2012年8月16日星期四

中國央行或將通過購債投放基礎貨幣



中國央行週二公佈的數據顯示,7月末中國外匯占款餘額為人民幣25.658萬億元,環比減少38.2億元,為年內第二次月度下降。今年1-7月的外匯占款月均增量僅400多億元,相當於去年同期的兩成左右,外匯占款的趨勢性下降態勢已較為明顯。《第一財經日報》引述一位接近中國央行的知情人士透露,在二級市場買賣國債,可能將成為央行今後投放基礎貨幣的重要渠道。該報稱,這一新舉措將用於解決外匯占款趨勢性下降的問題。隨著貿易順差縮窄、資本流入減少(甚至為負數),通過外匯市場干預往銀行系統注入流動性的老方法已經行不通。隨著中國經濟增速進一步放緩、人民幣貶值預期增強,中國央行短期內不能夠期望資本流出的現像出現逆轉。中國央行可能通過購債注入流動性的消息其實並不算十分意外,儘管目前政府債券只佔中國央行資產負債表很小的一部分。即使在QE誕生以前,全球主要央行在也經常在公開市場買賣國債以達到影響短期利率的目的,儘管影響的通常不是長期利率。隨著外匯占款導致的流動性“盛宴”謝幕,如果中國央行要阻止人民幣貶值,資本外流最終將導致中國央行的資產負債表出現收縮,具體表現是外匯儲備下降(目前已經在發生,儘管很緩慢)。當然,中國央行可以通過降低存款準備金率來釋放流動性,但央行不可能把存准率降至零以下。下面這張是由瑞信亞洲首席經濟學家陶冬整理的中國央行資產構成圖。目前政府債券僅佔中國央行資產規模的5.4%。



若以資產規模計,中國央行目前是全球第一大央行,但資產構成主要是外匯儲備,國債佔比遠低於美、英、日、歐四大央行。中國央行的資產購成跟美、歐、日英四大央行大不相同。


據IMF經濟學家孫濤發表於《新世紀》的文章,
從資產構成看,2010年底,美、英、日、歐四家央行所持國債佔本國央行資產的比重分別為43%、80%、73%、9%。此外,四家央行還持有私人金融機構的抵押品(如按揭證券)。人民銀行的主要資產是外匯儲備資產,2010年外匯儲備資產佔人民銀行總資產的比重為80%,分別是美、英、日和歐央行資產的1.3倍、8.1倍、2倍和1.2倍。不誇張地說,僅人民銀行的外匯儲備資產就足以買下任何一家央行。 


Also Sprach Analyst認為如果中國貿易順差繼續減小、資本外流持續,中國央行很可能將通過在公開市場購買國債增加銀行系統的準備金,緩解銀行系統的流動性壓力。但美國、英國和日本的經驗告訴我們,銀行系統中超額準備金的規模跟信貸增速沒有密切關係。在資本持續外流導致外匯儲備減少的背景下,購債確實是維持中國央行資產規模進而維持市場流動性水平的唯一方法。事實上,如果中國政府下定決心刺激經濟增長,中國央行出手購買其他資產類別也不足為奇。“三元悖論”的觀點認為,中國央行沒有可能同時實現匯率穩定、貨幣政策獨立及資本自由流動這三個目標。資本外流、貿易順差不給力導致人民幣匯率承壓。根據“三元悖論”,在這種情況下,如果中國下定決心維持人民幣匯率穩定,那麼它要收緊貨幣政策,而不是放鬆。如果中國央行選擇通過購債的方式放鬆貨幣政策,那麼它必須放棄捍衛人民幣匯率或者阻止資本流動這兩個目標的其中之一。在資本外流的背景下,如果中國央行真的通過購債來注入流動性,那麼人民幣很可能將進一步貶值。 

都是鐵錢惹的禍——咸豐年間福州的“鐵錢風潮”

來源:中國集幣在線 2012年08月02日

    
清朝咸豐八年(公元1858年)三月,福建省城福州爆發了一場來勢洶洶的金融風潮。當時福州府的百姓全城罷市,衝擊閩浙總督衙門,毆打退休尚書,請求罷用鐵錢,平抑市面物價,一時震動全國,此事件甚至被收錄於《清文宗實錄》。引起這場金融風潮的“罪魁禍首”竟是原本不起眼的鐵錢,故而史稱“鐵錢風潮”或“鐵錢事件”。

