2013年9月27日星期五
Billionaire Sprott - Metals Smashed As West Hemorrhages Gold
On the heels of another plunge in gold and silver, today billionaire Eric Sprott warned King World News that the smash in gold and silver is being accomplished through unprecedented levels of dwindling Western central bank gold being supplied into the market. He also spoke about the massive gold and silver demand. Below is what Sprott, Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, had to say in part I of this remarkably powerful interview series.
Eric King: “Eric, I have to start of talking to you about this smash in gold and silver that we’ve seen here very recently. It’s continuing this morning, your thoughts here?”
Sprott: “As you
know, Eric, I take a big macro view of gold here, and what I sense all
along is that the Western central banks must really be running on fumes
when it comes to (physical) gold. I must say that I am never
disappointed by the data points that I see in physical gold.
For
example, I just saw the Perth Mint, their gold sales were up 50% and the
silver sales are up 70%. The Bank of England, the Royal Canadian Mint,
all of the sales are up and getting into seriously high numbers. All
the while, this is all predicated on the gold and silver supplies hardly
going up at all.
“And so the big
macros are (one): What is China doing? Now, we have one data point on
China and one only, and that’s exports from Hong Kong into mainland
China. But I can assure you there are exports (of gold) from places
different than Hong Kong, into China, but we don’t get to see the
numbers.
So I
can imagine (the immense) gold flows from Geneva to Shanghai, or London
to Beijing, or New York to Shanghai, but the Chinese don’t publish that
data. But the data (which is published) shows that China is (now)
importing over 100 tons (of gold) each month.
I
think for your listeners (and readers) the important thing to understand
is that 2 years ago, back in 2011, China imported something like 200
tons of gold. We’re (now seeing the Chinese) running at 1,200 tons of
gold. That’s a (staggering) 1,000 ton change in a 4,000 ton market.
That’s 25% of the market they are now gobbling up that they didn’t
gobble up 2 years ago, and through that whole time period the price of
gold has (remarkably) gone down.
I
think if anybody asked themselves if we heard the Chinese were buying
25% of the wheat market, the corn market, or the oil market, we would
all imagine the price had gone up. So I’ve long believed that the
central banks, through the raids on gold, the raid on GLD, and through
leasing, have provided this gold into China and other countries.
As Sean Boyd recently pointed out to you (on KWN),
you could look at 3 sources of gold (buying), India, China, and the
central banks, and you can almost account for all of the (entire world’s
annual) gold production. This really means that nobody else would be
able to buy gold, but we know there are lots of other people buying
gold.
So I
think there is a continued suppression going on -- the numbers
(definitely) argue for that. There aren’t a lot of numbers available,
but even the few we have, like the six or seven sources, I calculated a
year ago that there is a shortfall of something like 2,200 tons (of
gold) each year in a 4,000 ton market.
If I
updated the Chinese numbers it might be a (remarkable) 3,000 ton
shortfall, which by the way exceeds all (global) mine supply in the
(entire) year. So, I think, ultimately, not withstanding the stuff that
goes on on the COMEX, and as I thought about this interview it seemed
to me that the price of gold and silver almost flatlined for six hours
yesterday (laughter ensues). Then, bang! In one hour it goes down $25
between 3:00 and 3:30 AM (EST) in the morning (during very thin
trading), and then I guess another tranche down here (in price)
subsequent to the COMEX opening.
I
found it stunning that it would be flat all that time (yesterday), and
then all of the sudden there is this huge raid. You have to wonder,
well, you don’t wonder, you know exactly what’s going on, it’s being
marked down. And I suspect it might be because of the big decision
coming out of the FOMC next Wednesday.”
