2016年4月23日星期六

大陸挑戰美元霸權 全面擁抱黃金



陸挑戰美元霸權 全面擁抱黃金
3月8日,山西太原某金店員工清點黃金飾品。(中新社) 

陸挑戰美元霸權 全面擁抱黃金
4月15日,山西太原某銀行工作人員清點美元。(中新社) 
為挑戰美元霸權並提升自己在全球金融體系中的實力,大陸正在實行一個強而有力的黃金戰略。大陸政府正在為當前全球貨幣體系的衰落做準備,除刺激私人儲藏黃金熱情外,政府為保證金融穩定支持人民幣國際化,也正不斷增持黃金儲備。
鳳凰網報導,BullionStar.com專門研究中國黃金市場的分析師Koos Jansen撰文稱,全球貨幣秩序正面臨轉折,2008年金融危機帶來的衝擊,進一步證明美元作為國際儲備貨幣這種狀態內在的不穩定性,從而令中國成為「去美元化」的最堅定支持者。
傳人行年購500公噸
為了從美元霸權解脫及引領未來的國際貨幣體系,大陸的目標是實現人民幣國際化。黃金被看作達成這一目標的關鍵。黃金是支撐人民幣的絕對貨幣資產。
該報導指出,在私人黃金市場得到發展情況下,大陸人行正在祕密的購入黃金,並建立了上海國際黃金交易中心,為人民幣的國際化做準備。
2015年7月大陸人行將官方黃金儲備資料從604公噸修改為1658公噸。這可能還不是大陸持有黃金的真實數字。外媒估計,大陸人行持有近4千公噸黃金儲備,超過官方公布數字的兩倍。更有消息表示,大陸人行自2009年以來每年購入約500公噸的黃金。
最近建立的上海國際黃金交易中心揭露更多的黃金戰略。上海國際黃金交易中心為全球客戶提供以人民幣結算的黃金交易,此舉是為了推動人民幣的國際化。
發展國內黃金市場
還有誰會如此迅速地發展大陸黃金市場,增加黃金儲備及建立一個組織推動歐洲和亞洲地區商業活動通過本國的黃金交易所進行交易。在當前國際貨幣體系分崩離析的情況下,大陸自己的黃金戰略充滿重要意義。
該報導認為,如果這一切是真的,大陸人行目前持有4千公噸的黃金儲備僅僅是下一個階段的開始。

2016年4月21日星期四

大莊家的火藥庫?解密匯豐銀行的地下藏金庫


匯豐銀行的黃金倉庫一直以來都是媒體關注的焦點,主要有以下幾個原因:首先,匯豐銀行的黃金倉庫儲藏了大量黃金交易基金的標的黃金,主要包括投資者所熟知的SPDR黃金基金等;其次,匯豐銀行的黃金儲備庫是除了英國央行和摩根大通之外,世界第三大黃金儲備倉庫;第三個原因是匯豐銀行位於英國的黃金倉庫一直是非公開的,這引發人們濃厚的興趣;最後就是匯豐銀行常常會自己爆出一些有關黃金倉庫的影像資料,最被人所熟知的是匯豐銀行讓CNBC的攝影師Bob Pisani進入黃金倉庫內部拍攝並製作了視頻。然而匯豐銀行的保密工作真是做的太好了,到目前為止都沒人知道他們的倉庫到底在哪兒,甚至連是否存在都令人懷疑。不過俗話說,世上無難事只怕有心人。有人通過對一些現有資料的研究大致推測出了匯豐銀行的秘密黃金倉庫所在地。首先在2007年下半年,在STREETTracks黃金交易基金的網站上找到了,四張包含“匯豐銀行倫敦黃金新倉庫”字樣的照片,這些照片的標題都是“託管於匯豐銀行英國黃金倉庫”。






2008年1月11日,MarketWatch網站和SPDR黃金交易基金向SEC提交的一份文件都提到匯豐銀行的一個新的黃金倉庫。文件顯示“StreetTracks黃金交易基金將按目前價格值180億美元的黃金存放在了一個更大的倉庫裡。”“世界黃金協會的發言人George Milling-Stanley也表示,由於StreetTracks的黃金儲備增長快於預期,六個月前他們的經理不得不將這些黃金轉移到一個更寬敞的地方。”



(圖左二為世界黃金協會的發言人Milling-Stanley)


這些記錄證明了匯豐銀行在英國的黃金倉庫確實是真實存在的。

那麼現在的問題就是金庫在哪裡?根據匯豐銀行早期在英國的辦公地點可以推測就位於泰晤士交易所所在地,也就是皇后街第十廣場的下面,緊挨著南華克橋北面。南華克橋坐落在泰晤士河上連接河北岸的倫敦金融區和河南岸的薩瑟克區,是薩瑟克的第一座橋,也叫皇后街橋,建於1819年。該位置也可以從1908年匯豐銀行的的公司檔案中得到印證。

現在就隨小編進入黃金倉庫內部看一看。


(皇后街的路面)


(地下黃金倉庫的入口)


(通往金庫的過道)


(擺放整齊的金塊)



(金庫示意圖)


http://www.goldtoutiao.com 

2016年4月20日星期三

「惡魔金屬」飆漲4% 一腳跨入牛市

因行情常呈極端波動而被投資人封為「惡魔金屬」的白銀,正悄悄步向多頭牛市!
紐約商品交易所白銀期貨今盤中大漲3.67%至每盎司16.85美元,白銀現貨同步勁揚4%至每盎司16.8735美元,不僅竄上10個月新高,且較去年12月波段低點累計反彈逾20%,代表若以此水準收盤將符合跨入牛市的標準。
今年來白銀價格累計上漲22%,在追蹤22種大宗商品行情的彭博商品指數中表現高居榜首,且上月相關ETF(指數股票型基金)持有量大增5.3%至逼近歷史高點,顯示投資人對「惡魔金屬」的熱情節節攀升。
瑞士貴金屬交易商MKS交易與實體銷售部主管Afshin Nabavi指出,目前紐約白銀交易量幾乎是平日同時段平均的3倍,自動空頭回補產生的大筆買單放大了行情波動。
倫敦商品經紀業者Marex Spectron貴金屬部門主管David Govett預期,只要股市走勢持穩或繼續上行,工業用途比黃金更廣的白銀,行情表現就可望持續領先黃金。
從黃金、白銀、鉑金到鈀金,今日貴金屬價格同步飆高。紐約黃金期貨盤中一度上揚1.05%至每盎司1248美元,黃金現貨也漲1.22%至每盎司1247.54美元。
儘管最近金價漲勢似乎有點後繼無力,但凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)經濟學家Simona Gambarini仍看多後市,預期年底黃金價格上看每盎司1350美元,理由是即使美國聯準會(Fed)再次升息,實質利率仍將保持低落,料有助金價漲勢堅挺。(劉利貞/綜合外電報導)

