2012年5月19日星期六

按兵不動 靜觀其變

聯 儲局剛發表的會議紀錄顯示,與會成員對經濟的憂慮加深,有更多人表示,若果經濟復蘇失去動力,又或者經濟下滑的風險增加至超越容忍極限,便會支持採取進一 步寬鬆措施支持經濟,但與會者中只有 1 人對延長扭曲操作 (operation twist, OT) 表示支持。

會 議紀錄顯示,與會官員的主流看法是美國經濟仍在溫和復蘇,復蘇勢頭亦會逐步加強,但承認復蘇風險正加大,故逾半成員同意維持短期利率於接近零水平至 2014 年底的同時,亦有「數名」(several) 官員暗示支持在有需要時加推貨幣寬鬆措施,較 3 月議息時只有兩名 (a couple of) 官員持同一看法為多。
聯 儲局對經濟作出評估後,認為經濟仍存在外憂內患。外圍方面主要是歐洲主權債務及銀行危機引起的環球金融市場緊張,對美國出口將會構成障礙;內憂則有年初和 暖冬天令就業數據改善程度遭誇大、超寬鬆貨幣政策或對通脹前景的穩定性產生不利影響,但最令聯儲局擔憂的,仍是主席伯南克一再公開提警告的「財政懸崖」 (fiscal cliff)。

所 謂「財政懸崖」,是指小布殊年代減稅措施及工資稅寬免 (payroll tax break) 年底到期,以及在 2013 年開始自動生效的逾萬億美元削減開支。奧巴馬的民主黨與共和黨去年就削減 1.2 萬億開支換取提升國債上限談不攏,導致美國失去最高評級,其後引入條文,若兩黨最終未能就削減預算達成共識 ,自動削赤計劃便會啟動,涉及的加稅及削開支料將高達 3.5% GDP,對美國經濟會構成沉重打擊。美國國會預算辦公室估計,最壞情況下,經濟增長會降至只有 1.1%,而失業率則會攀升至 8.9%,於 2013 年底更會高見 9.2%;若財政懸崖獲得解決,GDP 增長會 有3%,失業率亦可降至 8%。

總統奧巴馬剛於周三與國會領袖會晤,但仍無法收窄分歧,共和黨堅持焦點透過削減開支降低政府負債及預算赤字水平,未肯向民主黨提出的加稅與減開支雙管齊下方案妥協,對奧巴馬尋求刺激就業增長的要求亦置若罔聞。

事 實上,美國經濟復蘇勢頭已有後勁不繼迹象。近期公布的數據表現參差,例如首季增長僅 2.2%;失業率雖滑落,卻是由更多人退出職場所推動,實際創造職位差強人意,而貿赤亦再擴大。美股於上月底公布首季 GDP 數字至今,道指已調整了逾 600 點,標普 500 亦調整了 75 點子。道指踏入 5 月後,12 個交易日僅有 2 日上升,市場信心虛怯,再加上通脹仍受控,聯儲局的 4,000 億扭曲操作亦會在 6 月底完結,不排除會對美股甚至美國經濟構成進一步打擊。

雖然調查反映經濟學者相信聯儲局推出 QE3 的機會只有 30%,但經濟形勢若惡化,QE3 出台機會便大增。從聯儲局會議紀錄推斷,聯儲局成員對經濟復慮疑慮正加深,對加推 QE3 的立場亦軟化,暫時按兵不動,只是靜觀其變,待更多不利數據湧現時才出手。

