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2012年6月9日星期六
Eric Sprott: GOLD ALERT
The latest Markets at a Glance newsletter touches on a few of the topics that Eric and I discussed in depth this morning in his interview with SilverDoctors which will be released this weekend discussing the European debt crisis, Thursday’s gold and silver raid, and tightness in the physical precious metals markets.
GOLD ALERT
By Eric Sprott and Shree Kargutkar
There have been key developments in the physical gold market over the last few weeks which we feel are worth highlighting:
1) The Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes1. It is not the data for April alone which has caught our eye. There has been a stunning increase of gold imports through Hong Kong for export into China over the past 2 years. Between May 2010 and April 2011, China imported a net 66 tonnes of physical gold through Hong Kong. Between May 2011 and April 2012, that number jumped to 489 tonnes. This represents an increase of 640%.
Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong
2) Central banks from around the world bought over 70 tonnes of gold in April, 2012. Data from the IMF showed developing countries such as the Philippines, Turkey, Mexico and Sri Lanka were significant buyers of gold as prices dipped2.
3) Iran purchased $1.2B worth of gold in April, 2012 through Turkey. As the developed nations continue devaluing their currency at the expense of developing nations, countries such as Iran, China and Mexico are forced to look at alternative stores of value3.
4) After twenty years of lackluster returns and stagnant bond yields, Japanese pension funds have finally discovered the value of investing in gold. The $500M Okayama Metal and Machinery pension fund placed 1.5% of its assets into gold bullion-backed ETFs in April in order to “escape sovereign risk”4.
5) Bill Gross writes5, “Soaring debt/GDP ratios in previously sacrosanct AAA countries have made low cost funding increasingly a function of central banks as opposed to private market investors. Both the lower quality and lower yields of previously sacrosanct debt therefore represent a potential breaking point in our now 40-year-old global monetary system. […] As they (investors) question the value of much of the $200 trillion which comprises our current system, they move marginally elsewhere – to real assets such as land, gold and tangible things, or to cash and a figurative mattress where at least their money is readily accessible”. Is the bond king recommending gold? YES, YES YES!
6) The Gold Mining ETF, GDX, has seen strong inflows in the past 3 months. The number of units outstanding have increased from 162.5M6 to roughly 187M7 between March 1, 2012 and May 31, 2012. This represents an increase in assets of almost $1.2B in a span of 3 months. It is worth pointing out that for a majority of this three months period, GDX, and by extension the gold mining companies were experiencing significant declines in their market values.
We believe there has been a material change in the gold investing landscape. The HUI, which is the Gold Bugs Index, is now up over 20% from its lows since May 16th, 2012. The slide in gold equities seems to be subsiding as a foundation for a strong move upwards is set. New buyers, represented by the Chinese, central banks, Japanese pension funds and the Iranians, bought almost 140 tonnes of gold in April alone. To put this into perspective, the annual gold production is approximately 2600 tonnes8. China and Russia produce around 500 tonnes of gold annually, which never makes it to the open market. This leaves about 2100 tonnes of gold production annually for the rest of the world.
When buyers representing 140 tonnes of new demand enter a market which only has 175 tonnes of monthly supply, we are left wondering about two things:
1) In a balanced market, where is the source of supply to the new buyers going to come from?
2) How can a new buyer of size get into the gold market, which is already balanced, without significantly impacting the price of gold?
The answer is fairly obvious. When demand outstrips supply, prices move higher. These significant macro changes in the supplydemand dynamic of the gold market should propel the price of gold to new highs.
Marc Faber : Gold Price already Hit Bottom
Marc Faber : "I'm not sure that Gold will not make a new high this year, but I think we've bottomed out and some gold mining shares have become very very inexpensive compared to the reserves they have. And i think that in the current environment where it is clear that the worse the economy becomes the more the money printers will be at work, that to own a currency whose supply can not be increased at the will of some clowns that occupy the central banks is a desirable investment." - in Bloomberg TV
London Trader - Staggering 515 Tons of Gold Sold in 4 Hours
With
many global investors still rattled by the recent price action in gold
and silver, today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get
his take on these markets. The source told KWN that not only was a
shocking amount of paper gold sold in just 4 hours yesterday, but it was
also confirmed that the mainstream media is not reporting the
staggering amount of physical gold that has actually been purchased by
China recently. Here is what the source had to say: “China
has purchased hundreds of tons of gold in the last couple of months.
China is not disclosing what their true reserves are. Russia is
delaying disclosure and so is Iran. We saw record gold imports of over
100 tons through Hong Kong to China in April, as reported by the
mainstream media, but what has been reported is just the tip of the
iceberg.”
The London Trader continues:
“What we've seen is a
dramatic acceleration of physical gold purchases as the price has been
drawn down. Staggering amounts of physical gold are being purchased.
The acceleration of physical purchases, at these lower levels, is the
reason why gold has been holding firm and building such a nice base.