2016年4月19日星期二

黃金可能以頭肩頂回落


投機智慧 - 許沂光 2016年4月19日  


 


【晴報專欄】2016年3月24日我發表《黃金蓄勢待跌》http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_ae7cc7940102w2om.html。當時我指出:「金商沽出,散戶蜂擁入市揸金,黃金蓄勢待跌。」 

現貨黃金2016年4月13日下跌14美元

,收報1,241美元;2016年4月14日上午進一步下跌至1,229美元。日綫圖呈現「黃昏之星」及「頭肩頂」的見頂形態,見附圖一。倘若跌破頸綫,下跌目標為1,134美元。 

2016年4月13日,白銀創近期新高,但黃金沒有同步創新高,見附圖二。黃金白銀背馳,利淡。 

總結:黃金可能以「頭肩頂」姿態調整,倘若跌破頸綫,下跌目標1,134美元。 

免責聲明:以上分析,只供參考,投資買賣,必須審慎。 


來源 source: http://www.skypost.hk

2016年4月18日星期一

沙特恫言拋售千億美債券 防美通過沙特涉恐法案

中新網4月17日電 據外媒17日報道,沙烏地阿拉伯向奧巴馬政府發出警告,如果美國國會通過新法案,以致沙特必須為“九一一恐怖襲擊”承擔責任,沙特將拋售數千億美元的美國債券和資產,以免這些資產遭美國法院凍結。

  此前有報道指沙特資助基地組織,但沙特官員矢口否認。沙特外長朱拜爾上月訪問華盛頓時告訴美國官員,美國國會若通過這項新法案,沙特將拋售總值7500億美元的美國債券和資產。

當地時間9月11日,美國總統奧巴馬和第一夫人米歇爾在白宮的草坪上默哀片刻,紀念“911”恐怖襲擊14週年。
當地時間2015年9月11日,美國總統奧巴馬和第一夫人米歇爾在白宮的草坪上默哀片刻,紀念“911”恐怖襲擊14週年。
 
  沙特發出的警告凸顯了兩國緊張關係日益升溫。但一些經濟師質疑沙特能達到目的,並認為拋售美國債券最終將對沙特經濟造成嚴重衝擊。

  “九一一”事件死難者家屬曾起訴沙特政府,指其資助恐怖組織,但一直不成功。這是因為美國1976年的法律賦予外國一些司法豁免權,可免於在美國法庭受審。日前,就有參議員提出新法案,取消那些涉及在美國本土搞恐怖主義活動的國家的司法豁免權。

  美國官員和國會兩黨議員透露,奧巴馬政府曾向國會進行遊說,力圖阻止這項法案獲得通過。

  奧巴馬政府稱,新法案一旦獲得通過,將導致美國公民在海外承擔更大的法律風險。但政府的立場引起一些議員,以及九一一罹難者家屬的不滿。他們認為奧巴馬政府一直“袒護沙特王國”,阻撓有關當局對沙特官員是否有份參與策劃九一一事件展開調查。

  罹難者家屬代表克林伯格說:“我們的政府竟然背著自己的公民去袒護沙烏地阿拉伯,這令人感到吃驚。”
資料圖:美國總統奧巴馬。 中新社記者 廖攀 攝
資料圖:美國總統奧巴馬。 中新社記者 廖攀 攝
 
  奧巴馬週三將到沙特首都利雅得訪問,屆時,他將與沙特國王薩勒曼及其他沙特官員會晤。目前還不清楚這項新法案引發的外交糾紛是否會被列入會談議程。
  沙特駐美國大使館的發言人未對有關報道置評。

  據知,沙特官員矢口否認參與策劃九一一襲擊,而九一一事件調查委員會也“沒有證據證明沙特政府或其資深官員曾資助卡伊達組織”。

  然而,美國國會調查委員會在2002年發表的一份報告指出,“有證據顯示,在美國居住的一些沙特官員參與策劃了九一一襲擊陰謀。”

  2001年9月11日美國發生震驚全球的連串自殺式恐怖襲擊,恐怖分子當天早晨劫持了民航客機,將兩架飛機分別衝撞世貿中心雙塔,造成重大人命傷亡。

金銀市牛熊懸崖決鬥

石林:
上周金銀兩市出現罕見市況,在金價再次反彈遇阻而回的同時,銀市卻大舉發難,銀價急升到去年10月的最高水平。以收市價而論,金市收報1234.1元(美元.下同),較前周微跌0.34%;但銀市收報16.225元,較前周大漲5.63%。
倉位結構更令人震驚,期金市場牛熊雙方的淨倉量皆增至2013年以來的極端水平;期銀市場雙方的淨倉量亦再次接近2008年以來的極端水平,其中對沖基金經理在看漲銀價所下的賭注是歷來最大。此可謂牛熊雙方真的各走極端,已走到懸崖上決鬥。
金銀市分析者意見亦頗為分歧,看好者認為銀市是成功突破,將會帶動金市再度上升;看淡者認為,今年以來白銀只是「濕水爆竹」,並無凝聚力可言。目前銀價已到達圖表一個上升信道頂部,稍後將因美元反彈,以及股市與金價回跌而明顯下挫。
宜關注美債價走向
世人對美國加息預期改變以及情緒起伏,令金融市場起落不定。雖然聯邦儲備局的鴿派意見佔上風,但美國經濟仍在緩慢復甦,就業情況持續改善;因此美國加息步伐儘管放緩,惟看不到要倒過頭來再施行零利率甚至是負利率的必要性。此情況令世人對利率動向的評估陷入一個混亂狀態。
涉及到金銀兩市,牛熊兩派各持己見,且都有理據,暫尚未見任何一方取得壓倒性優勢,於是產生目前相當敏感的局面。
債券市場很大程度及量化地反映出世人對美國利率走向的估量。以美10年期債券價格圖表為例,今年2月份形成一個「頭肩頂」形態,結果在3月份真的往下跌。然而到該月中,價格尚未跌到理論量度的目標水平就開始止跌,其後更形成一個「頭肩底」,與早前的「頭肩頂」相抗衡。繼而在4月份回升,最後升抵前「頭肩頂」頸線的伸延水平,至此才再回順。惟現呈膠著狀態,是續升抑或是再跌,取向未明。該圖表形象化地顯示出,債券市場對美國利率前景看法的兩股力量勢均力敵,誰也壓不倒誰。
敝欄對此詳加描述其中一個重要原因,是因為近期金價上落再度與10年債價有著頗密切的同向且同步關係,注視債價的進一步發展,對金價取向頗有啟示作用。
美元匯價相當程度受到美國債券價格(或倒過來的孳息率)的影響。上周美匯指數跌到93.62點,即接近中長線走勢的一個關鍵支持地帶出現回彈,惟未脫離危險狀態,但有回穩跡象。另一方面,美10年期債息似在1.7厘水平回穩,目前此回穩勢力度仍頗微弱,但若能再維持數天,力度可望加強,屆時可見美元轉好、美債息再回揚之局。因此,金價再度調整較再行上漲的可能性稍大。
注視升跌概率啟示
目前金市圖表似形成一個左右肩規模並不對稱的「頭肩頂」,稍後金價若不能重返1264元之上,反而跌破1215元,則「頭肩頂」頸線有跌破的危險,且以低於1206元為確認。在此發展途中,1244元是金價一個回升阻力。
銀市是否真能向上突破是金銀兩市日後的關鍵。目前銀價已升越中長線對數圖上自2013年以來的下降軌,但中線則升抵一個目標頂部。而生產商淨沽倉量達致極端水平,均為金銀兩市最大的不穩定及危險的市場因素。
因此估計銀價短期內進一步升至16.7元較回調至15.8至15.6元地帶的可能性為低。總的來說,金銀兩市現處於牛熊懸崖決鬥的危險狀態,注視最近兩三天相關金融市場的變化,會為金銀升跌概率帶來更多啟示。

