2014年12月29日星期一

2014年全球市場八個想不到


陶冬天下 - 陶冬 2014年12月29日 


 2014-12-29 
  2014年始於阿根廷違約爭拗,終於俄羅斯匯率危機,上半年波瀾不動,下半年起伏跌宕,其變數乃全球危機以來之罕見,幾家歡喜幾家愁。 

  
第一個想不到:通貨膨脹全面走低 
  
  經過美國三輪QE,歐洲日本接力放水,中國人民銀行也定向寬鬆,殊不知全球通脹不升反降。石油價格下降當然是拉低物價水平的重要因素,但是最根本的是除了美國之外各國經濟了無起色,就業信貸裹足不前,世界各地通縮壓力在集聚。CPI轉向的直接後果是投資需求再次轉弱,消費信心疲憊,全球經濟復甦路茫茫。 

  
第二個想不到:國債利率不升反降 
  
  年初時候,幾乎所有經濟學家均認為,美國QE退出加速,歐洲央行和中國人民銀行追後,日本銀行下半年停止擴張。但是事實上美國聯儲在加息上相當猶豫,言辭極其溫和,美國十年期國債利率在衝向3.4%之後迅速回落,並在2.3%樓下企穩。歐洲央行更由收縮資產負債表轉為預告美式QE,德國國債利率創下歷史新低。中國人民銀行也出人意料地降息,國債利率並非最低,但是比起年初市場預期卻低出許多。無風險資金成本逗留在歷史低位,為各國股市創新高提供了彈藥。 

  
第三個想不到:美元美股屢創新高 
  
  經濟學家的共識曾是,美國經濟溫和復甦。殊不知年中之後美國非農就業增加異軍突起,六個月平均數值超出上週期峰值,消費信心也創新高。國內儲蓄尋求較高收益,海外資金追逐盈利增長,美股屢創新高。美元升值,不能算意外,但是其破竹之勢卻令人瞠目。與其說是美元強勢,不如說是對手貨幣太弱。美國復甦走強和其它國家經濟乏善可陳,說明了一切。  

  
第四個想不到:石油價格大幅墜落 普京身陷匯率危機 

  
  幾乎所有石油國家、石油公司年初作預算時,均將油價假設在每桶100美元之上,的確石油價格在相當時間在100-110美元之間徘徊。但是夏末以來油價一路滑落,沽空盤飆升。生產能力過剩、需求未見改善、中東北非地緣政治趨緩,是三個油價下挫的理由,OPEC為打擊競爭對手聽任油價下跌則是市場看空的近期藉口。油價下滑可能為明年爆出黑天鵝事件埋下伏筆。 

  

  普京在處理烏克蘭危機上,處處著先機,直至石油價格暴跌。油價意外下跌,觸發盧布貶值,俄羅斯企業海外集資遭遇困難,國內資金外逃。該國央行被迫大幅提高利率,經濟在匯率、利率上腹背受敵,企業債可能出現大面積違約。同時匯率貶值導致進口商品價格暴漲,民生受到衝擊,銀行也面臨擠提風險。 

  
第五個想不到:中國A股異軍突起 
  
  A股已經連續四年辱居全球股市倒數三位,2014年前八個月仍無起色。不過之後的A股市場突然雄起,在滬港通的催化劑之下,民間儲蓄湧入,走出一輪久違的強勢,備受全世界的矚目。A股走勢似乎未得到經濟與盈利基本面的支持,但是政策指向十分清楚,人類歷史上前所未有的成交量是這輪流動性主導的行情的地標。 

  
第六個想不到:債券大王黯然出走 
  
  PIMCO主席格羅斯的職業生涯,就是美國三十年國債牛市的寫照,他的絕對回報基金執行業之牛耳,在市場向來呼風喚雨。格羅斯近年看市出錯,加上個人行為變得詭異,觸發內部逼宮政變,債王掛冠而去。今年十大贖回基金中,五隻來自PIMCO。有趣的是,格羅斯並沒有為新東家帶入多少新的資金,一代債王就此黯然退出資金舞台。 

