何盛德：耶倫首秀鴿聲嘹亮預示黃金仍有機會雄起

冬天已經來臨，爾後，春天還會遠嗎？

世界總是充滿了辯證主義，唯有那些心執信念但又不盲目偏執的人才可以撐起一片藍天，收穫陽光和希望。眼看著充滿希望的行情來臨，結果迎來了修正的洗禮，正當人們開始以​​為走向黑暗，光明卻正在來臨，光明就在黑暗的旁邊，黑暗屬於黎明前的黑暗。對一個投資者而言，經得住檢驗的行情固然是好的行情，但是經得住檢驗的內心強大才是真正的好行情，戰勝自己才能夠贏得未來，因為戰勝自己才能夠對抗行情的錯位，無論是空間的錯位還是時間的錯位，大趨勢裡面的小趨勢錯位都是小插曲而已。

縱觀財經世界，事件斗轉星移，唯有美聯儲才是永恆的主題。美聯儲即將由耶倫執掌，耶倫的美好時代即將來臨，我們應該如何應對？對非美資產尤其是像金銀鉑鈀這一類的貴金屬，將帶來何種深度改變？

上週耶倫出席美國國會的聽證會，應對議員們的各種質疑和發難，耶倫出色地完成了自己的政策秀，首場耶倫秀讓我們認識了更加完整和清晰的耶倫，尤其是耶倫的政策傾向，可以說耶倫的首場政策秀十分完美，最大特點是“鴿聲嘹亮”。

幾乎毫無懸念耶倫將為美聯儲的繼任者，在上週四的參議院銀行委員會做證詞時，耶倫就自己的貨幣政策與經濟前景看法釋放了一些訊息，尤其是對於市場關心的貨幣政策走向，筆者將耶倫政策秀總結為如下幾點：

首先是，耶倫對過去實施量化寬鬆（QE）貨幣政策進行了肯定，她肯定了購債措施對經濟增長和經濟前景做出了有意義的貢獻；其次是，對於何時撤出量化寬鬆的問題，耶倫認為過早結束量化寬鬆（QE）貨幣政策存在風險，當經濟蘇復還很脆弱時，不撤走購債措施顯得至關重要；再次是，對於購債反對派而言，耶倫也滿足了他們的胃口，耶倫也強調量化寬鬆不會永遠持續下去，隨著經濟復甦持續下去，貨幣政策會回歸正常，同時強調美聯儲擁有QE退出工具，不會下不了台；最後是，怎麼樣操作這種貨幣政策節奏？對於QE撤退的步伐而言立足於，強調正在尋找增長足夠強勁以推動經濟發展​​的證據。

市場將這種看法明顯理解為短期內不會撤走量化寬鬆，可謂“鴿聲嘹亮”！同時耶倫闡述了金融市場穩定性的重要性，即不排除動用貨幣政策解決金融資產價格失衡的可能性，以及美聯儲將在金融穩定性中扮演何種角色，即貨幣政策不是萬靈藥，而是一個遲鈍的工具；同時對美國的財政政策，即財政撙節和債務上限問題方面對經濟的影響上，耶倫表達了不滿，強調短期財政支出對美聯儲刺激經濟復甦產生了阻礙，同時指出不要寄希望全部於美聯儲，美聯儲不是救世主，美聯儲的貨幣政策跟財政部的財政政策目的是不同的。可謂收放自如，權責分明，對自己的角色和能動性進行了克制性的清醒認識。

不管怎麼說，耶倫跟我們之前的預期一致，是一隻大鴿子，鴿派觀點盡顯。不過這只鴿子能夠引起美聯儲“群鴿亂舞”還有“鴿子被老鷹吃掉”還待商榷，耶倫上任後的美聯儲將發生人事變動，鴿派席位人數要比伯南克在任時減少，估計耶倫遇到的政策阻力要比伯南克不小，同時耶倫要在美聯儲樹立自己的價值觀和價值觀隊伍，任重道遠。但是短中期看，美國的貨幣政策一方面是量化寬鬆還未到撤出時，另外一反面是真正傷筋動骨的加息貨幣政策還很遠很遠，中期美聯儲的貨幣政策對非美資產而言定義為中性比較適合。

