“Everyone should keep gold in their portfolios” as the precious
metal will be able to offer value to investors even in a worst-case
scenario, said Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. “In the worst case scenario, in the systemic failure that I expect, it would still have some value,”
Faber, who is also the founder and managing director of Marc Faber
Ltd., said today at an event hosted by Evli Bank Oyj in Helsinki. Faber said his outlook was so bleak that he is “hyper bearish”. He joked that “sometimes I’m so concerned about the world I want to jump out of the window.”.. In response to a question from Yale University’s Robert Shiller querying the recommendation to hold gold,
Faber said: “I’m prepared to make a bet, you keep your U.S. dollars and I’ll keep my gold, we’ll see which one goes to zero first.”
Shiller, who is the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of
property values, responded “I’m inclined to think gold prices after this
crisis might return to a lower level. Given the low yields of the
alternatives [ie, bonds], the valuation of the stock market doesn’t look
so bad.” Faber, whose advice has protected millions of investors in
recent years, warned of a global systemic crisis possibly due to massive
size of the global derivatives market which is now worth over an
incredible $700 trillion. He warned “when the system goes down,”
and only plastic credit cards are left, “maybe then people will realize
and go back to some gold-based system.”
2013年1月24日星期四
Silver Shortage Spreads to Canadian Maples, Canadian Mint Begins Rationing Maples!
Over the weekend we gave SD readers a unique inside look at the developing shortage in silver from a wholesale perspective.
On Monday, we updated readers that the shortage appeared to be spreading to Canadian Maples, as wholesale premiums had been raised several times throughout the day.
The shortage of Canadian Maples has now been confirmed, as our primary suppliers at SDBullion have confirmed with us this morning that the Canadian Mint has begun allocating the supply/ purchases of 2013 Canadian Maples.
As we now have a confirmed shortage in the 2 most popular official silver coins, look for premiums to continue rising in the silver maples, as well as to spill over into other retail products such as 1 oz rounds, 10 oz bars, and 90% coins.
With silver demand skyrocketing while the metal continues its now 21 month consolidation, look for absolutely monstrous demand to surface as the next leg of the bull market kicks into gear over the next 6-12 months, particularly as silver clears $40 and again nears its all time nominal highs of $50.
It is very possible that extremely tight silver supply and ever increasing physical to paper premiums will continue to escalate throughout the duration of the coming bull leg.
On Monday, we updated readers that the shortage appeared to be spreading to Canadian Maples, as wholesale premiums had been raised several times throughout the day.
The shortage of Canadian Maples has now been confirmed, as our primary suppliers at SDBullion have confirmed with us this morning that the Canadian Mint has begun allocating the supply/ purchases of 2013 Canadian Maples.
As we now have a confirmed shortage in the 2 most popular official silver coins, look for premiums to continue rising in the silver maples, as well as to spill over into other retail products such as 1 oz rounds, 10 oz bars, and 90% coins.
With silver demand skyrocketing while the metal continues its now 21 month consolidation, look for absolutely monstrous demand to surface as the next leg of the bull market kicks into gear over the next 6-12 months, particularly as silver clears $40 and again nears its all time nominal highs of $50.
It is very possible that extremely tight silver supply and ever increasing physical to paper premiums will continue to escalate throughout the duration of the coming bull leg.
