James Turk - Gold & Silver To Overrun Central Planners

Today James Turk told King World News that this move in gold and silver may be the start of the “big one.” Turk also warned if that is the case, then we are nearing the point where gold and silver buyers will, “... totally overrun the central planners.” 

Here is what Turk had to say:  “The precious metals have been exhibiting exceptional strength, Eric, and I am not just talking about their big gains in price.  I am referring to the way they have been trading. Their extraordinary strength is clearly visible on an intraday chart.  Both precious metals have been forming the same pattern going back to the lows in August when gold was under $1600 and silver was under $30.”

James Turk continues:

The price of gold and silver jumps, but then something rare happens.  Instead of falling back in a correction to consolidate their price gains, which is normal trading action and therefore to be expected, gold and silver just move sideways.  Then, after a few days, they again score another big jump in price, followed by another sideways move.  If you look at their charts for the last few weeks, there have not been any normal pullbacks.

This trading action confirms the point I have been making in our recent interviews....

“There is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to enter a market in which physical metal is tight.  When you couple that with the amount of shorts looking to cover, gold and silver are not being given any opportunity to correct in the normal way with a typical pullback. 

Buyers are not giving the precious metals a chance to correct.  Their price just moves sideways, thus thwarting the selling from central planners who do not want to see the precious metals move higher.  A sideways consolidation is one of the strongest patterns you can find in a bull market, so the way gold and silver have been trading bodes well for more big price gains in the weeks and months ahead. 

In fact, Eric, I keep asking myself whether this remarkable display of strength is telling us something important.  Is it a subtle signal that we are at the beginning of an uptrend that will not only lead to new record highs, but is this the beginning of the move that in the next few months will result in the ‘big one,’ when gold and silver buyers totally overrun the central planners?  

Only time will tell of course, but the ‘big one’ will be spectacular.  Gold and silver will just keep climbing in panic buying because people will be rushing out of all types of paper in order to protect their wealth by buying physical gold and physical silver.

I have been expecting this ‘big one’ for some time - and recommending that everyone patiently accumulate physical metal while waiting for it.  It will happen because the reality is that the market is bigger than any government or group of governments acting in concert to manipulate prices with their interventions.

Governments intervene because they don't like the message that the market is giving them.  They think they can create a new reality, but they can't.  Eventually, their interventions just distort the market process and prevent true price discovery that actually reflects prevailing conditions.  So these interventions are always doomed to failure. 

Just look at the dozens of currency collapses since WWII.  Each one is plain evidence that currencies backed by nothing but central planner promises are doomed.  When their collapse occurs, gold and silver do not pull back in a normal correction.  They just keep heading higher.

There are other signs that are pointing out that this may be the ‘big one’ besides the way gold and silver are trading.  Look at the dollar, which has been heading south for several weeks now.  Its chart looks terrible, and suggests the flight from paper is building.  The same conclusion can be reached by looking at US Treasuries.

Even though the Fed has said it will keep long-term interest rates low, T-bond and T-note yields are creeping up.  It is another sign that money is fleeing paper, but here's the important point, Eric, we cannot predict the future, but we all intuitively know a safe-haven when we see one, and that of course means gold and silver.  They are the ultimate safe haven because they do not have counterparty risk.

Silver Market Update

The strong uptrend in silver of the past several weeks is believed to mark the start of a major uptrend that should take the price comfortably to new highs before it’s done. On the 12-year log chart for silver below we can see that this uptrend is still in its infancy, as it has a target at the top channel return line shown, which means it should get to over $60 on this advance, a modest objective given the stunt pulled by the SPSC (Silver Price Supporters Club) over at the Fed last week. 



   
Silver is approaching an inner trendline that appears to still have some validity, the pale blue trendline shown on the chart, and given that this coincides with a resistance level shown on the 2-year chart below and that silver is now critically overbought short-term, and also that its COT readings are at extreme levels, and also that the good news is now on the street, a period of consolidation or a minor reaction here looks likely, which would set up the next upleg. Before leaving the 12-year chart note the momentum breakout shown by the MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart. 







