Peter Schiff - Relentless Rise in Gold to Continue
With gold consolidating recent gains, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital, to get his take on where things stand. When asked about the run in gold Schiff responded, “Well it’s going to continue, gold is going to go higher because people want refuge. In fact the other safe havens in the currency world, like the Swiss Franc or the Yen, the central banks there are trying to undermine their currencies.
除黄金外的避险货币，如瑞郎和日元，对应的央行狂印且干预市场，结果是为渊驱鱼，黄金只好涨得更快。
I mean the Swiss are actually thinking about pegging their currency to the euro. One of the reasons people were buying the Swiss Franc was to get out of the euro. Now they are threatening to turn the Swiss Franc into the euro. So what’s the one asset that central banks can’t print? That’s gold and so gold is the last man standing and everybody is going to be piling into it.”
When asked about the relentless rise in gold Schiff replied, “Look at what’s going on, governments have interest rates at zero, the Fed just said they are going to keep interest rates there for at least two years. That’s basically QE3 because they are going to have to buy a lot of bonds to keep interest rates that low. So what else is gold going to do?
零 利率到2013年中，这就是QE3.因为如果财政部大把赤字而发债又没人买的话，国债收益率会狂涨，而fed已经承诺低利率至少2年，绝不会坐视不理。毕 竟国债收益率才是真正的利率，尤其在商业银行不愿大量放贷给中小企业和个人的时候。这个等于说，未来2年，财政的缺口，Ben都可以补上。注意，这是没有 数量限制，甚至没有最长时间限制的QE。
PS. 美国财政赤字远超过贸易赤字，所以指望中日中东能足够买单，即使他们真是蠢猪，这个想法也是幼稚的。
If there is no yield on currencies, if they are printing them like they are going out of style, if governments are trying to keep economies inflated and they have all of this debt, how are they going to get rid of the debt? They are going to inflate it away. If they are not going to default and they are not going to cut government spending, what’s left? Inflation, print money.
So it’s becoming obvious to more and more people and when the government repudiates its debt through inflation, when you hear they (governments) are inflating their way out of debt, well, yes they are inflating their way out of debt, but they are also inflating their creditors out of their assets.
When the government gets rid of its debt through inflation, it wipes out people’s assets that are based in that currency, people’s savings. So if you don’t want to get your assets inflated away, you buy gold, that’s the refuge....
“Gold will be overbought for years, I mean it will have pullbacks, but most of the time it will just be going higher and you are going to have to buy it. That’s the wall of worry. I talk to people all of the time who say, ‘I can’t buy gold because it’s high.’ Who says it’s high? Maybe it’s lower than it was based on how many dollars and euros and RMB are out in circulation now.
Gold is a measurement of the value of money. So the higher the price of gold, all it’s telling you is that money as wealth has lost value. If money keeps losing value, then gold has to keep going higher. Gold only has one way to go and that is higher because the only way that you are going to stop the price of gold from rising would be to do what Paul Volker did in 1980. We need to get a huge increase in interest rates, where interest rates are way ahead of the real rate of inflation.
But the problem is you can’t do that without completely destroying the phony US economy, so you’ve got to be willing to do that. To break the run in gold, you have to be willing to collapse the economy, to bankrupt the US government, to crash the housing market, to bankrupt the banks. You have to be willing to take a recession or depression, one that’s much worse than the one in 2008/2009 time frame. I just don’t see any political will to do that. As I said, they are going to keep on printing so it’s just a one way trip for gold.”
让 黄金走熊的办法只有一个，就是80年代初沃尔克的那招，高利率，远高过通胀率的利率。可这次不行。如果这次玩高利率，金子没打下来，经济就先崩溃了，政府 破产，楼市崩盘，银行倒闭，这些在高利率面前一个也逃不掉。所以，我看不到有任何政治意愿会去搞高利率。这次的黄金牛市，是单程票。(Jim Sinclair和James Turk 都认为，这次的牛市终点，绝非80年的尖顶，而是金本位，也许是浮动的，也许还是固定的，也许是部分的，不管如何，将来人们惦记的，是各国货币单位值多少 克黄金，而不是相反)
When asked about silver specifically Schiff stated, “I think silver is a good buy. Silver has kind of been restrained a little bit, but now as gold is rising and silver is getting pretty cheap on a ratio basis, silver is a good buy here.”
相对于黄金，白银更便宜。
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