而之前公佈的十月份的美國的非農就業人口，筆者當時比較忙，沒有時間及時點評，抱歉。不過非農往往帶來的是趨勢性影響，所以現在分析也不晚：十月份的美國非農就業人口再度超乎尋常，特別是新增非農就業人口出現了井噴現象。非農數據最近幾個月極度不正常，可以說是得了躁狂抑鬱症，一會兒特別好一會兒特別差，七月份以來的數據都是如此。十月份的非農數據大幅超過預期為20.4萬人，預期增長是12.5萬人，幾乎跟預期要翻倍了。同時將八月份的非農數據從19.3萬人修正到23.8萬人，將九月份的非農數據從14.8萬人修正到16.3萬人。失業率方面，十月份失業率沒有繼續前進而是開始整固，為7.3%符合預期。總體看，修正後的非農數據跟前半年相比平均值在縮小，從八九月份被上修的非農數據看，十月份的非農數據十一月份或者十二月份被下修的可能性比較小，因此可以確定的事情是，美國的就業市場繼續改善沒有大問題，受到財政政策拖累的影響可能要到十一月份或者十二月份的數據才會體現出來，但考慮到西方國家的聖誕節日即將臨近，不排除就業人口會出現再度走高，因為臨時招工人數肯定是迎來全年的高峰期。在這種情況下，將對美聯儲的貨幣政策會有衝擊，促使美聯儲在考慮經濟復甦的步伐上增加正能量判斷，這對黃金白銀鉑金鈀金等貴金屬資產不利，但考慮到美聯儲換屆以及耶倫的鴿派觀點，估計更多是盤中的影響多一點，趨勢性的影響會集中到美聯儲真正決議開始撤出量化寬鬆的時候，體現在撤出的數量幅度和時間安排長度上，現在市場最大的共識是，量化寬鬆可能要到耶倫執掌美聯儲之後的明年三月份議息或之後才會再次正式探討。

之前筆者提出黃金白銀還會有階段性新高出現，這種觀點不會變，期待階段性新高在未來的一個季度內出現，金融市場總是出現買預期賣事實的情況，未來的基本面預期是中國的十八界三中全會召開後，改革力度空前，釋放了不少的經濟紅利，除了筆者上一篇文章推薦關注A股股票指數基金機會外，實際上中國今年的前三季度黃金消費已經超過印度了，成為全球第一大黃金消費國，從全年看這個第一毫無懸念。中國的黃金消費增長預計還會進一步擴大，無論是民間還是官方。中國的民間歷來都是愛好黃金的，消費潛力十分巨大，特別是中產階級崛起後加上黃金價格有大幅度下跌，將會刺激這種消費增長。從官方的角度來說，筆者多次呼籲中國的整體黃金儲備要增加到5000噸，特別是人民幣的國際化步伐加快後，儲備黃金會對人民幣的信用基礎進一步夯實，然後天量外匯儲備也需要投資多元化儲值保值增值，這種觀點和購買跡象正在市場釋放，中國的購買力足夠撐起整個世界黃金的價格，不費吹灰之力。

從歷史的角度看，過去五六百年間東西方曾經出現了黃金白銀的大挪移，明朝清朝西方的黃金白銀由於東方的經濟繁榮貿易發達加上西方開闢新大陸[2.36% 資金研報]增加了黃金白銀儲備，使得黃金白銀因為東方強大經濟而源源不斷地流向了東方，這種事情到鴉片戰爭後戛然而止，出現了相反的事情，東方中國的白銀黃金開始以賠款等方式源源不斷地流向了西方，歷史真是不公平，中國用數百年的天量的貨真價實的茶葉、絲綢、陶瓷換來的黃金白銀被西方用一紙賠款協議就換走了，中國必須要崛起，黃金必需要再次回歸中國。而到了今天，由於東西方的貿易體繫再度發生改變，使得黃金白銀再度源源不斷地流向東方，顯示的是東方經濟在世界版圖中的重要​​性開始再度崛起，這個過程一旦開始，估計短期內就不會有結束，中國的黃金消費量未來的潛力空間是年均達到四千噸以上，道理很簡單，因為中國目前的人均貴金屬消費量是西方國家人均的四分之一。

從這個角度講，黃金白銀鉑金鈀金尤其是黃金價格越低越買不是對大家的誤導，因為道理很簡單，對於一個有價值的東西，當價格越低，說明價格越靠近內在價值，價格泡沫越小，那麼性價比就會進一步凸顯。用巴菲特的投資邏輯講，就是我不知道它何時會上漲，但是我知道它已經足夠便宜，所以我買入它。從投資角度看，例如技術分析的角度看，黃金最近半年以來的低點是一個比一個高，什麼意思，黃金的底部實際上是在不斷地抬高，國際現貨黃金價格的核心中樞值是在1250美元每盎司位置，區間上1200到1250美元每盎司區間是核心支撐區間，除非黃金價格再下一城，悲觀者已經看到850美元每盎司或者900美元盎司這樣的位置，但是筆者煉金術( AIC)研究總經理何盛德(James He)的核心觀點是黃金不管是今年年底還是明年一整年乃至更長的時間，國金黃金價格維持四位數是絕對底線，也就是說黃金價格再怎麼跌都會在1000美元每盎司之上幾乎是絕對信心。恰恰相反，筆者上上一篇文章指出，黃金價格還會創階段性新高，這種觀點就是黃金的價格波動將打破之前的1430美元每盎司的階段性反彈高點，而是要看到1530美元每盎司的階段性高點。也就是說，黃金的波動應該是在1250到1530美元每盎司區間。

