馬田大師--Did Operation Twist Send 30 Year Rates to Record Lows

Ows Gold.pdf

Copyright Martin Armstrong all right reserved October 7th, 2011
Occupy Wall Street, Gold &
Did Operation Twist Send the
30 Year Rates to Record Lows?
The Occupy Wall Street movement is going national. There were a few hundred now in downtown Philadelphia opposite my office and some have tents. This movement lacks a clear direction. Some signs said jail the rich. Others seem to be Marxist and demanding an end to capitalism. This is the problem when the market manipulators own the SEC, CFTC, the courts, the press, and the prosecutors no less Congress. They are not about to arrest primary dealers who sell their paper for them they would fear not being able to borrow money. The primary dealers are financial crack dealers that have Washington hooked. This is now turning to target Goldman Sachs and Congress. This should get interesting. Leave the stock brokers alone! They are not “Wall Street” as that term has been used.
The protestors, even if they spout Marxist dogma, have an ABOSLUTE right to protest even if I disagree with that dogma. If they are not free to speak, they neither am I. They were not being abused in Philadelphia as has been the case in New York City. The NY Police Department (NYPD) is illustrating for the whole world just how corrupt NYC really is. Many foreigners have commented that what should everyone expect when Bloomberg is the Mayor and his business was servicing Wall Street. Yet just as the bankers donate to politicians, J.P. Morgan Chase is believed to have just donated an unprecedented $4.6 million to the New York City Police Foundation. The gift was the largest in the history of the foundation. So, it is presumed that NYPD will defend the bankers to the bitter end.
It is a shame that the market manipulators have given Wall Street such a bad name. The Panic of 1869 was called Black Friday because they dragged the bankers out and hung them on Wall Street. It was no about shopping. This whole thing can get very ugly and this is preciously what I have always been against the market manipulators. They give everyone else a bad name. They will destroy society for a quick GUARANTEED dime. They are the reason for the rising hatred of Americans in general and the corrupt court system in New York is destroying the entire world financial system to protect the banks.

GOLD
I still get emails of people who will just not stop with the gold standard stuff. They just don’t get it. BEEN THERE – DONE THAT! We had a gold standard and they still printed more dollars than there was gold at the “standard” fixed rate. It is NOT what is MONEY, but who is in charge of the system. We need POLITICAL REFORM, not some gold standard. Those who keep yelling “fiat” think money is a store of value. It NEVER has been. Gold should be free so you can buy it as a hedge. Why would you want to hand it back to government? Additionally, these ideas that somehow unless money is 100% backed it is not real is nonsense. To create a system they purport you have to eliminate credit, borrowing, and banking. If you have a $20 gold piece and deposit it in a bank and I borrow $20 in gold, we both have accounts showing $20 but there is just one coin. ALL credit leverages the money supply creating a “fiat” system constructively. To create a world where money is an IOU on a one-for-one-basis, there cannot be ANY credit whatsoever. Gold is a hedge. Leave it alone. We don’t need government getting their dirty hands on it. Hello! What’s the problem!
For now, it will take a daily closing ABOVE 1822 to signal a low is in place. Otherwise, a weekly closing BELOW 1605 will signal a renewed decline or a daily closing below 1577.

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迫在眉睫

現在看起來我們是過於樂觀經濟，黃金在過去的一周內企穩了上漲了0.98%。現在的黃金也飽受爭議，多空的分歧聲較大。介於黃金周線的表現，再次出現大幅下降是迫在眉睫。

數家亞洲央行9月份動用了巨額外匯儲備，以在歐元區債務危機導致全球市場動蕩之際抑製本幣大幅貶值

印度尼西亞央行上週五表示，截至9月30日，該行儲備資產較上月減少101億美元，至1,145億美元，反映出隨著海外投資者從該國撤出資金，央行為減緩印尼盾的動盪趨勢進行了入市干預。
相比之下，菲律賓的儲備資產下降3.01億美元，至756.39億美元，降幅較為溫和。菲律賓央行將外匯儲備降低的原因歸結為政府債務償付減少及央行黃金儲備價值重估後出現損失。但交易員也懷疑該行近期曾干預匯市，最近一次是在上週二入市支持比索。