“What happened yesterday in the gold market
was very interesting. One full hour before Bernanke's testimony, the
bullion banks started selling. Over the next 4 hours, the bullion banks
sold the equivalent of 515 metric tons of paper gold. This was in just
4 hours, and again, the selling started one hour before Bernanke’s
testimony.
The selling went on for
another 3 hours after the Fed Chairman began to speak, and as I said,
over 515 metric tons of paper gold was sold. During this entire
takedown, there was zero physical gold available for sale in the
market. However, this action did create tremendous supply for the
Eastern buyers to lock in the spot price of gold. This will patiently
be converted to physical in the coming weeks.
The real question here is,
how could an entity begin selling such a massive amount of paper gold
when there hadn’t been any news (starting to sell before Bernanke's
testimony)?
During this coordinated
attack on gold, hedge funds and managed money were being forced out of
their paper positions. A large wave of selling entered the paper gold
market and traders saw the price of gold drop $40 in a matter of
minutes. So the action was orchestrated by the Fed, and Fed-speak was
used to assist in the takedown.
On the opposite side, the
rise we saw last Friday was not a natural rise, it was a squeeze of the
hedge fund shorts. After squeezing the hedge fund shorts on Friday and
actually getting them to take on some long side exposure because gold
took out key resistance levels, they then dropped the gold market like a
stone yesterday. So the commercials are ringing the register at both
ends of the tape. But in reality, what the bullion banks are trying to
do is to get out of some of the massive naked short positions that are
on the books.
During all of the chaos of
the last couple of months, the Eastern hemisphere have been vacuuming
physical metal out of the market. However, supply is very tight out
there. As I mentioned earlier, no physical gold was for sale yesterday
during the takedown, just paper gold. Gold actually went into
backwardation, and silver has actually been in backwardation for weeks.
For immediate delivery of gold, in size, we are seeing delays, but
silver is extraordinarily backlogged.
Also, there was an
absolutely staggering amount of silver that was purchased by an Eastern
buyer three weeks ago near the $27 level. This order was breathtaking
in terms of the size. It is currently queued up at two refiners, but
has been backlogged for the last three weeks and running. In other
words, we are looking at serious backlogs for physical silver.
So as I said earlier, the
bullion banks are ringing the register at both ends, while trying to
extricate themselves from their short positions in the paper market.
They are attempting to do this before transparency comes in to the
market. They do not want a situation where the aggressive hedge funds
actually get evidence that these bullion banks are naked short.
They are concerned that if
it is discovered they are naked short gold and silver, those hedge funds
will aggressively target those banks. This is what happened to JP
Morgan, recently, when the London Whale got caught. As soon as Jamie
Dimon was forced to admit a $2 billion loss, the sharks realized they
were vulnerable and came in to attack. That has greatly magnified the
size JP Morgan’s loss. The last thing powerful entities want to see is
for this to occur in the gold and silver markets.”
分析師Kilburg：各國央行將點燃黃金 今年直沖2000美元
鉅亨網
這項展望讓投資人期待又怕受傷害：全球央行採取聯合行動，紓困歐洲，解救世界。
但周四的情況顯示各國之間，難以協調。第一，中國大陸亦升息亦降息。第二，Fed主席伯南克在國會進行聽證會，他的談話一如他在任期內所說：Fed準備採取行動，我們會保持警戒。
然而，Kilburg Capital公司分析師Jeff Kilburg認為，伯南克只是暫時按兵不動。
Kilburg說，Fed可能與其他國家央行同步採取行動。當這天來臨時，一項資產將掩蓋所有其他資產。「央行的聯合行動，將推高黃金價格，」他大聲說道。「大局而言，黃金將會走高。」
央行買盤，美元下跌，及12年之久的多頭市場動能，讓12年之久的多頭走勢將會持續。Kilburg想在各各層面做多黃金，包括買進黃金類股。
Kilburg建議在目前水準，買進黃金，預期1523美元為重要支撐。
他說：「我預期黃金將上漲至2000美元，沒錯，2000美元，今年秋季將會見到。」
這項展望讓投資人期待又怕受傷害：全球央行採取聯合行動，紓困歐洲，解救世界。
但周四的情況顯示各國之間，難以協調。第一，中國大陸亦升息亦降息。第二，Fed主席伯南克在國會進行聽證會，他的談話一如他在任期內所說：Fed準備採取行動，我們會保持警戒。
Kilburg說，Fed可能與其他國家央行同步採取行動。當這天來臨時，一項資產將掩蓋所有其他資產。「央行的聯合行動，將推高黃金價格，」他大聲說道。「大局而言，黃金將會走高。」
央行買盤，美元下跌，及12年之久的多頭市場動能，讓12年之久的多頭走勢將會持續。Kilburg想在各各層面做多黃金，包括買進黃金類股。
Kilburg建議在目前水準，買進黃金，預期1523美元為重要支撐。
他說：「我預期黃金將上漲至2000美元，沒錯，2000美元，今年秋季將會見到。」
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