  
第七個想不到:對沖基金進退失據 
  
  對沖基金光環漸退,日子近來尤其難過。今年上半年,市場波幅幾乎消失,令靠市場波動賺錢的對沖基金難以捕獵。下半年波幅擴大,但是貨幣政策、石油價格走勢詭異。對沖基金今年平均回報僅有2%,還不夠支付管理費,贖回大增。估計2014年關門大吉的對沖基金數量超過千家(其中宏觀基金和商品基金是重災區),傷亡率接近全球危機後的2009年。 

  
第八個想不到:企業並購如火如荼 
  
  美國經濟復甦提速、融資成本低廉、股市情緒高漲,觸發全球並購高潮,其中美國和中國企業尤其活躍。2014年前十一個月的企業兼併金額已經超過2007年的全年水平,這次並購聚焦於美國龍頭企業兼併競爭對手和中國國營企業走向海外,歐洲與日本企業則處於冬眠狀態或成為被收購目標,這些估計將改變國際競爭力和行業版圖。 

  
  當然2014年還有一些意料之內的變化,安倍經濟學無以為繼、新興市場風險疊加、大宗商品需求慘淡、中國增長階梯下行。這一切印證了筆者關於全球經濟走勢分歧、市場波動加劇的觀點,也預示著2015年市場風險的增加。全球貨幣政策的不明朗與資金走向的亂波,為2014年帶來了許多的意外。也許2015年,有更多的意外等著發生,市場進入了沒有央行保底的新常態。 

In the Year 2024


James Rickards
[Editor’s Note from Jim Rickards: The following article describes a fictional dystopia in the spirit of Brave New World or 1984. It is not a firm forecast or prediction in the usual analytic sense. Instead, it’s intended to provide warning, and encourage readers to be alert to dangerous trends in society, some of which are already in place. Thank you.]

 
As I awoke this morning, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, from restless dreams, I found the insect-sized sensor implanted in my arm was already awake. We call it a “bug.” U.S. citizens have been required to have them since 2022 to access government health care.

The bug knew from its biometric monitoring of my brain wave frequencies and rapid eye movement that I would awake momentarily. It was already at work launching systems, including the coffee maker. I could smell the coffee brewing in the kitchen. The information screens on the inside of my panopticon goggles were already flashing before my eyes.

Images of world leaders were on the screen. They were issuing proclamations about the fine health of their economies and the advent of world peace. Citizens, they explained, needed to work in accordance with the New World Order Growth Plan to maximize wealth for all. I knew this was propaganda, but I couldn’t ignore it. Removing your panopticon goggles is viewed with suspicion by the neighborhood watch committees. Your “bug” controls all the channels.

I’m mostly interested in economics and finance, as I have been for decades. I’ve told the central authorities that I’m an economic historian, so they’ve given me access to archives and information denied to most citizens in the name of national economic security.

My work now is only historical, because markets were abolished after the Panic of 2018. That was not the original intent of the authorities. They meant to close markets “temporarily” to stop the panic, but once the markets were shut, there was no way to reopen them without the panic starting again.

My work now is only historical, because markets were abolished after the Panic of 2018. 
Today, trust in markets is completely gone. All investors want is their money back. Authorities started printing money after the Panic of 2008, but that solution stopped working by 2018. Probably because so much had been printed in 2017 under QE7. When the panic hit, money was viewed as worthless. So markets were simply closed.

Between 2018–20, the Group of 20 major powers, the G-20, abolished all currencies except for the dollar, the euro and the ruasia. The dollar became the local currency in North and South America. Europe, Africa and Australia used the euro. The ruasia was the only new currency — a combination of the old Russian ruble, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen — and was adopted as the local currency in Asia.

There is also new world money called special drawing rights, or SDRs for short. They’re used only for settlements between countries, however. Everyday citizens use the dollar, euro or ruasia for daily transactions. The SDR is also used to set energy prices and as a benchmark for the value of the three local currencies. The World Central Bank, formerly the IMF, administers the SDR system under the direction of the G-20. As a result of the fixed exchange rates, there’s no currency trading.

All of the gold in the world was confiscated in 2020 and placed in a nuclear bomb-proof vault dug into the Swiss Alps. The mountain vault had been vacated by the Swiss army and made available to the World Central Bank for this purpose. All G-20 nations contributed their national gold to the vault. All private gold was forcibly confiscated and added to the Swiss vault as well. All gold mining had been nationalized and suspended on environmental grounds.

The purpose of the Swiss vault was not to have gold backing for currencies, but rather to remove gold from the financial system entirely so it could never be used as money again. Thus, gold trading ceased because its production, use and possession were banned. By these means, the G-20 and the World Central Bank control the only forms of money.
Some lucky ones had purchased gold in 2014 and sold it when it reached $40,000 per ounce in 2019. By then, inflation was out of control and the power elites knew that all confidence in paper currencies had been lost. The only way to re-establish control of money was to confiscate gold. But those who sold near the top were able to purchase land or art, which the authorities did not confiscate.

Those who never owned gold in the first place saw their savings, retirement incomes, pensions and insurance policies turn to dust once the hyperinflation began. Now it seems so obvious. The only way to preserve wealth through the Panic of 2018 was to have gold, land and fine art. But investors not only needed to have the foresight to buy it… they also had to be nimble enough to sell the gold before the confiscation in 2020, and then buy more land and art and hang onto it. For that reason, many lost everything.

Land and personal property were not confiscated, because much of it was needed for living arrangements and agriculture. Personal property was too difficult to confiscate and of little use to the state. Fine art was lumped in with cheap art and mundane personal property and ignored.

Stock and bond trading were halted when the markets closed. During the panic selling after the crash of 2018, stocks were wiped out. Too, the value of all bonds were wiped out in the hyperinflation of 2019. Governments closed stock and bond markets, nationalized all corporations and declared a moratorium on all debts. World leaders initially explained it as an effort to “buy time” to come up with a plan to unfreeze the markets, but over time, they realized that trust and confidence had been permanently destroyed, and there was no point in trying.

Wiped-out savers broke out in money riots soon after but were quickly suppressed by militarized police who used drones, night vision technology, body armor and electronic surveillance. Highway tollbooth digital scanners were used to spot and interdict those who tried to flee by car. By 2017, the U.S. government required sensors on all cars. It was all too easy for officials to turn off the engines of those who were government targets, spot their locations and arrest them on the side of the road.

In compensation for citizens’ wealth destroyed by inflation and confiscation, governments distributed digital Social Units called Social Shares and Social Donations. These were based on a person’s previous wealth. Americans below a certain level of wealth got Social Shares that entitled them to a guaranteed income.

Those above a certain level of wealth got Social Donation units that required them to give their wealth to the state. Over time, the result was a redistribution of wealth so that everyone had about the same net worth and the same standard of living. The French economist Thomas Piketty was the principal consultant to the G-20 and World Central Bank on this project.

By 2017, the U.S. government required sensors on all cars. 
To facilitate the gradual freezing of markets, confiscation of wealth and creation of Social Units, world governments coordinated the elimination of cash in 2016. The “cashless society” was sold to citizens as a convenience. No more dirty, grubby coins and bills to carry around!

Instead, you could pay with smart cards and mobile phones and could transfer funds online. Only when the elimination of cash was complete did citizens realize that digital money meant total control by government. This made it easy to adopt former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ idea of negative interest rates. Governments simply deducted amounts from its citizens’ bank accounts every month. Without cash, there was no way to prevent the digital deductions.

The government could also monitor all of your transactions and digitally freeze your account if you disagreed with their tax or monetary policy. In fact, a new category of hate crime for “thoughts against monetary policy” was enacted by executive order. The penalty was digital elimination of the wealth of those guilty of dissent.

The entire process unfolded in small stages so that investors and citizens barely noticed before it was too late. Gold had been the best way to preserve wealth from 2014–18, but in the end, it was confiscated because the power elites knew it could not be allowed. First, they eliminated cash in 2016. Then they eliminated diverse currencies and stocks in 2018. Finally came the hyperinflation of 2019, which wiped out most wealth, followed by gold confiscation and the digital socialism of 2020.
By last year, 2023, free markets, private property and entrepreneurship were things of the past. All that remains of wealth is land, fine art and some (illegal) gold. The only other valuable assets are individual talents, provided you can deploy them outside the system of state-approved jobs.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

黃金全年均價跌10%跑贏商品

石林:

聖誕假期過後,2014年金市只余下三個交易天,現不妨提早小結與之相關的金融市場年內至今的表現。 

一、貴金屬類︰黃金-0.72%、白銀-17.22%、鉑金-11.43%、鈀金+14.12%。 

二、貨幣類︰美元+12.49%、非美元貨幣-11.9%、歐羅-11.29%、日圓-12.44%。 

三、美國債券類︰30年期債券價格+18.09%、10年期債價+2.86%、5年期債價-1.1%、2年期價-0.76%。 

四、商品類︰美國期油-44.13%、期銅-16.45%、CRB商品期貨指數-16.25%、高盛商品指數-32.13%。 

五、股票類︰金甲蟲指數-17.65%、美國道指+8.91%、香港恒指+0.18%、中國上證指數+49.23%。 

通過小結,往往發現一些意想不到的事,說明人的思想通常滯後,預測能力頗為有限。 

白銀年均價跌兩成 
先談談對金市的預測。上周金價以1195.8元(美元.下同),這比受淡友支持、但遭好友抨擊的高盛今年終預測價1050元高出不少。但八家大型投行對年終價的平均數為1202元,竟然相當接近事實。其中又以瑞銀預測的1200元、巴克萊預測的1205元,兩者成績最好。其實衡量一年金市表現,單以年終收市價作標准乃相當片面,較客觀是用全年平均價計算。今年至今倫敦金下午定盤的平均價為1266.97元,較2013年的平均價1411.23元低出144.26元或10.22%,也是金市連升11年後連續兩年報跌。 

金價短期低位拉鋸 
LBMA每年初都舉辦競猜當年平均價的活動,今年可能是MKS Switzerland S.A.公司的FredericPanizzutti掛冠,他預測全年平均金價是1262元。至于銀市,今年至今倫敦銀定盤平均價為19.1157元,比2013年的平均價23.7928元下跌4.6711元或19.63%,乃連跌3年。今年初參與競猜者當中,竟然有4人成績與實際相當接近,他們預測價同為19元。但冠軍現為Barclays公司的SukiCooper,與Thomson Reuters GFMS公司的RhonaO"Connell兩人同得,他倆當時估計的年內銀高低價與實際行情較為接近。 

今年美國貨幣政策逐趨「正常化」,此令資金繼續流入債市而少流入金市。年內至今,金價對長債價的比率下跌了15.93%。此外,美國與其他國家的經濟表現迥異,後者仍擺脫不了衰退的困擾,導致兩者的貨幣政策愈發背馳。這一方面造成美元表現一枝獨秀,另一方面令商品價格大幅下跌、通縮陰影揮之不去,如此等原因都令黃金的吸引力下降。此現象體現在最大的黃金ETF〈SPDR〉持金量,上周末減降至712.3噸,為2008年9月22日以來的最低水平。又可體現在金甲蟲指數〈HUI〉更跌至金融海嘯時的最低水平,與屢創新高的美股相比,可謂伊人獨憔悴。 

然而全球危機四伏,黃金還起著資金避難所的角色,金價表現仍比大多數商品好得多。近期金銀兩市有一現象,熊方用柔力往下壓,牛方則伺機反擊,上周末後者又施以突襲,短期進入在目前水平上下拉鋸的市勢。金市暫以1170元為支持,日內支持且上移至1185元,而關鍵支持是1160元;回升阻力分別在1207元和1214元。銀市則暫以15.53元為支持,而關鍵支持在15.03元;回升阻力分別在16.47元和16.91元。基本因素顯示兩市未有大升的條件。 

時屆歲晚,石林預祝各位新年進步!