2016年4月16日星期六

德银终于承认操纵金价了!未来将曝光更多涉案银行


新闻配图

近日,有媒体报道称,德意志银行已率先解决持续了很久的黄金价格操纵案,这意味着它将背弃贵金属操纵联盟。据了解,德意志银行除了提供一定的补偿金外,还将透露其他参与操纵贵金属价格的银行。

这起案件在曼哈顿联邦法院受理,根据投资者们的指控,银行们合谋在金融和商品市场操纵利率或价格。

分析师预期,德意志银行已经“叛变”,未来将有更多和贵金属价格操纵有关的消息被曝光,同时也证实了此前消息人士所述的“贵金属市场一直被操纵”观点。

不久前,路透社曾报道称,德意志银行已经就“操纵黄金价格”一案与美国法庭达成和解协议。换言之,在承认操纵白银市场的数个小时之后,德银又承认了它在操纵金价。

以下是和德意志银行操纵贵金价有关的新闻标题:

德银与控诉其操纵金价的法庭达成协议

律师称德意志银行已就“金价操控案”签署和解协议

律师称正在协商和解协议,之后将提交法官批准

律师称和解协议将考虑让德意志银行支付一定补偿金

继“银价操纵案”之后德银与法庭又达成了金价操纵和解协议

最重要的是,正如“银价操纵案”和解协议显示的那样,德意志银行还同意与原告合作,帮助原告对其他被告银行进行索赔。(双刀)

2016年4月13日星期三

RBC將金價預估大漲13%!四張圖看懂為何年底上1300美元


(來源:AFP)(來源:AFP)

黃金期貨價格今年第一季跳升 16%,創 30 年來最佳首季表現。加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 如今將今年底目標價大漲 13%,由原本預期的每盎司 1150 美元調高至 1300 美元,因美國通貨膨脹再起,但聯準會 (Fed) 的貨幣政策立場卻維持寬鬆,可能引發金市重現 1970 年代的漲勢。

RBC週日 (10 日) 發布報告預估,今年平均金價將較原本預期再漲 9%。週一紐約 4 月交貨金價又勁揚 1.8%,報每盎司 1258 美元。該行看多金價的理由,包括中國及印度等實體黃金主要進口國的需求穩定、實質利率低落推高黃金的保值吸引力、全球國家央行對黃金的胃口仍強,以及黃金 ETF 淨流入資金強勁。

RBC 指出,Fed 主席葉倫 (Janet Yellen) 上個月於紐約經濟俱樂部 (Economic Club of New York) 發言時表示,「實質聯邦基金利率」的中立水準很可能接近 0%;而若以美國核心個人消費支出 (core PCE) 來計算,目前的利率水準甚至還更低,只有 –1.25%。

此外,Fed 決策官員開始越來越擔憂,通膨可能逐漸脫離較長期的穩定水準,但卻是下行,這意味美國實質利率降低的機率很可能增加。Fed 立場轉變,加上今年頭兩個月全球市場劇烈震盪後,投資人預期有此結果,驅使黃金 ETF 爆發可能是 2011 年以來首見的持續買氣。

圖一。黃線:過去12年金價走勢。斜線格:黃金ETF持金量。圖一。黃線:過去12年金價走勢。斜線格:黃金ETF持金量。

RBC 表示,全球黃金 ETF 的實金需求,是這波金價漲勢主要動力,從圖一可見。其中規模最大的道富財富黃金指數基金 (SPDR Gold Trust)(GLD-US),今年來增持的黃金規模眼看將創 2012 年以來新高。而從圖二也可看出,今年來黃金 ETF 持金量與黃金淨多部位一同攀高,帶動金價漲勢。

圖二。紅線:歷年金價走勢。黃格:歷年ETF持金量變化。藍格:歷年金價淨多倉變化。圖二。紅線:歷年金價走勢。黃格:歷年ETF持金量變化。藍格:歷年金價淨多倉變化。

RBC 解釋,在正常環境下,當市場預期通膨而非通縮,但通膨率卻不高甚至走跌,則實質利率──即名目利率減去通膨率──傾向正值。在這種情況下,持有黃金的成本便相當於該實質利率,使得金價走勢與實質利率的走勢呈現負相關。

圖三。左:過去55年美國通膨率(淺藍線)與美國10年公債殖利率(深藍線)趨勢比對圖。右圖三。左:過去55年美國通膨率(淺藍線)與美國10年公債殖利率(深藍線)趨勢比對圖。右:歷年美國實質利率線圖

RBC 以美國 5 年期通膨率交換 (inflation swap) 代表預期通膨水準,以美國 10 年期公債殖利率代表預期的長期利率,以此來估算市場預期的實質利率走勢,如圖三所顯示。RBC 發現,近年實質利率走勢似乎重蹈 1970 年代的覆轍。

圖四。左:過去10年金價(深藍線)與美國實質利率(淺藍線)走勢比對圖。右:美國實質利率與隱含金價水準連動估價圖。圖四。左:過去10年金價(深藍線)與美國實質利率(淺藍線)走勢比對圖。右:美國實質利率與隱含金價水準連動估價圖。

