2012年5月24日星期四
The 2 Billion Dollar Loss By JP Morgan Is Just A Preview Of The Coming Collapse Of The Derivatives Market
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
當消息傳出，摩根大通的投資虧損了20億，金融界大吃了一驚。但這只不過是一個小小的開始，讓我們預覽一下即將發生的衍生市場倒閉的情景。
當大家想到華爾街，就聯想到一群嚴肅和沒有想象力的銀行家，不停的買賣股票和債券。但事實上，在過去的三十年間，這個行業已經有很大變化。今天的華爾街其實已經變成全球最大的一個賭場。
當所謂“大到不能倒閉”的銀行賭贏了，他們就是賺大錢。但當他們賭輸了，他們就大輸錢。摩根大通正正就是賭輸了。但20億算得是什麼。
沒有人能準確知道各大銀行在這個衍生市場所賭的金額，只能夠作估計，而一般的估計就是在700萬億和1,500萬億之間。當這個衍生泡沫爆破的時候，全世界的資金都不足以來挽救。
很可惜的是，當主流傳媒報導這個新聞，他們連“衍生”這兩個字都不敢提及。他們只有用“錯誤投資”來形容這件事。
有趣的是，摩根大通其實是在眾多同業之中最保守的一名，最不願意作高“風險”的投資。因此，如果穩重的摩根大通尚且如是，其他華爾街大行的賭博行為會是更加驚人。
Does Jamie Dimon Even Know What Hedging Risk Is?
關於公司損失了 20億之事，摩根大通的總裁Jamie Dimon說是因為某些對沖活動出了問題引致的。
當消息傳出，摩根大通的投資虧損了20億，金融界大吃了一驚。但這只不過是一個小小的開始，讓我們預覽一下即將發生的衍生市場倒閉的情景。
當大家想到華爾街，就聯想到一群嚴肅和沒有想象力的銀行家，不停的買賣股票和債券。但事實上，在過去的三十年間，這個行業已經有很大變化。今天的華爾街其實已經變成全球最大的一個賭場。
當所謂“大到不能倒閉”的銀行賭贏了，他們就是賺大錢。但當他們賭輸了，他們就大輸錢。摩根大通正正就是賭輸了。但20億算得是什麼。
沒有人能準確知道各大銀行在這個衍生市場所賭的金額，只能夠作估計，而一般的估計就是在700萬億和1,500萬億之間。當這個衍生泡沫爆破的時候，全世界的資金都不足以來挽救。
很可惜的是，當主流傳媒報導這個新聞，他們連“衍生”這兩個字都不敢提及。他們只有用“錯誤投資”來形容這件事。
有趣的是，摩根大通其實是在眾多同業之中最保守的一名，最不願意作高“風險”的投資。因此，如果穩重的摩根大通尚且如是，其他華爾街大行的賭博行為會是更加驚人。
摩根大通總裁關於 "對沖風險" (Hedging)有多少的理解﹖
Does Jamie Dimon Even Know What Hedging Risk Is?
關於公司損失了 20億之事，摩根大通的總裁Jamie Dimon說是因為某些對沖活動出了問題引致的。
但
這個解釋有很大的問題。任何對沖活動都與買保險一樣。你是因為恐怕之前所作的某些投資的價值下跌而蒙受損失，所以你決定買個保險來對沖。對沖的作用就是萬
一你之前所作的投資價值下跌，你不會受損因為對沖的價值相對必然上升。有了對沖的保險，一負一正之下，你就得以補償大部份的損失。這是保險的原理，花少少錢買個安心。
所以如果摩根大通真的只不過是進行對沖活動，絕不會蒙受那麼巨大的虧損。這足以證明摩根大通所作的不是對沖（買保險）而是沒有任何對沖的高風險賭博。(If the loss on your hedges is not being
cancelled-out by gains in your initial portfolio then by definition you are not
hedging risk. You are speculating.)