五幅圖展示你應該了解的黃金
2013年01月23日 22:11
文 /
若离
一幅圖可以告訴我們白銀是怎樣的投資。而對於市場規模遠超白銀的黃金，Visual Capitalist選擇以五幅圖分別呈現。首先看到的是黃金的歷史。數據來自世界黃金協會（WGC）、美國投資管理公司US Global Investors、美國國家礦業協會（NMA）與維基百科。從人類文明發端至今，所有開采的黃金都可以裝入一個20米的立方體內，地球上所有的黃金指環、王冠、金幣與金條合計17.13萬噸，這個立方體就可以容納。
走過四大文明古國時期、古羅馬帝國時期，直至北美大陸淘金潮，如今有3.1萬噸黃金沉睡在各國政府、央行和國際機構。
黃金是極為特殊的多功能金屬。人類發展歷程中，黃金的應用佔據著人類史上無法取代的地位。位。
接下來是黃金的開採與供應。
黃金在冰川沉積層中第一個被發掘。 2008年金融危機以來，因為金價上漲，越來越多的人選擇了回收利用的黃金。 2002-2011年，這類黃金供應增長了93%。
黃金礦藏減少，同時開采的成本增加。
現代國家多數持有黃金儲備。各國央行持有佔資產比重較小的黃金作為減少風險的儲備。
美國持有黃金8133.5噸，價值4200億美元。葡萄牙的黃金持倉佔儲備總規模的90.5%，這一比例全球最高。
黃金在冰川沉積層中第一個被發掘。 2008年金融危機以來，因為金價上漲，越來越多的人選擇了回收利用的黃金。 2002-2011年，這類黃金供應增長了93%。
黃金礦藏減少，同時開采的成本增加。
現代國家多數持有黃金儲備。各國央行持有佔資產比重較小的黃金作為減少風險的儲備。
美國持有黃金8133.5噸，價值4200億美元。葡萄牙的黃金持倉佔儲備總規模的90.5%，這一比例全球最高。
然後是黃金的用途與需求。
黃金主要有三大用途：40%用於投資、50%用於珠寶、10%用於技術。
按需求國家來看，中印兩國人口最多，也是全球最大的黃金購買國。
在印度，黃金等同於財富，有“無金不婚嫁”的說法。但在中國，個人財富累積是更大的黃金消費因素。
2011年第四季度，中國的黃金需求超過了印度。
接著是用作投資的黃金。圖表數據來自世界黃金協會（WGC）、美國聖路易斯聯儲、美國投資管理公司US Global Investors、華爾街日報、維基百科。
2000年以來，黃金在12年裡有9年業績超過標普500。
按如今的價格水平，如果2000年買入黃金，已經達到600%的回報。
黃金與外貿權重的美元指數有很強的負相關性。
2010年以來，全球央行已經變為黃金的淨買家，持有黃金約3.5萬噸，約佔全球已開採黃金的20%。20%。
最后我们看黄金储量排行。
匯豐銀行過去12個月內從波蘭買入8.76億美元白銀
匯豐銀行在過去12個月內，從波蘭銅業集團（KGHM）買入價值8.76億美元（36.5億波蘭茲羅提）的白銀，後者是全球最大白銀生產商之一，也是全球第二大精煉白銀生產商。
據波蘭銅業集團的市場文件顯示，2013年，該集團與匯豐銀行簽署了估價16.7億波蘭幣茲羅提的白銀買賣協議。這份協議也使得過去12個月內雙方的白銀交易量達到了36.5億茲羅提。
波蘭銅業集團生產的銀條是屬於KGHM HG牌下的，由倫敦金銀市場協會和迪拜多種商品交易中心頒布的證明來進行認證。
過去幾年，波蘭白銀的主要買家主要是英國、德國和比利時，現在，匯豐銀行也成了其主要買家之一。
截至1月22日，全球最大白銀ETF iShares白銀信託的白銀持有量為1.0689萬噸，較2012年底的水平上漲了604.9噸，或將近6%。
下圖為彭博白銀ETF指數從2008年至今的走勢：
2010年至2013年白銀價格日均變化走勢圖：
匯豐銀行並沒有對這筆交易作出評論，該消息的曝光只是因為KGHM作為一家上市公司，需要在報告中公佈交易明細資料，而這個事實恰好被波蘭媒體所發現。
據波蘭銅業集團的市場文件顯示，2013年，該集團與匯豐銀行簽署了估價16.7億波蘭幣茲羅提的白銀買賣協議。這份協議也使得過去12個月內雙方的白銀交易量達到了36.5億茲羅提。
波蘭銅業集團生產的銀條是屬於KGHM HG牌下的，由倫敦金銀市場協會和迪拜多種商品交易中心頒布的證明來進行認證。
過去幾年，波蘭白銀的主要買家主要是英國、德國和比利時，現在，匯豐銀行也成了其主要買家之一。
截至1月22日，全球最大白銀ETF iShares白銀信託的白銀持有量為1.0689萬噸，較2012年底的水平上漲了604.9噸，或將近6%。
下圖為彭博白銀ETF指數從2008年至今的走勢：
2010年至2013年白銀價格日均變化走勢圖：
匯豐證券的首席大宗商品分析師James Steel繼續看好白銀市場，最近他表示，對於2013年的白銀市場持“溫和看漲”的態度。
匯豐銀行並沒有對這筆交易作出評論，該消息的曝光只是因為KGHM作為一家上市公司，需要在報告中公佈交易明細資料，而這個事實恰好被波蘭媒體所發現。
Gold Refiners Required to Report All Gold Movement
The Feds have noticed the gold market and are requiring the tracking
of all shipments. These regulations are clearly targeting the
“underground” economy. The interesting aspect is there seems to be no
such reporting regarding platinum.