此外 RBC 也見到,自 2008 年以來,金價與美國實質利率的負相關連動性高漲,如圖四所示。根據歷史上實質利率與預估金價的連動估算,若美國實質利率為 –0.5%,暗示金價應該會來到每盎司 1380 美元水準;實質利率若 –1%,則金價便可能衝上 1546 美元。

2016年4月12日星期二

全球央行吹响“宽松”号角 黄金冲击1260白银疯涨


FX168讯 国际现货黄金周二(4月12日)亚市盘初曾进一步刷新1259.60美元的近三周高位,随后回落至1255美元附近盘整。周一(4月11日)因全球主要央行继续实施超低利率的预期升温,且美联储货币政策的不确定性打压美元走软,金价获得提振大涨逾1%,并刷新1258.70美元的近三周高位,而白银更是一度上涨近4%,接近16美元关口。

主要央行宽松预期升温 金价升至近三周高位

由于近期欧洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BOJ)都有意进一步扩大宽松措施,且美联储货币政策的不确定性以及疲软的经济数据也激发避险情绪升温,推高了投资者的黄金需求。

周一美元兑一篮子货币下跌0.5%,对黄金市场起到普遍支撑作用;国际金价当天大涨逾1.3%,并触及3月22日以来最高的每盎司1258.70美元。

(黄金30分钟 来源:FX168财经网)

其它贵金属方面,银价表现好于金价,因交易基金持续增持银,黄金/银交易比率下降给银价提供了额外支撑。

周一现货白银上涨3.9%,报每盎司15.95美元;现货铂金涨2%,报每盎司985.12美元;现货钯金升1.1%,报每盎司544.93美元。

德国商业银行分析师Daniel Briesemann称,“多家央行奉行非常宽松的货币政策,应该推动金价走得更高。欧洲央行已经扩大了国债购买计划,且没有排除进一步刺激措施。”

在对于欧元区通胀前景的担忧不断加剧的背景下,欧洲央行的官员们在3月份的会议上讨论了更大幅度的降息、免除部分存款适用负利率的政策。

目前以欧元计算的金价已经自3月30日以来首次突破每盎司1100欧元大关。

另一方面,日本央行负利率的尝试效果不佳,而可用的手段也在变少。分析师推测央行下次进行宽松会聚焦于购入股市的资产。

法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole)首席经济学家尾形和彦周一(4月11日)在报告中称,该行目前预期日本央行(BOJ)将在今年4月扩大宽松举措,原先预期为6月,但进一步扩大负利率对央行来说可能十分困难。

另外,今年美联储收紧货币政策的预期减弱,帮助金价在今年首季录得近30年来最佳季度表现,此前美联储在去年12月进行了近10年来首次升息。

纽约联储主席杜德利上周五曾表示,美联储必需对升息采取谨慎的态度,因为持续的外部风险威胁美国经济。

美联储4月加息或告吹 6月仍存在可能性

美国达拉斯联储主席柯普朗(Robert Steven Kaplan)周一表示,对在6月中的政策会议上决定是否加息持“非常开放的态度”,此番言论似乎消除了本月稍晚会议行动的可能,因经济形势还不明朗。

柯普朗称,“在某个时候我会提倡采取下一步举措,但顺带一提,不是现在。”

柯普朗重申要对加息保持“谨慎和耐心”,他并称4月26-27日召开政策会议时,要研判强劲就业增长还是疲弱经济增长是今年第一季的持续特征,还为时尚早。

另外,美国总统奥巴马周一与美联储主席耶伦(Jannet Yellen)会面,并讨论了劳工市场和经济面临的可能风险,同时还讨论美国近期和长期的经济前景。

耶伦上周四(4月7日)也曾再度发表讲话称,尽管在发生金融危机及大萧条以来的最严重衰退之后,经济取得了“巨大进步”,但依然认为美国劳动力市场存在一定程度的松弛。同时,美元升值对经济构成拖累。

眼下多数分析师预期美联储会在6月升息,期货市场则对此高度怀疑,显示或许到12月才可能收紧政策。

麦格理集团全球利率及外汇策略师Thierry Albert Wizman表示,“底线在于,4月加息看似不太可能。”不过,他补充道,FOMC认为渐进加息路径仍为合适之举,6月仍有加息的可能性。

加拿大帝国行业银行(CIBC)表示,从美联储主席耶伦的表态、美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的普遍观点来看,若核心通胀比FOMC委员们当前预期的更持久,美联储将更坚定的转向6月加息,将令美元收复部分近期录得的跌幅。

金价涨势强劲 机构整体情绪乐观

凯投宏观经济学家Gambarini表示,预计美国通胀压力将会使实际利率处在低水平,增加黄金的吸引力;同时利率上涨也未必一定意味着金价的下跌,因为欧洲还有诸多不确定性,比如英国退欧;因此仍预计今年年底金价在1350美元/盎司水平。

加拿大皇家银行(RBC)称,美联储更为鸽派的立场、实际利率下滑,以及对实体黄金的基本需求好转,使得黄金前景更为积极。

RBC将2016年黄金均价预估上调9%,至每盎司1250美元。同时预计在2016年剩余时间,金价将在每盎司1200-1300美元波动,价格随着时间推移逐渐上涨。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)上调今年黄金均预期10%至1270美元/盎司,将明年金价预期上调12%至1313美元/盎司。

瑞士信贷预计,到2017年一季度,金价将能够涨至1350美元/盎司水平,不过2018年年初将有所回落,受到全球经济改善和利率上涨的影响。

法国外贸银行商品分析师Bernard Dahdah预计未来一个月金价将在1200-1250美元/盎司区间波动;他表示美联储加息与否左右着金价的走势,目前许多分析师预计美联储将在6月加息。

华侨银行(OCBC)分析师Barnabas Gan表示:“市场对全球经济有些紧张,而黄金是受偏爱的避险资产。短期黄金市场将依然受到支撑,但今年晚些时候,金价会有些回落,因为美联储将会有两次加息。

但值得注意的是,据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)上周五(4月8日)发布的数据显示,对冲基金和货币经理在截至4月5日当周减少了黄金期货和期权净多头头寸,不过仍距离两个月高位不远。

全球最大黄金支持上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust持金量上周五下跌,总持有量减少了0.22%至817.81吨。

校对:Sarah

伊斯兰金融体系下黄金标准或新创数百吨实物黄金需求


FX168讯 近几年各国央行的大幅宽松政策使得一些回归金本位的声音开始出现,而与此同时,在伊斯兰金融系统中,金本位却已经先行一步。

一名为伊斯兰金融机构的会计和审计组织工作的沙利亚法专家Mohd Daud Bakar表示:“目前已经在最好一稿了,非常接近最终结果。”

据悉,在这伊斯兰教沙利亚法的标准下,投资者们将只能投资实业、伊斯兰债券和一些股票。据专家称,由于实物背书的标准,Comex黄金并不符合沙利亚法标准,但新加坡的黄金合约却符合标准。

世界黄金协会(WGC)的主管Natalie Dempster表示:“数以百吨的新黄金需求将就此被创造出来,这一标准会弥补市场的一个重要缺口。”

WGC称,在沙利亚法标准下,黄金ETF符合标准。

据悉,这一黄金标准将在今年晚些时候完成,在摩洛哥、迪拜或者印尼和马来西亚进行公开听证。

校对:冷静

Yes, the Dollar Should Be Backed by Gold...


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – “What if you were appointed to head the Fed? In your first week on the job, what would you do?”

The question was not exactly serious. Neither was the answer.

“We’d call in sick.”

Drying Winds, Hungry Cattle

We are on our way to the family ranch in northwestern Argentina. We’ll spend a couple of days in Buenos Aires… then fly up to Salta.

From there, it’s a six-hour drive, up and over the mountains, on dirt roads – stopping by a cattle ranch to inspect some of our animals – until we finally reach lasala, our ranch headquarters.

It’s been a hard year in the mountains.

Normally, we get about 5 inches of rain annually. But this year, the ranch has gotten only half its usual allotment. All of that moisture falls in January and February. Not another drop will drip on the ranch until next year.

That leaves another nine months of drying winds and hungry cattle.

But that is just the beginning of the bad news… More to come when we report from the ranch later this week.

In the meantime, we return to tackling the world’s problems.

A Return to Gold

Drought, old age, traffic congestion, meanness, purple drink, bad taste, rap, suburbs, cancer, government, Hillary Clinton, restaurant music, shorts, Facebook, obesity – there are a lot of things wrong in the world.

And most of them are not easily put right.

But there are some problems that could be solved overnight. Economic and financial problems, for example, solve themselves… if you let them.

Almost all the macro-money wounds suffered by the modern world are self-inflicted. Central banks and treasury departments around the world keep shooting themselves in the foot. But rather than stop manipulating the system… they buy another pair of shoes.

If we were miraculously appointed by President Trump to run the Fed, our first act would be to put the gun down.

We would announce that, henceforth, anyone waiting for the next rate hike would have to wait a long time. Because we wouldn’t be making any rate hikes… or rate cuts either. Instead, interest rates would have to take care of themselves. Lenders and borrowers would set their own rates.

But what about if banks got into trouble?

Ah… we’d take care of that too. We’d point out that the Fed would no longer lend to them in an emergency.

Our announcement: “To any bank that runs out of money: Drop dead.”

Then, we would put the entire Fed balance sheet – the more than $4 trillion in dodgy bonds it bought over the last eight years – up for sale.

And we would send layoff notices to the entire staff… telling them to clean out their desks, admonishing them that henceforth they would have to seek honest employment or try to land a job on Wall Street.

Had we the power, we would take one further step: We would declare that Americans could use whatever currency they wanted, that the dollar would once again be exchangeable for a fixed quantity of gold, and that the U.S. Treasury would accept any major currency – including bitcoin – in payment of taxes.

See how easy it would be? All of the heavy lifting could be accomplished before lunchtime on our first Monday on the job.

Then we would slip out the back of the Eccles Building… with luck, just before posse caught up to us.

Solid Dollar

And yet, those simple changes would eliminate most of the money troubles facing the U.S.

With no further gas coming in, the debt bubble would deflate. Bad investments, bad business, and overpriced assets would all lose air… and disappear.

The dollar would be solid again. It would represent real value, not counterfeit wealth.

Borrowing would be based on real savings, not just more hollow credits.

And – with only scarce capital to work with (rather than an unlimited supply of phony-baloney credit) – investors and entrepreneurs would be careful about what they did with their investments.

They would put capital to work only in projects that increased the real value of America’s assets, rather than those that merely shifted wealth from Main Street to Wall Street.

Admittedly, this would be a lot for the American people to take in. Most people have no idea how the money system works. The credit dollar is all they know. And they still have faith that the big heads at the Fed know what they are doing.

The newspapers and pundits would howl in alarm. Respectable economists would choke on their indignation. Lynch mobs would form. They would call our program “radical” and “irresponsible,” unaware that today’s system is the most radical, experimental, and irresponsible in history.

Our proposals would take the country back to a traditional and sensible money system. People would decide for themselves what kind of money they wanted to use… whether to save it… or spend it… and what price to put on it if they wanted to lend it out.

Would it work?

We don’t know, but we’d like to see someone give it a try.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for Bonner and Partners

