Penny and Nickel Coins to be Phased Out in 2013

 過來兩年...美國認可的硬幣.
可能只剩下,用黃金和白銀所鑄做

Earlier this week Canada announced that they would be phasing out their penny coin.  On the heels of the Canadian announcement, U.S. Treasury Secretary, Tim Giethner stated in a press conference today that the U.S. Mint will remove the penny and nickel coins from circulation, starting early in January 2013.

Due to the rising costs of zinc and production related expenses, the U.S. Mint now spends 4.8 cents to make a penny.  And the cost of copper and nickel have inflated the cost to create a nickel coin to 16.2 cents.

Gone in 2013

In 2011, the U.S. mint made over 4.9 billion pennies, at a cost of $118 million to make.  That is $236 million to produce only $49 million worth of pennies, a loss of $187 million in minting costs.  Minting the nickel coin also represents a significant loss in revenue.
By comparison, the dime (which costs 9.2 cents to mint) and the quarter (21.31 cents) are economically more feasible, and will continue in circulation through 2013.  However, according to Giethner, the dime may be in jeopardy as early as 2014.
Once the phase out of pennies and nickels begins, merchants must be equipped to round all transactions to the nearest ten-cent increment.

If something costs $1.53, for instance, it will be rounded down to $1.50, and a transaction for $1.55 or higher will be rounded up to $1.60.  Credit card, debit and check payments would also be subject to the rounding rule.  It is expected that the rounding will not result in higher costs for purchases or losses for merchants.
Pennies and nickels will continue to hold their inherent cash value, and they can be traded in at financial institutions.  Banks will then return the coins to the mint for recycling into their base materials.  By mid 2013 it is expected that the penny and nickel will both be  mostly removed from the U.S. economy.

Silver to gold ratio

兩個唔同時期.所用的重量比例都唔一樣...點計個比率?

silver-coin-investor.com / By Bill Murray  (Canoe) / November 25, 2012

Here is another one.

In 1900 there was 1 billion ounces of gold at $20.00 per ounce = $20 billion

In 1900 there was 12 billion ounces of silver at .65 cents = $7.8 billion

Ratio in market cap is 20 billion divided by 7.8 billion = 2.5 to 1
The total amount of gold was worth two and a half times more than silver in 1900.

In 2012 there is about 5 billion ounces of gold at $1700.00 per ounce = $8.5 trillion dollars

In 2012 there is about 1 billion ounces of silver at $32.00 per ounce = $32 billion

Ratio in market cap is 8.5 trillion divided by 32 billion = 265 to 1
The total amount of gold today is worth 265 times more than silver.
Silver would have to go up 100 times to have the same market cap to gold as the year 1900.

Silver-Coin-Investor.com

印度禁止銀行貸款用於購金

石林

在談金市行情之前，請看上周二的一則新聞。

印度儲備銀行（RBI）禁止銀行貸款用於購買任何形式的黃金，包括：黃金半製成品、金磚金條、金飾、金幣，以及黃金ETFs、黃金互惠基金等，但珠寶商真正的營運資金除外。

該國此舉顯然是近年來試圖抑制黃金入口政策的繼續及一個嚴厲的措施。印度自2008年初至今，因經濟不前、經常賬赤字不斷創新高紀錄，導致其貨幣盧比（Rupee）先後發生兩次大貶值，累積貶值幅度最大曾達到31.5％。這反過來令當地金價飛漲到接近每盎斯10萬盧比大關的下沿。

印度不是產金國，卻是世界上最大的黃金買家，在2012年財政年度進口了約1067噸黃金，這是僅次於石油入口，造成龐大經常賬赤字的重大原因。因此當局近年就力圖壓抑黃金進口，措施包括在今年第二季將黃金進口從價稅倍增至4％，白銀進口稅則維持在6％，可是措施效果似不彰顯。

前周四（11月15日）世界黃金協會發表的《黃金需求趨勢》報告顯示，今年第三季印度金飾及零售投資需求仍較去年同季增長9％。印度當局翌日即採取新措施，在原有的關稅基礎上，對每10克黃金多加徵5美元稅款，每公斤白銀則多加徵46美元。到上周二更斷然推出禁止銀行貸款用於購金的措施，並勸阻投資者不要參與熾熱的投機活動。

兩類市場需求脫節

我們不應忽視上述消息的長遠影響。印度是佔全球黃金總消費三分一的國家，當局此舉定會某程度壓抑該國的黃金需求，並令全球實金市場與衍生市場（包括ETFs、期金、期權等）的需求更形脫節，甚至背馳。這樣一來，將使黃金價格結構基礎變得脆弱，風險增加。

回談近日金市表現，上周就是這兩類市場需求脫節，美國期金市場主導着短期市勢的一個例子。來自印度的消息未見帶來衝擊，相反在感恩節過後美期金市帶動金價升破1738元（美元．下同），直漲到1754.3元的五周來高位，並以偏高價1751.9元收市，比前周升2.22％。