    
咸豐年間,太平軍興,列強入侵,內憂外患,清政府國庫空虛,財政相當困難。為緩解財政危機,彌補虧空,清政府下令全國各地行鈔票、鑄大錢以應急。當時清政府鑄錢銅源主要來自云南。但因太平天國革命爆發,為戰爭所阻隔,滇銅外運受阻,銅料來源不暢,造成鑄錢用銅緊張。清政府除四處搜羅銅料以鑄錢外,還開鑄鐵錢以解燃眉之急。彼時福建局勢異常動盪,太平軍進入福建,福建當地的小刀會、大刀會、江湖會、紅槍會等農民起義此起彼伏。福建當局財政支絀,調兵籌餉非常艱難。為此,在清廷正式開鑄咸豐大錢前,咸豐三年(1853年)初福建巡撫王懿德即上奏清廷,請求添設爐座鼓鑄大錢,以解燃眉之急,當即獲得咸豐皇帝批准。清代設於福州的鑄錢機構——福建寶福鑄錢局迅速鑄造咸豐大錢,投放市場流通。福建寶福局鑄造的鹹豐大錢有當十、當二十、當五十、當百四種面值,採用紫銅為幣材,鑄造精美,錢體厚重,故投入市場流通後受到民眾歡迎,物價趨於穩定,社會趨於平靜。但令福建當局始料不及的是,當時市場還大量流通使用摻雜鉛沙的減重銅錢及他省粗製濫造的鹹豐大錢,而福建寶福局鑄造的鹹豐大錢成色、重量遠較上述減重銅錢及粗製濫造的鹹豐大錢為佳,在“劣幣驅逐良幣”這一貨幣流通規律的作用下,福建寶福局鑄造的鹹豐大錢大量為民間藏匿,市面通貨不足,出現了嚴重的錢荒。

    
為緩解錢荒,咸豐四年(1854年)底福建巡撫呂佺孫急奏清廷,稱“閩省錢局,鼓鑄乏銅”,請求“籌議改鑄鐵錢,以充民用”。次年正月獲清廷批准。於是寶福局開設四爐鼓鑄鐵錢,以應急需。寶福局所鑄咸豐鐵錢,面文“咸豐通寶”四字,背滿文“寶福”字樣(如圖),只有小平錢一種,但版式繁多,有大樣、小樣、寬郭、窄郭、大字、小字等10餘種版別。直徑在23至28毫米之間,原規定每枚重一錢六分,但實測重量並不一致,大體在3至5克之間。



 鐵錢乃低值劣質鑄幣。鐵錢的大量鑄造,必然產生劣幣驅逐良幣的現象,致使銅錢幾乎絕跡。鐵錢充斥市面,造成通貨惡性膨脹,物價高昂。杭州人林真咸豐五年(1855年)正好游宦福州,在其所著《苦海新讀》中記其見聞曰:“餘於咸豐五年遊閩,其時福建已用鐵錢。餘初到時,行囊中尚剩銅錢數百文,偶用以買物,市中見者皆為驚異,且稱可惜,以數倍之物相付,蓋市中絕無一銅錢見面也。其時,斗米價一千五百文,他物稱是,民不聊生。” 當時民間開始拒用鐵錢,“官局所鑄鐵錢,與乞丐弗受,擲道旁無人拾”。至咸豐七年(1857年)八月,除省城福州尚勉強流通外,福建各府州縣早已不用鐵錢。鐵錢不斷貶值,物價繼續飛漲。道咸間福州著名詩人謝章鋌曾作《惜奴嬌•鰣魚》詞一首,在詞首自註雲:“閩中近行鐵錢,物力極昂,鰣魚斤值數千文。” 曾翻譯《巴黎茶花女遺事》的中國近代著名文學家、小說翻譯家林紓一家也深受鐵錢之害,因行用鐵錢而致傾家蕩產。林紓在作《先大母陳太孺人事略》中回憶過這樣一件事:林紓的父親林國銓曾以銅錢一千五百緡在福州城內三坊七巷的玉尺山典賃下一座房屋居住,但房屋的典券上只書錢的數額而未註明是銅錢還是鐵錢。 1856年,林國銓到建寧販鹽,不幸觸礁船破,在拿出所有的錢賠償後,只好遠走台灣謀生去了。當時福州已通行鐵錢,而鐵錢一千隻可抵銅錢一百。正當林家陷入極端困窘之境,“有陳蓮峰者,以孝廉武斷鄉曲,操券提鐵錢一千五百緡贖吾屋,實則值錢百有五十。時閩俗厚禮重科名,陳蓮峰至吾家,飛擲杯碗,摧折几案,隳突咆哮如悍吏”。林紓的祖母陳太孺人忍受不下這種欺侮,曾出面質問:“先生科名中人,異日即為他省之官吏。獄貴察情,寧不知鐵錢千僅抵銅錢百耶?老婦辛苦哺兒,幸兒能典屋以安老婦,今先生必欲覆吾巢,何也?”然而,這位陳姓孝廉,這位所謂的“科名中人”,居然蠻不講理地硬逼著林紓的祖母交出典券,以原典價的十分之一強行贖回了房屋。林紓一家可謂“啞巴吃黃連”,被逼得傾家蕩產,被陳孝廉趕出三坊七巷後只得卜借福州城外嘉崇裡的橫山泗洲巷居住。