黃金的五十道陰影
高盛認為美聯儲會宣佈縮減買債計劃，因而預測金價將在2014年底跌至每盎司1,000美元，此事在市場上掀起了軒然大波。高盛同時也建議黃金生產商為黃金產量進行對衝，以鎖定2013年的金價。
匯豐分析員同樣也看跌黃金，但同時也表示下調金價預測是因為排除了中國等新興市場的實物需求。匯豐認為2014 年底的黃金價格約為每盎司1,435美元。
謹記Agora Financial的Bryon King所說的這句話：“高盛做的所有事都是為了自己，而非你。”黃金市場瞬息萬變，就在高盛發表預測的幾天后，美聯儲便出乎意料地宣佈會繼續每月850億美元的買債計劃。貴金屬價格隨即錄得近15個月以來的最大升幅，令黃金投資者大為雀躍。
和許多商品不同的是，黃金有許多陰影面，例如喜愛交易(Love Trade)將黃金送予摯愛之人，恐慌交易(Fear Trade)則將黃金作為儲存價值的途徑。而另外一道投資者需要注意的“陰影”是美聯儲如何詮釋美國經濟復蘇的定義。
有幾個原因令我相信伯南克會顛覆市場原有的想法。在美聯儲宣佈決定前，我告訴加拿大新聞網路(Canada’s Business News Network)，結束量化寬鬆不會出現得十分唐突，因為這並非一個非黑即白的問題。
美國就業數據增長並無太大進展，皆因近期新創造的職位多為兼職工作。《投資者商業日報》(Investor’s Business Daily，IBD)將就業不理想的情況歸咎於總統奧巴馬的醫療法案。奧巴馬醫改實施後，有超過300名員工減少工時或減少工作量，或者從全職轉為兼職。雖然為美國市民提供可負擔且有保障的醫療服務是好事，但實施法案後卻為企業帶來意料之外的結果，導致全職工作減少。
IBD的圖表顯示了旅館行業中的非管理階層自2000年以來的每週平均工時。在每一次的經濟衰退期間（2001年和2008年至2009年），平均工時都會下跌。但是直到奧巴馬醫改實施後，強制僱主必須為每週工作超過30小時的員工提供醫療保健計劃，平均工時再度驟然下降。在7月，旅館行業的每週平均工時跌至28.8小時的新低。
除了增加就業職位外，房屋也的復蘇情況也不如眾人所預期的理想。我向路透社表示，許多人都沒有發覺大眾所關注房地產市場其實範圍十分狹窄。根據《今日美國》(USA Today)，7月有超過一半的房屋都是透過現金交易。例如在佛羅裏達州，超過三分之二的房屋交易都不涉及按揭貸款。在內華達州，約有65%的房屋買家直接以現金付款，然後是緬因州，有60%是現金交易。這是否因為銀行業的明文規定導致買家申請按揭借貸過程過於繁複？
房屋是就業最大的收益增值率，每1美金用於購買房屋，便會有約16美元用於其他相關的經濟活動。利率偏低時，便會有越多人申請按揭貸款。他們會興建房屋、支付搬家服務費用和購買新傢具，因而使多個行業聘請更多員工。
然而，一旦利率迅速上升，房屋市場便會停滯不前。之前符合資格申請按揭貸款的人士也因為利率上升而失去資格，這代表新房產總量將會迅速上升。
與此同時，大型銀行將會宣佈裁減按揭貸款部門的員工。就在週二，美國富國銀行(Wells Fargo)宣佈由於再融資活動放緩，將會裁員1,800名。該銀行也已經通知2,300名員工不用繼續上班，皆因利率上升導致按揭和再融資活動減少。
由此可見，美聯儲不應該立即縮減買債和提高利率，而是要循步漸進。我相信政府將會繼續維持低利率一刺激經濟發展。
這也將有利於股市和黃金。若利率繼續處於低水準，實際利率便能夠維持在負數。在多倫多資源投資會議中(Toronto Resource Investment Conference)，我曾就資源和新興市場的機遇發表演講，我告訴聽眾利率升至2%便會是黃金的臨界點。過往的經驗來看，若實際利率維持與低水準或者負數，黃金和白銀的表現較好。
無論分析員認為今年的金價走勢會如何，我們都相信黃金和黃金股會是使投資組合更多元化的最佳選擇。我們應該選擇高品質的黃金生產商，包括資源基礎、生產量和現金流量都有所增加的公司，而不是試圖猜測市場時機。
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