2016年4月11日星期一

PAMP 銀條

早前在澳洲買入PMAP 1 KG 銀條 ,當時國際銀價大約在15.90,
折算為HK42xx

金價強勢 好淡爭持

石林
由於剛巧遇到假期休刊的關係,敝欄上次與讀者見面是周三前的事了。過去三週,金價經歷了從1260.9美元偏高水平回跌至1206美元,其後上揚至1246.8美元的過程,上週收市報1238.4美元。可見金市的熱度確略為降溫,但牛方與熊方仍在激烈較量。
同期銀價亦從16.04美元下滑至14.78美元,爾後又漲至15.39美元,上週收報15.36美元。好淡爭持同樣十分激烈。
市場對美國加息步伐預期和情緒的變化,近期相當程度地主宰金市上落。這段期間,先聽見數字美國地方儲備銀行總裁認為4月份會加息的言論,金價從早前的偏高位明顯回落。其後聯儲局主席耶倫發表出人意表的極為溫和言論,金價即從調整低位反彈,其效應持續至今。銀價則稍受商品價格影響。
受惠加息吹淡風
耶倫的鴿派言論明顯地影響美元匯價,美匯指數最近兩星期從96.42進一步下滑到94.035的偏低水平,金價無疑從中受惠。但若較仔細看,這不是最重要因素,因為近期金價只是與之保持散鬆的反向關係,而同步關係目前似談不上。
另一邊廂,金價近期則與美10年期債券價格有著相當密切的同向且同步關係,這比與美元匯價的關係明顯得多。行情說明市場對美國利率走向的預期,在目前是主宰金價上落的重要因素。
美10年期債券的價格自上月中旬從調整低位掉頭回升,相應地其孳息率則從1.98厘回落到1.7厘水平。此行情反映債券市場認為,美國加息步伐將極為放緩,甚至懷疑加息的必要性。
然而,相信這是偏頗的反應,從美國一系列經濟數據和聯儲局的表現來看,美國仍有可能今年加息兩次,最起碼不致掉過頭來實施零利率。因此估計美10年債息不致跌穿2月份低點1.63厘水平,而債價將很快遇到回升阻力。
金價表現出抗跌力,除市場改變了對美國加息步伐的預期外,股市和其他市場的動盪重燃投資者對黃金的興趣,亦是一個原因。可是美國貨幣政策與其他主要國家的貨幣仍背馳,加上美國本身的貨幣流動性正在下滑,故黃金新牛市已否產生的問題尚待驗證。
銀市15.55美元有阻力
在金市的中長線對數圖上,金價未能成功地升越並企在自2013年8月以來的下降軌之上,目前是龜縮在該軌之下。但是,最近金價從回升高位1287.8美元向下調整,而有能力企在關連支持水平1191.7美元之上,可見仍保持著相當強勢。有趣的是近週從調整低位回升,現時價位是處於前跌幅之半左右的水平,目前中短線走勢未有明確方向,好淡爭持仍續。
金市真正暗湧是市場本身,商業及生產商的淨沽倉繼續處於自2013年以來的最大量水平,倉位結構處頗不穩定狀態。現估計金市在1245美元仍有阻力,而1255至1260美元是較大的回升阻力地帶。支持則分別在1224美元及1215美元,較關鍵支持是在1206美元。
與金市有別,在中長線對數圖上,銀價至今仍未能升越自2013年8月以來的下降軌,新牛市的初步表徵尚未呈示,惟14.6美元已出現良好支持,故只是有相對強勢。至於倉位結構最近極端狀態雖略有收斂,但商業及生產的淨沽倉仍分別處於​​自2008年或2013年以來的最大量水平。現估計銀市在15.55美元仍有阻力,而15.8美元是較大的回升阻力。支持則在15.05美元,較關鍵支持是在14.8美元。

2016年4月8日星期五

How America will return to the gold standard

謝馬兄提供文章資料

From Porter Stansberry in Stansberry Digest:

Nobody said a word for five blocks…
A few days ago, I (Porter) walked out of a dinner meeting at the Metropolitan Club of New York. I can remember every sight and sound. It all plays back in my head like a high-definition movie. This is not an April Fools’ Day joke, unfortunately. This is a true story, down to the last, incredible, detail.

It was 9:43 p.m. It was Tuesday night. It was about 45 degrees. I was with two of my closest friends and colleagues. There was no wind. Traffic was light. We took a left on Madison, heading north. We went to Club Macanudo on East 63rd Street for an after-dinner drink.
And like I said… nobody said a word.

I was in shock. It felt like I was walking away from a car accident. My adrenaline was pumping. My mind was racing. I couldn’t fully process what I had just learned… but I had never been so afraid – not like this.
At the last minute, I had been invited to have dinner with one of the most powerful men in the world. This man guards his reputation closely. For reasons that will become clear, he does not want to be named in this story. You would immediately recognize his name and you would certainly know his reputation.

His career has spanned the last 40 years and includes stints at the highest levels of the U.S. government. For the last dozen years, he has served as an advisor to the world’s wealthiest men. He sits squarely at the nexus between government policy and the country’s wealthiest and most influential people.

He invited me to dinner on the fifth floor of the Metropolitan Club. Few people outside of New York know about this club. But it’s one of the ultimate bastions of wealth and privilege in our country. Built by J.P. Morgan himself, it sits on the southeast corner of Central Park on Fifth Avenue.

Among other notable events, investing legend Warren Buffett celebrated his 50th birthday there. The most powerful and wealthiest people in the country meet there for dinner. The real policies that run our country get debated and decided there.

I was with two friends that night – our director of business development, Mark Arnold, and Erez Kalir, a well-known and successful hedge-fund manager.

Before coming to Stansberry Research three years ago, Mark was a partner at one of the largest venture-capital law firms in the U.S. He has worked on hundreds of major funding deals. He received his undergraduate degree from Duke and he has both an MBA and a law degree.

A few years ago, Erez managed around $1 billion as part of the Tiger Management group – the hedge-fund family controlled by legendary investor Julian Robertson. Today, Erez runs a small, private investment-advisory business… whose name you might recognize. (It’s called Stansberry Asset Management.*) This firm – which is separately owned and managed – licenses our name and uses our research to build portfolios for high-net-worth investors.

Erez is the smartest investor I have ever met. He received his undergraduate degree from Stanford, was a Rhodes scholar, and graduated from Yale Law School, where he was on Law Review.
You need to understand… the people I was meeting with that night were not conspiracy theorists. They are smart, experienced professionals who know the world (and the major players) of finance inside and out. They do not scare easily. They have seen panics, booms, and busts all around the world. And yet… what we learned at dinner sobered all of us and affected us in a way no other discussion in my career ever has.

Our host – who, by the way, was scheduled to appear on national television at 10 p.m., immediately after our dinner – began the meeting by describing discussions among senior policymakers in the U.S. about the possibility that the U.S. will follow Europe and Japan into negative interest rates. You probably haven’t noticed, but despite the big rebound we’ve seen in the stock market, sovereign interest rates (as measured by the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond) have continued to fall. In the first quarter of the year, the yield fell from 2.27% to 1.77%.

According to our host, among U.S. policymakers it was becoming a foregone conclusion that since Europe (one of our major trading partners) and Japan were both using negative interest rates to weaken their currencies and to avoid deflation, that it was only a matter of time before the U.S. would do the same.

The likelihood that the U.S. will implement a negative interest-rate policy (or “NIRP,” for short) is worrisome. You might have heard about this new kind of monetary policy. It’s like capitalism turned upside down. Instead of being paid to save capital, you’re forced to pay just to keep the money you’ve already earned. Negative interest rates are nothing more than government theft. Its banks literally steal from you every day that you keep your money in dollars, yen, or euros.

The dinner I attended wasn’t about these kinds of NIRP policies, though. Our host was assuming that negative interest rates would certainly occur in the U.S. The problem he wanted to talk about that night wasn’t whether NIRP would happen in America. He wanted to discuss what would happen next… and how the government could possibly put capitalism back together if all hell broke loose under NIRP.