 
Silver’s 2-year chart makes plain that it has now broken out decisively from the long corrective downtrend in force from April – May of last year. Moving averages are now swinging into bullish alignment again for the first time in a long time and we should soon see the “Golden Cross” where the 50-day moving average rises up through the 200-day, and the latter turns up, which will be a sign that the new uptrend is becoming established. Silver is now critically overbought on its RSI indicator shown at the top of the chart, which suggests that it is likely to take a rest soon before continuing higher – most likely it will consolidate for a while, and perhaps react back somewhat – but it is not expected to react back much, given that the Fed last week hooked up the fire hoses to the gas pump with every intention of spraying gasoline on the spreading fires of inflation. This makes perfect sense from their point of view, as the massive QE now set in motion will enable them to continue to enrich their crony pals in the banks and on Wall St by simply passing this spirited into existence money straight to them, and by propping up the bond market, and pass the bill for this munificence on to the middle and lower classes via roaring inflation and a zero return on savings.
The 6-month chart for silver shows recent action in much more detail. On this chart we can see the powerful, steep uptrend of recent weeks, that has in part been fuelled by panic short covering, of course, and last week got an extra boost from the grandstanding by the Fed, which was on a scale that surprised even those expecting QE, for not only did they announce QE, but they even went as far as promising that it would be open-ended, and also their intention to clamp interest rates near to zero for another year, until 2015. This is all music to the Precious Metals markets of course, and all but guarantees ongoing strong uptrends. Nevertheless, we can see that silver is heavily overbought here short-term with several technical factors pointing to it needing to take a rest before continuing higher, and this fits with the fundamental situation as all the good news is now out and on the street. 


     
One technical factor pointing to silver needing to take a breather here is the latest COTs. On the COT chart below we can see that Commercial short positions are about to fly off the scale, with Large and Small Spec long positions being at very high levels too, and here we should note that this data is only up to date as of last Tuesday, so Thursday’s spike in the silver price can reasonably be expected to have driven these positions to even more extreme levels. This makes a period of consolidation or a reaction here likely before the uptrend continues towards our objective at new highs.
    Original Source 

貸評山下：無限QE＝國王的新衣 - 黃元山

無限QE一出，所有市場都有即時正面反應；無限QE會否使資產市場進一步泡沫化，是投資者最關心的事。

但要評論之前，我們要搞清楚無限QE的「是」和「不是」：
1、無限QE不是要增加貨幣總量：如果說QE是「印銀紙」，只是答對了一半；當利息達到零之後，有不少證據顯示，擴大聯儲局的資產負債表，不能增大信貸增長和貨幣總量。

MBS已升價非毒債
2、無限QE不是要「救銀行」：有說聯儲局今次買MBS(按揭抵押證券)，是等於從銀行手上接回「毒債」，使銀行可以恢復健康做多點信貸。現實是，MBS不一定是次按，而且MBS的價格已經大幅上升，不可以再稱為毒債。

3、無限QE不是要「救樓市」：有人顧名思義，見今次買MBS非國債，就以為是救樓市。現實是，美國樓市已經開始尋底，而且，如果市場有流通性(而非segmented)，買國債已經能夠幫助MBS；相反，如果MBS市場是segmented的，買了MBS也不能幫助整體經濟。

4、無限QE不是要推低利息：圖表顯示，利息下降是在QE開始之前，而非之後；有證據顯示，利息下降不是因為市場預期聯儲局會買債，而是因為聯儲局的聲明和動作，對市場發出了對經濟前景極度悲觀的信息。經濟前景不好，利息自然下降。

無限QE是甚麼？
1、無限QE必須配合政府財政開始，才是真正的印銀紙；換句話說，印銀紙是政府一邊花錢，一邊舉債借貸，聯儲局就在另一邊全力買債支持。問題是，無論是哪一個黨上場，削赤是主流；大幅印銀紙的如意算盤，未必能打響。

2、無限QE是有政治考慮：買MBS而不買國債，既然沒有實際上的影響，想必跟PR宣傳有關，可以藉此展示對美國老百姓的幫助。

3、無限QE是要做到名義GDP水平標靶(Nominal GDP level targeting)：內地「半市場半計劃」經濟，從來都是做這個Nominal GDP level targeting；現在美國也要朝這個方向走，希望透過推高通脹，刺激投資和消費信心。問題是，聯儲局已經踏入一個前所未有的新領域，它不再單單滿足於價格穩定，而是對它的另外一個mandate——失業率下降(經濟增長)，也希望扮演舉足輕重的角色。