白銀同樣如此，白銀的波動會比黃金大，從機構的行動看，白銀基金實際上一直是在逆市加倉的，而不像黃金基金連續減倉，黃金基金像典型的國際黃金基金SPDR從倉位最高點到目前已經減去了487.65噸，減倉幅度達到36%。是什麼原因導致黃金基金被大幅度拋售呢？最大的可能性就是華爾街的資金一般潛伏時間都比較長看得比較遠，黃金下跌以來的核心預期就是美國的貨幣政策未來會轉向，眾所周知黃金對美元的反應是最敏感和及時的，所以這些資金撤出了黃金市場去華爾街淘股票或者淘匯率機會了，例如美國的股市的道瓊斯指數已經創歷史新高了，美國股市不斷地上漲，同時像之前的日本實施了安倍經濟學，日元出現了政策性匯率波動，這些導致資金撤出了黃金市場。但是白銀則不一樣，白銀基金一直是逆市在加倉，像典型的全球主要白銀基金，ISHARES白銀基金目前的持倉量在10404噸，該基金的歷史最高持倉量在2011年4月4日達到11162.45噸，跟歷史最高倉值之間的波動幅度6.7%，波動幅度大部分時間都控制在10%以內的。應該說，黃金基金和白銀基金的表現相差十萬八千里，這種差異性不是偶然，估計在未來的一到三年還會進一步加強，因為經濟復甦白銀的工業需求旺盛，黃金幾乎沒啥工業需求，白銀正如筆者的《白銀崛起》一書所闡述一樣，白銀屬於歷史性低估品種，白銀崛起不是夢。

白銀價格走勢後市要創階段性新高，預計空間會是在20美元每盎司到28美元每盎司，突破之前的25美元每盎司階段性新高，突破歷史上重要的支撐變壓制價格26美元每盎司也值得期待。

需要指出的是，從技術上看，似乎更小品種的鉑金鈀金要比黃金白銀更有想像力，尤其是鈀金的技術走勢顯示出歷史數年的三角形整理即將進入尾聲，投資者可以關注一下。不過，鉑金鈀金畢竟是小品種，風險肯定也是明顯的，貴金屬投資還是以主要關注白銀和黃金為主。

從交易策略的角度講，樂觀的理性一定要保留，但是樂觀的衝動一定要克制，筆者對市場有清醒的交易認識，那就是階段性新高到來之前，還會反复醞釀。耶倫的政策首秀，可以說是鴿聲嘹亮，預示著黃金多頭還有雄起的機會，金銀鉑鈀後市還會創階段性新高的認識不會拋棄，而是堅守和執行，逢低買入高拋低吸在筆者的操作中將繼續貫徹。

風險提示：文中內容均不構成個人化投資建議亦不代表鳳凰財經立場。本文或其任何部分不應被視為任何買賣的邀請或誘導。不能保證文中信息的準確性、完整性和及時性，文中的任何錯誤都不能成為向鳳凰財經提起任何申訴的基礎。


何盛德

揭秘全球黃金定價系統：由匯豐等五大銀行操作

 

Matthew Hart

伴隨著2008年金融危機的到來，黃金價格暴漲，3 年中從每盎司800美元漲至1900美元。黃金的漲勢刺激了前所未有的全球黃金開採、勘探熱潮，規模甚至超過19 世紀的淘金熱。然而從今年4月15日開始，黃金快速跌破每盎司1500美元和1400美元，引發的黃金市場震動一直持續至今，既牽動著投資者的心，也影響著普通人的生活。 (誰在給黃金定價倫敦黃金市場交易規則之謎)

美國著名作家馬修·哈特(Matthew Hart)研究黃金和黃金市場30年，他曾到過撒哈拉沙漠中盛產黃金的國家、倫敦黃金市場神秘的交易室，採訪過全球最著名的黃金巨頭，現在他將這些經歷著書出版，向讀者們講述黃金背後的精彩故事。

美國加州大學伯克利分校研究黃金歷史的經濟學家羅伊·加斯特拉姆認為，人類對黃金有著超越理智的迷戀，這不是一種本能，但或許跟種族的集體記憶有關。換句話說，人們愛黃金，是因為人類一直都愛黃金。兩年前，為了研究人類對黃金的特殊情結，美國著名作家馬修·哈特開始探索黃金的世界。

每個工作日的上午10點30分，倫敦匯豐銀行貴金屬交易室的一名黃金交易員都會拿起電話，撥打一條專線，這條專線能讓他跟其他4名銀行家取得聯繫，他們5個人都是倫敦黃金定價系統成員，負責給世界上最著名的貴金屬——黃金——設定價格。

“在全球很多地方人們都能買到黃金，”倫敦人傑洛米·查爾斯表示， “但到每天上午的10點30分，你會發現黃金市場的業務似乎暫時停止了，全球黃金市場都在註視著倫敦。”查爾斯負責匯豐銀行的全球黃金業務，也是倫敦黃金市場協會主席。查爾斯表示，這些年中他看盡黃金市場的起起落落，但唯一沒有改變的是倫敦黃金定價系統，它一直保持著神秘，現在由匯豐銀行、德意志銀行、巴克萊銀行、興業銀行[4.77%資金研報]、加拿大豐業銀行共同操作。在這五大定價銀行中，匯豐是唯一一家願意讓哈特採訪的銀行。