新加坡9月末外匯儲備減少155.6億美元，至2,336.2億美元。該國儲備減少的原因不明，而新加坡金融管理局也不提供外匯儲備增減的原因。

韓國於上週三表示，9月末該國儲備減少88億美元，至3,033億美元，為自2008年11月份以來的最大單月跌幅。分析師認為，造成該現象的原因包括為支撐韓圓而進行的入市干預，以及歐元走低進而導致折合成美元的歐元計價資產貶值。

如報導屬實，那麼就是在9月份美元開始反轉之後，已經有資本開始淨流出發展中國家，各大亞洲央行開始動用外匯儲備來支撐熱錢流出來支撐本國貨幣。
 
黃金和大宗商品的上漲及反彈伊始於7月初，對於生成周期性極強的大宗商品，最後的4季度，各行存在結款的時點，而9月第三季度末，成為了大宗商品的拐點。幫助大家回憶下暴跌從9月22日開始。週期上，黃金及大宗還在弱勢反彈格局中，但大宗和黃金相對還處於較高位置，若是熊市來臨那麼下降的遠不止這些。

國內的大宗比外要高許多，相信這也是許多發展中國家都所面臨的，國內的回款週期要進入高峰，國際的大宗還在高位那麼，此時原材料很容易被消化，若是發生暴跌，那麼，回款收不到，資金周轉發生短缺。不排除這是，國內四大行的存款驟然減少的原因。受牽連的還有民間高利貸。各種跡像已經表明大宗的還想繼續下行，那麼金銀在修正一段時期後還將進行下行之旅。

美元方面，在下週一CME上市的人民幣期貨來看，美元繼續上行要做修正，技術上也正好處於4浪的修正段，介於昨日的大陰，今明還將向下76.8-76.4尋求支撐。週期上剛好配合黃金弱勢反彈到位。

黃金價格日內在1665-1669一帶形成短線支撐，上方壓力1694，金價突破後目標區域1720一帶，開始終結反彈之旅。白銀31.6-31.8，上方壓力34.57一帶。 

http://www.cngold.org/

 

金銀也成風險資產

 轉載

無疑﹐黃金和白銀目前的表現並不像是避險天堂。


人們一般認為金銀這兩種貴金屬是時局艱難期間(如通脹、通縮、經濟蕭條和戰爭等)的安全保值手段﹐但最近幾週﹐只要股市下跌﹐金銀價格就隨之走低﹐這說明它們現在已不再是避險天堂了。


不過也有例外﹐如週一﹐金價和銀價隨著美股和其它風險資產的價格一起飆升。


金價至少上漲了2.3%﹐至每盎司1,673美元﹐銀價上漲了4.1%﹐每盎司超過32美元。


這在一定程度上或許與美元的走勢有關。最近一段時間﹐當風險資產價格上漲時﹐美元一般都會下跌﹐週一就是如此﹐歐元兌美元上漲了2.3%﹐至1歐元兌近1.37美元。


但這並不能解釋金銀價格在大多數時間里的走勢。相反﹐跟原油一樣﹐它們的走勢似乎主要與投機者的趨之若鶩有關。


我們再來看看德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)的分析師是怎麼說的：


週一上午﹐金價升至每盎司1,650美元﹐其走勢目前與大宗商品市場和股市保持一致。這種反常行為表明﹐期貨市場上專注金融產品的投機性投資者是金價當前走勢的主要原因。


美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)關於市場定位的每周數據同樣重要。截至10月4日這周﹐投機性投資者持有的黃金淨多頭寸期貨合約減少了1,800份﹐至120,689份﹐這是2009年5月以來的最低水平﹐同時也是過去七週以來黃金淨多頭寸的第六次減少。