擁有最巨大的衍生市場合約的頭五名華爾街銀行如下﹕
摩根大通 (J.P.Morgan) :資產1.8萬億 ﹔衍生合約70萬億，是資產的39倍
美國花旗銀行 (Citi Bank):
資產1.3萬億 ﹔衍生合約52萬億，是資產的40倍
美國銀行 (Bank of America): 1.45萬億 ﹔衍生合約50萬億，是資產的34倍
高盛銀行 (Goldman Sachs):
1千億 ﹔衍生合約44萬億，是資產的423倍!!!!
匯豐銀行（美國）: 資產2千億 ﹔衍生合約4萬億，是資產的210倍!!!!
從以上可見，這五間銀行的衍生合約（賭博）小部份稍稍出事，銀行的資產已經要蒸發，更何況銀行的資本那一部份呢﹖其實可以說這些銀行實際上已經破了產，只不過是由於政府讓他們報假數，無需要以市場價計算資產值
(mark to market)，而是任他們作虛構的資產價值 (mark to model)。銀行很多的資產根本就是壞帳，沒有市場價值，垃圾都不如。
更甚者，單一間摩根大通 (J.P.Morgan) 的70萬億衍生合約就已經等於全球的總生產值
(World GDP) 了!!!
沒有人能準確知道衍生合約的總值有多少。一般的估計是由700萬億 (700 trillion) 至1,500萬億 (1,500 trillion)。全球的總生產值只不過是
更甚者，單一間摩根大通 (J.P.Morgan) 的70萬億衍生合約就已經等於全球的總生產值
(World GDP) 了!!!
沒有人能準確知道衍生合約的總值有多少。一般的估計是由700萬億(700 trillion)至1,500萬億 (1,500 trillion)。全球的總生產值只不過是70萬億。不受監管的衍生市場的總值則是全球GDP的10至21陪。
G. Edward Griffin 細說聯準會
G. Edward Griffin最出名的著作《The Creature from Jekyll Island》，
主要在探討聯準會如何成立和金錢如何被創造的細節。雖然這本書在1994年出版，但讀起來就好像今天才寫的一樣。其內容以淺顯易懂的說故事手法來闡述聯準
會是如何以操控金融體系的方式來奴役人民，書中更一語道破了洛克斐勒(John D.
Rockefeller)在西元1903年設置普通教育委員會(The General Education
Board)基金會的目的，也就是並不像當時廣大群眾所相信的，是要提升美國教育的水準；而是要利用金錢的力量來影響教育方向，目的是藉由教室來傳授並鼓
勵人們對領導者表現出被動且服從的態度。其目標從以前到現在都一樣，就是要創造出有足夠教育水準的公民，在管理監督下可以有效的工作；但是又不能創造出教
育水準太高，高到會質疑權威、尋求超越他們階級的公民。真正的教育只在上流菁英們的子女間傳授，其餘的人，最好是成為沒有特別抱負，不懂享受人生的專業工
人。
包括羅勃特清崎在《有錢人的大陰謀》一書裡也大力推薦此書，2005年時日文、德文版本也陸續問世，不過比較可惜的是至今仍然沒有中文版。
此段演講的影片當中，G. Edward Griffin以幽默風趣但平易近人的方式，讓我們了解到許多原本我們不了解的真相。
包括羅勃特清崎在《有錢人的大陰謀》一書裡也大力推薦此書，2005年時日文、德文版本也陸續問世，不過比較可惜的是至今仍然沒有中文版。
此段演講的影片當中，G. Edward Griffin以幽默風趣但平易近人的方式，讓我們了解到許多原本我們不了解的真相。
金價築雙底 下半年或反彈 未來幾年走勢看好
香港《文匯報》報導，金銀業貿易場理事長張德熙昨 (20) 日出席「直擊金磚五國」尋金之旅研討會時表示，不排除金價會下探上次低位每盎司
1522 美元，甚至更低的 1400 至 1500 美元，但若築成雙底後，有可能在今年第 3 、 4 季反彈，而未來 2 、 3 年仍然看好。
冠一資產管理首席策略師王冠一昨日亦在同一場合表示，金價有可能再試低位，若未來金價跌至 1522 美元後反彈，那麼金價有可能已經築成雙底，金價走勢會向好，有機會升至每盎司 1800 美元。
張德熙並表示，歡迎港交所收購倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) ，指收購有助行業發展，可提升香港的金融地位，市場能從中獲益。他說， LME 是從事期貨交易，而香港金銀業貿易場是從事現貨交易，兩者可互相補充。
張德熙並表示，歡迎港交所收購倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) ，指收購有助行業發展，可提升香港的金融地位，市場能從中獲益。他說， LME 是從事期貨交易，而香港金銀業貿易場是從事現貨交易，兩者可互相補充。
Leading Cycle Theorist Predicts “BIG Volatility Come September/October” ; Reality Will Make Its Way Known
http://www.shtfplan.com/
In the 1970′s he predicted gold’s meteoric rise and its 1980 top to the day. He published a full page advertisement in USA Today warning of the impending collapse of stock markets in the 1987 Savings & Loan crash – and nailed that one to the day. He saw the collapse of the Japanese real estate market and warned his clients that a depression was coming. In the late 1990′s he contacted Russian officials to advise them of an impending meltdown of their currency due to forces beyond their control – and he was right again.