五大銀行的定價過程通常是這樣的：先是由佔據主席席位的銀行提出一個價格，通常這個價格介於倫敦黃金市場購入、賣出最新價格的中間。然後，主席會提問其他四大銀行，按照提出的這個價格，谁愿意購入、 谁愿意賣出黃金。如果買家和賣家的數量不平衡，那麼黃金的價格就會相應地被調低或調高，直至買家和賣家數量平衡為止。當五大銀行找到了平衡點，黃金的價格就被確定了，然後這個價格會立即傳遍全球。除了每天上午外，每天下午五大銀行也會重複這個定價過程。除了五大銀行的黃金交易代表外，沒有任何人可以參與、觀看定價過程。

事實上，與其說倫敦黃金定價系統設定金價，還不如說它依據市場行為、反映黃金交易者們的一致意見。它就如同黃金帝國的參議院，通過每天向黃金市場傳遞投票結果的方式給予支持，投票結果產生後，黃金市場會立即圍繞這個結果在激情的驅使下或是平和、或是洶湧地波動。

THE COMEX FRAUD IS GROWING LARGER – 69 TIMES MORE PAPER THAN GOLD

As of Wednesday’s open interest report for Comex gold futures, there were a total of 403,947 open gold futures representing 40,394,700 ounces of gold.   As of yesterday, there were 587,234 ounces of “registered,” available for delivery ounces of gold.  That’s a mind-boggling 69x times more open interest of paper gold than available physical gold to deliver to the holders of those contracts.  Think about that for a minute.  If more than 1.4% of those longs stands for delivery, the Comex defaults.
Now we know why Germany wants its gold back, why the Chinese and other BRIC countries are loading up on gold and demanding delivery and why the owners of Comex gold are taking delivery off the Comex.  The Comex is a giant Ponzi scheme.   “In paper we trust” is the motto of anyone who has a long position in Comex futures OR who safe-keeps their gold at Comex vaults.

From Truth in Gold:

The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.

The above liability disclaimer was added to the Comex gold and silver warehouse stock reports about 5 months ago.  I have a post on this blog about the time it showed up if you need an exact date.  You can see the Comex stock report and disclaimer at the bottom here:  Comex Gold Stock Report

The question I had at the time was, “why now?”   The CME completed its acquisition of the Comex in August 2008.  It took nearly 5 years before the CME’s lawyers decided to add that disclaimer to its Comex gold/silver warehouse stock reports.  Having worked on corporate finance deals in my past and knowing how anal and attention-to-details good lawyers are, I can assure you that it is not some capricious oversight that the CME decided to correct five years ex post facto, as one prominent silver newsletter seller would have us believe.

Here’s a graph of the stunning plunge in the “registered” gold sitting in Comex bank vaults – “registered” means gold that has been designated by its legal owners as being available for delivery to holders of futures contracts and has been certified as a bona fide gold bar per Comex standards (source of chart is 24hourgold.com, edits are mine):

There are 6 entities that operate designated Comex gold vaults:  JP Morgan, Scotia Mocatta, HSBC, Brinks and a small private vault company, Manfra, Tordella & Brookes.   The three banks account for 96.4% of the total amount of gold being “safekept” in Comex-designated vaults.  They account for 78% of the “registered” gold on the Comex.  As you can guess, most of the deliverable gold that has been removed from Comex since April has come from the vaults of JP Morgan, HSBC and Scotia.

The “eligible” gold account is the gold that is being kept for safekeeping at the Comex vaults by investors who theoretically have title to that gold.  For the record,  knowing what I know about big bank fraud, I unequivocally do not believe that the entire amount of gold being reported by the big banks who operate the depositories is actually either physically in the vaults or that it has not been hypothecated via lease obligations by the banks who control the vaults.  If it has been hypothecated, it might actually be there but the owners have lost their physical claim on the metal.  See the court decision in the MF Global bankruptcy if you do not believe me.  The owners of silver held by MF Global were deprived of their bars and are being settled in cash.

As of Wednesday’s open interest report for Comex gold futures, there were a total of 403,947 open gold futures representing 40,394,700 ounces of gold.   As of yesterday, there were 587,234 ounces of “registered,” available for delivery ounces of gold.  That’s a mind-boggling 69x times more open interest of paper gold than available physical gold to deliver to the holders of those contracts.  Think about that for a minute.  If more than 1.4% of those longs stands for delivery, the Comex defaults.