較之前的兩週﹐黃金淨多頭寸的縮減程度已大大放緩﹐這可能表示期貨市場的調整已基本結束﹐調整帶來的價格壓力正在緩解。


不過﹐目前黃金淨多頭寸的水平仍遠遠高於2008年秋季期貨市場調整後的水平。因此﹐仍有某些調整的可能﹐特別是考慮到可以認為黃金淨多頭寸在過去幾天的再次增多是對金價上漲的回應。


因此﹐如果美國股市再次承壓﹐我們預計金價可能會再次呈下跌趨勢。

Mark Gongloff

China’s Gold Hunger Likely to Keep Demand High

China overtook South Africa in 2007 as the world’s largest gold producer. At the same time China has increased its gold imports five-fold between October 2009 and October 2010, according to Bloomberg.
As we reported in our April 26 Market Commentary post, Chinese Know Real Value:

The People’s Bank of China—China’s central bank—has for the past year been buying up gold in increasing quantities. And last month it issued a statement urging all Chinese citizens to do likewise.

China’s government recently took steps to deflate a real estate investment bubble that sent apartment rents out of reach for average working people and that has resulted in vast, empty cities of unoccupied apartment and office buildings, as WealthCycles.com reported in February. One of its solutions was to encourage Chinese investors to buy gold. As a result, Chinese demand for gold grew 27% last year, making China the second large consumer of gold in the world, according to a MineWeb.com report this week.


The nation has even unveiled plans to install 2000 gold bullion and coin-dispensing ATMs, according to a MineWeb.com report. Individual withdrawals will be limited to 2.5 kilo or one million yuan ($157), and each machine will hold up to 200 kilograms of gold in varying denominations.

A report by the World Gold Council in May showed that China had edged out India as the largest gold consumer in the first quarter of this year, snapping up 90.9 tonnes of the metal. It also said the demand for jewellery in China soared 21% in the same period.

Albert Cheng, managing director of the Far East at the World Gold Council had reportedly said in March 2010, that the Council had predicted gold demand in China to double by 2020, ``We now believe this doubling may in fact be achieved sooner. China's appetite for gold has increased rapidly over the past few years,'' he said

The resulting demand has created a boom in the Chinese gold mining industry, of which most mining companies are either state-owned or held jointly by state and private owners. But mineworkers for the most part have yet to share in the wealth. Although wages have increased, so has the cost of food and other necessities—fed in part by government and central bank efforts to keep China’s currency low against the dollar and keep interest rates low. And Chinese mines are notoriously unsafe, as reported by Bloomberg in January and again last month by McClatchy Newspapers.
One thing seems clear—China’s need for somewhere to invest its vast excess of currency along with its vast population of potential investors is likely to keep the demand for gold strong well into the next decade.

http://wealthcycles.com/

隨心隨影----無題

Embry - If We Repeat 2008, Stocks Could Fall 40% From Here

I still don’t have a problem with $2,000 gold and $50 silver before the year is out....

With gold holding near the $1,650 area and silver around $32, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management.  When asked about events around the world and how they are impacting gold and silver, Embry responded, “This Dexia Bank failure just showed how vulnerable the European banking system is.  This was one of the banks that stood out in their stress tests and then two months later they have to recapitalize it and nationalize it.  This probably brought home to people that we are talking trillions of euros to recapitalize the banking system over there to keep it functioning.”

John Embry continues:

“That money printing is an extraordinarily bullish event for gold.  If gold weren’t manipulated the way it is, it probably would have been up $100 on that news.  Gold was mercilessly pounded at the end of last week, so gold is still getting kicked around, but it’s building a base and the next move will take it comfortably through $2,000.

Gold needed a correction after the big run it had, but it was the way it was done that was the big tip off.  They (central planners) manufactured a correction for many reasons, one being the European banking situation and the general economic conditions.  Just as importantly, I think the paper guys have to get their short positions down because they know what’s coming.”

When asked about silver, Embry replied, “The shorts had all sorts of incentives to just beat the crap out of it, which they have done.  But I think it (silver) will go up faster than it went down once this thing turns around with conviction, which is coming up fairly soon.  I still don’t have a problem with $2,000 gold and $50 silver before the year is out....