王冠一

Gold demand plunges 29% in Q1


timesofindia.indiatimes.com / May 18, 2012
NEW DELHI: High gold prices coupled with the three-week strike by jewellers has resulted in a sharp fall in purchase of the yellow metal during the first quarter, with sales falling nearly 29% to a little over 200 tonnes during January-March, 2012.
While housewives are deferring purchase of jewellery, even the savvy investors, who prefer to have the metal in their investment portfolio, seem to have given up, thanks to high prices. As a result, jewellery sales were down 19% during the quarter, while the demand for coins and bars was down by nearly half to 55 tonnes, data released by the World Gold Council (WGC) showed.
“Weakness and volatility in the rupee resulted in elevated local prices, while consumers struggled to digest a rise in import taxes on gold and the introduction of an excise duty on gold jewellery, which prompted jewellers country-wide to strike,” the agency said in a report, adding that the demand in terms of value for jewellery increased by 10% in the quarter to a record high of Rs 41,480 crore.
Although WGC seemed to suggest the strike for the fall in sales, where large retailers such as Gitanjali and Tanishq stayed away, jewellers said shops now wear a deserted look as buyers are waiting for prices to fall.
In India, gold prices are off their peak of near Rs 30,000 per 10 grams seen in early May, but they are still around 28% higher than a year ago. In Delhi, the yellow metal fell by Rs 100 to a five-week low of Rs 28,440 per 10 grams, while it lost around Rs 165 to close at Rs 27,940. A bulk of the price rise in the domestic market is on account of a weaker rupee, which has lost nearly 21% against dollar over the past 12 months and closed at 54.49 on Thursday. During this period, gold gained nearly 6% and was trading at $1,575 an ounce internationally, according to data available with Bloomberg. WGC said global demand for gold was down 5% in the first quarter, essentially due to higher prices.
READ MORE

12 Pictures That Demonstrate How The New World Order Openly Mocks Us


endoftheamericandream.com / May 18, 2012
If you know what to look for, it quickly becomes obvious that the elite of the world are not even trying to hide their insidious plans for the planet.  They hope to unite the entire globe under their leadership, and they don’t think that we are strong enough or smart enough to stop them.  They openly embed symbols expressing their desire for a one world economic system, a one world religion and a one world government on our buildings, on our monuments and on our money and they think that it is funny that most people have no idea what those symbols mean.  The New World Order openly mocks us and they seem to take pleasure in giving us “clues” about what their plans for humanity are.  In the “global society” that they have planned for us, individual freedoms and liberties will be greatly restricted “for the good of humanity” and they will use the emerging Big Brother police state control gridto monitor and control everything that we do.  It would be a totalitarian regime unlike anything the world has ever seen before.  That is why it is absolutely imperative that we wake people up and get them educated about what the globalists plan to do so that they can resist this growing tyranny.
The following are 12 pictures that demonstrate how the New World Order openly mocks us….
Wenlock – Official Mascot Of The 2012 London Olympics
On the official London 2012 website, we are told that Wenlock, the official mascot of the 2012 London Olympics, has a camera for an eye because that “lets Wenlock record everything”.
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Most Popular Gold and Silver Coins and Bars

(JH MINT Sales and Purchase Volume Data)

 

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, May 18th, 2012
Here’s the link to tables of JH MINT Sales data without commentary.
http://jhmint.com/reports.html
People who are ready to buy silver and gold often ask us, “Which should I buy?” and “What’s the most popular?”  It’s the one ounce silver round!   It’s the clear winner.
The sales volume data shows what’s popular, and by how much.  To my knowledge, no other bullion dealer has published such data ever.  Thus, this is very important industry data.  It should be linked, and discussed and cross referenced by those who would comment on the physical bullion market.
The data reveals much.  One of my favorite points is that it exposes a lot of fraud.
Don’t ever believe it when fraudsters who vault your bullion in the form of 1000 oz. bars, claim that one ounce rounds are not popular, or that it’s “too difficult” or “too costly” to manufacture these popular silver products.
Note, the data covers the period from August 2010 to April 2012, which is 1.75 years, or a year and 9 months.
We sold a total of $33.9 million, and bought a total of $13 million worth of silver and gold from the public.  We have excluded purchases from wholesalers, or sales to refiners, which would have offset the difference, and would have helped to balance the numbers.  So, the numbers reflect what the public is buying and selling and doing and choosing to do, not what dealers buy or sell or have to do to serve the public demand.
Overall, it’s important to note that silver one ounce rounds are the most popular item, both in sales and purchases.  Since they are the most popular of purchases as well, this says that silver one ounce rounds were the most popular item of the last ten to twenty years.  Since sales of silver one ounce rounds were 23.6% of all sales, and purchases were 11.6% of all purchases, this says that they are only growing in popularity.  We didn’t sell “twice as many as we bought”, we really sold $8 million worth of one oz. rounds, while we bought $1.5 million, which is 5.3 times more.  To me, that suggests that one oz. rounds are 5.3 times more popular now (over the last two years), than they were “historically”.
Every now and then, people will sell the 100 oz. silver bars, or sell gold coins, just to convert into one ounce rounds, as people are growing in their awareness of the need to have a fungible, popular, barterable unit of tradable precious metal.
I believe this is a good trend.  It shows the growing awareness of the importance of fungibility, and it is helping the silver one ounce round to gain that fungibility that comes with being the most common unit of trade.
The sales data is showing that silver one ounce rounds are “becoming money”.
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Martin Armstrong: We’re Still in Phase 1 of Capital Flight to Quality