Now, the majority of those contracts  extend all the way out to December 2015.  But there’s 166,540 open gold contracts for delivery this December (first notice of delivery is 9 trading days away including today, on November 27).  Those contracts represent 28x the amount of available gold to deliver on the Comex.  If more than 3.5% of those contracts stand for delivery, the Comex defaults.  Historically, maybe 1% of the open interest in a delivery month takes delivery.  The odds are that will be the case this December.  But at the rate that the gold is being drained from the Comex, this is going to be a real problem in the future.

Now we know why Germany wants its gold back, why the Chinese and other BRIC countries are loading up on gold and demanding delivery and why the owners of Comex gold are taking delivery off the Comex.  The Comex is a giant Ponzi scheme.   “In paper we trust” is the motto of anyone who has a long position in  Comex futures OR who safekeeps their gold at Comex vaults.

As for the truth in reporting issue, does anyone out there besides Ted Butler actually trust those banks to  send computer-generated reports that are accurate and honest to the CME.  Have these big, Too Big To Fail bailed out banks given us any reason whatsoever to trust them?   Ya, neither does the CME apparently, which is why they stuck that disclaimer on the inventory reports in June.  In fact, we know that both HSBC and JPM have several criminal investigations for fraud and market manipulation going on against them by the “regulatory” authorities in both the UK and the U.S.  They have both settled numerous others with big cash payments to make the charges go away.

I can walk anyone carefully through JP Morgan’s SEC-filed financials to show them where JP Morgan is committing fraud in reporting its financials to the SEC.  I guess Butler trusts those financial filings just like he trusts the reports on open interest and warehouse stock filed with the CME by JPM, HSBC and Scotia.

I do not trust those reports and neither should you.  The Comex is living on the life-support of those who still trust them enough to conduct business on the Comex.  Sooner or later that trust will be shattered.  Judging by the current drain of gold from the Comex and from GLD, “later” is probably not too far away…When that happens, the world price of gold will go “bid without” (meaning all buyers, no sellers) and the dollar will drop off a cliff.

若然今次失敗

核污染會是廣島原爆14,000倍。

Fukushima Plant Fuel Rod Removals to Begin Today, Tepco Says

By Jacob Adelman & Masumi Suga - Nov 18, 2013 9:36 AM GMT+0800

Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501) will begin removing spent fuel today from the wrecked Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear facility, an early milestone in decommissioning that could threaten another crisis if mishandled.
Removal of the first of the 1,533 fuel-rod assemblies at the plant’s No. 4 reactor building is scheduled to begin at about 3 p.m., Masateru Araki, a spokesman for the utility known as Tepco, said by phone.

 

A member of the media wearing a protective suit and a mask walks in front of a fuel handling machine on the spent fuel pool inside the building housing the No. 4 reactor at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s (Tepco) Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Okuma, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan on Nov. 7, 2013. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg 

The operation is the most significant test to date of Tepco’s ability to contain the threat stemming from the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. Were the rods to break or overheat, it could prompt a self-sustained nuclear chain reaction similar to the meltdowns at three Fukushima reactors following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority assigned an inspector to oversee the removals, in addition to its existing staff at the plant, and is strengthening video monitoring of the removal site, the agency said in a statement Friday.
An uncontrolled nuclear reaction due to structural failures or mishandled fuel is highly unlikely because of safeguards and workers’ experience with the procedure, Akira Ono, the Dai-Ichi plant’s chief supervisor, said at a Nov. 7 news conference at the power station.
Removing the rods, bunched in assemblies, will take place from a large shoebox-shaped structure cantilevered atop the reactor building, which was damaged in an explosion after the earthquake and tsunami. The assemblies, each holding about 80 rods, will be moved to a separate pool less damaged by the disaster.
Tepco has said that it plans to complete removal by the end of 2014.

Sic Semper Tyrannis Revealed

歐元區經濟復甦脆弱

歐洲或陷入“失去的十年” - 歐元區經濟從長期滑坡中復甦的勢頭在第三季度喪失動能，令外界更加擔心歐洲可能陷入經濟停滯、失業率高企和政治不滿並存的“失去的十年”


