商業銀行還能酣睡到幾時？

張庭賓

中國投資者一直呼喚的周五黃金夜盤依然難產，這一次是因為影響了商業銀行安眠？

    每當週五下午3:30分，上海黃金交易所和上海期貨交易所停盤過週末後，至次日凌晨，是中國國內黃金投資者的噩夢時刻，因為這是歐美盤最活躍的交易時段，歐美各國政府和央行常常在此時發布重大政策和信息，市場做多或做空激情常常在此刻被點燃，然而，此時中國投資者已經被封死在交易所內無法動彈，用一位資深交易員的話就是：被按在哪裡被人（國外投資者）強姦，卻根本無法還手。

    就此中國投資者輸在交易起跑線上的悲劇，今年6月4日，筆者在本專欄撰文《中國黃金市場再曝重大缺陷》強調：如果中國黃金市場這一根本製度缺陷不糾正。中國黃金市場在客觀上是一種向國際投資者利益輸送的機制。

    該文在金融業界產生了較大的反響。 7月份的一次會議上，某交易所的一位領導回應說：對於週五夜盤交易，我們已基本準備好了，但交易和結算要通過銀行，一些銀行不積極。在會後私下交流的時候，他給筆者透露了一個信息：主管部門的一位領導，在你這篇文章上已經做了批示，要求盡快開出週五夜盤。所以，現在不存在我們拖延週五夜盤的問題。

    那麼，一些銀行為什麼對周五夜盤不積極呢？原因很簡單，週五要開夜盤，銀行的結算部門和貴金屬部（或金融市場部）就要有人值夜班，就不能酣然享受週末的睡眠了。

    這真是非常有中國銀行業特色的思維方式了。要知道，除中國以外，全球主要金融市場國家中，外彙和黃金交易都是自北京時間週一早上6:00到週六凌晨近4點，幾乎是5*24小時的連續交易市場。各國不同的交易所雖然開盤時間有先後，但交易商和商業銀行均是提供24小時的交易和結算服務的。

    外匯黃金市場之所以必須提供24小時的交易服務，根本原因在於確定全球交易的最基準價格：一是各國紙幣間的交易價格；二是紙​​幣的一般等價物——美元和商品的一般等價物——黃金的交易價格。全球所有其它的商品和金融交易全部都建立在這兩個價格的基礎上的，可以說，沒有提供5*24小時的外匯黃金市場，就是重大殘缺的市場。

    換言之，商業銀行和金融業要為客戶提供公平的交易起跑線，必須先行提供24小時的外彙和黃金交易和結算服務，人們並不奢望國內商業銀行一步到位，但是至少在被投資者強烈呼喚的周五夜盤應提供服務。

    是提供週五夜盤的服務，還是確保週末酣然入睡？這對中國的商業銀行是一個嚴肅的問題，就如同哈姆雷特的“生存”還是“毀滅”一樣。但目前顯然他們還沒有做好準備，由一個高高在上的貸款發放者、一個中間業務的聯合壟斷者向一個真正的金融投資服務者角色的轉換。

    中國商業銀行提供的黃金交易更致命的是其交易佣金之高，令人咋舌。現在上海黃金交易所給商業銀行的交易佣金是萬分之3，而商業銀行給個人客戶的普遍在萬分之10以上，甚至高達萬分之18，而且是雙向收費！交易一手就要高達400-600元，占到一手保證金的近1%！而國外主流交易都是24小時連續的，主流佣金為點差0.1-0.2美元，即0.1—0.2/1619（黃金8月10日收盤價），即萬分之0.616至1.232，是中國商業銀行的十分乃至幾十分之一。這才是為什麼地下炒金雖無法律保障，卻屢禁不止的根本原因。

    如此高的交易佣金，再加上週五夜盤不交易，如害怕被“強暴”平倉出局，除非是天才（而且做長期趨勢投資，盡可能降低交易頻率），否則個人投資者想在T +D上賺錢，那比登天還難。這也是為什麼曾經一度非常火紅的商業銀行T+D業務近來清淡不少的主因——水在兩個碗之間來回倒，每倒一次就少了近1%，能賺錢哪才是怪了！

