保爾森推薦自家黃金基金

彭博社報道，著名對沖基金經理保爾森（John Paulson）告訴投資者，他管理的黃金基金未來五年表現將超越他其他基金，並說黃金基金有55%是他自己的資金。保爾森說，黃金是對沖貨幣的最佳工具，建議用黃金對沖歐羅，因歐羅面對瓦解風險，而且通脹始終會上升。

白銀檢測-超音波檢驗

Turk – Something Big is About to Happen in Gold & Silver

With gold near $1,770 and silver near $35.50, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain.  Turk told King World News the fact that silver is not pulling back is an indication of how strong that market is right now.  Here is what Turk had to say about the situation:  “This is a great start to the week for the precious metals, Eric.  We need to see this kind of strength to make sure both gold and silver follow through in the next few trading days to confirm the big gains from last week where gold climbed 2.9%, while silver soared 6.4%.  It is remarkable to see both metals hold their gains with no profit taking.  Clearly, traders see something big is about to happen, and so do I.”

James Turk continues:

“In this regard, I have mentioned several times my expectation that once resistance at $35 is taken out, silver will climb to $68-$70 in 2 to 3 months.  I still expect that outcome, but of course, only time will tell.  I thought it might be tough going for silver in the $35-$36 area, but maybe not based on the strength we are seeing today.  

But regardless, Eric, I expect the silver price will begin to accelerate to the upside once $36 is hurdled.  In many ways silver is positioned today like it was back in the summer of 2010.  Long-time KWN listeners will remember the events from back then and my bullish views about silver.  I feel the same way today.”

When asked about gold, Turk responded, “We spoke in the last blog about the relationship between oil and gold, which was up 2.9% last week.  Oil jumped a remarkable 6.3%.  With all the money printing going on in central banks around the world, not to even mention the growing tensions in the Middle East, oil looks ready to test its record highs some time this year....

“So KWN readers have to remember that right now so goes oil, so goes gold.  It is also quite possible that gold will outperform oil by the end of the year.  But the bottom line is the wind is at the back of the bulls in both the gold and oil markets.

I follow this like you do, Eric, on a daily basis, but I look at it differently.  I look at the price of crude oil in terms of gold and since the beginning of 2012 gold has been outperforming crude oil.   This relationship between oil and gold goes back decades.  Today an ounce of gold buys basically the same amount of crude oil it did 60 years ago.  

But you do get some fluctuations in this relationship and right now I expect the purchasing power of gold to increase.  What I am saying is that an ounce of gold at the end of the year will buy more oil than it does today.   

I am a firm believer in letting the market tell its own story, Eric.  The market does this with the movement in prices.  Then, if we watch closely, we can see important trends.  By jumping on those trends and riding them, you position yourself in harmony with what the market is telling you, which is important.  

You always want to be in harmony with the major trend in prices.  As they say time and again, never fight the market.  So here's the point I am making, Eric.  Events so far this year have been extraordinary. The markets are signaling it.  In reality, events are spinning out of control.

Despite this new bailout scheme being foisted on Greece, the situation there continues to spiral out of control, which is one of the factors causing confidence in the safety of European banks to continue eroding.  

Surprisingly, over the weekend, the Telegraph in London reported comments by George Osborne, the British Chancellor, who said, ‘The British Government has run out of money because all the money was spent in the good years.’  Finally, a political leader came out and said what everyone has been ignoring.  While I applaud Osborne for telling the truth, the frightening reality and what everyone has been ignoring is governments around the world are broke.”

This is why it is so important to be outside of the banking system by having a portion of your assets in physical gold and silver.  Governments are broke and much of the banking system is insolvent.

kingworldnews.com/

LISTEN: Andy Hoffman: $1,000 – $4,000 Silver

from SGT:
Popular writer and pundit ‘Ranting Andy’ Hoffman from Miles Frankiln precious metals is back to talk to SGTreport. InPart 1 we talk about the fall of Greece at the hands of the IMF banksters and Silver to $50 by summer (which will help to break the backs of the criminal banking cartel). Anddon’t miss Part 2: $6 Trillion in seized bonds and $1,000 – $4,000 SILVER!


Part 1:
Eurozone Nightmare, $50 Ag By Summer & End of the Cartel



Part 2:
MUST HEAR! $1,000 – $4,000 SILVER

“Ranting” Andy Hoffman Watches the Gold Tide Come In–02-27-2012

“Ranting” Andy Hoffman may not always be right, but he’s never in doubt. Andy has been following the precious metals markets for too long to be fooled by the obvious hand of governmental sponsored manipulation. According to Andy, unbacked paper contracts are losing their affect on the physical metals prices. While it’s been a long time coming, it’s obvious now the market is getting away from the manipulators and is seeking its true free market value.

As we all know, markets can be manipulated in the short run. However in the long term, they will trade at their free market value. Unfortunately, every market the government meddles with results in malinvestment and irrational price movement and discovery. This is exactly what’s happening in the mortgage, housing, and student loan markets as well as in the precious metals markets. Like all good things, however, it eventually comes to an end. So you should start thinking about picking up some silver eagles, maple leafs, 90% silver-pre 1965 coins, and whatever else suits your preference. But do it soon because the odds are the next big move is happening now.