歐元區經濟從長期滑坡中復甦的勢頭在第三季度喪失動能，令外界更加擔心歐洲可能陷入經濟停滯、失業率高企和政治不滿並存的“失去的十年”。
週四公佈的數據顯示，第三季度歐元區國內生產總值(GDP)較前一季度僅增長了0.1%；折合成年率的增幅為0.4%，增幅遠低於第二季度，當時歐元區的決策者和經濟學家們開始憧憬陷入困境的歐元區將走出陰影。
儘管明年的經濟增長預計略微加速，但是歐元區要恢復5年前的金融危機前的產出和就業水平仍需時日。
數年來歐元區經濟幾乎停止增長，加上財政緊縮政策破壞了較好的社會保障制度，這引發公眾對歐洲政界的不滿。在明年的歐洲議會(European Parliament)選舉中，選民預計將拋棄主流政黨，屆時包括極右和極左派黨員的反對黨預計將獲得較高支持率。
在歐洲大陸的多數地區，經濟復甦乏力讓很多人感覺經濟還會繼續衰退。尤其是在債台高築的南歐地區，由於收入承壓，民眾和政府在在償還高額負債時面臨困難。
巴黎市中心Le Mesturet飯店的主人Alain Fontaine表示，擔憂情緒困擾著大家。在今年削減了投資規模後，他本打算在明年1月份對酒吧進行裝修，但是眼下這一計劃​​和為大多數員工加薪的計劃都被擱置了。
經濟復甦乏力表明歐元區不僅尚未走出危機，只是情況發生了變化，風險則在加劇。
2010-2012年，金融市場的動盪曾一度令歐元區面臨解體的威脅，但是自從歐洲央行(European Central Bank)去年承諾將不惜一切代價拯救歐元區後，這一風險得到了控制。歐洲央行成功穩定住了市場，這表明危機的急性發作期要比歐洲政府艱難努力所顯示出來的情況更容易處理。
但是依然存在的慢性病症更為棘手。在需求不振、通脹率長期保持較低水平的情況下，歐元區成員國很難找到辦法，實現恢復銀行業、消費者和政府財務狀況所必需的經濟增長率。
對此並沒有確切的政策方案。雖然歐洲央行將利率降至接近零的水平，但是基本未顯示出刺激了信貸或投資的跡象。
歐洲的決策者們否認了所謂“失去的十年”這種說法，這一術語曾被用於描述20世紀80年的拉丁美洲債務危機和20世紀90年的日本經濟停滯局面。歐洲央行行長德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上週表示，如果以局外人身份看歐元區，會認為該地區的基本面可能是全球最強勁的。原因是歐元區的預算赤字在縮窄並且貿易順差較大。
然而許多經濟學家表示，這兩個數據暴露出瞭如下問題：在歐洲經濟滑坡、需求不振的情況下，財政政策緊縮得太厲害。包括美國在內的其他主要經濟體越來越擔心，歐洲不會為促進全球經濟增長做出應有貢獻。
第三季度歐元區成員國經濟幾乎無一實現強勁的增長，反駁了雙速歐洲(two-speed Europe，指的是一些歐洲國家的增長率明顯超過其他國家）的言論。即使德國經濟上個季度也僅僅增長了0.3%（折合成年率增長了1.3%），因為歐洲需求疲軟和全球經濟增長不均衡，削弱了該國的出口。
國際社會呼籲德國增加公共和私人支出，此舉招致德國方面的反對甚至是不滿。德國經濟仍明顯倚重製造業而不是消費，該國仍要依賴全球其他地區的需求。
德國對歐洲央行實施的貨幣刺激政策表示反對，這也加深了歐元區成員國之間的政治分歧，凸顯出歐元區成員國在如何經營一國經濟方面存在意見相左的情況。
歐洲方面也不乏亮點。西班牙經濟上個季度轉而實現較低增長，因勞動力成本下滑惠及該國出口商。經濟學家們表示，意大利經濟預計第四季度恢復增長。雖然希臘經濟仍在萎縮，但是幅度有所減弱。
不過法國和意大利的經濟均小幅萎縮。意大利GDP連續第9個季度下滑。法國總統奧朗德(Francois Hollande)正在努力進行經濟改革並打消公眾對於國家衰落的擔心，法國經濟此時下滑給他帶來打擊。
法國企業諮詢機構ACDEFI的經濟學家Marc Touati表示，法國仍處於投資縮減、失業率居高和經濟停滯不前的惡性循環中。
最近幾周法國公司的競爭力下滑問題受到關注，從工程巨擘阿爾斯通公司(Alstom)到法國唯一的鋼琴製造商Ateliers Pleyel等大大小小的企業都公佈了裁員計劃。
許多意大利企業的境遇甚至更糟糕。托斯卡納本地的貸款機構Caripit的董事長Alessio Colomeiciuc表示，無論價格高低，房地產市場基本上沒有任何活動。
與危機前相比，意大利的工業產值已經下滑了25%，許多倖存下來的企業不得不裁員和降價銷售產品。
羅馬一家無?網絡及監控系統供應商So.Tel的總裁Rosario Sgroi表示，公司的利潤率太低了，比過去少多了。不過訂單開始增加，因為客戶意識到他們不能永遠推遲投資。我們似乎正在走出黑暗期，儘管步伐非常緩慢。
Brian Blackstone / Christopher Emsden / William Horobin

手足情深 初生龍鳳胎浸浴緊抱

頁岩氣霸業 為再生能源鋪路

王冠一

2013年11月18日

【明報專訊】上周，國際能源署(IEA)一份關於對美國頁岩能源產力的研究報告，推斷美國憑藉開採頁岩能源技術的優勢，有望在2016年前超越沙特阿拉伯及俄羅斯，成為全球最大產油國。但報告估計美國的稱霸只有十年光景，理由是產量雖多，但消耗更快，結果大大縮短美國本土頁岩油氣田的壽命。