Coin Conventions have been cancelled in France. Even when I was there before Christmas, you could get 1,000 Swiss at an ATM in Switzerland, 500 euro in Germany, but in Paris, the maximum was 200. The French are trying to eliminate cash forcing everything into a traceable transaction.
Those who preach gold will go to $10,000 to $30,000, are insane, the entire would would collapse first. They act that you will become rich beyond your wildest imagination. For that to happen, an apartment will also be $10,000 a month for a one bedroom in the sticks. Government will know everyone who has ever bought gold and troops will show up to confiscate what you have. This is no walk in the park. There is a full scale war against wealth underway. They think if they can just take what they need from the people, they will hold on to power. They refuse to comprehend they are destroying our way of life in the process and they will NEVER be able to confiscate enough to prevent the collapse.
armstrongeconomics.com/
Coin Conventions have been cancelled in France. Even when I was there before Christmas, you could get 1,000 Swiss at an ATM in Switzerland, 500 euro in Germany, but in Paris, the maximum was 200. The French are trying to eliminate cash forcing everything into a traceable transaction.
Those who preach gold will go to $10,000 to $30,000, are insane, the entire would would collapse first. They act that you will become rich beyond your wildest imagination. For that to happen, an apartment will also be $10,000 a month for a one bedroom in the sticks. Government will know everyone who has ever bought gold and troops will show up to confiscate what you have. This is no walk in the park. There is a full scale war against wealth underway. They think if they can just take what they need from the people, they will hold on to power. They refuse to comprehend they are destroying our way of life in the process and they will NEVER be able to confiscate enough to prevent the collapse.
armstrongeconomics.com/
Silver Becoming More Rare Than Gold?
It may seem counter-intuitive, as there is less availability of gold in any given mine than there is silver, but considering that silver is used in everything from electronics to medical technology, it may not be out of the question to suggest that silver is actually becoming more rare than gold.
From the Sound Money Campaign:
In 1950 there were 10 billion ounces of above-ground available silver. By 1980 it shrank to 3.5 billion ounces. And, in 2012 it is estimated that above-ground available silver supply is 1 billion ounces. To put this into perspective, total above ground available gold in 1950 was about 1 billion ounces and today it’s estimated to be around 6 billion ounces.
Silver Bars Being Secured By HSBC – Buys $876 Million Worth From Poland
From GoldCore
Silver Bars Being Secured By HSBC – Buy $876 Million Worth From Poland
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,692.25, EUR 1,268.84, and GBP 1,066.19 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,692.50, EUR 1,268.17, and GBP 1,068.36 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $32.33/oz, €24.32/oz and £20.46/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,700.50/oz, palladium at $725.00/oz and rhodium at $1,200/oz.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold climbed $6.40 or 0.4% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,690.50/oz. Silver slipped to $31.79 in London, but it then climbed to a high of $32.34 in New York and finished with a gain of 1%.
Gold hovered near a 1 month high on Wednesday supported by loose monetary policies of central banks. There are renewed hopes regarding U.S. debt ceiling talks and the U.S. House of Representatives plans to pass a bill on the almost 4 month extension of the borrowing limit.