Original Source

China refines its role in global gold market

China, the world's largest producer of gold, will soon be the biggest buyer of it. Its spree is fueled partly by the government as it boosts its reserves but mostly by consumers seeking a hedge against inflation or to show off their wealth.

 

Demand for gold in China reached nearly 770 metric tons last year, up 20% from the year before, according to the World Gold Council in London. Above, customers line up to buy jewlery at a gold shop in Beijing. (AFP / Getty Images / February 26, 2012)

Reporting from Beijing—

A bit player only a decade ago, China has emerged as one of the most important forces in the global gold market, helping fuel the rising value of the precious metal.

Already the world's largest producer — it overtook South Africa in 2007 — China is now bedecking itself in bling. It's on track to become the globe's largest consumer of gold as early as this year, knocking off India — whose elaborate wedding dowries kept it on top for years.

Some of China's gold is going to its central bank as the government quietly boosts reserves. But the biggest driver is Chinese consumers. They're snapping up jewelry, coins and bars as a hedge against inflation and to flaunt their rising wealth.

To witness the frenzy firsthand, head to Beijing's Caishikou Department Store, a four-story gold emporium that rang up sales of $1.5 billion last year. Visitors be warned: sharpen your elbows and be ready to push.

To buy a necklace, shopper Wang Li recently fought her way through a scrum of cash-waving customers hanging over a glass counter loaded with gold chains, Mao pins, pendants of Christ on the cross and more.

"I thought about buying Swarovski crystal, but I don't think it will ever be as valuable as gold," said Wang, a 24-year-old teacher who treats herself to a new piece of yellow-metal jewelry about once a month. "Besides, I like how feminine gold makes me feel."

On another floor, customer Zhang Li waited in line to purchase gold bars, an investment he describes as the only safe bet left for ordinary Chinese.

"If I had invested in stocks or property last year, I would have lost money," said Zhang, 36.

Chinese demand reached nearly 770 metric tons last year, up 20% from the year before, according to the World Gold Council in London. Desire for the yellow metal is so strong that China is buying record amounts from abroad because its mines can't keep pace. China imported more gold than India in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Gold in New York hit a three-month high Thursday before slipping $9.80 Friday to $1,775.10 an ounce. Analysts said strong demand from China is a factor in the recent run-up.

"There's no doubt that China will eventually be No. 1," said Jeff Clark, a senior precious metals analyst for Casey Research in Stowe, Vt. "Our jaws have been dropping at the volumes being imported for over a year now."

Gold for centuries has been a store of wealth and a symbol of good fortune in China. But China's heavyweight status in the gold market is more recent. In 2002 the central government lifted controls and set up the Shanghai Gold Exchange, allowing the metal to be priced by market forces.

In addition, Chinese consumers eventually were allowed to purchase bullion through commercial banks. Today China accounts for 26% of global gold demand, up from 6% a decade ago.

"Chinese demand has traded positions with the U.S. in the last decade," said Albert Cheng, Far East managing director of the World Gold Council. "It's very clear the gold market is moving east."

Meanwhile, consolidation and foreign investment in China's mining industry produced larger, technologically sophisticated players. The result? The nation's gold production has nearly doubled in the last decade to 360 metric tons last year.

No group has welcomed China's liberalization of gold more than the country's middle class.

Rising incomes have whetted consumers' appetite for jewelry and other luxury goods. But it's also about security. With the real estate and stock markets gyrating and banks paying minimal interest rates on savings accounts, many Chinese view gold as the best vehicle to protect their savings from inflation.

"Gold in China is always about safety," said Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai and the former chief Asia Pacific economist for Morgan Stanley. "It's the preferred asset when the world is in chaos. China has failed to give people a sense of security."

Although international gold prices have retreated from their peak of $1,891 an ounce in August, analysts expect values to be partly buoyed by demand from central banks in emerging markets, including China.

Original Source

巴菲特投資失誤：20億美元或血本無歸

新浪財經訊北京時間2月28日凌晨消息，億萬富翁投資者、“股神”沃倫-巴菲特(Warren Buffett)稱，他麾下伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(BRK)所購買的大約20億美元的電力公司Energy Future Holdings Corp(TXU)債券可能血本無歸，這項投資正面臨著喪失全部價值的風險，原因是受到天然氣價格下跌的影響。
巴菲特在此前於伯克希爾哈撒韋公司網站上發布的年度股東信中稱，該公司在2010年將這筆債券的價值減記了10億美元，去年又再度減記了3.9億美元。他表示，截至去年12月底為止，這筆債券的市場價值為8.73億美元。
身為伯克希爾哈撒韋董事長兼首席執行官的巴菲特在信中寫道：“如果天然氣價格仍舊維持在當前水平，那麼我們將很可能面臨進一步的損失，其數額有可能會在實際上將我們當前的賬面結存價值一掃而空。相反的，如果天然氣價格大幅上漲，那麼可能會讓我們追回部分甚至全部的減記價值。”
現年81歲的巴菲特在2007年買入了Energy Future的債券，這家當時名為TXU Corp的公司在巴菲特進行投資以前被私募股權投資公司KKR(KKR)和德克薩斯太平洋( 7.50,-0.01,-0.13%)集團(TPG Capital)收購，創下歷史上規模最大的槓桿收購案。這兩家私募股權投資公司當時押注於天然氣價格將會上漲，從而推升批發電力的價格。但在美國鑽探活動擴張的形勢下，天然氣價格大幅下跌，從而導致在不受監管的市場上運營的電力提供商承壓，原因是在這一市場上，政府不會擔保公用事業(1865.824,- 4.42,-0.24%)公司能獲得特定水平的利潤。
所謂槓桿收購(LBO)，是企業兼併的一種特殊形式，其實質在於舉債收購，即以債務資本為主要融資工具，通過目標公司的大量舉債來向股東買公司股權，而這些債務資本大多以被併購企業的資產為擔保而獲得的。它主要是運用財務槓桿加大負債比例，以較少的股本投入融得數倍的資金，對企業進行收購、重組，使其產生較高盈利能力後，以俟機出售的或進行經營的一種資本運作方式。
據 美國金融業監管局(Financial Industry Regulatory Authority)下屬的債券價格報告體系Trace稱，Energy Future旗下部門Texas Competitive發行的票面利率為10.25%、定於2015年11月份到期的18.7億美元債券的價格已大幅下跌，從去年同期的每美元62美分降至2月24日的每美元29美分。
市場研究公司CreditSights駐紐約的分析師安迪-德福瑞斯(Andy DeVries)稱，天然氣價格需要達到每百萬英國熱量單位6.15美元，才能給Energy Future帶來足夠高的利潤率，從而使其有能力承擔自身的利息和運營支出。而在今年1月23日，天然氣期貨價格觸及每百萬英國熱量單位2.23美元的低點，遠遠低於2008年的超過13美元。 (金良/編譯)

貸評山下：有沒有「終極一跌」？ - 黃元山

歐洲的去槓桿化過程，可能會引爆日本的巨型信貸泡沫。路透社
某程度來說，歷史是不斷的重覆發生，不過，我認為現實不一定跟歷史所發生的模式一樣，現實是難以預測的。


從金融海嘯到現在，我一直認為，環球的大勢有了根本的變化，就是「已發展」國家會經歷「去槓桿化」，從美國樓市爆破開始，美國的個人、金融機構、政府等，一一面臨債務危機；然後，是歐洲的政府、金融機構和個人。最近，歐洲銀行相繼公佈業績，乏善足陳，而且還在全力賣資產，縮少資產負債表。


去槓桿化過程難看透
坦白說，這個「去槓桿化」的過程具體情況會如何，我相信沒有人會詳細知道，但是，有一點是肯定的，「已發展」國家以前「使大了」，未來必須為此而付上代價。我相信，這個過程還會繼續，衝擊歐洲的穩定性，也可能引爆日本的巨型信貸泡沫。


相對來說，我對新興市場，包括中國的經濟發展前景，比較樂觀。歐美和日本，過去的十多二十年，太過依賴由信貸牽引的經濟增長，真實的經濟生產力提升卻追不上；相反，雖然中國有不少經濟金融問題，但是，相對來說，真實的經濟生產力的提升有目共睹，而且整體經濟的槓桿化相對沒有「去得那麼盡」，有機會抗衡一下「已發展」國家「去槓桿化」的局面。


不過，歐美日等國家的「去槓桿化」，是否就等於2008年的歷史會重演？很多人都知道現在的經濟危機處處(連特首也用嚴厲的措辭去提醒老百姓)，於是，很多人就在等2008年般的「終極一跌」，就可以「飛身」撲去「入貨」，再期望2009和2010年資產價格大幅飆升的情況再出現。


有人說，當利息上升，因為印銀紙的後果必然是通脹，通脹和利息上升是掛鈎的。記得幾年前，著名的經濟學家謝國忠已經預言，2012年美國利息會上升，全球資金會流向美元資產，國內的樓市泡沫爆破。不過，現在看來，2012年美國利息不會上升。


我同意印銀紙、通脹、利息的理論關係，問題是，甚麼時候發生和怎樣發生？而且，以上的關係，在日本過去的十多年，並不明顯。原因可能有兩個：一是「去槓桿化」抵銷了印銀紙的威力；二是資金流去其他回報較高的經濟體系(如中國等)。


市場價格繼續大波動
同樣地，歐美現在的極度寬鬆貨幣政策，是否大於「去槓桿化」的壓力，也是未知之數；特別是經歷了2009和2010年，看到過量「印銀紙」的副作用，明顯使央行三思而後行。


因此，有沒有「終極一跌」，是受不少人為因素(特別是央行)影響，所以難以預知。不過，我認為比較可能發生的是，市場價格會繼續非常波動，於過份樂觀和悲觀中不斷搖擺，製造不少機會(不要忘記股神也是在市場動盪的時候致富的)；另外，「去槓桿化」和信貸減少，會造成整體市場的PE壓縮，所以，企業本身盈利增長能否長遠是非常重要的。