Here’s the hypothesis: What if NIRP spread globally? What if they’re implemented around the world in every major paper currency? Think of it like dominoes. Japan has done it. Europe has done it. Sweden, too.
And last night, China became the latest major domino to fall. The overnight Hong Kong interbank offer rate (“Hibor”), which determines the rate that banks in the city have to pay to borrow Chinese yuan from each other, fell to negative 3.725% annually. Who in his right mind would want to hold yuan if it costs nearly 4% a year just to keep his money in a bank?

America is likely next. If all of the world’s major reserve currencies begin paying negative interest rates, the Federal Reserve will have to follow. Otherwise, the dollar would soar and crash our economy. So if all the major banks in the world are charging negative interest rates… where will the trillions and trillions of dollars in overnight banking deposits flee to next?
Imagine you’re the head of $300 billion reinsurance giant Munich Re. You must hold huge cash reserves so you can pay claims, should they arise. Millions of people around the world depend (and have paid for) the guarantees you’ve made to protect their homes, businesses, properties, and entire cities.

And now, instead of earning interest on these reserves, your company must pay huge sums of money simply to keep your capital safe. What will the people who run firms like Munich Re… or JPMorgan Chase… or Japan’s huge Sumitomo Mitsui Banking do with their capital? How can they keep it safe in an era of negative interest rates?

And what will individuals do? Where would you put your money if Bank of America and Wells Fargo began taxing your wealth and your savings every day, instead of paying you interest? How would you keep your money safe?
Let’s see what people are actually doing when faced with this conundrum. Munich Re is responding to negative interest rates by hoarding cash (tens of millions)… and by holding almost 300,000 ounces of gold. Media reports claim the firm has been an active buyer in the gold market. As Bloomberg News says…

Institutional investors including insurers, savings banks, and pension funds are debating whether it may be worth bearing the insurance and logistics costs of holding physical cash as overnight deposit rates fall deeper below zero and negative yields dent investment returns.

Think about what that means for a little while… and see if you don’t find yourself more than a little worried. NIRP could trigger a massive, global “run on the bank” as everyone begins trying to hoard currency and gold to avoid the penalties being charged by the central banks for using paper money.

Trust me when I tell youPolicymakers in the U.S. are cognizant of this risk. This isn’t a doomsday scenario… It’s happening right now. These risks are exactly why gold has seen its biggest quarterly move higher in more than 30 years.

The run has started.

Look who is suddenly buying gold… former vice chairman of the investment bank Goldman Sachs John Thornton is now running Barrick Gold, one of the world’s largest gold producers. Goldman has already purchased three tons of physical gold for its house account.
Stanley Druckenmiller – one of the most successful investors of the last 30 years and former head of the Quantum Fund – holds about 30% of his personal portfolio in gold.

The same is true across the top echelon of Wall Street’s best hedge-fund managers: John Paulson owns stakes in several gold-mining companies. David Einhorn is a huge gold bull, with more than $100 million invested in gold stocks. Paul Singer says it’s the only real money. Ray Dalio – founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world – says, “If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics.”

I could go on, but you get the point. Billionaires are suddenly hoarding gold and expounding on its role in history. Doesn’t that make you wonder what’s really going on behind the scenes? More and more senior people in finance are buying huge amounts of gold. Why? Because of what I learned at dinner just a few nights ago…

After outlining the risks of NIRP and the inevitable run on paper currencies these policies will produce, our host at the Metropolitan Club asked us a simple question…

How will the world’s central banks regain control of the monetary system when it all finally breaks down? What will get people to stop hoarding cash, to stop buying gold, to put their money back in the banks?

I couldn’t believe my ears. Here was a former government official – at the very highest level – openly discussing a global bank run and how the Federal Reserve and other central banks would try to stop it. I have never in my career heard anyone in government discuss such a scenario. And our host wasn’t merely pondering whether or not this could happen. He was formulating a plan to combat it. He was assuming it would happen… and soon.

He then explained there would only be one sure way to gain control of the system: To use gold. He noted that the U.S. Treasury owns more gold than anyone else in the entire world.

The details about the Treasury’s gold hoard are important to the story. So for review, the U.S. Treasury owns 248 million ounces of gold. It’s held, mostly in the form of gold bricks, at three locations: Fort Knox, West Point, and the U.S. Mint in Denver.

Also important… you should know that about two-thirds of this gold was essentially stolen from private U.S. citizens in 1933, when FDR outlawed the private ownership of gold. The right to own gold wasn’t reinstated until 1974. All of the confiscated gold was melted down into bricks. Then, in 1937, it was put on a special nine-car U.S. Army train and shipped to Fort Knox. Since then, just about the only people who have been allowed to see the gold are auditors from KPMG. No one else is allowed inside.
Our dinner host explained what would happen to this gold if NIRP policies caused a global run on paper money. And that’s when I got genuinely afraid…

The only way to re-establish credibility and regain control of the financial system in the event of a global run on paper currencies would be to re-establish the U.S. dollar’s convertibility into gold. Our host described the means for accomplishing this goal. The Fed, he said, could offer to swap all of the Treasury bonds it holds (about $2.4 trillion) for all of the gold owned by the U.S. Treasury. When you do the math, you come with a new dollar-to-gold ratio of $9,677. Roughly $10,000 an ounce.

Our host went on to describe several important nuances to how such a system would work, which goes beyond the scope of today’s Digest. I want to make sure you understand three key things I learned at this meeting…
  • The first thing you must understand is the world’s system of paper money is unraveling. The only way to prevent a collapse of the banking system under the weight of outrageous sovereign debts is negative interest rates… the very thing that will spark a run on the system itself. The inevitability of this outcome is already influencing the behavior of the world’s largest banks, insurance companies, and the wealthiest investors. And they’re all going to do one thing: Buy gold.
  • The second thing you should know is that as this crisis unfolds, people in and around government who understand how to use our country’s gold (most of which was stolen from citizens) will re-establish financial order. But so much money has been created out of thin air that the price of gold will have to soar (relative to the dollar) to stabilize the system after it collapses.
  • The third thing you have to understand is that the government will almost surely do something to prevent you from buying gold when the panic comes. That’s why our host (a former leading government official) is buying gold now. And that’s why you must do so, too – immediately.
As you can tell… this dinner had a profound effect on me. I walked away in silence, as did my colleagues. I was simply in awe at the enormity of what I had heard.

I’ve spent the last several days struggling to wrap my mind around what this all means… for me, for my subscribers, for my family… and for our country. For me and my friends who were at dinner that night, nothing will ever be the same again. There will not be another night’s rest without this idea in the back of our minds. There will never be another day in our lives that we forget what we were told… and what it means will happen.
At first, I wasn’t sure if I could tell you anything about what was said, or who was there. But much to my surprise, I received permission from our host to publish a summary of what was discussed.
 