Total Known ETF in Silver, Jan 2008-2013 – (Bloomberg)
Silver has now rallied for 7 days due to the flood of inflows into silver backed ETF’s and investment demand for coins and bars internationally. Analysts polled by Reuters expect silver to rise in 2013.
Holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, stood at 10,689 tonnes on Jan. 22, up 604.9 tonnes, or nearly 6 percent, from the end of 2012.
By comparison, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold ETF, saw an outflow of nearly 15 tonnes so far this year.
This has helped silver prices rally over 6% so far this year and 4.5% last week alone. The close above $32/oz yesterday was bullish technically and could lead to silver testing the next level of resistance which is at $34/oz.
The U.S. Mint has sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins and will resume sales the week of January 28 when the US Mint said inventory would be replenished.
Chinese silver turnover surged to 2,200 tonnes on Friday and analysts say Chinese investor’s interest in silver is continuing to rise as many are looking at silver as a cheaper alternative to gold.
Hence, trading volumes for the precious metal on the SGE soared in 2012.
Silver bullion imports by China remain robust too. Silver imports were 228 metric tons in December, according to data released by the customs agency.
There are also rumours that Apple is experiencing delays in producing the new iMac due to difficulty in sourcing industrial silver in volume in China. More silver than is typically used is utilised in the new 21.5" Apple iMacs.
HSBC Buying KGHM Silver Bars
HSBC has quietly moved into acquiring large amounts of silver bullion.
The bank has secured another deal to buy silver bars from KGHM which brings their total purchases of silver from KGHM alone in the last 12 months to $876 million or PLN 3.65 billion.
KGHM is one of the largest producers of silver in the world and is the second-largest producer of refined silver in the world.
They produce silver bars registered under the brand KGHM HG that are attested to by “Good Delivery” certificates issued by the London Bullion Market Association and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre.
Silver Daily, 2010-1013 – (Bloomberg)
Listed metals producer KGHM signed an estimated PLN 1.67 billion deal on 2013 sales of silver to HSBC, KGHM said in a market filing yesterday.
The deal puts the total value of deals between KGHM and HSBC in the last 12 months to PLN 3.65 billion or $876 million, the filing read.
The Management Board of KGHM announced that on 21 January 2013 a contract was entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch for silver sales in 2013.
The estimated value of the contract is PLN 1,672,260,469.66. As a result of entering into this contract, the total estimated value of contracts entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch over the last 12 months exceeded 10% of the equity of the Company and amounts to PLN 3,654,120,061.59.
The highest-value contract signed during this period is the above-mentioned contract. The criteria used for describing the contract as significant is that the total estimated value of the contracts exceeds 10% of the equity of KGHM.
KGHM is one of the largest companies in Poland and one of the largest mining & metallurgy companies in the world.
The main customers of Polish silver in recent years have been the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium. HSBC appears to be one of their main customers now.
Respected and erudite, James Steel, the chief commodity analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. continues to be bullish on silver and recently said how “silver tends to track gold, except it over performs in a bull market” and how he was “moderately bullish on silver” in 2013.
XAG/GBP Daily, 2010-2013 – (Bloomberg)
XAG/EUR Daily, 2010-2013 – (Bloomberg)
HSBC did not comment on the deal and it only came to light as KGHM is a listed company and had to report the deal which was then picked up in Polish media.
The massive deal could simply be HSBC securing supply for the NYSE listed ETFS Physical Silver as they are the custodian.
Or it could be that senior people in HSBC are concerned about securing supply as they expect robust investment demand to continue and possibly increase resulting in higher prices.
Silver Bars Being Secured By HSBC – Buy $876 Million Worth From Poland
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,692.25, EUR 1,268.84, and GBP 1,066.19 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,692.50, EUR 1,268.17, and GBP 1,068.36 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $32.33/oz, €24.32/oz and £20.46/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,700.50/oz, palladium at $725.00/oz and rhodium at $1,200/oz.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold climbed $6.40 or 0.4% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,690.50/oz. Silver slipped to $31.79 in London, but it then climbed to a high of $32.34 in New York and finished with a gain of 1%.