    這就是中國很多商業銀行的現狀，它們更擅長的是從客戶哪里分一杯羹，而不是幫助客戶賺錢後來分享財富。在這種既有商業模式中，一種是全世界最高的存貸款差——利差，在6月7日的首次非對稱降息之前，存貸款利差為3.06%；第二種是名目繁多五花八門的中間業務收費，比如某大銀行，本行的跨地ATM機取款都要被收費0.25%。

    正是這種以壟斷優勢，切分客戶既得利益蛋糕的商業模式，使得2011年銀行業的暴利高達1.04萬億元，令某銀行行長自己對此暴利都感到不好意思。銀行業被媒體評價為“一條慵懶的藍鯨”，作為地球上生存過的體型最大的動物（中國銀行業的利潤佔全球銀行業總利潤的20%以上），靠吃食物鏈底層的中小工商企業磷蝦（銀行利潤70%以上來源於利差）維持自身一百多噸的身體（2011年，中國銀行業金融機構的總資產達到113.28萬億元）。與此同時，中國工商業生存更加困難，2011年10月溫州企業出現大規模破產潮，老闆紛紛跑路，引起總理的高度重視。

    如此暴利的商業銀行可以永遠安枕無憂嗎？非也！ 6月7日和7月5日的兩次央行非對稱降息，標誌著銀行業美夢已快做到頭了。

    兩次降息後，銀行業一年期存款利率為3%，可以上浮至1.1倍；貸款利率6.0%，可以下浮到0.7倍，即銀行理論上的最小利差已由原來的3.06%一下子降到0.9%。

    銀行業利率市場化從來都是殘酷的洗牌。香港1995年利率市場化後，至2011年，銀行總數由185家減少到145家；美國自1980年開始存款利率市場化，6年中導致了1000多家，資產總值超過5000億美元的存貸機構倒閉，政府和國民損失1500億美元。商業銀行總數由1980年的約1​​.44萬家減少到1998年的8697家。

    各國利率市場化後的經驗都表明，在利差收入銳減之後，銀行業必須從切分客戶原有蛋糕模式，向為客戶創造更多財富並分享的模式轉變。即開拓自營業務和私人理財業務，而這兩個業務的本質都是要從國際競爭對手中爭得更多的蛋糕，即要在國際金融市場上能贏過對手。

    要想完成這個幾乎不可能完成的挑戰，銀行業必須完成幾個轉變：1，在經營思路上要從錢櫃老爺變成真心誠意的金融服務者；2，必須建立國際一流，甚至領先的國際金融市場研究預測能力。若在短期內不可能實現，必須要有開放虛心的心態，借助智庫外腦；3，變從客戶口袋裡拿（難聽點是搶）錢，為替客戶賺錢。為了讓客戶睡的安穩，自己必然寢食難安。

    在這個中國商業銀行是會生存還是毀滅的真正大挑戰面前，商業銀行少數人能不能為黃金T+D客戶犧牲大半晚睡眠，就成了第一道最簡單的測試題，如果商業銀行連這點改變都不願做出，未來三年內，中國商業銀行必將遭遇全面危機，並將出現大規模的失業情況。

    中國的銀行家們，你們還能睡的安然嗎？ （作者為中華元國際金融智庫創辦人，聯繫郵箱ztb6006@sina.com）

The Portuguese Run Out Of Gold To Sell

"Business has gone from great to terrible in a matter of months. The sad truth is that most of my clients have already sold all of their gold rings," is anecdotal evidence of a growing trend that Bloomberg reports in Portugal. Historically the home of Europe's biggest relative gold reserves, cash-for-gold shops rose 29% in 2011 (average 2 store openings per day) - but now some are closing. Portugal’s gold exports increased by more than five times to 519.4 million euros last year from 102.1 million euros in 2009, according to data published on the Lisbon-based National Statistics Institute’s website.
As a country, Portugal traditionally has guarded that gold. The central bank holds more gold relative to the size of the country’s economy than any euro country, mostly accumulated during former dictator Antonio de Oliveira Salazar’s 36 years in power, based on data compiled by the World Gold Council. The law prevents proceeds from selling any gold reserves from going toward the government’s budget.
With the Portuguese unemployment rate at a euro-era record of 15 percent in the second quarter, citizens are wondering who will help bail them out now that their job and gold are gone: "We have no more gold to save us from being kicked out this month," encapsulates a growing trend in debt crisis-stricken Europe as household gold supplies dry up after record prices and a deepening recession prompts a proliferation of places to exchange the metal for money.

