銀價或將迎來暴風雨後的寧靜

銀價上演過山車的日子或已一去不返。

這一所謂的“魔鬼的金屬” (Devil's Metal)在今年頭兩個月中價格上漲了33%，然後又回吐了幾乎一半的漲幅。但對銀價來說，這還算相對平穩的：去年1至4月份，銀價飆升了57%，最終卻以9.8%的跌幅作別2011年。

高昂的保証金要求正在遏制銀價波幅。紐約商交所Comex分部5,000盎司期銀合約的初始保証金為21,600美元，相當於合約面值的13%左右。而相應的黃金和原油期貨合約的初始保証金為10,125美元和6,885美元，分別為合約面值的6%和6.6%。

更高的保証金要求打擊了投機者的積極性：未平倉銀期貨合約數僅略高於100,000張，遠低於去年峰值150,000張。而且據金屬咨詢公司CPM Group稱，去年對於實物銀的投資需求雖然有所攀升，但也只佔到總體需求的14.2%。

銀 的命運與全球經濟表現更加相關。CPM數據顯示，2011年工業應用、攝影、電子產品和珠寶方面的需求佔銀需求總量的86%左右。鑒於歐洲經濟陷入泥淖， 中國經濟料將減速，而且美國經濟復蘇步伐未穩，很難對銀的工業需求上升產生信心。所以，銀期貨價格從2月份的頂點每盎司37.14美元回落了10.5%。

如果經濟明顯好轉，或是貨幣政策進一步放鬆，銀價將受到提振。不幸的是，這兩者分別代表了對經濟最樂觀和最悲觀的假設。

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)最新的會議紀要也打擊了市場對進一步定量寬鬆政策出台的預期。目前，在多重阻力之下，經濟正在緩慢但持續地復蘇，這個沒有太多戲劇性的現實預示著，銀價也不會出現戲劇性的波動。

Tatyana Shumsky


http://chinese.wsj.com

JPM To Pay 'Wristslap Fine' in Misuse of Customer Segregated Funds at Lehman Brothers

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

In extending the credit, JPM assumed that the customer money that was being held by Lehman Brothers could be freely used by the firm, and therefore was a legitimate part of its valuation. The comparison to MF Global is obvious.

In other words, if MF Global had not failed to meet its margin call and gone bust, they might have been fined $20 million in four or five years, while taking in billions in profit and bonuses. What a deterrent!

Although using customer segregated funds to calculate the value of a company is not nearly as egregious as actually stealing them, it does betray a certain mindset on Wall Street that seems to have prevailed in the last ten years or so.

'This land is our land, their money is our money.'

Or perhaps there was an outbreak of sloppy book-keeping on Wall Street as the Fed induced credit bubble reached its apogee in the fraudulent securities packaging market. Who could blame them?

The $20 million fine is incidental to JPM and the violations which occurred over four years ago.  And I am sure that as part of settlement, JPM will agree not to do it again, while admitting no guilt.

Perhaps this action by the CFTC is more symbolic than effective. The question I have is what does it really mean?

The $20 million is nothing to JPM, but the CFTC could certainly put it to good use. Perhaps they could use it to move along their study exposing the outrageous manipulation in the silver market by one or two banks that has been slowly moving along for the past four years. Now that is a symbol that we might believe in.

Bloomberg
JPMorgan Pays $20 Million to Settle CFTC Segregated-Fund Claims By Gregory Mott Apr 4, 2012

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) will pay $20 million to resolve U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission claims that the bank mishandled customer segregated funds from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. from 2006 to 2008.

The CFTC announced the settlement with JPMorgan in a statement today. Mary Sedarat, a spokeswoman for New York-based JPMorgan, wasn’t immediately available for comment.

未來三個月的白銀

取材自網路
2011年眾多行業增速下滑。例如作為支柱產業的汽車行業，去年銷售增長僅為2.45%，創13年來新低。2012年發改委連續兩次提高油價，使得當今油價高漲，對汽車業的具有極大的負面影響，汽車業的縮減將造成汽車業使用的鉛電池，銅的用量將會大幅減少，房地產的持續調控也會減少銅的使用量，近八成的白銀是在生產鉛鋅、銅的過程中被動生產出來的（看看中國股票的上市公司都知道這一點，豫光金鉛、銅陵有色、雲南銅業、株冶集團、中金岭南、江西銅業等生產白銀的大戶皆是被動生產白銀的公司，只有一家純一點的白銀上市公司ST盛達，其生產白銀的規模很小） 。白銀的供應量會急劇減少，由於白銀具有廣泛的用途，油價高漲對白銀的消費量影響較小，這就造成極大的供應缺口，考慮到時間的滯後效應，可以想像三個月後難以買到投資銀條。
 
由於供應缺口造成白銀價格飛漲對美元極大的負面影響不符合美國的利益，美國及其盟國可能會釋放戰略石油儲備以降低石油價格，但是可以想到的是石油價格下降將降低石油吸收美元的儲水池功能，美元大規模的流動性將造成美元對黃金白銀的大幅貶值，降低美元對世界各國的信任，現在世界各國之間互換貨幣的現像不斷增多，規模不斷加大，並且各國跟美國一樣不斷釋放流動性。由於白銀價格極低，規模極小，也可以想到三個月後難以買到投資銀條。
 
從上面的兩種情況看來不管是油價漲或者油價跌，我認為三個月後現貨投資白銀都難以買到！（三個月內黃金、白銀下跌符合熱錢收割資源的目的，三個月後即使銀價低廉，但是有價無貨的可能性很大。）
 
打破國有銀行的金融壟斷，銀行股會下跌；堅持房地產的調控，地產股也會下跌；黃金、白銀等大跌，有色股也會下跌；還是買實物投資銀條穩當，即使著套很快會解套的，主動著套也比以后買不到好