Then I had to decide if I dared to do so.

You see, this was a detailed plan to stop a run on the dollar. It’s a plan that’s being discussed in secret at the highest levels of finance and government. If this plan is adopted and formalized, it would be, without a doubt, the most highly classified, closely guarded financial secret in the world. I could be putting myself (and my company) in some jeopardy by sharing this information. But… that’s what I felt I had to do.
And I want to do more.

First, I’m going to host a live webinar to discuss everything I heard that night and what it means for us as a country and as investors.
Second, I’ve sent my best resource analyst around the country to meet with leaders in the gold industry. I’m building my first-ever gold-research product. For the first time in my career, I’m going to put my own name on a well-diversified portfolio of gold investments.

In the past, I’ve recommended following Casey Research and John Doody’s Gold Stock Analyst advisory. We’ve even published some gold research in the Stansberry Resource Report. But going forward, I’m going to be leading our efforts personally. And I’m hiring a large new team to produce the best work available on gold and the precious metals sector. As usual, when I decide to do something, I make sure it’s great – far better than any other research you can get elsewhere.

Third, we’re going to continue to follow the NIRP story every day for you in the Digest. Regardless of whether you attend our webinar about these risks or you subscribe to my new gold research, I’m going to make sure you stay completely up to date on the growing risks of a global run on the banks. It’s the greatest risk we face to our wealth and to the stability of our countryAnd most people don’t yet realize how serious these problems have already become.

You’ll see detailed coverage of this story over the next several days, and we’ll continue to report on these risks going forward. You won’t be among the millions of investors who never saw this coming.

One last thing… Back in 2007 and 2008, when I began to report on the huge risks posed to our economy by the mortgage bubble, and when I warned about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going broke and General Motors going bankrupt… and the likelihood of the investment banks going bust, most people thought that writing about these things meant that I was hoping they would happen. Soon, I was receiving death threats. Some were even sent to my home.

Please do not conflate the facts I report or the things I warn could happen with what I wish would occur. I do not hope for a global run on banks. I do not hope for the price of gold to soar to $10,000 an ounce. All of these things would be terrible for our country and for millions and millions of people around the world.

Believe me, I hope I’m completely wrong about all of these things. But for the first time in my career, I can clearly see that we’re careening toward a massive collapse of the paper-money system. In my view, it’s not a matter of “if.” It’s a matter of “when.”

I hope you’ll join me Wednesday night for a full discussion of these risks. Click here to reserve your spot.

Regards,
Porter Stansberry


http://thecrux.com/

中、俄狂買金!全球央行購金量創金本位制結束來次高

</全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯存底分散需求日增,促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金,收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。專家認為,金價年初以來的漲勢應該是短暫的,預估未來數月內就回再次跌到1,200美元以下,但供需狀況逐漸改善、應可為金價提供支撐。 英國金融時報、路透社31日報導,根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計,俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張,為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去,該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家,去年收購量增加了206公噸。 中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金,使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸,與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。 另一方面,仰賴石油營收的國家則為了籌措現錢、轉而賣出黃金。其中,委內瑞拉去年截至6月底為止拋售了44公噸,賣超幅度居全球之冠,而哥倫比亞也賣出了6.9公噸的黃金、相當於整體儲備量的2/3。 GFMS預測,金價雖然在連跌三年後、於今年年初大漲,主要是拜避險需求跳增之賜,但由於聯準會(Fed)仍打算繼續收緊銀根,預料會讓金價漲勢受到壓抑。該機構預估,黃金這波漲幅應該只是短暫的,一旦金融市場開始止穩,金價也會隨之下降,尤其是當前的亞洲實體需求依舊相當疲弱。 GFMS認為,金價或許未來幾個月就會跌破每盎司1,200美元。 根據統計,全球實體黃金需求在去年年減2%至五年低點4,124公噸,而珠寶需求也下降3%至三年低點2,166公噸。 不過,GFMS還是預估,金礦產出在去年達到歷史高3,158公噸之後,今年應會下滑、為2008年首見,至於實體需求也將逐步回溫,進而讓過剩量在今年收斂,為金價提供支撐。DIV

2016年4月6日星期三

中国欲批准一万亿元债转股 外媒:最快4月正式推出


新闻配图

【相关阅读】外媒:中国大型银行为何对债转股计划心存谨慎?

据不愿具名知情人士称,正式的债转股实施方案最快或于4月份正式推出。中国财政部、中国央行、中国银监会均未回复。彭博寻求置评的传真上述人士不愿具名,因细节未公开。

此前,国内媒体援引国开行一位未具名高层人士的话报道称,预计中国将在三年甚至更短时间内,化解1万亿元左右规模的银行潜在不良资产。

中国农业银行行长赵欢在该行的年报业绩发布会上称,债转股的方案预计将很快出台。

中国国务院总理李克强此前在博鳌亚洲论坛上表示,用市场化办法推动债转股,探索用债转股降低企业杠杆。

2016年4月4日星期一

中、俄狂買金!全球央行購金量創金本位制結束來次高


鉅亨網新聞
 
全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯 存底分散需求日增,促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金,收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。專家認為,金價年初以來 的漲勢應該是短暫的,預估未來數月內就回再次跌到1,200美元以下,但供需狀況逐漸改善、應可為金價提供支撐。

英國金融時報、路透社31日報導,根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計,俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張,為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去,該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家,去年收購量增加了206公噸。

中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金,使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸,與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。

另一方面,仰賴石油營收的國家則為了籌措現錢、轉而賣出黃金。其中,委內瑞拉去年截至6月底為止拋售了44公噸,賣超幅度居全球之冠,而哥倫比亞也賣出了6.9公噸的黃金、相當於整體儲備量的2/3。

GFMS 預測,金價雖然在連跌三年後、於今年年初大漲,主要是拜避險需求跳增之賜,但由於聯準會(Fed)仍打算繼續收緊銀根,預料會讓金價漲勢受到壓抑。該機構 預估,黃金這波漲幅應該只是短暫的,一旦金融市場開始止穩,金價也會隨之下降,尤其是當前的亞洲實體需求依舊相當疲弱。GFMS認為,金價或許未來幾個月 就會跌破每盎司1,200美元。

根據統計,全球實體黃金需求在去年年減2%至五年低點4,124公噸,而珠寶需求也下降3%至三年低點2,166公噸。

不過,GFMS還是預估,金礦產出在去年達到歷史高3,158公噸之後,今年應會下滑、為2008年首見,至於實體需求也將逐步回溫,進而讓過剩量在今年收斂,為金價提供支撐。