金銀小甲蟲-談金論銀: 15/12/11

2011年12月15日星期四

英銀行家豪花逾7萬鎊開聖誕派對

【on.cc 東方互動專訊】英國經濟不景氣，但據《每日郵報》報道，倫敦一名對沖基金擁有者與9名職員，上周三晚在一間會所開豪華聖誕派對，期間他們購買大批貴酒，連侍應小費亦高達1萬英鎊，該名基金擁有者更一度將50英鎊鈔票向上拋，然後觀看美女在地上執的情況。整個通宵派對共花去71,000英鎊。

The Coming Collapse might be your Final Chance to Legally Buy Physical Gold this Decade

By John Galt
December 14, 2011 – 07:15 ET
The current European implosion is bringing about a probable once in a lifetime opportunity which sadly might just be the last chance this decade to buy physical gold before capital controls worldwide and within the U.S. make it difficult if not impossible. The history of economic strife and plans by world governments to impose massive restrictions on the flow of funds to prevent internal collapse make gold an attractive target for seizure as political failings along with management of command control economies demand the removal of all instruments which could allow independent transactions by the citizenry.
The central banks of the Western world are already grasping at straws as nations like Greece and Italy have already imposed stealth capital controls and the United States begins implementation of its restrictions after December 31, 2012. This imposition of restrictive monetary policies has made gold an attractive instrument for moving wealth overseas, especially using the electronic or digital gold option via the various instruments like GLD and ownership instruments in foreign vaults as in the Perth mint and elsewhere. The “paper” or digital gold will be the first precious metals seized to impose controls thus making their practicality in an economic collapse scenario such as a disintegration of the European Union. After the first round of seizures using this method however, the state, be it a foreign entity or the U.S. will begin to implement processes to tax the transactions and restrict amounts of physical gold an individual can obtain. That is why the action in the markets in 2008 and 2011 are appearing so similar but of course as the saying goes, “this time it’s different,” because this time, it truly is.

In 2008 during the collapse of the U.S. economic structure, the Federal Reserve inflated the system using various alphabet instruments which created a peak in gold prices over $1000 per ounce, a once unthinkable price target. Just as quickly however, the ineptitude of the academics lead to a short term deflationary collapse in the late summer through the winter of that year leading to a break in prices below first the 50 day moving average then the 150 day moving average (DMA) on a sustained closing basis. The chart below illustrates the August 2008 time period where the gold market indicated that the financial system was about to seize up and fail:

However, the correction lasted only until the spring of 2008 when the Federal Reserve decided to purchase all of the garbage of the domestic and world banking system to counter the deflationary price action and Quantitative Easing was announced, allowing gold to bounce hard to previous price levels:

The 30% correction from the secondary top led to the usual suspects in the “gold is just a barbaric relic” bubblevision community (yes, the same ones who said Washington Mutual was a steal at $15 per share) and provided what turned out to be the last viable buying opportunity for physical gold and silver at bargain basement prices. Since that time period, the markets have not even sniffed that price region and as illustrated in the chart above, created a very long term support area around the $1000 price level which will only be violated if the government imposes price controls for precious metals and re-institutes laws which allow the U.S. Treasury to set the daily gold price.

Fast forward to the action yesterday where gold finally, after one full year, broke the 150 DMA on a closing basis. This puts the 200 DMA in play before year end and indicates not a failure in gold as a safety play, but in fact that once again the world’s central banks are unable to cope with a coming financial crisis which in fact will be worse than the 2007-2009 time period. The financial equities, bond markets, and gold are all indicating another short term deflationary episode is about to impact world economies, this time originating in China and Europe. The resulting break in gold prices should provide a correction to first $1480 as initial support and if there is a 30-35% correction the $1280 price area:

Based on the panic in Europe and the desire for the U.S. government to restrict the movement of its citizens and capital starting in 2012, odds are this truly could be the average person’s last buying opportunity before the final super spike in gold prices due to geopolitical conditions move the yellow metal well over the $5000 mark. Even if an individual buys gold during the price decline period, odds are that the returns will be similar to the 2009 era where the Central Banks of the world will make the prudent investor whole within a period of months as they are down to their last bullet to save the fiat money system and counter systemic deflationary pressures:

Hyperinflation.

