一名經人：何黨勝選無礙美元 - 羅家聰

股市仍悶，縱上周五午市歐洲三幣急插，但商品貨幣稍見轉強。雖然港股獨自飆升，不過外圍的金股歐幣皆隱然回落，金價欲穿1700，油價跌勢未改，連人仔也似掉頭，美?漸企穩80，至於日圓也穿80，但似是跟美?多於risk-on；縱有也是局部地區性。  


本 周美國大選揭盅。自1967年美?指數浮動以來(之前金本位各幣?價被鎖定)，總統是民主黨還是共和黨人，驟看未見與美?強弱有必然關係。美?升通常外圍 衰──1980年代初期如是，1990年代後期亦然。既然執政黨與美?無關，與外圍升跌亦然。換言之，就大升大跌市況而言，誰主白宮都可有任何結果，分別 未必如坊間所想般大。  


歐元一個月支持似破非破，不破可見1.3110，破則看1.26；但看來破的機會較大。英鎊較 淡，料試1.58邊。瑞郎照除。日圓80.60是位，破則分段看82及84，不破則看79邊；但破的機會較大。歐、日皆淡，但資金似換馬至商品貨幣。澳元 似造上升旗形，可上望1.0630/50。紐元可試0.8335造頭肩底；純技術講，破頸線不得了，0.90都可，但此說大膽，有可能其他貨幣不肯行而壞 了其形態。至於加元，亦可跟升見0.9850。美國數據強勁，金價料未跌完，起碼1650甚至1600美元才買。

China Is Quietly Becoming Gold Superpower

World’s Top Gold Producer Holding Onto All of Its Gold

While Western central banks have frittered away their gold, China is quietly building up its reserves.

China is the world’s largest gold producer.



And yet – according to various sources – gold bullion brokers have not seen any gold coming from China.

In other words, China is producing more gold than any other country, but isn’t exporting any of it.

In addition, china is importing huge amounts of gold.
As such, China is quietly becoming a gold superpower.
Note: China has a habit of being quiet for several years at a time, and then announcing big increases in gold holdings. So quoting old numbers will only mean that one is caught flat-footed as to China’s current holdings.

MCX new silver contract clocks record delivery

Contract witnessed an average daily open interest of 1,516 lots, of which 1,010 kg of kilo bar was delivered, with 66% of the open position 

 Press Trust of India / New Delhi Nov 04, 2012, 13:30 IST


Leading commodity bourse MCX today said its new one-kg silver contract has clocked a record delivery of 1,010 kg silver bars.
The Silver 1000, a monthly contract launched by Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) on September 27, is a first of its kind deliverable 1 kg silver contract with New Delhi as the base delivery centre.The exchange said in a statement that the contract has been receiving impressive response from market participants, especially small investors located in North India.

The contract witnessed an average daily open interest of 1,516 lots, of which 1010 kg of kilo bar was delivered, with 66% of the open position resulted in delivery.

Commending on the record volumes, MCX Managing Director and CEO Shreekant Javalgekar said that MCX is the world's first exchange to launch a kilo-bar deliverable contract in silver.

"The open interest witnessed by Silver 1000 contract demonstrates the commitment and conviction of the market participants in it," he said.

For delivery, MCX has notified one-kilo 999 purity silver bullion bar of MMTC-PAMP India private limited, a joint venture between Government-run MMTC Limited and PAMP SA of Switzerland.

MMTC-PAMP Director Rajesh Khosla said this is the first instance where products manufactured by a domestic refinery-cum-mint are listed as deliverable on the exchange.

Over the years the demand for silver has been increasing owing to the good returns generated by the precious metal.

Globe Capital Market Limited Founder Ashok Agarwal said that MCX's Silver 1000 contract has enabled its retail customer base in North India to take delivery of the product and it would make New Delhi one of the largest delivery centres of silver in India.

Riddhi Siddhi Director Mukesh Khotari said that market participants had to earlier take delivery of 30 kg silver bars, but MCX's Silver 1000 contract has elped them take delivery of one kg silver bar at lower margins.

Mumbai-based MCX is India's first listed, demutualised nationwide electronic commodity futures exchange and the various commodities traded on its trading platform include bullion, energy, metals and agri commodities.

