2014年1月15日星期三

香港男子腳踩百萬黃金入境深圳 步伐沉重被識破

  

  中新網1月14日電 據香港《星島日報》報道,一名香港男子上周經羅湖口岸到深圳時,被關員發覺其步伐沉重,引起懷疑截查,揭發他所穿的運動鞋鞋底,藏有4公斤重金塊,市值100萬人民幣,該男涉走私被捕,交由緝私部門跟進。

  涉案男子姓徐,6日經羅湖口岸入境深圳,接受海關人員行李檢查時神情緊張,引起關員懷疑,初步搜查只在其行李內發現兩罐奶粉,但關員發覺他走路不自然,步伐沉重,遂進一步檢查,終在其所穿的運動鞋鞋底,共發現4枚金塊,涉嫌走私貴金屬被捕。

  海關所檢獲的4塊黃金,純度為999點9,每塊重1公斤,共重4公斤,約值100萬元人民幣,徐某已交由緝私部門處理跟進。

策略師:預計金價到5000並不瘋狂下一個牛市將創新高

Cazenove Capital的策略師Robin Griffiths認為那些對金價會漲到3000美元/盎司甚至5000美元/盎司的預測並不能算瘋狂。 

Griffiths說:“全世界的評論員們都在說'黃金正處在長期的熊市中。'說'它已經崩潰了。'我對此不同意。”因為受到數道斐波那契回撤位的支撐,Griffiths認為,“目前出現的是一個持續上升趨勢中的周期性熊市。

這意味著當進入下一個長期牛市中的周期性牛市的時候,金價不僅會升到1900美元/盎司,更可能創造出新的高價。

因此,Griffiths認為那些對金價會到3000美元/盎司甚至5000美元/盎司的預計並不瘋狂。在各國央行都在大肆印鈔的情況下,人們會需要黃金來保值。

當然,Griffiths也指出,在買入實物黃金的,大部分是中國人和印度人,而賣出的黃金則大多是紙黃金。黃金ETF的流通量事實上遠大於黃金產量。 

“我不認為黃金市場有立即的買入信號,但我覺得我們已經接近底部了。如果金價重新回到1275美元/盎司上方,我會買入更多。但在今年某些時候,可能會看到金價進入震盪上行模式,會重返在上漲的200天移動均線上方。”

Physical Silver Trading at a 5% Premium in Shanghai

riday January 10, 2013, the first Chinese gold report was released by the SGE.
19.8 metric tonnes on gold were withdrawn from the SGE vaults in week 1 of 2014.
Gold premiums at the SGE have been rising since November, and silver premiums are also on the move in Shanghai, currently up to 5%!



Submitted by Koos Jansen, In Gold We Trust:
First let’s look at the amount of gold from the vaults. Below is a screen dump from the withdrawals in the first trading week of 2014, which covered 30-12-2013 / 3-1-2014 (there was no trading on 01-01-2014).

SGE withdrawals week 1 2014

The green number is the gold withdrawn from the vaults in the covered period. The red number is the gold withdrawn from the vaults year to date. Because the first trading week consisted of two days in 2013 and two days in 2014 we can calculate how much was withdrawn in the last two days of 2013; that is 35873 Kg minus 19881 Kg, is 15992 Kg. So we have to add 16 tons to what I had recently reported as total Chinese gold demand in 2013; the exact total is (2181 + 16) 2197 tons.

The purple number is gold withdrawn in the prior reported week. That means weekly withdrawals diminished by 31.85 %. This could be explained  by the fact that jewelers purchased  large amounts of gold on the SGE in December to prepare for the sale around new year (on which I reported here). Now the sale is cooling down this is also reflected in lower SGE withdrawals. Gold demand may pick up this month as the Chinese will celebrate Chinese new year, the year of the Horse, on January 31, 2014, according to the Chinese Lunar calendar.


Overview Shanghai Gold Exchange data week 1


- 19.8 metric tonnes withdrawn from the SGE vaults in week 1 (02-01-2014 / 03-01-2014)

- 19.8 metric tonnes withdrawn from the SGE vaults year to date (that’s still more than the official gold reserves of Sri Lanka)

Source: SGEUSGS

For more information on SGE withdrawals read thisthisthis and this.

SGE withdrawals 2014 week 1

This chart shows SGE gold premiums based on data from the SGE weekly reports (it’s the difference between the SGE gold price in yuan and the international gold price in yuan). We can see gold premiums on the SGE are in an upward trend since November.

SGE gold premium


Below is a screen dump of the premium section of the SGE weekly report; the first column is the date, the third is the international gold price in yuan, the fourth is the SGE price in yuan, and the last is the difference.

SGE premiums



What I also saw was in the reports is that silver premiums are on the move, currently at 5 %. I didn’t track them throughout 2013 but I will from now on.

SGE silver premium