I mean one other aspect about the whole correction, there is discussion about these position limits being imposed on COMEX, particularly in silver.  It is absolutely incumbent upon these guys to get their short positions down, which they have been able to do with the recent weakness.  They simply forced the long speculators out, they have deeper pockets than those guys and basically they took them to the cleaners.”

When asked about the action in stocks, Embry stated, “Monday was classic, I mean they had a really quiet day with Columbus Day in the United States and Canada was closed.  On light volume they rammed the market up over 310 points.  

It was ironic, I was talking to Eric Sprott earlier today and he asked me, ‘Do you know what happened on Columbus Day in 2008 before the market really started to collapse?‘  I said, ‘I have no idea.‘  Eric said, ‘It went up over 1,000 points!.  Then it subsequently dropped 40%.‘  So Monday’s action to me was absolutely window dressing.

I think investors have to be aware of the degree of manipulation in all of the markets here and not make the mistake of being momentum players.  They shouldn’t just try to go with what is working and jump on board because a lot of this is manufactured for the sake of appearances. 

It  troubles me because I see people losing faith in their gold and silver holdings and buying bonds for crying out loud.  Those truly are certificates of confiscation, people just haven’t figured that out yet.”

Exclusive: CFTC has votes to pass position limits

By Christopher Doering

CHICAGO | Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:30pm EDT

(Reuters) - The head of the U.S. futures regulator has the support he needs to pass a long-awaited rule that would curb excessive speculation in commodity markets, a source with knowledge of the agency's rule-making told Reuters on Tuesday.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Tuesday that it would vote on October 18 on a rule limiting the number of contracts any one speculative trader could hold in commodity markets.
The source said the agency was still making changes to the position limits rule and there was a chance changes could upset the balance of support among the five commissioners before next Tuesday.
"I think he does have the votes," the source who closely follows the rule-making process told Reuters.
The CFTC has postponed two scheduled meetings on the position limits plan, with the most recent canceled due to a lack of the three votes needed for its approval.
Curbing excessive speculation is part of the CFTC's efforts to enact sweeping reforms in the Dodd-Frank financial reform overhaul of 2010 that required the agency to regulate the $600 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.
Gary Gensler, the chairman of the CFTC, told reporters on the sidelines of a Futures Industry Association conference in Chicago that position limits were next on the agency's to-do list, but he declined to say whether he had the support needed to pass it.
The CFTC has estimated it will cost the industry more than $100 million to comply with the position limits rule, Scott O'Malia, a Republican commissioner, told reporters after speaking on a panel in Chicago.
Most of the cost for the industry is expected to be soon after the rule goes into effect.
"You have to look beyond the implementation costs and look at the larger costs," Craig Donohue, chief executive of CME Group Inc, told Reuters Insider.
"If we create an environment where people fundamentally can't manage within the constraints of the new position limit requirements ... that will result in much more fundamental costs to the industry in terms of their commercial activities."
O'Malia expressed concern the cost to comply with the rule could be too expensive, especially for bona fide hedgers, or companies that use physical commodities themselves and seek to lower risk by entering into contracts in order to guard against price increases.
"That would be expensive for them and I'm a little bit concerned about the burden that we're placing on commercial hedgers to justify why they shouldn't have limits," said O'Malia. "They have to have the compliance and reporting mechanism to show why they're not," he said.
The commission has never presented a unified front on position limits, one of the most contentious pieces of the financial overhaul for big commodity traders.
In January, Republican Commissioner Jill Sommers opposed releasing the draft rule for public comment, while Democrat Michael Dunn and O'Malia expressed skepticism on how effective the rules would be. Gensler and Bart Chilton have been staunch supporters throughout.
Some CFTC commissioners also are skeptical that the limits would prevent a run-up in prices. The agency's economists have not been able to find a causal link between speculation and price volatility. One study concluded commodity index traders are not causing price volatility and may actually help reduce it.
The Dodd-Frank legislation gave the CFTC the power to set position limits to curb excessive speculation in 28 commodities, including energy, metals and agricultural markets, "as appropriate."
The law required the CFTC to have position limits in place by mid-January.

http://www.reuters.com