中國黃金擬購全球最大金商股份

鉅亨網

全球最大黃金生產商巴里克黃金公司昨天表示，正在就出售非洲公司部分或全部股權與中國黃金集團商談。投資者預計中國黃金集團將溢價收購，以滿足中國對黃金的大量需求，巴里克非洲黃金公司股價應聲大漲9%。

自從去年收購非洲銅礦商Equinox Minerals之后，加拿大礦業巨頭巴里克黃金公司就陷入了麻煩，部分投資者不斷指責這一收購是投資失誤，加上黃金開采成本飆升、利潤下降，都讓巴里克疲於應付。過去一年，巴里克股價下跌30%，為2008年末以來最低。

巴里克黃金公司表示，出售非洲公司業務是公司優化資產結構，提高投資回報率行動計劃的一部分，以應對利潤下降和生產成本上升，調整并幫助 公司實現股東利益最大化的目標。據７月中旬公司公布的第二季度財報顯示，由於黃金產量和銷量下滑，以及公司業務擴張過速導致部分項目成本過高，巴里克黃金 公司今年第二季度凈利潤下滑35%，收入從去年同期的34億美元降至33億美元。

In A Paper System, All Assets Are Backed by the Treasury Bond

Original Source

Submitted and © by Keith Weiner, president of the Gold Standard Institute
In A Paper System, All Assets Are Backed by the Treasury Bond
In a gold-based monetary system, every asset is ultimately backed by gold.  This does not mean that every debtor (including banks) keeps the full amount of its liability in gold coin just lying around.  Why would one bother to borrow if one did not need the money?
It means that every asset generates a gold income and every asset could be liquidated for gold, if necessary.  If a debtor declares bankruptcy, the creditor may take losses.  But he can rely on the gold income stream for each asset or if need be he can sell the asset for gold.

In a gold-based monetary system, money is gold and gold is money.  Money cannot disappear; it does not go “poof”.  Bad credit can be defaulted and must be written off.  But money merely changes hands.

In a gold system, the promise of the gold coin is the only reason why anyone extends credit in the first place.  Since 1913, there was a step-by-step evolution to our present irredeemable paper system.  Now creditors are forced to accept the government’s scrip as payment in full.  It continues to work (for the moment) partly because of inertia, but mostly because there is (still) good credit behind the dollar.

Let’s look deeper at what backs the money in the present irredeemable paper system.  Start by considering this brief anecdote.  Joe buys some equipment from John, to be paid Net 30.  We say that Joe owes John $10,000.  Next month, Joe comes back and gives the money to John.  Joe is out of debt, but has the debt been extinguished?

No.  The debt has been transferred.  Now the Federal Reserve owes John the money!  Surprised?  Don’t be.
The dollar is the liability of the Fed.
The Fed, like every bank, must balance liabilities and assets.  There is even a technical term for when they have liabilities without matching assets.  “Bankrupt.”  How does the Fed itself balance its liabilities?

The Treasury bond is the asset of the Fed.
Getting back to John, he deposits the money in the bank.  The result is that the bank owes John the money, and the Fed owes the bank the money.  The banks will typically buy Treasury bonds because they are “safe” and they pay a yield.  In this case, the Treasury owes the bank the money.

Notice that whether the bank holds Treasury bonds directly, or whether it holds dollars that are the liability of the Fed backed by Treasury bonds as the asset, the Treasury bond ultimately backs the bank.  And thus the Treasury bond ultimately back’s John’s asset, which is the deposit account.

The same principle holds true for other assets.  A stock (equity) is valued based on the expected flow of dollars it will generate in the future.  In addition, every company is obliged to hold dollars in a bank to cover payroll, pay suppliers, etc.  Few companies could survive one minute past the default of their banks on these deposit accounts.

If this all seems perverse, that is because it is!  The dollar is backed by the Treasury bond, and the Treasury bond is paid in dollars.  It is circular, self-referential, and it is a ponzi scheme.