冇人相信恐變笑柄
4、無限QE是國王新衣。要做到Nominal GDP level targeting， 聯儲局就是要所有人都信任它的能力；所有人越快相信它的能力，它需要「落藥」便越少。問題是，所有人越早相信它，經濟和通脹真的重拾升軌，它便會越快改變「永不加息」的承諾(2015年中)；換句話說，聯儲局唯一的武器，就是要所有人相信它；但你越信它，你便越容易受到傷害！結果，無限QE可能變成國王新衣，不單沒有人相信，更會成為眾人笑柄。

QE3下哪類商品最受惠？

郭澄

美國推出第三輪量化寬鬆（QE3）政策，且力度比市場預期大，未來環球資金氾濫的局面將持續。貨幣貶值，商品價格隨之上升。過去一年來，在需求下降的影響下，價格持續向下的金、銀及其他金屬等商品，終於迎來大反彈。不過，香港上市的各類商品股，大多仍受制於內地的需求，目前到底哪類商品才能真正左右逢源呢？

聯儲局維持低息至2015年中期，又將每月購買400億美元住房抵押貸款（MBS）。此舉最終能否挽救美國經濟，目前市場仍有爭議，但至少在資金充裕的情況下，貨幣貶值、商品價格難再下跌似乎是具有市場廣泛共識的看法。

黃金由累贅變王牌

但其實，除了市場貨幣供應的影響之外，鋼鐵及鋁材等與工業及基建相關產品，亦受到經濟復蘇速度及需求增減所左右。今年以來，中國私人房地產及政府基建投入方面，均出現增長放緩的情況，各類金屬產品需求減少、價格下跌。

以鋼鐵為例，目前價格屬兩年半以來的最低位。但價格下跌的同時，中國卻未有減少生產，8月中國國內鐵礦石產量按年上升10.4%，至1.166億噸。中國鋼鐵嚴重供過於求，產品賣不出門，不少企業要以蝕本價銷售，中小型鋼鐵企業紛紛倒閉。

雖然近期內地先後公布包括鐵路、公路等多項基建計劃，有望推動鋼鐵需求，但項目上馬需時，過剩的供應短期內或難以完全消化。所以，內地鋼鐵類股份，要由虧損中恢復過來，仍需要一段較長時間。

相反，眾多金屬之中，黃金與工業及建築等項目的關聯性較低，但與貨幣的關聯性較大。在歷史上曾被當作貨幣使用的黃金，在紙幣貶值的影響下，再次受到追捧。此前不少看淡黃金的人，亦開始轉軚。

本來不偏好黃金的瑞銀首席經濟師賀安卓更認為，黃金已「從累贅到王牌」，只因在量寬之下，通脹極可能來臨，令貨幣貶值，推高金價。而就算沒有通脹甚至出現通縮的話，黃金仍有望堅守陣地。例如1930年代的大蕭條，黃金便是少數沒有通縮的資產之一。

QE1、2平均金價升三成

參考QE1及QE2，國際黃金價格分別由約900美元的水平升至約1200美元，以及由約1400美元升至超過1900美元。每次升幅均超過三成，今次黃金升勢會否出現同樣的效果，值得關注。

今年以來，黃金價格一直處於較低水平，令印度及中國兩大黃金消費國的需求亦受到打擊。世界黃金協會的統計顯示，第二季全球黃金需求降至990噸，同比下降7%，而黃金消費第一大國──印度，消費者黃金需求下大降38%。

消費需求雖然有所下跌，但投資需求仍在上升，數據顯示，除印度及中國之外，主要來自歐洲黃金零售投資需求上升了16%。在量寬之下，相信市場對黃金的投資及消費需求將進一步拉高。中證監便計劃最快下月推出首批中國的黃金ETF產品，以滿足黃金投資需求。

目前，在工業復蘇前景未明朗之下，投資黃金似乎比其他金屬及商品更穩陣。昨天金礦股招金（1818）升逾15%，另外兩隻金飾股景福（280）及六福（590）同樣有愈一成的升幅。預計在黃金周及QE3效應催谷下，黃金尤其是金飾，可望做到左右逢源，股價繼續向上。