    
福建鑄行鐵錢導致錢賤糧貴,物價飛漲,窮黎無以糊口,怨聲載道,終於在咸豐八年(1858年)爆發了聲勢浩大的群眾性反鐵錢風潮。咸豐八年(1858年)三月中,福州城外南台民眾千百成群,為首者鳴鑼集眾,集議入城,全城罷市。民眾氣勢洶洶地蜂擁至福建巡撫、閩浙總督衙門請願,要求罷用鐵錢,平抑物價。時任閩浙總督王懿德驚惶失措,避而不見。民眾群情更加激憤,拆壞督署轅門大門、二門,擁入大堂。總督王懿德翻牆躲入馬厩。群眾尋總督不得,遂遷怒建議行用大錢、鐵錢的致仕尚書廖鴻荃,直奔廟巷(今妙巷)廖府問罪。當搜抄廖府查出囤積的銅錢一千餘貫時,憤極的民眾將廖家搗毀,並痛毆廖鴻荃致重傷。緊急關頭,閩省諸官員匆忙請福州將軍東純出面調停。東純字紫來,杭州旗人。其雖係旗人,但為人慈祥敦厚,且平日亦反對行用鐵錢,因而在群眾中尚有一定威信。東純來到督署當即向群眾保證兩件事,一是從次日起行用銅錢作價交易;二是百姓隨時可以10:1的比率拿鐵錢向官府兌換銅錢。一場來勢洶洶的金融風潮總算平息下來。

    
但民間拒用鐵錢,寶福局咸豐鐵錢從此大量積壓。到了咸豐九年(1859年)七月,寶福局倉庫已積存無法行用的鐵錢12萬串。時值第二次鴉片戰爭爆發,天津防務吃緊,朝廷向各地徵集捐輸軍款糧餉。閩浙總督王懿德與福​​建巡撫慶端認為廢物有了可以利用的機會,於是以捐輸軍餉為名,建議將寶福局積壓鐵錢充餉運赴天津一帶行使。在清廷未批准前,即擅自委派調防天津的水師戰船四艘,勻搭袋運鐵錢六萬串,解赴天津行使,其餘六萬串另僱商船運天津。然而當這批鐵錢運抵之時,天津一帶民間也已不行用鐵錢,因此運到的寶福局鐵錢只能作為廢鐵堆放倉庫無人問津。 20世紀80年代以來,天津地區多次出土數量驚人的寶福局咸豐鐵錢,總數多達數十噸,為這批鐵錢的下落提供了有力證據。作者:葉真銘

$12,000 Gold, Paulson, Soros & A Coming Mania In The Shares




Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with King World News about a coming move in gold to $12,000 and a mania in the gold shares. Leeb, who is Chairman of Leeb Capital Management, had this to say: “It’s already been reported that John Paulson and George Soros have just increased their gold holdings. Paulson, in particular, is really betting the house on gold. I believe gold now comprises 44% of Paulson’s fund. Soros, who also knows a thing or two about macro-economics, added a pretty big chunk to his gold holdings.” Stephen Leeb continues:

Stephen Leeb continues:

“So we have some very savvy investors moving heavily into gold.  We also have people like legendary value investor Seth Klarman, that are aggressively increasing their positions in the mining shares.  Klarman’s firm has one of the best track records of any fund around for the last generation.