http://www.silverdoctors.com/

Martin Armstrong’s latest discusses why gold and silver are being pummeled, and the dollar is soaring in the midst of the Euro-crisis.  Armstrong states that we are still in Phase 1 of capital flight to quality, where capital flees from one currency to the next.
All in time Phase 2 will begin, and capital will flee from the last remaining fiat ‘safe-haven’ to the true safe havens of gold and silver.
Here is a monthly chart of the US 30-year Treasury bond and the pattern is very clear. The flight-to-quality is not yet over. I have been warning gold was not ready yet for prime-time. Here we are on the edge of Europe being torn apart at the seams, socialists taking control of the battlements, inflation appearing likely, yet gold retreats. Phase ONE of a Sovereign Debt Crisis is international capital flight-to-quality from one currency to the next. I have warned that the USA would be last to go – not first!

Some people will never admit a mistake. No matter what I say, they just will not believe me. I have received emails from some nasty gold fanatics saying the government is right for whenever I put out a report saying gold will decline – it does. When I go to Capitol Hill, I am introduced as “this is the guy with the model they are trying to suppress!” Now I am fighting in court because they refuse to issue me a passport. Why? There are “other issues!” No explanation of course just denial of free speech.
 


I have warned that the United States would be last to fall because it is the core economy being both the largest as well as the reserve currency. I have warned that this will not collapse into dust all at the same time. Each link will break one at a time cascading like dominos. This is not my OPINION – it is history!



 

Dramatic Turnaround For Silver?

 世事會否再循環,依照著過往的模式再一次出現眼前?
 

http://hubertmoolman

Here are a few patterns that might explain the current state of the silver price, as well as, provide the possible way forward.
Below is a 6-year chart of silver (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):
silver price forecast
On the chart, I have indicated two similar patterns (marked 1 to 5).This comparison suggests that silver could rise significantly over the next couple of months. This would mean that a dramatic turnaround in the price of silver is coming (it might have started already).
I have also drawn some red lines at the $10, $20, $30, and $50 level. These levels appear to have acted like key levels, where the price of silver has found support or resistance.
The interesting thing about these levels is the fact that they have a Fibonacci relationship. That is a ratio that is similar to the following Fibonacci numbers: 1, 2, 3, and 5. So, if the silver chart continues to follow this Fibonacci pattern, which is often the case, then the $50 level is a very important resistance. Also, if we go past the $50 level, then $80 could be the next significant level, since that will be the next area, if the Fibonacci ratio is to be applied. The $80 area could act as a support or a resistance.
Now, I would like to zoom-in to the last part of both patterns (about point 3 to 5 of both).
Below is a graphic which compares the current pattern on silver (from about the beginning of 2011 to present) to a 2007 pattern:
silver forecast
On both charts, I have suggested how the flag  patterns might be similar, by marking similar points, from 1 to 6 (and alternatively from a to f). Based on this comparison, it appears that the silver price is searching for that point 6 (or point f, which might be in already).
These patterns suggest that the current flag pattern (as previously suggested), is important for the future of the silver price. A breakout at the resistance line of the flag could mean that we will have a significant rally, and an eventual breakout at the $50.
For more silver and gold analysis and guidance, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Report  & Long-term Gold Fractal Report    or subscribe to my Premium Service.
Warm regards,
Hubert Moolman