Under gold, the metal itself is the risk-free asset.   This is not a mere definition, but an observation about reality.  Gold simply is.  It is not a promise and therefore cannot default.  But under paper, the Treasury bond is defined as the risk-free asset.  Obviously, one cannot eliminate risk by defining it out of existence.
It is important to emphasize that if a party’s asset goes bad—especially with the leverage employed today—it will be forced to default on its liability.  By the design of the system, its financial assets are someone else’s liabilities (and its other assets depend on the liabilities of the Treasury).  The ultimate “someone else” is the Treasury in all cases.  When they default, all financial assets will be wiped out.  This means all debtors will default.  This means all creditors will take total losses.  Creditors include not only corporate employers, but savers, pensioners, annuitants, etc.
The next time someone blurts out that the dollar works just as well as gold (or better than gold!), an explanation of this should shut him up.

倫敦金銀市場協會將會失去黃金定價權力

 Original Source

 以下是一位熟悉倫敦黃金交收市場（ LBMA）人士向 King World News 透露的消息。他認為官方長久操縱黃金價格的行動很快會被逼結束。當操縱行動結束時，金價會急速向上，令很多人措手不及。已經有很多跡象顯示這個趨勢，尤其是傳媒已經開始公開討論各大金商銀行，與其客戶所寄託的實金是否還存在的問題。這個問題非常敏感，因為涉及基本的誠信問題。客戶存放在這些銀行的黃金數量很大。一旦他們憂慮自己的黃金是否還存在，他們會大舉向銀行提取，但越來越多人相信銀行是沒有這些金的，所以可以相信醜聞爆發的日子一日一日的逼近。

照常理，這個問題不應該受到傳媒公開討論的，而事實上竟然發生了，就足以證明事情之嚴重程度。有可能各大金商銀行已經接受事實，知道問題一定要出現了，所以預先發出消息，方便他們日後可以洗脫責任。到時他們可以理直氣壯地說﹕“我們早已經說了這個事實，沒有欺騙任何人，也沒有隱瞞事實，早已經讓客戶知道這個事實﹗”此舉會使他們避免受到法律追究。

很多人都不知道，當我們把錢存放入銀行，這筆錢已經不屬於我們的了。各存戶與銀行簽署的協議書上是有明文說明這條規例的。當然很少有人真正細讀和有能力明白這些細節的。銀行有權把存戶的錢統統借出去。不單只如此，銀行向外發出的貸款可以遠遠超過存款的。這就是貸款的槓桿效應。你放一百元入銀行，銀行不單只因此可以借出一百元，而是一百元的好多倍。

當然，如果存放在銀行的都是銀紙，問題則不大，因為即使大家一起去提款，到最後政府都可以發行足夠的鈔票來滿足大家。但如果客戶到銀行提取的是他們存放了的黃金，這就完全是另一個問題了。天下間沒有人可以從空氣中變出黃金來。到時唯一解決的方法就是以銀紙替代實金。如果客戶收了銀紙，再想在公開市場購回實金的話，金價必定被追高，客戶變相蒙受重大損失。

這位消息人士更透露中國的黃金進口是遠超過公佈的數字。官方公佈中國在今年的首五個月入口了315 噸黃金。但真正的數量是佈道數字的幾倍。中國是不斷購入黃金，每天如是。買家不只有中國，亦有俄國和中東與印度各國。中國的黃金入口是不會停止的，因為要買足夠黃金以便將來支持人民幣國際化，甚至成為取代美元的國際儲備地位。

所以，說什麼黃金會受到像 2008/2009一樣的拋售的人士，他們根本不明白情況與當年已經完全改變了。當時，銀行的黃金儲備只能以半數當作資金，因為黃金被視為高風險資產（High Risk Asset）。但今年已經有跡象銀行的黃金儲備會被視為一級資產（Tier-1 asset），即以百份百計算。所以如果發生任何像 2008/2009年的銀行危機，銀行都不會被逼沽售黃金，因為黃金已經可以作現金辦，無需要轉換現金。

Big Changes Ahead: Gold Just Became Money Again

Original Source

By Doug Hornig, Casey Research

On June 18, the Federal Reserve and FDIC circulated a letter to banks that proposes to harmonize US regulatory capital rules with Basel III.