Gold hovered near a 1 month high on Wednesday supported by loose monetary policies of central banks. There are renewed hopes regarding U.S. debt ceiling talks and the U.S. House of Representatives plans to pass a bill on the almost 4 month extension of the borrowing limit.
Total Known ETF in Silver, Jan 2008-2013 – (Bloomberg)
Silver has now rallied for 7 days due to the flood of inflows into silver backed ETF’s and investment demand for coins and bars internationally. Analysts polled by Reuters expect silver to rise in 2013.
Holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, stood at 10,689 tonnes on Jan. 22, up 604.9 tonnes, or nearly 6 percent, from the end of 2012.
By comparison, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold ETF, saw an outflow of nearly 15 tonnes so far this year.
This has helped silver prices rally over 6% so far this year and 4.5% last week alone. The close above $32/oz yesterday was bullish technically and could lead to silver testing the next level of resistance which is at $34/oz.
The U.S. Mint has sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins and will resume sales the week of January 28 when the US Mint said inventory would be replenished.
Chinese silver turnover surged to 2,200 tonnes on Friday and analysts say Chinese investor’s interest in silver is continuing to rise as many are looking at silver as a cheaper alternative to gold.
Hence, trading volumes for the precious metal on the SGE soared in 2012.
Silver bullion imports by China remain robust too. Silver imports were 228 metric tons in December, according to data released by the customs agency.
There are also rumours that Apple is experiencing delays in producing the new iMac due to difficulty in sourcing industrial silver in volume in China. More silver than is typically used is utilised in the new 21.5" Apple iMacs.
HSBC Buying KGHM Silver Bars
HSBC has quietly moved into acquiring large amounts of silver bullion.
The bank has secured another deal to buy silver bars from KGHM which brings their total purchases of silver from KGHM alone in the last 12 months to $876 million or PLN 3.65 billion.
KGHM is one of the largest producers of silver in the world and is the second-largest producer of refined silver in the world.
They produce silver bars registered under the brand KGHM HG that are attested to by “Good Delivery” certificates issued by the London Bullion Market Association and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre.
Silver Daily, 2010-1013 – (Bloomberg)
Listed metals producer KGHM signed an estimated PLN 1.67 billion deal on 2013 sales of silver to HSBC, KGHM said in a market filing yesterday.
The deal puts the total value of deals between KGHM and HSBC in the last 12 months to PLN 3.65 billion or $876 million, the filing read.
The Management Board of KGHM announced that on 21 January 2013 a contract was entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch for silver sales in 2013.
The estimated value of the contract is PLN 1,672,260,469.66. As a result of entering into this contract, the total estimated value of contracts entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch over the last 12 months exceeded 10% of the equity of the Company and amounts to PLN 3,654,120,061.59.
The highest-value contract signed during this period is the above-mentioned contract. The criteria used for describing the contract as significant is that the total estimated value of the contracts exceeds 10% of the equity of KGHM.
KGHM is one of the largest companies in Poland and one of the largest mining & metallurgy companies in the world.
The main customers of Polish silver in recent years have been the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium. HSBC appears to be one of their main customers now.
Respected and erudite, James Steel, the chief commodity analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. continues to be bullish on silver and recently said how “silver tends to track gold, except it over performs in a bull market” and how he was “moderately bullish on silver” in 2013.
XAG/GBP Daily, 2010-2013 – (Bloomberg)
XAG/EUR Daily, 2010-2013 – (Bloomberg)
HSBC did not comment on the deal and it only came to light as KGHM is a listed company and had to report the deal which was then picked up in Polish media.
The massive deal could simply be HSBC securing supply for the NYSE listed ETFS Physical Silver as they are the custodian.
Or it could be that senior people in HSBC are concerned about securing supply as they expect robust investment demand to continue and possibly increase resulting in higher prices.
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