2013年11月16日星期六

Investors Flock to Silver Coins




Silver coins are gaining favor among investors and sales could rise to a record high in 2013, thanks to a sharp fall in the precious metal’s price.
Demand for silver, which is sought after by investors and industrial users alike, is expected to rise, consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS said in a recent report. The industrial sector accounts for about 45% of global silver consumption, it said.
One-ounce silver bullion coins at the U.S. Mint.
Bloomberg News
“Physical demand [for silver coins] surged this year, and is expected to grow by 19% year on year,” the consultancy said.
Spot silver traded on on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $18.24 a troy ounce in late June, the lowest in almost three years, boosting its attractiveness to investors. The metal was down around 32% at $20.71 an ounce Thursday.

But sales of silver coins are “poised to match record sales levels witnessed in 2011,” Thomson Reuters GFMS said, adding that spot silver prices are likely to rise and average $24.24 an ounce in 2013.

Already, sales of the U.S. Mint’s American Eagle silver coins have surpassed 2012 levels, as investors are snapping silver coins up “at a breakneck pace,” said Dallas-based precious metals dealer Dillon Gage Inc.

The dealer expects American Eagle silver coin sales in the U.S. to exceed a record of 39.868 million troy ounces set in 2011. Silver coin sales totalled 39.17 million ounces in the 10 months ended Oct. 31, eclipsing the 33.74 million ounces sold in 2012, it said.

“Eagles are one of the most convenient ways to invest in silver bullion. They are much easier to sell, store and transport than large silver bars,” said Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage.

In Asia, silver coin demand has been increasing since the start of the year, said Zane Lim, regional manager at precious metals dealer Bullionstar.com.

“American Eagle silver coin is the most popular product in our portfolio,” Mr. Lim said. “For a new investor, silver is attractive and coins are easier to purchase with greater liquidity compared to bars.”

Coin buyers are usually long-term investors, analysts said, and global economic uncertainties have pushed investors toward gold coins. Data from the U.S. Mint showed demand for American Eagle gold coins is on track to exceed last year’s, with 752,500 ounces sold between January and October, just short of 2012 sales of 753,000 ounces.

Worries about the stability of the U.S. federal government amid a 16-day partial shutdown in October helped boost American Eagle gold-coin sales to 48,500 ounces last month, more than triple the 13,000 ounces sold in September.

But demand for silver coins remains stronger than that for gold coins, partly because each ounce of gold costs about 60 times more than silver. Also, silver’s greater volatility compared to gold makes it attractive to investors with a large risk appetite, Thomson Reuters GFMS said.



http://blogs.wsj.com

歐洲降息為哪般

陶冬 

幾個月前,美國聯儲討論taper時,市場在猜測歐洲何時退出,談論聲音之大、範圍之廣,令歐洲央行總裁不得不親自出來否認。11月7日,歐洲央行不僅沒有退出,反而出人意料地將政策利率下調25點。

在歐洲經濟已現復蘇、國債市場已趨穩定之時,歐洲貨幣當局為何要再松貨幣政策? 


儘管GDP已有兩個季度呈正增長,歐洲經濟復蘇與美國相比,就業幾乎未見改善跡象,南歐房價仍在下跌之中。少了勞工和房市兩大支柱,歐洲與其說在復蘇,充其量是經濟已經企穩。近來歐元的走強,令歐洲失去增長的唯一依靠,復蘇之路變得更艱難,更不確定。
 
更令歐洲當局擔心的是,通貨膨脹迅速回落,歐洲有陷入通縮陷阱之虞。通縮之下,消費者傾向持幣待購,需求收縮,令投資止步,就業乏力,收入預期下降,消費意欲進一步下滑。
 
通貨膨脹其實是目前歐洲債務國步出債務陷阱的重要跳板。一般民眾對名義工資下降十分抗拒,對削減社會福利十分抗拒。但政府需要重新均衡經濟,相 對易行的就是通過通貨膨脹,無形中令工資縮水,提高競爭力,令社會福利縮水,降低財政赤字。上世紀九十年代的德國,便是通過此招恢復經濟活力,走出兩德統 一後嚴重經濟衰退的。目前歐元區CPI僅有0.7¼Œ遠低過貨幣當局2%的“最優目標”。通縮預期是心理現象,直接誘發消費、投資的連鎖反應,一旦形成不 易改變。日本近四分之一世紀的經歷,便是例證,促使歐洲貨幣當局罕見地迅速出手。
 
但是歐洲央行此舉,在內部引起頗大爭議。包括德國兩票在內,北部工業化程度較高的國家代表,一共投下六張反對票。發達歐洲第一是憂慮重債國不思 改革,放棄市場集資,在優惠的政策利率庇護下得過且過;其次,他們擔心本國的通貨膨脹。南歐經濟減弱,與北歐強勁增長和飆升中的資產價格形成強烈對照。各 國經濟基本面不同,物價壓力不同,卻要面對“一個鞋碼適合所有的腳”的歐洲貨幣政策。德國明顯已遭受物價與房價上升的折磨,卻還要應對更多的流動性和更低 的資金成本。此乃歐元的內在機制性缺陷。
 
歐洲降息能不能救經濟?只要銀行還是熱衷於賺取政策利率與國債利率之間的息差,而不導引資金投向實體經濟,歐央行所為乃無用之功。