So whether investors are looking to buy gold or quality mining shares, it is important for them to know they are in good company....


“You’ve got a lot of smart people making very, very substantial bets on gold. 

Market action over the past couple of days has been surprising to me.  For quite some time, whenever we would see a strong economic statistic, gold would selloff.  That hasn’t been happening lately.  We are seeing more inclinations to bet on inflation going forward.

We have bonds weakening significantly in the US today and gold is trading higher.  The gold price is really starting to anticipate the next wave of inflation.  I have maintained for some time now that this bull market in gold, that we have seen so far, has just been the first leg of a market that is anticipating inflation.

It’s starting to feel like the bull market is now going to expand.  Once we start to really see inflation take off, you are going to see gold rocket higher.  Gold has done what it has so far with a combination of inflation and deflation.  When we start to see inflation really ignite, that transition in gold is going to be something to behold.  Gold holders are in a very strong position now, with very little downside risk. 

We are going to see things in the gold market that we haven’t seen since the 1970s.  Keep in mind that the whole move during the leg of that bull market, from 1976 to 1980, was an inflation move in gold.  There was no real period of time where we had all of these monetary aggregates build up.  We just went into very serious inflation. 

Gold, between 1976 to 1980, went from roughly $100 to $800.  Well, if you do that kind of math for gold over the next four or five years and you multiply $1,600 by a factor of 8, that takes the price of gold well over $12,000.”

Leeb also added:  “I just want to help people here and my message is to own gold.  But again I have to say something about these junior gold stocks.  For these major gold companies that are looking to replace their reserves, they are going to have to start buying the quality junior gold companies.  Investors can expect to see a lot of acquisitions. 

I would prefer for investors to own these juniors because the quality shares will end up in a mania at some point.  The last leg of the 70s bull market saw incredible gains in junior mining shares and I expect the same thing this time around.  The bottom line is this is an ideal buy point for gold and the mining shares.  As I said, there is very little downside and enormous upside potential.”

Hong Kong, Gateway To China, 1938

大家一齊認識下1938年的香港



 用呢個急...靚過birkin百倍

Trapwire: Big Brother Software Designed for Pre-Crime Surveillance

CIA ,FBI 在美國監視 每一樣事情

Susanne Posel
Occupy Corporatism
August 15, 2012




The CIA-sponsored psy-op Wikileaks have released emails regarding Stratfor, the private intelligence firm that brought attention to Trapwire . With information provided by Anonymous, a CIA funded hacker group, this surveillance system has been installed across America.
Having been created by a group of American business men, in conjunction with the CIA, use of Trapwire has been justified because of 9/11 attacks, threats from al-Qaeda and further efforts in the war on terrorism. By sacrificing “sensitive or personally identifiable information” the US government has given itself permission to implement a super-spying control grid that encompasses all modes of surveillance in one centralized operational software technology.
We see the surveillance cameras in retail stores across the nation, never suspecting that those devices are being used to track our movements and records or behavior for the benefit of the burgeoning Big Brother control grid.
In the name of potential terrorist attack prevention, Trapwire combines state-defined suspicious activity reports and other “evidence” that justify all-encompassing surveillance of the general public. The beauty of Trapwire as a Big Brother control software de jour, is that it is “a unique, predictive software system designed to detect patterns of pre-attack surveillance.”
A press release from June, states that Trapwire is “designed to provide a simple yet powerful means of collecting and recording suspicious activity reports.” A system of interconnected nodes spot information considered to be suspect and then inputs it into the system to be “analyzed and compared with data entered from other areas within a network for the purpose of identifying patterns of behavior that are indicative of pre-attack planning.”
Trapwire looks for “any patterns detected – links among individuals, vehicles or activities – will be reported back to each affected facility. This information can also be shared with law enforcement organizations, enabling them to begin investigations into the suspected surveillance cell.”
The proclaimed goal of Trapwire, as explained by Richard Helms, CEO of Trapwire is to “collect information about people and vehicles that is more accurate than facial recognition, draw patterns, and do threat assessments of areas that may be under observation from terrorists.” By identifying “behavior patterns” Trapwire is the ultimate in identity surveillance because it can create a timeline of past, present and predict the future on any individual it is analyzing.
The system can collaborate with existing camera technologies, combined with intelligence communities to data mine through all digital sources for informational comparison across all internet networks – such as information provided readily on social networking sites.
Every few seconds, data from remote cameras in all major cities is encrypted, and then sent digitally to an undisclosed central database center to be aggregated with other intelligence.
In Los Angeles, the police department has unveiled iWatch which is a Trapwire surveillance system. Other cities such as the District of Columbia, New York City’s See Something, Say Something program; as well as private casino corporations in Las Vegas, Nevada have employed Trapwire along with the Pentagon, CIA and many military facilities .
Trapwire has been employed worldwide by private sector multi-national corporations and foreign and domestic governments. The White House is surveilled by the same company as Wal-mart with all data going to fusion centers .
In Australia, the governmental transportation and defense contractors have implemented Trapwire under a $370 million deal to spy on Sydney’s public transportation ticketing system based on London’s Oster card.
Trapwire has also been granted $32 million in defense contracts with the Australian Defense Force (ADF) to provide simulation training systems.
According to a spokesperson for the ADF, ”The Department of Defense is aware of the Trapwire System. However, it would be inappropriate to provide further comment on this system or its capabilities” with regard to “intelligence or operational capabilities.”
This Big Brother surveillance system which has been justified since the state-sponsored attacks on 9/11 because of the necessity of the global war on terror, has made America a lucrative customer and “high-value target”.

金價Q2回落 投資人續抱 投資巨擘索羅斯也大幅增持

《彭博社》報導,投資巨擘索羅斯 (George Soros) 與保森 (John Paulson) 均增加了黃金基金在其投資組合中的比重,由於金價在第 2 季出現 2008 年以來出現最大的季度回落。

據美國證券交易委員會的文件顯示,索羅斯基金管理 (Soros Fund Management) 增加其在最大黃金基金 SPDR Gold Trust (GLD-US) 的投資比重,至6月底,持股已增至 88.4 萬股,較第 1 季增持 1 倍以上。Paulson & Co. 亦增加持股 26% 至 2180 萬股。

黃金價格在今 (2012) 年第 2 季下跌 4%,是自 2008 年第 3 季以來所見最大季度降幅。由於歐州央行總裁德拉吉 (Mario Draghi) 與美國聯準會主席伯南克 (Ben  Bernanke) 均未進一步提出經濟刺激方法,市場購入黃金以保值抗通膨的需求也見降低。自 6 月底至今,黃金價格又下跌 0.1%。

資產管理公司 BB&T Wealth Management 經理人 Walter Hellwig 指出,投資人續抱黃金、預期金價上揚,並等待聯準會推出新一輪寬鬆措施。

自聯準會把美國利率調至歷史低點,並在前兩輪寬鬆政策中回購 2.3 兆美元國債後,黃金價格便一路上漲。自 2008 年 12 月至 2011 年 6 月,金價瘋漲 70%。

但由於金條價格下滑與金礦公司股價下跌,至 7 月至今,Paulson 於黃金基金的投資虧損 23%。Paulson 基金和索羅斯基金發言人均拒絕對報導回應。

由於經濟成長放緩,黃金價格今年 5 月明顯回落,而投資人興趣較集中於國債及美元。在過去一季,美元較其他海外主要貨幣升值 3.3%。

過去 12 個月,避險基金也大減 66% 淨長倉部位。據美國期貨交委員會資料,至 8 月 7 日為止,黃金期貨與選擇權部位降至 85510 口。

不過以長期觀察,黃金價格仍處於連續 11 年的上漲趨勢當中,漲幅超過 7 倍,因為在各國政府與央行的經濟刺激計畫下,投資人都買入黃金以求資產保值。今年以來,金價也上揚 2.3%。

《彭博社》統計資料顯示,至 8 月10 日止,在市場上交易的黃金量增至 2417.3 公噸歷史高點。世界黃金協會 (WGC) 資料則顯示,至去年底止,全球央行與國際貨幣基金會 (IMF) 所持有的黃金總量為 2.95 萬噸,占已開採黃金的 17%;近 2 年來,央行均淨買入黃金,預期今年買入量將較去年增加 456 噸。
紐約近月黃金價格走勢
 

國際買家增加黃金投資比重

黃金價格今(2012)年第2季雖然創下2008年以來的最大季度跌幅,但包括喬治‧索羅斯(George Soros)和約翰 鮑爾森(John Paulson)等投資巨擘卻不約而同增加黃金基金的投資比重。回顧過去經驗,過去11年黃金價格逐年收漲,尤其在第3季、第4季的漲幅相對較上半年大, 法人分析,金價可望在第3季盤整後逐步走高,第4季續揚空間也相對較大。

根據統計,從2000到2011年,金價上半年平均漲幅約5.21%,下半年漲幅則有10.31%,漲幅幾乎是上半年的一倍。對應於黃金類股的表現,上年平均漲幅有4.53%,下半年漲幅則可達10%以上。

投信業者分析,儘管今年上半年金價僅上漲2.16%,黃金類股下跌14.62%,不過隨著進入第4季黃金旺季,估計不論是黃金現貨或黃金類股,兩者未來補漲空間可期。

全球分析師預估,第3季金價均價和現貨價比,黃金為4.6%;第4季金價價差達到8%,顯示分析師仍持續看多黃金走勢。根據瑞銀今(15)日公告,世界各國央行今年的黃金總購買量將達到350噸,而預估今年的黃金均價為每盎司1,680美元。

匯豐黃金及礦業基金經理人蕭若梅表示,近期金價每盎司約1600美元,價格溫和上揚,不過因為飾金旺季受到中印經濟疲軟影響,導致需求不振,目前主要買盤以黃金ETF與各國央行為主。
不過,值得留意的是,隨著歐洲央行致力於拯救歐元,美國財政懸崖逼近,在在加深市場對ECB、FED將持續擴大QE程度的期待,預估金價後市仍有向上攻堅的空間。

The Hoarding Continues: China Has Imported More Gold In Six Months Than Portugal's Entire Gold Reserve

While the highly "sophisticated" traders that make up the gold market continue to buy or sell the precious metal based on whether the Fed will or will not do the NEW QE tomorrow (or just because, like Bruno Iskil, they have a massive balance sheet, and can create margin position out of thin air with impunity), China continues to do one thing. 

Buy. Because while earlier today we were wondering (rhetorically, of course) what China is doing with all that excess trade surplus if it is not recycling it back into Treasurys, now we once again find out that instead of purchasing US paper, Beijing continues to buy non-US gold, in the form of 68 tons in imports from Hong Kong in the month of June. The year to date total (6 months)? 383 tons. 

 In other words, in half a year China, whose official total tally is still a massively underrepresented 1054 tons, has imported more gold than the official gold reserves of Portugal, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the UK, and so on, and whose YTD imports alone make it the 14th largest holder of gold in the world. Realistically, by now China, which hasn't provided an honest gold reserve holdings update to the IMF in years, most certainly has more gold than the IMF, and its 2814 tons, itself. Of course, the moment the PBOC does announce its official updated gold stash, a gold price in the mid-$1000 range will be a long gone memory.



Here is the latest breakdown of gold reserves by Top 20 countries via the WGC:

密實盒有幾密實?

睇圖就明白..

但如果是經常開合..就未必做到理想防潮的較果,

始終防潮珠未能在短時間發揮抽濕作用 ,

密實盒最理想是不要時常開開合合.....那樣就可長期保持在低濕度下.


中國次季黃金需求可能回軟

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 道瓊斯報道,黃金礦業服務公司(GFMS)援引調研活動搜集的證據稱,今年第二季度中國的黃金需求可能回落。

根據接受GFMS調查的加工廠和貿易參與者,中國二季度黃金需求似乎已經放緩,儘管近期的海關數據指向相反。

GFMS稱,對現有的海關數據進行分析可知,今年從香港流入中國大陸的黃金大幅增長,今年頭五個月的同比增幅達到700%以上 。

但該公司指出,從貿易行業的多個渠道搜集的消息顯示,不斷增長的香港與大陸之間的黃金迂迴交易(當地公司利用黃金開展外匯和利率套利),使得香港黃金出口量數據嚴重虛高。[DJ]