金價結束連升四月之勢

石林....

大西洋的颶風肆虐紐約市，美國就業改善的清風則吹倒金銀市。

金市在剛過去的10月份曾漲抵1795.8元（美元．下同）的年內高水平，但仍低於去年11月的1802.8元高位，到月底回落至1720.2元收市，比9月份回跌2.87％，結束了早前連升四個月之勢。 

踏 入11月至今僅兩個交易天，金市跌勢轉急。特別是在上周末公布的美國上月非農業新職位增加17.1萬份，遠勝於預測的12.5萬份，金價跌穿了日前由亞洲 實金買盤所構建的支持關口1700元，直瀉至1674.5元的三個月低位。最後以1676.9元的偏低位收市，比前周下跌34.2元。

銀價在上月曾漲抵35.38元，惟低於今年2月的高位37.5元，月底以32.26元收市，比9月份回跌6.46％。而到上周末銀價亦直瀉至30.81元低位，最後以30.91元收市，比前周下跌1.18元。

目前金銀價分別跌去了數月前累積升幅約一半的幅度，此驗證了數周前敝欄的觀點，指金銀兩市將在圖表大型長方形內持續作整固，兩者價格會向該長方形中部找尋更大的支持。

現實與想像落差大

聯儲局把美國就業情況與貨幣政策的寬緊掛鈎，最近就業情況續見改善，使人們認為貨幣政策毋須過分寬鬆，這使很大程度靠QE3消息刺激而漲升的金銀價格大幅向下調整。

然而只靠消息公布乃屬於後知後覺，敝欄連續數周根據一些事實和數據，指出聯儲局近月其實並沒有大力進行QE實際操作，貝南奇本人深知政治與經濟的現實及後果，無心積極戀戰，表示不再尋求連任聯儲局主席一職。下面再談一些現實與想像的差異。

今 年第三季美國M2貨幣供應的流動速率進一步降至1.568，為上世紀五十年代以來的新低，這表示QE的實際成效遠低於估計。此外近一年來貨幣增長的按年速 率是從高峰遞降，M1增長速率從19.25％的高峰，下降到12.75％，M2增長速率從10.25％的高峰，下降到6.75％。還有自QE3宣布後至 今，美國貨幣基礎數量並無增升，反見減少，截至10月31日為2.641萬億元，比QE3宣布後的2.655萬億元為少。

最後，美國30年期對2年期的債息比率，在10月初曾升至12.57的一年高位，但到10月下旬已急跌至9.22的三個月低位。從上述數據可知，QE3推行背後的實際情形與人們的主觀想像，存有頗大的落差。

目前金銀市將日前的過分樂觀予以撇除，作出調整是合理的，美國就業情況改善只是送來一股可借用的清風而已。

牛熊決戰尚未完結

美 國大選結果快將揭曉，一般估計假若奧巴馬能連任總統將較有利於金價。但請同時留意國會改選的結果，無論誰當選總統，若然國會不是由同一黨派的議員佔多數， 或國會處於分裂狀態，那末更多的不安事情將會發生，巨大的財政懸崖（fiscal cliff）難以克服，不利於資產市場回揚。

金銀市調整還有一個內部牛熊雙方力量對比失衡的原因。敝欄數周前曾提及，金銀礦商及金銀銀行的沽倉對好倉比率過高是一個不穩訊號。金市的該比率現從3.02比1的高水平回落至2.54比1；銀市的該比率仍維持在2.45比1，數周來變化不太大，反映牛熊決戰尚未完結。

金市目前最接近的支持為1661元至1669元，若政經消息續不利，將有可能反覆下試至1630元的強力支持水平，而途中在1641元至1646元會有若干支持。回升阻力在1699元至1706元，最大的回升阻力則在1727元水平。

銀市當前最接近的支持為30.4元至30.75元，但有反覆下試29.65元至29.9元更強力支持的可能。回升阻力則在31.5元至30元，更大的回升阻力是在32.67元，而33.3元成為強大的阻力水平。

中長期而言，金銀牛市仍在持續，惟途中有較大調整是不奇怪的，在此過程中弄清楚「消息或事件」與「基本因素」的區別是有益處的。