自本月上旬起，投機資金又回流到期金市場，未平倉合約量從44.1萬張迅速湧增到上周末初步公布的49.4萬張水平。投機需求急增，蓋過了實金需求續降的可能，在兩類市場需求背馳中，前者在短期佔了上風。

投機者關注短期問題

聯邦儲備局在前周終於進行了QE3操作，打破人們對其是否只說不做的懷疑。上周雖無再做類似的操作，但OT操作到今年年底屆滿，市場關注明年初該局將會做些什麼。此外，財政懸崖問題諒會得到某種形式的解決，美國政府開支會避過要作懸崖式滑跌緊縮的危機，而國債上限須提升的問題又擺在面前。

另一方面，市場預期希臘債務問題談判會有進展，以上因素導致美元繼續向下調整，歐羅則再反彈。投機者對這些短期問題的興趣大於對實金需求可能下降的關注。

金市在本月初調整了接近前累積升幅之半至1672元，其後回升，目標是再試1800元大關的阻力，上周行情相信是在此路途中的一種表現。現時金價的良好支持水平上移至1734元，而前阻力1738元至1742元地帶則成為短期支持。1754元水平目前仍有若干阻力，惟頗有可能升破，繼後的阻力分別為1763元、1773元和1780元。

銀市現已升破33.4元的頗重要阻力，上周收市報34.13元，比前周升5.63％。大投機者一直不願平倉，以致投機需求處於相對高水平。現時銀價良好支持水平上移至32.9元，而前阻力33.4元變成短期支持，中短期市勢指向34.2元和35.2元。

實貨需求趨降始終是金銀兩市潛在的風險，但或要待印度進口金銀的確進一步減少的報告時才會顯現出來。

國際熱錢全面做空中國倒計時？

人民幣升值的最危險方式


張庭賓



    中國人民幣匯率正呈現出“違反市場規律”的怪現象。

    10月外匯占款日前被公佈，僅新增216.25億元，環比少增近1100億元，這一數據讓不少分析人士大跌眼鏡——因出現了兩種截然悖反的邏輯。

    邏輯之一：根據海關統計數據，10月份，中國貿易順差高達319.9億美元，創出4年來的新高；而10月份外商直接投資額為83.1億美元，兩項合計為403億美元，僅此兩項增加的外匯占款就應該達到2500億元人民幣，而現在少了約2300億元人民幣，只能理解為資本項目下的國際熱錢大量外流，人民幣如順應熱錢外流，應表現為貶值。

    邏輯之二：自9月13日美聯儲正式宣布推出QE3以來，人民幣不斷加速升值，從9月11日的美元兌人民幣6.3391升值到10月29日的6.2992，升值了0.634%；如果這是市場因素推動的升值，應該意味著國際熱錢大量流入。

    面對這兩個相悖的邏輯，唯一合理的解釋是：自9月中旬以來的人民幣急速升值，並非由於美聯儲QE3推動，國際熱錢大量流入中國所導致；而是在國際熱錢流出的同時，央行人為地逆市場而動，強行推動人民幣升值。

    即一邊國際熱錢外流，一邊人民幣繼續升值，客觀上創造了機會讓國際熱錢最大化收益離場。比如1億元美元國際熱錢是以1:8進入中國，它在中國股市、樓市、PE等泡沫中賺得盆滿缽滿後，已經很難賺更多，它要流回美國，最希望怎樣的人民幣匯率政策呢？人民幣繼續升值！這樣它就可以以6.3:1兌換回美元，將從中國外儲中拿走1.27億美元，即僅從投機中國匯率政策中就淨賺2700億美元，這還不包括其在國內賺的豐厚利潤。

    這個令國際熱錢非常滿意的匯率政策，卻非常不公平，因為它違背了最基本的市場規則——國際熱錢流入人民幣升值；熱錢流出，人民幣貶值，這才是天經地義，這才是真正的市場經濟。正常而合理的情況應當是，它來的人民幣兌美元1:8，走的時候是人民幣對美元8:1，那麼，中國即不虧也不賺，而今，是中國外匯儲備淨虧損了2700萬美元。

    千萬不要小覷了這種損失，如果在國際熱錢加速外流的情況下，人民幣仍然保持升值，甚至可能令過去10多年來中國積累的貿易順差和FDI都給吃掉了，即過去10多來國際上對中國的長期投資積累，中國億萬勞工和企業家的辛勤血汗勞動的成果，都可能被國際熱錢作為匯率暴利而吞噬掉。

    這並非是危言聳聽，今年2-9月，中國貿易順差和FDI累計增加1954億美元，但同期中國外匯儲備僅增長了314億美元，換言之，中國貿易順差和FDI僅僅勉強夠填補國際熱錢流走的缺口。