不過，從美國的能源戰略層面而言，十年能源稱霸，足矣！?且國際能源署的報告似乎別有用心：安撫石油輸出國組織(OPEC)。報告強調十年後非油組國的產量將回落，屆時全球的石油消費國，又會再一次甘拜中東產油國的裙下。

IEA報告 安撫石油輸出國
自從美國頁岩能源崛起之後，中東的傳統產油大國，無不感到巨大威脅，因為昔日OPEC透過控制產量以抬高國際油價的功能，有可能被美國增加產油所削弱，國際油價的話事權，亦有可能逐步從油組轉到美國手上。

國際能源署擔心，萬一OPEC認定，石油定價權將永遠被美國奪去，因而主動減少擴大產能的投資，會令全球依賴美國頁岩油氣的出產，加速美國藏量枯竭。一旦美國產油供應中斷，全球將陷入另一次大型的石油危機。

因 此，國際能源署報告，明顯在安撫沙特以至一眾中東產油國，鼓勵他們及早加大資本投資以擴大產能，因為中國、印度等亞洲國家的能源需求異常巨大，即使美國樂 見國際油價因供不應求而高企，但總不願見到油企為了賺取「油元」而只顧出口，令美國本土反而供不應求，零售能源價格上漲，最終影響民生。

再生能源2020年料已大熟
就 算國際能源署估計無誤，美國頁岩能源只能風光至2020年(其實不足十年)，只要美國在這段時間確保本土能源供應充裕，零售能源價格受控，還有剩餘產出貢 獻出口，頁岩能源的霸業即使在2020年後衰落亦未必是壞事，因為屆時再生能源業相信已經發展成熟，傳統石油燃氣能源變得落伍。

回想起 來，當日德國的默克爾政府，即使未知能否在大選中勝出，仍敢承諾2022年前改造德國成為無核化國家，決心為全國轉用再生能源定下時間表，足見德國在能源 政策方面的高瞻遠矚。面對調整新能源戰略的德國，美國豈會留戀即將過時又相對不夠環保的頁岩油氣技術，而放棄急起直追？

碳排放目標將更新
再者，有理由相信，不消十年，國際社會便會制訂好全新的控制碳排放目標，正式取代《京都議定書》。屆時，進入低碳世紀較遲的國家，經濟發展的成本將會相對較高。

估計新能源市場尚要十載時間才告成熟，在這十年的過渡期，暫時仍靠傳統能源餵飽全球胃口。所以，筆者鬥膽斷言，美國頁岩霸業，十年足矣，因為之後便輪到新能源稱霸。

Jim Rogers: U.S. Stock Market Dominated By, “Kids With Very Little Experience And Just Enough Brains To Be Dangerous”

I was able to reconnect this week with Jim Rogers, legendary co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, author of the recently released Street Smarts, and chairman of the private Beeland Holdings.

Jim was kind enough to take the call while at a train station in Shanghai, so due to the call quality, the entire written transcript as well as the audio recording is available below.

—

Tekoa Da Silva: Jim, you mentioned in Street Smarts a very interesting quote, that when selling during bull markets and a bull market top, “What you want is a kid with very little experience, and just enough brains to be dangerous.” What did you mean by that statement, and are there markets in the world today that you see dominated by kids with just enough brains to be very dangerous?

JR: Well, I suspect the United States stock market at the moment, is one of those markets. It’s artificial what’s going on, you have this lady in Washington printing a lot of money, and it’s a very artificial kind of scenario. Now unfortunately—I know that. But a 25 year old will think this is the way the world is; stocks are going up, everything she buys works, and she has nothing to worry about, she thinks this is the best thing ever. It’s in a market like this that you need somebody who doesn’t understand what’s going on, and I’m sure there are other markets like it too, but the U.S. is the obvious example of a market like that as we speak, herein, going into 2014.

TD: Jim, you’ve also been warning to anybody willing to listen about the dangers of the staggering U.S. debt, and you mentioned in Street Smarts that, “Sometime in this decade the whole system is going to collapse”. So when you think about that in terms of collapse, what does that mean—is that skyrocketing interest rates, declines in asset prices—mayhem?

JR: It’s all of the above. You saw what happened in 2008-2009, which was worse than the previous economic setback because the debt was so much higher. Well now the debt is staggeringly much higher, and so the next economic problem, whenever it happens and whatever causes it, is going to be worse than in the past, because we have these unbelievable levels of debt, and unbelievable levels of money printing all over the world. Be worried and get prepared. Now it [a collapse] may not happen until 2016 or something, I have no idea when it’s going to happen, but when it comes, be careful.

TD: Jim, when you say “get prepared”, how can people do that, and do you mean people should continue to pull some assets out of the financial system in terms of holding them physically?

