2013年1月8日星期二

黃金VS.貨幣:一張圖印證黃金的不朽地位

2012年雖然不像之前大多數分析師和華爾街大佬們預計的那樣是個黃金大牛年,但是以所有主流貨幣計價的黃金價格在這期間都有所上漲。

又到了辭舊迎新的關口,像去年這時候一樣,依然有眾多分析師或投行看漲新一年的黃金市場,也許未來幾年內,黃金不會像2005-2007年那樣讓你的財富成倍翻漲,但至少從過去近十年的數據來看,黃金並沒有愧對“避險天堂”的稱號。


下圖為2004年以來,以所有主流貨幣計價的黃金價格每年的漲跌情況。


以美元計價的黃金價格在過去9年中的年均漲幅為15.3%:



如果你在2004年用印度盧比買入黃金,並且至今未拋售,那麼祝賀你,2004年至2012年間,你的黃金投資每年平均收益率高達17.4%。
即使是市場普遍認為黃金表現不夠強勁的2012年,如果你是用日元投資的,也能收穫高達20.7%的利潤。
近十年來,與其說是黃金價格在飆漲,不如說是在“不朽的黃金”面前,各國貨幣紛紛落馬。

“最恐怖圖表”:美國遭遇史上最嚴重就業衰退

上週五美國非農就業數據公佈,結果顯示美國12月新增非農就業人數15.5萬,失業率上調至7.8%。

下圖被Calculated Risk稱為“最恐怖的圖表”,分析了美國現階段的就業衰退-復甦情況。


該圖對比了目前這一次就業衰退與歷史上多次就業衰退歷程的情況,不難看出,從2007年開始的這一輪就業衰退是歷史上程度最深的。


Bill McBride表示,“下圖顯示出目前就業衰退的深度,比過去每次戰爭過後的衰退程度都要糟糕,而由於房市泡沫和金融危機的後期效應影響,就業復甦也相對更為緩慢。”





安倍新政初露端倪,貨幣政策“終局之戰”蓄勢待發



安倍晉三面對的是一個棘手的工作。日本經濟去年二季度和三季度收縮,已經符合衰退的定義,而11月份工業產出下跌幅度遠超預期,創下自2011年大地震以來最低記錄。
 
市場對安倍2.0時代報以熱切的期望,做空日元、做多日股成為市場最熱門的策略,但安倍究竟會怎麼做?擁擠的交易意味著市場對於不利的消息格外脆弱,所有人都眼巴巴地看著安倍的作為。
 
近期,安倍政府開始逐漸向外放風,讓外界得以一睹安倍2.0時代的日本“抗通縮”新政的面貌。
 
財政刺激
 
日本《讀賣新聞》報導,在本月宣布的截至今年3月本財年預算追加案中,日本政府將推出規模約12萬億日元的財政刺激措施,其中公共項目支出規模5-6萬億日元。
 
路透得到的草案文件顯示,日本政府將成立總規模3500億日元(約合40億美元)的兩隻基金,作為新首相安倍晉三激發企業投資與啟動經濟的刺激措施之一。
 
“聯手”央行
 
路透援引日本媒體消息稱,日本政府和央行正在考慮簽署一個聯合政策協議,將設定包括2%通脹目標和穩定就業增長在內的共同目標。
 
據報導,這份協議將不設定達到2%通脹目標的截止日期或具體的措施,以使得日本央行在實施貨幣政策時有足夠的靈活性。
 
這一政策想法已經在多個央行、財政部官員間流傳,官員們急切地渴望向市場展示其採取大膽行動將日本經濟拖出泥潭的決心。
 
最終決定將在日本央行1月21-22日的議息會議上做出,屆時央行將討論設定高於當前1%的通脹目標。 2012年12月日本基礎貨幣增至創紀錄的131.9837萬億日元(約合1.5萬億美元),同比增長11.8%,遠超預期的5.3%和11月同比增幅5%。
 
購買歐債
 
日本將購買ESM和歐元區主權債,日本財長麻生太郎稱此舉將“幫助削弱日元、幫助歐洲”。
 
購債資金將來自日本外匯儲備。據彭博,麻生今天向記者做了介紹,但他表示具體購債金融尚未決定。
 
麻生說道:“歐洲的金融穩定有助於包括日元在內的貨幣匯率穩定。處於這一觀點,日本計劃購買ESM債券。”
 
事實上,日本此舉意在削弱日元同時避免來自美國、韓國等貿易夥伴對其貨幣政策的批評。
 
摩根大通日本首席經濟學家Masaaki Kanno向彭博表示:“歐洲會很樂意看到日本的購債行動,因此日本可以避免來自外部的批評同時又達到目的(日元貶值)。”
 