    本人曾經測算過，截止2008年4月份，潛入中國的國際熱錢本金約9600億美元左右（方法為，計算出基本沒有國際熱錢流入的1995-2002年外匯儲備平均增長率，以之推算到2008年4月，其數量為1.15萬億美元，而2008年4月中國的實際外儲餘額為2.114萬億），加上之後的熱錢流入和熱錢在中國國內的投資盈利，合計應該不低於2萬億美元，如果流出時再獲得20%的匯率溢價，則中國外匯儲備的大部分都會被侵蝕。鑑於現在外儲中美元資產約2萬億美元，甚至可能出現美元匯兌危機。

    這在2011年9月-2012年9月的中國外匯儲備和中國持有美國國債餘額變化中已有所反映。這一年中，中國外匯儲備增長314億美元，但中國持有美國國債反而減少了1005億美元，按照中國央行曾經三次暗度陳倉式購買美國國債累計達5414億美元（即購買當時未向國人公報，後被美國財政部公佈修正調高，分別為2010年2月調高1398億美元，2011年3月調高2684億美元，2011年9月調高1332億美元）的風格，如非剛性的兌付離境國際熱錢的美元需求，很難想像央行會因其他原因大幅減持美國國債數量。

    與此同時，無法迴避的是，隨著美國再工業化取得進展，其推動PTT（環太平洋自由貿易協議）國家替代中國出口，針對中國貿易保護的增加，在國際產業結構由過去的全球一體化向未來區域化轉向的大背景下，中國的貿易順差和FDI在未來不斷減少趨勢在所難免。即中國3.2萬億美元的外匯儲備的蛋糕並沒有想像的那麼大。如果有關部門繼續這種“割肉飼鷹”的匯率策略，中國外匯儲備不排除像烈日下的冰塊一樣迅速融化。

    特別需要警惕的是，國際熱錢的外流何時由量變到質變，由少量先知先覺的外流到大規模全面外流。在筆者看來，這個時間點很可能是國際熱錢全面做空中國的機製到位之時。

    這個機制包括三個關鍵點：1，大力做空股市的工具——轉融券正式出台，其一旦正式推出，可以調動數千上萬億元的股票彈藥，配合股指期貨做空中國股市，由此進一步抽緊中國經濟流動性；2，國債期貨，這是做空中國國債，引爆地方債務危機，大幅推高國內利率，緊縮國內流動性；3，外彙的看跌看漲期權，從而在資金進入中國時鎖定離場時的風險。

    以上三個機制，外彙的看跌看漲期權在2011年12月初已經正式推出，而最近有關部門透露，轉融券和國債期貨都將在今年年底前推出。

    毫無疑問，轉融券和國債期貨的推出，對於市場上的強者是一個很大的機會，或許也是完善市場機制的探索。但是有沒有考慮對國家金融經濟安全是否造成的重大衝擊呢？

    即假如在國際熱錢持續流出背景下，人民幣強行上漲一旦無以為繼，被迫下跌時；假如這時候恰好美國以色列發動對伊朗戰爭，波斯灣被封鎖；假如再恰好東亞地緣政治危機升級；假如又恰好中國轉融券和國債期貨推出，中國是否遭遇被全面做空的危機，我們還能夠捍衛改革開放30年來的最後成果嗎？

    這是一個必須有人提出來的問題，儘管這可能是一個杞人憂天的問題。 （中華元智庫創辦人，僅供參考，投資者決策風險自負，聯繫郵箱ztb6006@sina.com）

首批鉑金白銀ETF 下周三掛牌

 又多幾隻貴金屬ETF有港掛牌.......睇來對金銀價波動又大了..

澳洲金融機構ETF Securities的三隻貴金屬交易所買賣基金──ETFS實物黃金ETF（2830）、ETFS實物鉑金ETF（3119）及ETFS實物白銀ETF（3117）將於下周三掛牌，是本港首隻追蹤鉑金和白銀價格的相關產品。

參考昨天公布的基金認購章程，三隻產品的基準是按照黃金、鉑金或白銀以美元報出的倫敦定價計算，主要購買及持有這三種實物貴金屬，並可持有基金經理接納的貴金屬ETF的權益，包括ETF Securities在紐約掛牌的貴金屬ETF，但其佔基金資產淨值不會多於10%。

發行人表示，三隻產品不會進行其他類型的投資，例如衍生工具期貨合約、期權、掉期或認股權證等；同時，產品不會借出金、鉑金或白銀（即借貨予沽空投資者），亦不會從事任何種類的股票借貸活動或回購交易。

ETFS 實物黃金ETF將是本港第四隻黃金ETF，但鉑金和白銀的相關產品則是首次出現。根據風險因素，過去10年，白銀比黃金或鉑金價格的波動更大，原因是黃金 被許多投資者用作避險或對沖通脹和外滙風險的工作，而鉑金經常作為工業用金屬交易；白銀的需求很大比例來自工業，其價格同時受投資市場和工業市場影響，在 三種貴金屬中波動性最大，導致ETF價格波幅亦較大。

鉑金方面，生產國主要是南非和俄羅斯，數量明顯少於黃金和白銀，一旦這兩個國家的供應中斷，立即影響鉑金市場的流動性；另外，這兩個國家都是新興市場，與成熟市場比較，生產和供應中斷的風險較大，對ETF價格構成不利影響。

另外，實物A股ETF之一的南方A50（82822、2822）已符合資格，成為發行認股證（窩輪）的相關資產，港交所（388）昨天應窩輪發行商的要求，把南方A50加入合資格發行衍生權證名單，由下周二起可以申請發行相關窩輪。換言之，產品最快12月3日掛牌。

Silver Market Update

Recent action in silver has been very bullish. It barely paid lip service to the technical requirement to drop back and form a Right Shoulder to its Head-and-Shoulders bottom before breaking out of this base pattern back last Tuesday, without waiting for either gold to break out, or for the dollar to break down. When gold did actually break out on Friday, and the dollar broke down, it built on these achievements by breaking clear above the resistance near to its 50-day moving average.
On its 6-month chart we can see this strong action and how it is already on its way, launching into a new uptrend. In the last update we detailed 2 points to buy, 1 on a dip to about $31.50 to form the Right Shoulder. It did dip a little, but not so far, so we missed that chance to buy. The other point to buy was given as being on a closing break above $33 – that happened last Tuesday, so that’s when we were in, theoretically at least, and thus we caught the surge on Friday. It should carry on up now, with occasional pauses to consolidate, and the MACD indicator, which is still close to neutrality, shows that there is plenty of upside potential from here before it becomes overstretched.

The 3-year chart is useful as it makes clear the importance of the nearby resistance level in the $35 - $37.50 area. This resistance level has turned the price back 3 times over the past 14 months, including the recent highs in September and early October, so it will be an important positive technical development when the price breaks above this resistance. Once it does it should run swiftly at the next resistance level, but this one, and the one approaching the highs, are not so strong and once the price succeeds in clearing all these resistance levels and breaking out to clear new highs, then upside momentum should build quickly.

The long-term 13-year chart for silver, which shows the bullmarket in its entirety, is very interesting. Although it is obvious at first glance that silver is in a major uptrend, it is not that easy to immediately define the boundaries of this uptrend. Normally would draw a trendline under the lows, but on this occasion the uptrend is better defined by a trendline drawn across the highs. Searching then for a parallel lower trendline that fits, we find that if we ignore the freak 2008 lows, we get the fairly tidy parallel trendline fit shown. This is very important, as the correct definition of this uptrend enables us to define a probable target for the next major uptrend. As we can see, if silver now goes for a completed run at the upper boundary of this uptrend, and it looks likely given the terrible outlook for the dollar, then we could easily see it hit a target in the $90 area for the move starting now, which is not bad! With the price having just broken out of the corrective downtrend in force from the wild April – May 2011 highs, this major uptrend is believed to have just started.

The recent silver COTs have led to us adopting an excessively cautious stance in the past few weeks, as it turned out. While the Commercial short and Large Spec long positions certainly remain at a high level, and should be noted, there is nothing to say that these cannot expand to much higher levels during a continued uptrend, so that they “fly off the scale”. In addition, as we can also see on this chart, Open Interest is continuing to grow at a rapid rate. This is bullish and it is what preceded the 3 biggest ramps in the silver bullmarket to date.

The following chart, courtesy of The Scarborough Bullion Desk in England – Scarborough is a seaside town on the east coast of England which is famous, not just for the Scarborough Bullion Desk, but also for beach holidays for those who are into hypothermia in a big way – is most interesting as it shows the ballooning of Open Interest on 3 occasions ahead of the 3 biggest price ramps of the silver bullmarket – now it’s doing it again. Forget the scaling, which is awful, just compare the price with the Open Interest. Those of you who are familiar with silver price action in recent years will readily figure it out.

The outlook for the dollar is terrible – it has just broken lower from the Right Shoulder peak of a large Head-and-Shoulders top, and once it breaks down from the entire pattern it will be headed a lot lower. This is what looks set to be a big driver for the expected major uptrend in gold and silver. We look at the latest dollar charts in the parallel Gold Market update.
In conclusion, silver is viewed as having broken out last week to start a MAJOR uptrend, and thus it is certainly not too late to go long or add to existing positions, and one can guard against the (now considered remote) possibility of this rally being a B-wave trap by simply placing stops, either below the support at the Right Shoulder low at $32, or below the early November lows. 


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