JR: Well, when things collapsed in 2008, people who were overextended with debt, or had investments they didn’t understand, or weren’t liquid enough, got hurt very badly as you know. That is going to happen again, and that’s why I’m urging people to just get prepared, be sure you understand what’s going on, be sure you understand your investments, be sure you’re not overextended, because when it comes, there’s not going to be much warning. I’m certainly not going to know when it’s coming, I wish I did, but I won’t.

TD: And you mean that in terms of being liquid Jim, having lots of liquidity?

JR: Well, one should never go into any liquidity crisis without liquidity, so when the liquidity crisis comes, obviously the ideal is to get totally liquid the day before the crisis comes. But I’m not any good at telling you the timing of it. I wish I were.

TD: Jim, to talk about commodities for a moment, you noted in Street Smarts that we have a few years left in the commodities bull market, so when you say a few years—do you mean 5 or 7? Or do you mean potentially 10 or 15 more years for commodities?

JR: I doubt it would be 10 or 15, that would be one of the longest ever in recorded history, but certainly I don’t see any reason why it cannot be another 5 to 7. I don’t know, but it really will depend on when the capacity comes on stream, so far we don’t have huge amounts of new capacity coming on stream, so the bull market can continue. [But] so far there are not massive amounts of new supply that have come on stream.

TD: Jim, what are your thoughts on the precious metals, as well as the mining sector, which has been one of the most beat up sectors in the market over the last year or two?

JR: Well remember, gold went up 12 years in a row, which is extremely unusual. I know of no asset in history which has gone up 12 years in a row, so the anomaly was the performance of gold for those 12 years. Now, the anomaly is going to be in the consolidation, in the correction. I don’t know, but I’m not buying gold at this point, because I suspect there’s going to be another chance to buy gold later in the next year or two. So I’m not buying gold yet, only because I know that the bull market for 12 years was an anomaly, so the correction should be an anomaly too. As you may know, the Indian politicians are now trying to do their best to destroy the gold market. They’ve put on huge controls and taxes on the Indian gold market. India’s the largest buyer of gold in the world, and it’s already having an effect. So the Indians are now trying to figure out a way to make the Indians sell their gold. Now if India goes from being the largest buyer of gold, to a seller of gold—who knows how low the price of gold will go. I know it will go a lot lower. So I’m not buying gold yet.

TD: Jim, in terms of the mining sector, do you still avoid the companies that produce the commodities due to the risks associated with management and so forth?

JR: If you figure out the right mine, the right company—you could make a fortune. So I don’t avoid them. For me, it’s simple these days to buy the commodity itself, but if you find the right mine, you’ll make a lot more in the right mine than in the commodity. But the problem is, there’s hundreds of—no, thousands of mining companies, so you have to be very careful.

TD: Alright well, Jim Rogers, investor, world traveler, and author of the new book entitled, Street Smarts, thanks for sharing your comments with us, from a train station there in Shanghai.

JR: Certainly, thank you.

—

This was another powerful interview, conducted with an absolute legend of our time. It is required listening for serious investors and market students.

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>>Interview with Jim Rogers (MP3)

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Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking

鮑爾森維持黃金持倉、索羅斯增持 CFTC報告顯示空頭返場

CFTC報告顯示，美聯儲耶倫上週四（14日）承諾繼續推進刺激前夕，投資者們對黃金的看多程度下跌，對沖基金們持有的黃金空倉翻番。

據CFTC數據，在截至11月12日的一周裡：

    投資者持有的黃金淨多頭期貨和期權合約大幅下跌37%至55,456手，這一跌幅為2月來最大。

    黃金空頭合約從前一周的26,490手上升至54,143手，為8月中旬以來最高水平。

另據美國證監會14日披露的文件，三季度鮑爾森維持黃金ETF持倉規模不變，索羅斯增持。

    SPDR Gold Trust最大投資者——Paulson & Co.三季度維持SPDR Gold Trust持股規模不變，仍為1023萬股。 SPDR Gold Trust是全球最大黃金ETF。

    三季度索羅斯買進了110萬股Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF。

三季度金價上漲8%，為一年來最大單季漲幅，這歸功於二季度暴跌23%之後的一波大反彈。

但金價今年可能遭遇2000年以來的首次年度下跌。美國股市屢創新高，且通脹率僅為​​1.2%，為過去10年的一半水平，這些均削弱了投資者對黃金的信心。今年二季度，鮑爾森曾削減超過一半的SPDR股份，索羅斯也清空了全部SPDR持倉。

耶倫發表證詞的前五個交易日里，金價累計下跌3.7%。不過，上週四金價漲逾1%，因耶倫稱在經濟出現強勁增長前，準備好繼續採取刺激措施。如果耶倫提名獲得參議院通過，那麼她將成為下一任美聯儲主席。

紐約National Securities Corp.首席市場策略師Donald Selkin評論說：

    耶倫聲明之前，人們對黃金非常悲觀。耶倫的言論是鴿派的，可以認為QE削減會向後推遲，這絕對會對黃金有幫助。但黃金價格仍在下跌的主要原因在於：通脹率低，且股市繼續上漲。