然而,安倍新政也開始產生一些不良的後果。
 
一些此前數月都在要求政府採取行動讓日元貶值的企業高層如今開始警告稱,如果日元貶值的幅度過大、速度過快,可能使得日本的燃油成本飆升。
 
據WSJ報導,這些日企的高層讚揚了安倍新政府刺激經濟、壓制日元的做法,但他們也警告稱,如果經濟持續疲軟並且政府不採取措施控制財政赤字的話,投資者可能失去對日本的信心,使得日元自由落體。
 
而另一個受到安倍新政影響的則是日本的養老基金。
 
據養老基金顧問向彭博表示,受到日本尋求刺激通脹來拉動經濟的做法影響,日本養老基金將在未來兩年內將其黃金持倉翻番。
 
日本養老基金顧問、前WGC駐日本代表Itsuo Toshima稱:到2015年,日本養老基金持有的黃金ETP資產將從目前的不到450億日元擴大至1000億美元。
 
安倍設定通脹目標、終結日元升值的政策意味著日本養老基金如今不得不尋求對沖價格上漲和貨幣貶值。他們將投入黃金的懷抱,以日元計價的黃金一周前創下歷史新高。

$231,014 Solid Gold Shirt Bought By Banker




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 Spending on assets that appreciate, rather than consumption goods such as vacations may very well be the ultimate lesson to employ in the new-year. At least that was the logic this Indian man employed when deciding to buy his $231,014 gold shirt.

The story broke in India, covered by Ukmalayalee, which reported the shirt to weigh 3.5kg, equivalent to 113 troy ounces, assuming the shirt is solid gold. At $1,650 a troy ounce, the $44,564 premium “employed as many as 15 goldsmiths from Bengal, [who] worked for 16 hours a day over a period of two weeks to make the shirt.”
The buyer was quoted in Pune Mirror newspaper commenting on his purchase.


People buy cars and go on holidays abroad. For me, gold is the ultimate passion. That is the reason I have spent a whopping amount of money on the shirt. I am looking at it as an investment which will keep appreciating… I inherited a fair amount of gold; I also want to leave behind a sufficient amount of gold for the next generation.
“The buyer is in the business of money lending,” reported Ukmalayalee, yet we note that he does not invest in paper gold, such as ETFs, despite the cost of crafting physical gold, whether jewelry or coin format. In India, 61% is spent on jewelry, and 39% on coins, bars, and other investments.


Does this banker not realize that the Indian central bank desperately wants people to save in paper gold, whereby their individual demand for gold is sequestered, and does not impact the real physical gold market? About $2 billion in Indian wealth has been tricked into investing in these products, according to a 2012 Goldman Sachs report.

Either way, the population at large has continued to ignore the worries of the central planners; it is not possible to covertly steal wealth from those who save in gold.

One place planners have relented is companies that lend against gold as collateral. A report from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s central bank, says “asset quality, bad loans, capital adequacy and borrowing sources of these companies aren’t a cause for concern.” Whether the banker with the gold shirt lends against gold, or against collateral more common in the west is another matter; however, lenders who do accept gold as collateral commented to Bloomberg:

“The report clears all negative perceptions that lending against gold is not a socially useful function,” Oommen K Mammen, chief financial officer of Muthoot Finance, said in a phone interview. “The report saying that there is no systemic risk due to the gold-loan business is the biggest takeaway for us.”
This comes as good news for the gold community. The Indian government became increasingly frustrated this year with the cultural bias towards physical gold savings, and attempted to impact behavior by doubling import taxes. This improves the revenue stream for the government, and makes precious metals effectively more expensive for Indian importers. Taxes on silver and gold money incentivize people to use paper currency that is not taxed, so long as the rate of loss in purchasing power in paper currencies is less than the tax on metals.

This last point is very important. When citizens believe that price inflation will be “their biggest economic concern,” as it is for U.S. voters, they may calculate that the future loss of the purchasing power of paper currency will be greater than the difference between saving in currency in banks without penalty and saving in precious metals including a tax. It appears our gold-shirted Indian lender has already done the math.

We add in closing that this underscores the ground-shift taking place some Eastern nations. When gold and silver money are not taxed, the monetary metals compete on a level playing field with un-backed paper currencies. This means more people will view gold and silver as money, using them to both store value and transact. Anyone who views silver and gold as money has infinite demand for them, just as you or I personally have an infinite demand for dollar bills today—who does not want more money? Only mediums of exchange enjoy infinite demand, whereas the demand for hamburgers or automobiles is finite.
As for the Indian banker, who understands one can never have too much gold and silver, he planned to wear his new shiny shirt to ring in the New Year.