He lives in New York today, but for the better part of the last decade he was held in federal prison. His charge? Officially, nothing. Unofficially, he was held in contempt of court for nearly ten years for refusing to hand over his cyclical economic models to Goldman Sachs and the US Government. According to the powers that be, Armstrong was manipulating the world economy, and because he refused to share his prescient models, they locked him away without charge or trial – indefinitely.
He may sound like a fictional character out of a Hollywood blockbuster, except Martin Armstrong is the real deal, and he’s been warning of a paradigm shift unlike any we have witnessed in history.
With the US government expediently acting to restrict personal liberties, nearly incalculable amounts of national debt, Europe on the brink of a break up, and confusion in global asset markets, Armstrong’s Private/Public cyclical models are indicating that the world better get ready for a rough ride – and soon.
The subsequent result of this fleeing of capital from perceived and actual risk will have the effect of strengthening the US dollar, which means a potentially powerful rebound in US Treasuries as investors rush to preserve their wealth in what they believe to be the safest asset available. Yes, it sounds counter-intuitive to rush to safety in the US dollar given the state of affairs in America, but despite the constant criticism from international financial experts we remain the largest economy in the world and just so happen to control the printing presses of the world’s reserve currency.
According to Armstrong, we’re not far off from such an event, and we may very well see it take place this Fall, as uncertainty and panic grips international markets and forces the hand of governments, big banks, and individual investors.
Given his expertise in history, economics, mathematics and cyclical theory, if there is one person who may have a handle on what information to gather, how to analyze it, and what it means, it’s Martin Armstrong. He’s proven it time and again, and it looks as if his alarms are blaring.
As noted above, while panic and capital flight may significantly and negatively impact some asset classes in the very near future, we don’t have to worry about a total economic doomsday for America just yet. First, all of the money will flow here for safety. But this flight-to-quality will be short-lived, as the ever expanding national debt and government run amok will ultimately lead to a loss of confidence in the US dollar itself.
The scale of this event – this loss in confidence of the reserve currency of the richest nation that has ever existed on Earth – will be unprecedented in human history.
Also Watch: The Oracle – Martin Armstrong (Trailer):
In the 1970′s he predicted gold’s meteoric rise and its 1980 top to the day. He published a full page advertisement in USA Today warning of the impending collapse of stock markets in the 1987 Savings & Loan crash – and nailed that one to the day. He saw the collapse of the Japanese real estate market and warned his clients that a depression was coming. In the late 1990′s he contacted Russian officials to advise them of an impending meltdown of their currency due to forces beyond their control – and he was right again.
He lives in New York today, but for the better part of the last decade he was held in federal prison. His charge? Officially, nothing. Unofficially, he was held in contempt of court for nearly ten years for refusing to hand over his cyclical economic models to Goldman Sachs and the US Government. According to the powers that be, Armstrong was manipulating the world economy, and because he refused to share his prescient models, they locked him away without charge or trial – indefinitely.
He may sound like a fictional character out of a Hollywood blockbuster, except Martin Armstrong is the real deal, and he’s been warning of a paradigm shift unlike any we have witnessed in history.
With the US government expediently acting to restrict personal liberties, nearly incalculable amounts of national debt, Europe on the brink of a break up, and confusion in global asset markets, Armstrong’s Private/Public cyclical models are indicating that the world better get ready for a rough ride – and soon.
Via Armstrong Economics:In 2012 Predictions of a Mad Tin Foilist we opined that if a collapse of the stock market was to take place in 2012, that it would originate in Europe, with investors fleeing risky assets there to the relative “safety” of none other than the US Dollar – much like they did in 2008. This flight-to-quality will be the driving force behind crashing stocks and commodities (perhaps even gold), as well as potentially devastating losses in the debt markets of Europe and Japan.
I have warned that the United States would be last to fall because it is the core economy being both the largest as well as the reserve currency. I have warned that this will not collapse into dust all at the same time. Each link will break one at a time cascading like dominos. This is not my OPINION – it is history.
…
Greece will be forced to leave for staying under the terms of Germany will bring civil war. Social unrest is erupting and what the US and German authorities FAIL to understand is we are dealing with a BELL CURVE and not a linear progression. There has to be balance between austerity and stimulation. It is like heat and cold. Both extremes will kill you. We survive in the middle
…
It is true that rising interest rates can attract capital. However, when capital FLEES, interest rates CONTINUE to rise due to the shortage of capital. NOTHING is ever a straight line. BIG Capital is fleeing Europe and that goes to government debt because it is liquid and can absorb vast amounts.
…
We have to understand what I call this Public v Private battle in confidence. This can also be called the flight-to-quality that appears during a crisis. The primary trend that is common in all economic declines is what is described as the flight-to-quality. This is at the core of capital flow for it represents the first criteria in how capital moves betweenPublic and Private Assets.
The flight-to-quality is traditionally observed by just about everyone and it is unleashed whenever confidence in the private assets collapses. Investors panic, sell private assets, and rush to government bonds driving interest rates down sharply. During the 2007-2009 crises, interest rates in the USA virtually went to zero. In other words, people were willing to accept no interest just to park their cash in a safe place they saw as government assets when they feared even banks would not survive.
…
The shift in this flight-to-quality attitude is always at the core of capital movement. During a generational Private Wave, investment and speculation become common place. During a Public Wave, private assets are looked upon as risky and the safer bet is to invest and trust government.
…
So understanding what we are facing right now is critical to our survival. We must understand that forecasting a single market in isolation is asking for disaster. To comprehend the true global implication of how capital moves, we must embrace a global correlation approach. We are headed for BIG volatility come September/October. Reality should start to make its way known going into year-end. So hold on tight. This will be a rough ride.
Source: Manipulating the World Economy Or Just Understanding How It Really Functions?
The subsequent result of this fleeing of capital from perceived and actual risk will have the effect of strengthening the US dollar, which means a potentially powerful rebound in US Treasuries as investors rush to preserve their wealth in what they believe to be the safest asset available. Yes, it sounds counter-intuitive to rush to safety in the US dollar given the state of affairs in America, but despite the constant criticism from international financial experts we remain the largest economy in the world and just so happen to control the printing presses of the world’s reserve currency.
According to Armstrong, we’re not far off from such an event, and we may very well see it take place this Fall, as uncertainty and panic grips international markets and forces the hand of governments, big banks, and individual investors.
Given his expertise in history, economics, mathematics and cyclical theory, if there is one person who may have a handle on what information to gather, how to analyze it, and what it means, it’s Martin Armstrong. He’s proven it time and again, and it looks as if his alarms are blaring.
As noted above, while panic and capital flight may significantly and negatively impact some asset classes in the very near future, we don’t have to worry about a total economic doomsday for America just yet. First, all of the money will flow here for safety. But this flight-to-quality will be short-lived, as the ever expanding national debt and government run amok will ultimately lead to a loss of confidence in the US dollar itself.
The scale of this event – this loss in confidence of the reserve currency of the richest nation that has ever existed on Earth – will be unprecedented in human history.
Also Watch: The Oracle – Martin Armstrong (Trailer):
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