Syrian regime selling gold

敘利亞政權出售黃金

Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime is under increasing financial pressure as the economic sanctions imposed by western states and some Arab nations are hurting the country. According to Western diplomatic sources, the Syrian government is desperately selling its foreign currency reserves and the country's gold treasures to the highest bidder. Unsurprisingly, many have attacked these sales, and accuse Assad of throwing away the country’s heritage in an effort to stay in power.

According to Western diplomatic sources, the gold bars stored at the Central Bank of Syria are being sold at a great discount to their true worth, with al-Assad's regime using the proceeds to continue fighting rebels. In October last year the Arab League suspended Syria from participating at the organisation's summit – a move al-Assad branded as a betrayal of fundamental Arab values. Political tensions between the Syrian regime and its Arab neighbours have intensified; in November 2011 the Arab League imposed economic sanctions on Syria as the regime opposed letting 500 League monitors enter the country to evaluate the situation in situ. Up until this date, the death toll among the Syrian opposition had already reached 3,500. Members of the opposition have been publicly defying al-Assad on the streets of Damascus and other large Syrian cities.

The economic sanctions are mainly aimed at the Syrian central bank's activities and the important oil export sector. This year the European Union joined the Arab League by imposing its own sanctions on important Syrian politicians – including al-Assad. These measures included freezing politicians' foreign bank accounts and a weapons embargo. So far, the EU sanctions do not include oil. It seems doubtful though that the EU's weapons embargo against Syria will have much effect, given that the Russians have stated that they will continue to support the regime.

However, the economic sanctions signed by a total of 60 nations have so far managed to practically halve the foreign currency reserves held by the Central Bank of Syria. At the end of February the European Union tightened its sanctions, and the 27-country block completely excluded the Central Bank of Syria from gold and other precious metals trading. Now that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have followed this example, the Syrian regime is finding it increasingly difficult to empty its gold vaults. Though many are starting to have second thought about entering into financial deals with Syria, it remains to be seen whether these measures really can force al-Assad from power.

http://www.goldmoney.com

黃金三年升軌仍受考驗

石林

全球經濟基本狀況未有出現明顯的變化和進展，影響到金銀市場的牛熊雙方誰也不能取得顯著的上風，金價上周五在1658元（美元．下同）至1631元之間較窄幅範圍內上落波動，銀價更只在32.02元至31.19元間徘徊。然而，周內金銀均雖曾下試近數周的偏低位，但金價最終沒有跌破前周的1613元最低點，銀價也沒有跌穿前周最低點31.0元，故可說是一個偏淡而短期待變的局面。

趁此機會不妨談談有關金銀兩市之前景。到目前為止，繼續看好金銀後市仍是分析界的主流觀點，但很明顯早前對金價升至2000元的預測熱潮正在消退。去年秋冬不少人估計到該年年底金價會升抵上述大關，後又改為到今年首季方達致該水平，但到最近已不再聽到有類似的預測了。對銀價預測的變化更大，去年初段聽到不少銀價升抵100元的估計，後經該年5月初大挫的一役，變成到今年底若能重見50元也只是一個期望而已。相反去年銀市災劫快一周年了，或會令人勾起一些不愉快的回憶。

收市價成下降通道

先談談金市的較大圖象，自去年金價漲至1920元歷史新高峰後至今，金市出現高點一個比一個為低、而低點亦一個比一個為低的局面，這表示金市起碼在中期是從高峰走下坡。在對數圖表上，自2008年10月以來的上升軌（這也是當今牛市第三條上升軌）在去年12月告失守，其後出現向該升軌回抽進而再跌的情景。即使在線性圖上，該相應的三年多來上升軌在前兩周備受考驗。到上周仍處於受考驗的狀態，除非日後我們看到金價大幅向上拋離該上升軌，否則該軌最終有被跌破的危險。

金市從高峰走下坡的情景，我們可以從收市價圖更清晰地看到。自去年8月22日開始至今，在該圖出現一個下降通道，除非黃金收市價重返1740元並升破1780元水平，市勢方可扭轉這個中期反覆向下的劣局。就中短期而言，1680元是金收市價的回升阻力水平，而1620元是支持水平，若此水平失守，下一個關鍵支持水平恐要低至1549元水平了。

白銀收市價亦呈現一個下降通道，並早在去年4月28日已開始形成。目前該通道的頂線處於35元水平，並須升越37元才可破壞這個通道。短線而言，31元是銀收市價一個支持水平，而34.3元是回升阻力。

另一下降通道形成

美國復蘇過程十分緩慢，歐洲主權債務危機不時惡化會產生一股收縮力量，中國經濟放緩甚至有硬着陸的危險，三種因素導致金銀價格近年來從高峰向下走軟。但是市場不時出現對有關當局採取新的刺激政策的期望，金銀價亦常常從低位反彈。截至目前為止，比較明顯撤離金銀市場只是投機資金，例如到上周末段，期金市場的未平倉合約量進一步低於40萬張水平。但是投資資金仍留在金市，至本月上旬，五隻主要黃金ETFs的持金量只從歷史高峰的1647.5噸減少約13噸而已。故近半年來金價只是反覆偏軟，但並非發生崩潰。

最近金市又形成另一較小型的下降通道，但由於金礦股出現超賣及美元走弱，故估計短期金價暫不致低於1628元，且不會再低試至1612元，然而回升阻力會出現在1663元至1670元的地帶，金價要升越1680元才會破壞此通道。銀市短期是處於窄幅平穩狀態，看來短期可避免跌破31元及進一步下試29.7元的危機，但回升阻力分別會在32.5元和33.3元出現，而34.5元是最大的阻力。

美元走軟會是短期金銀價格的一項支持因素，但留意兩者的反向關係最近變得鬆脫。