My advice in this manner? If you can locate physical gold coins at a reasonable price with an acceptable dealer margin, buying anywhere between $1280 and $1600 could well be the average person’s final chance to purchase the metal and own it this decade. After this financial crisis concludes in the late spring of 2012, too many politicians will demand the soothing of the masses to prevent anything but chaos and deliberate inflationary acts to insure domestic stability. When the election period in the U.S. concludes however, look for the desire to tax and limit ownership of currency alternatives to accelerate as gold equates to freedom and they just can’t allow that to happen any longer as the implementation of the new order begins.

歐債再起波瀾黃金市場暴跌

鉅亨網

法國可能失去其AAA評級，意大利五年期BTP債券的得標利率觸及歐元面世以來最高，歐債擔憂加劇，美元指數創出近期新高，黃金市場暴跌。

日K線圖顯示，現貨金今日收於一根帶上下影線的大陰線。現貨黃金最高觸及1,641.10美元/盎司，最低下探至1,563.90美元/盎司，收報1,568.20美元/盎司，上一交易日收報1,634.90美元/盎司，下跌66.70美元/盎司，跌幅4.08%。

美國紐約商品交易所(COMEX)黃金期貨周三(12月14日)收盤重挫，Comex-2月黃金期貨收盤下跌76.20美元，跌幅4.58%，報1,586.90美元/盎司。

交易商傳言歐洲第二大經濟體法國可能失去其AAA評等，如果此事成為真，將妨礙歐元區國家遏制區內債務危機擴散的努力。另外，意大利周三標售五年期BTP債券，意大利五年期BTP債券的得標利率為6.47%，較一個月前標售的可比國債6.29%的得標利率有所上升，后者在當時亦觸及歐元面世以來最高。分析師指出，法國評級下調只是時間的問題，目前市場已經對評級下調進行了預熱，法國評級下調將嚴重打擊歐元區信心。

受歐債利空消息打壓，歐元兌美元日內跌破1.30大關，再次不斷刷出新低，美元指數創出近期新高。在歐債危機深化的大背景下，雖然美元和黃金同屬於避險品種，但美元的流動性和市場規模對資金吸引力更大，黃金市場受打壓。

機構方面，匯豐銀行(HSBC)首席技術分析師JamesSteel表示，“一部分宏觀對沖基金正在結清黃金頭寸，并獲利了結。鑒於年底前成交量通常下跌，我們預計價格震盪的情況將會加劇。”花旗集團(Citigroup)旗下技術研究部門CitiFX首席技術策略師TomFitzpatrick表示，“如果金價本周收盤價在1，535-1，555美元下方，則修正可能會更深。”

技術面上，現貨黃金日線阻力位位於12月2日高點的1762.92美元/盎司和1700美元/盎司的整數關口；支撐位則位於1500美元/盎司的整數關口和1400美元/盎司的整數關口。

(王德軍撰稿)

小摩工作努力啊，５天就達標. 如果美國歐洲都能憋住一陣子不印錢的話，不排除藍線走法。最終不印錢是不可能的，除非打仗。

麻省閒人

宋鴻兵微博 15-12-2011

金銀投資重要的是看趨勢而不是短期價格波動。心要定，腦要靜，手要穩，拿得住，才能是最後的贏家。拒絕投機心態，克制槓桿操作，堅持實物投資，實行資產配置。人民幣如果每天跌停，銀行繼續保持負利率，股市回到了10年前，樓市拐點已經出現，老百姓的錢去哪裡避險？貴金屬顯然是資產配置的選擇之一。

《福布斯》12月12日文章：黃金價格長期看漲。原因1，幾乎所有主要國家均為負利率，英國－4.5％，美國－3.25%，中國和印度－2.23%，這是各國央行今年增持黃金儲備475－500噸的根本原因。當美聯儲宣布繼續保持超低利率政策到2013年，各國明年準備開動印鈔機刺激經濟增長後，黃金攀升的趨勢將繼續。