in his book American Silver Eagles: A Guide to the U.S. Bullion Coin Program, co-authored with PCGS grader and modern coin expert, Michael “Miles” Standish and now in its second edition.
mercanti wedge sculpt The Coin Analyst: Perth Mint Issues Wedge Tailed Silver Eagle Coin Design by John Mercanti
Mr. Mercanti is probably best-known for his work on the American silver eagle minted since 1986. He made some subtle modifications to the famous Adolph Weinmann walking liberty half dollar obverse for the coin’s obverse, and then created a heraldic eagle design for the reverse of the coin. One of the main reasons silver eagles are so widely collected is because the coin’s design is so widely considered to be beautiful.
This is the first time a former U.S. Mint Chief Engraver has designed a coin for another world mint. According to Perth: “John brought his extraordinary talents to bear on the Australian wedge-tailed eagle project on behalf of the Perth Mint. Despite being honored for so many outstanding achievements in American coin design, he is kind enough to describe the opportunity to sculpt the image for an Australian legal tender issue as “one of the highlights of my career.”

Perth also explains: “The eagle is traditionally a symbol of freedom, spirit, vision and strength, one which still inspires him from a design perspective. His immediate thought was to present it in an original way: “I asked myself, how could I use the same subject that has been used before, but depict it differently and make it interesting?”

“The wedge-tailed eagle is Australia’s largest bird of prey and one of the biggest eagles in the world. Defining characteristics include its huge wingspan, fully feathered legs (in contrast to its North American cousin, the bald eagle) and, of course, its wedge-shaped tail.”

“There is no doubting the power and splendor of this mighty bird from John’s superb portrayal. To satisfy the requirement for a unique viewpoint, he chose to capture an eagle preparing to land on the branch of a dead tree. “I decided to show the eagle in flight, approaching the stump, wings spread so that the viewer could see the majesty of the wings,” he elaborates.”

“The beauty of the design is enhanced by John’s stunning representation of the eagle’s intricately layered feathers. Conspicuous against an uncluttered, mirror-like table, the crisp, high-relief strike maximizes an onlooker’s appreciation of this immense detailing.”

This coin seems destined to be an instant modern world classic because of its compelling design and the fact that it is a Mercanti creation. Based on what I have read in various online coin forums, it appears to already be very popular with collectors around the world, especially those who collect American silver eagles, and those who enjoy depictions of eagles on coins, which is an especially popular theme in the U.S., Canada, and Australia.

套利驅動中港黃金乾坤大挪移

過去幾年,經濟和金融市場留下了兩大“懸案”。 第一是中國大陸和香港的貿易規模激增,背後誰是主謀。 第二是為什麼黃金實物需求旺盛,金價卻不漲反跌。 本文可能可以一次過解開你心中的兩大疑惑。 (感謝Zerohegde博主Tyler Durden充滿想像力的視野)


 

誰刺激了中港貿易? ——黃金貿易融資交易

與銅貿易融資交易相比(關於銅融歡迎回顧《 銅融資時代的終結是中國的雷曼時刻? 》),中國黃金貿易融資交易用了另一種操作方式,但兩者都是為了幫助廉價的國外資本流入中國。 特別的,黃金融資交易涉及了現貨黃金的進口和黃金半加工品的出口,並把外匯帶入中國。 結果是,中國的貿易數據可能反映了,至少部分反映了,中國黃金貿易融資交易的規模。 相反,中國銅融資交易並不需要把實物銅真實地運入再運出中國,正如去年文章所解釋的,所以銅融資交易的數據是不會顯示在海關數據上的。


詳細地說,中國黃金貿易融資交易涉及以下四個步驟:


1.在岸黃金廠家把信用證支付給離岸子公司,並從保稅區倉庫或香港進口黃金到中國大陸——這將增加進口數字
2.離岸子公司以收到的信用證作為抵押,從離岸銀行借入美元
3.在岸黃金廠家收到離岸子公司的美元款項,並把黃金半加工品出口到保稅區倉庫——這增加了出口數字
4.重複以上3步

如下圖所示:

如上圖所示,黃金融資交易理論上應該會同時以相同的規模增加進出口數字。 對進口而言,其會增加中國總現貨黃金的進口數字,而出口數字的增加主要和黃金製品相關,比如說金箔、金器、黃金珠寶等。 鑑於中國從香港進口的黃金從2009年起增長了超過10倍,到2013年末漲至約700億美元,同時黃金和其它黃金產品的出口業也增長了大概相同的規模,這足以證明了(如下圖所示)。 這與中國黃金貿易融資交易作業圖分析的影響一致——大概以相同的規模增加了出口和進口數字。


(淺紫色代表大陸向香港出口的黃金(金條、金盤和金箔等),深紫色代表大陸向香港出口的珍珠、貴金屬和珠寶,黑線代表大陸從香港進口的黃金(金條、金盤和金箔等))




鑑於中國大陸和香港之間​​黃金貿易市場規模的快速增長(從2009年的不到50億美元增長到2013年的700億美元),極可能是由黃金貿易融資交易帶動的。


然而,更大的問題仍然搞不清楚,也就是高盛觀察到的,“我們不知道多少噸實物黃金被用於這些交易中了,因為我們不知道循環使用的次數,但我們認為,該次數應該遠大於銅融資交易的。”

為什麼金價不漲? ——黃金貿易融資交易

中國進口了1400噸的實物黃金,名義價值約為700億美元,在通常的情況下怎麼可能不令供求平衡的價格飆升,但實際上金價的確沒有上漲,反而下跌了。


(中國進口現貨黃金的總量)


答案很簡單:紙面黃金市場   [不是紙黃金,這裡指非實物黃金交易的市場。]


高盛的報告給出了實物市場和紙面市場脫節的解釋。 可以肯定,這種聯繫的脫節已經被很多人提出或猜到,特別是看到某些實物需求看起來十分旺盛,但並沒有伴隨價格上漲而感到震驚的人,他們會猜測有人在紙面的期貨市場激進的拋售,抵消了現貨的需求。


高盛的報告似乎給出了解釋:


從大宗商品市場的角度看,貿易融資交易製造了額外的現貨需求,使現貨市場出現緊張,並利用從人民幣與美元利息差異中賺取的部分利潤支付存儲現貨商品的費用。 雖然通過持有相抵消的商品期貨對沖頭寸,貿易融資中的商品頭寸一般是中性的,但購買現貨商品對現貨市場造成的影響,很可能要大於在期貨市場售出商品期貨合約造成的影響。 這反映了一個事實,現貨庫存的數量要遠少於期貨市場的未平倉合約(如下圖所示)。 中國商品貿易融資活動,不單增加了現貨價格的上漲壓力,還“收窄(tighten)”了現貨商品價格和期貨價格之間的價差。

(深紫色代表現貨庫存規模,淺紫色代表銅融相關的LME期貨未平倉合約規模,前者只有後者的約1/10)