BASEL III is an accord that tells a bank how much capital it must hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability.

It's a global standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and market liquidity risk.

Here's the important bit:

At the top of the proposed changes is the new list of "zero-percent risk weighted items," which now includes "gold bullion," right after "cash."

That's the part to take notice of.

If the proposals are approved by regulators – and that seems likely since adoption of Basel III will be– then this is a momentous change for the gold market.

Now banks will be allowed to hold bullion in their vaults and count it among their Tier 1 assets – in other words, the least risky assets.

That by itself would be bullish for the gold price, as banks that recognize gold's unique characteristics seek to stockpile more of it.

But that's not the whole story…

Gold Regains Money Status

For one thing, Basel III also stipulates that a bank's Tier 1 holdings must rise from 4% of assets to 6%.

That means that banks may not only replace a portion of their existing paper with bullion, but may use it to meet some of the extra 2% as well.

In addition, this vote of confidence from the highest monetary authorities gives further impetus to the remonetization of gold.

In essence, what's happening is that from now on gold will be considered "money" in virtually the same way as cash or bonds.

And banks will be given the choice between holding more of their core assets in history's most reliable store of value vs. paper backed by nothing more than the promises of increasingly wasteful governments.

Finally, there is the impact on individual and institutional investors.

Jeff Clark, in Casey Research's BIG GOLD newsletter, has been guiding gold investors for years. In his view, this news looks set to really shake up the gold market, because as regulators and banks increasingly view gold as having safety on a par with the various paper alternatives, it is logical that they will also see the need to beef up their own holdings.

There are a number of positives for gold going forward.

Though it remains speculation on our part, we believe that the net result of Basel III and associated adjustments to US regulations will be an increased recognition of gold's safe-haven status across all markets.

And that translates into higher global demand for the metal next year, and a concomitant increase in its price.

If you haven't done so already, it's time to get informed on gold and begin adding it to your portfolio.

Silver Hoarding: Investor Holdings Spike to Record

Orignal Source

Posted by Brittany Stepniak - Thursday, August 16th, 2012

Analysts and investors are becoming increasingly bullish on silver as the summer winds down. As central banks around the globe are expected to bolster growth via new QE and related monetary policies, a silver rally appears to be inevitable.

For the past three months, silver held in exchange-traded products has consistently climbed its way up to a valuation of $16.2 billion, according to Bloomberg's data.

While hedge funds remain the least bullish in nearly four years, one has to ask if this is merely an attempt to control silver prices in a time when nearly everyone else is assuming that the allure of precious metals will only increase in the months and years to come...

If the Federal Reserve does follow through with further quantitative easing, all we have to do is rewind back to the years 2008-2011 and learn from the recent history to know what will happen to silver prices.

From December 2008 to June 2011, precious metals prices tripled on behalf of two solid rounds of quantitative easing.

Imagine what a third dose of easing will do to consumer mentality and the price of silver and gold. It's an unprecedented event for sure, but the prices have nowhere to go but up – and they're expected to do so rather sharply.

From Bloomberg:

While the metal is trading 44 percent below the 31-year high of $49.845 set in April 2011, it averaged $30.37 since the start of January, on track for the second-highest annual level after last year’s $35.27.

And hedge funds are likely to get more bullish – more than doubling their net-long position or betting on higher prices, to 9,323 futures and options in the two weeks to Aug. 7 – and as economic pessimism abounds silver demand continues to increase.

Historically, silver has been a volatile metal, but investors shouldn't be swayed by the price swings too terribly. Generally speaking, silver investor confidence is reaching all-time-highs.

“People like me who have tremendous confidence in silver and are invested in the market see it rising once the easing begins,” said Jeffrey Sica, the Morristown, New Jersey-based president of SICA Wealth Management, who helps oversee about $1 billion of assets. “I expect an acceleration in the fear trade. Most of the hedge funds who sold will be back once the market gathers momentum.”

Silver guru, David Morgan, speculates on where silver will go from here in its undervalued state... find out when the next major upswing is coming by watching the Kitco video below: