鮑爾森黃金基金2月暴跌18％

對沖基金巨頭John Paulson在2月份損失慘重，由於金屬和黃金采掘行業股票下跌加劇，鮑爾森黃金基金遭受了兩位數的下跌。

    Paulson的黃金基金已經創立3年，掌控約8億美元資產。據知情人士向路透社透露，在黃金價格下跌5.1%，掘金行業股票下跌10%的背景下，鮑爾森黃金基金2月份卻暴跌了18%，今年總計已經下跌了26%。

    據華爾街日報報導，鮑爾森在給股東的信中說，由於基金擁有黃金衍生品，具有很大的槓槓效應，所以基金比市場表現更差。他暗示可能會放棄這些槓槓產品。
這個黃金基金是鮑爾森公司最小的基金，但它的重大損失每次都佔據媒體頭條，不過Paulson比其他許多投資者都看好黃金。

    數月來，Paulson一直堅持單一投資世界上最大的黃金交易基金SPDR黃金信託，在去年第四季度末Paulson在這個基金裡擁有2180萬股份。 2月份SPDR下跌了3.8%，拋出了70噸黃金，佔整個基金持有量的5%，這是自2004年以來市場最大的拋售，其他投資者因此都變得緊張不安。
分析師稱，他們並不知道是誰在拋售，但根據過去的文檔顯示，Northern Trust （北方信託）公司、摩根大通和美國銀行都是大持有人。
Paulson通過反向操作使他的公司成長為行業巨頭，2007年他做空當時過熱的住房市場，從中獲利約40億美元。在2010年，他的黃金投資獲利更大。

    儘管黃金價格暴跌，但Paulson一直堅持他的觀點，認為在未來某個時點，通脹將回升，黃金將成為避風港。
在去年末，Paulson還擁有AngloGoldAshanti礦業2820萬股份、Novagold Resources公司3590萬股份、Randgold Resources 公司930502股，今年這些股份都遭受了兩位數的損失。
其他投資者一直密切關注鮑爾森的動向，把他當做2.6萬億的對沖基金行業的風向標。但是Paulson以及他的投資人由於過分看好經濟復甦，他們在2011年和2012年都遭受了重大的損失。公司的規模從2011年早期的380億美元急劇收縮至現在的180億美元。
鮑爾森的黃金損失慘重，不過上個月他的其他基金有漲有跌，他的優勢基金遭受了新的損失，而他的信貸基金則小有收益。

    公司今年最大的收益來自聯合套利基金鮑爾森夥伴提升基金（Paulson Partners Enhanced fund），繼1月份強勢上漲1.1%後，2月份又上漲了7.7%。鮑爾森信貸機遇（Paulson Credit Opportunities）基金2月份上漲了1.4%，今年至今總共上漲4.4%。 Recovery基金2月份上漲1.5%，今年總計上漲5.3%.

    鮑爾森優勢基金（Paulson Advantage Fund）主要押注於公司動向，2月份下跌了3.5%，今年總計下跌2.6%。

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Gold Chart plus Comments

I am pressed for time right now but wanted to get some charting out there for the readers. I apologize for the lack of "stuff" this week but a trader's life can be busy at times.
As those who have been regular readers of this site know quite well by now, I have been very cautious in regards to gold for some time now. When a market continues to violate one chart support level after another, it is never a bullish sign, no matter what all the self-proclaimed experts are pontificating whether it be some backwardation nonsense chatter or "bullish COT" reports.
I have said it before and will say it again, speculators, particularly the large ones, aka, hedge funds, are what drive markets nowadays. When they are selling, it is never bullish. The only time it is bullish is when they are loading up on the short side and a market is not breaking down through support levels.
We might have just reached that point. I want to emphasize, "might" because I need some further confirmation from the price action. What I am seeing however is a market that keeps entering a zone that I have marked, "STRONG BUYING ZONE" and every time that it does, it does not stay in that zone for more than three hours time.
Note the following 60 minute chart and you can see that the moves lower into this zone generate high volume buying in which price tends to spike off of the worst levels rather than closing each bar down on the lows. That is an indication of heavy buying by some very strong hands.
We have had three occasions now since the first of this month that this level has held rock solid. it is evident that the bears have been unable thus far to break the price down through the bottom of this zone.
What I want to see to feel more confident is an upside breach of the top of this trading range that REMAINS ABOVE this level for at least 4-6 hours, preferably a day. I believe that if this occurs, we will begin to see some of these hedge funds start to cover.
If gold can get back above $1600, it will suggest that a bottom is in. The flip side is of course if this support level gives way. Let's hope it does not.

traderdannorcini 

Jim Rickards: An Economic Pearl Harbor We Never Saw Coming!

China has acquired 2,000 tons of gold, and need to acquire another 2,000 tons.  China is converting large amounts of dollar derivatives contracts into physical gold.  
  Tensions are rising between the US & China, and China is secretly stockpiling massive amounts of gold…
As the currency wars were heating up, China wasn’t just stockpiling gold futures contracts.  They also had their hedge funds take positions in a block of highly leveraged derivatives.  Out of the blue China orders these hedge funds to sell these secret holdings-all at the same time.  In 1 single day they dump the equivalent of the entire GDP of Canada, India, or Russia on Wall St.
  An economic Pearl Harbor we never saw coming…