Whilst discussing the demise of
the Canadian penny in front of a Congressional panel, Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke demonstrates that "transactional currency is simply a notional,
purely symbolic token medium of exchange, much more replaceable,
resource-efficient and environmentally friendly than mining stupid
metals for stupid coins."
(NotReal News)
Remember my post around this same time last year titled Deflation or Hyperinflation?
At that time, the debate between deflation and hyperinflation was all
the rage, and so I wrote a post to a prominent and long-time
deflationist named Rick Ackerman, who later stopped by in the comments. In fact, most of my hyperinflation posts have been written in the context of the deflationists' arguments.
I can't say that the debate has shifted from deflation to inflation over the last year, but it sure seems that the arguments coming across my desk these days are for rising inflation with the exclusion of hyperinflation. My position hasn't changed. But this does give me the opportunity to present my position against a different premise, that of inflation without currency collapse. I would guess that some of you will have a completely different view of hyperinflation by the time you finish this post. If so, please let me know in the comments.
But first I need to make it clear once again that this hyperinflation discussion is not about timing. It’s about how it all ends, and it’s better (for a saver) to be a decade too early than a minute too late. The other side (whoever it may be) often tries to make the debate about timing. It is not about timing and I don't do timing, but that doesn't mean the end is far away. If anything, it's overdue in the same way a big earthquake can be overdue. In 'Deflation or Hyperinflation?' I wrote:
The whole point of the [hyperinflation] debate is about the denouement, the final outcome of this 100-year dollar experiment. It is about the ultimate end, and the debate has been going on ever since the 70s when the dollar was separated from gold and it became clear that there would be an end. The debate is about determining the best stance someone should take who has plenty of net worth. And I do mean PLENTY. People of modest net worth, like me, can of course participate in the debate. But then it can become confusing at times when we think about shortages or supply disruptions of necessities like food. Of course you need to look out for life's necessities first and foremost. But beyond that, there is real value to be gained by truly understanding this debate.
Here is FOA on timing, from a post in which he specifically predicted dollar "hyper price inflation":
Timing?
We, and I, as physical gold advocates, don't need timing for this position! Timing is for poor, paper traders. We are neither and our solid, long term, one call over several years to hold physical gold will confirm our reasoning. There is no stress for me to own this ancient asset as it is in a good proportion to all my other wealth.
There is no trading an economic system whose currency is ending its timeline. Smart, quick talking players will joke at our expense until fast markets and locked down paper gold positions block their "trading even" move into physical at any relative cheap price. Mine owners will see any near term profits evaporate into a government induced pricing contango that constrains stock equity with forced selling at paper gold prices.
My personal view
They will, one day in the future, helplessly watch their investments fall far behind a world free market price for physical gold. Further into the future, one day, mines will make money on the last thousand per ounce price for gold; only the first $XX,000.00 of price will not be available to them.
Yup, that was back in October of 2001. Bad timing? How have your mining stocks done lately? I know of one FOA reader who went "all in" with gold coins that year to the tune of somewhere around $400K. He had just retired from his previous life as a trader. Today his golden nest egg is worth $2 million, and he has been living off of it for most of that time! So much for bad timing, eh?
My argument for hyperinflation is FOA's argument. So you'll see me use FOA's terms. You'll see me quote a lot of FOA. And you'll see me restate the same call he made back in 2001. His call was clear and unchanging. His argument wasn't wrong then and it is even more pressing today, which I will explain. And just to be clear about FOA's call, here it is from that same post:
"While others call, once again, for a little bit of 5, 10, 15% price inflation, that lasts until the fed can once again get it under control,,,,,,,,, I call for a complete, currency killing, inflation process that runs until the dollar resembles some South American Peso!"
"Complete, currency killing" hyperinflation is a one-time event. In a moment I'll explain the reasoning behind this call and why it still stands. But first, let's take a look at a couple of the "inflation but not hyperinflation" arguments that have come into my sights.
"An Adult Approach"
In An Adult Approach – II (Defining Relative Real Value) Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management (or QBAMCO) laid out a nice argument for what sounds a lot like FOA's front lawn dump but without the "complete, currency killing" hyperinflation. In it, they explained that the process of "re-collateralizing unreserved credit" which began in 2008 will likely end with all of the assets backing today's bank money being replaced with new base money.
I can't say that the debate has shifted from deflation to inflation over the last year, but it sure seems that the arguments coming across my desk these days are for rising inflation with the exclusion of hyperinflation. My position hasn't changed. But this does give me the opportunity to present my position against a different premise, that of inflation without currency collapse. I would guess that some of you will have a completely different view of hyperinflation by the time you finish this post. If so, please let me know in the comments.
But first I need to make it clear once again that this hyperinflation discussion is not about timing. It’s about how it all ends, and it’s better (for a saver) to be a decade too early than a minute too late. The other side (whoever it may be) often tries to make the debate about timing. It is not about timing and I don't do timing, but that doesn't mean the end is far away. If anything, it's overdue in the same way a big earthquake can be overdue. In 'Deflation or Hyperinflation?' I wrote:
The whole point of the [hyperinflation] debate is about the denouement, the final outcome of this 100-year dollar experiment. It is about the ultimate end, and the debate has been going on ever since the 70s when the dollar was separated from gold and it became clear that there would be an end. The debate is about determining the best stance someone should take who has plenty of net worth. And I do mean PLENTY. People of modest net worth, like me, can of course participate in the debate. But then it can become confusing at times when we think about shortages or supply disruptions of necessities like food. Of course you need to look out for life's necessities first and foremost. But beyond that, there is real value to be gained by truly understanding this debate.
Here is FOA on timing, from a post in which he specifically predicted dollar "hyper price inflation":
Timing?
We, and I, as physical gold advocates, don't need timing for this position! Timing is for poor, paper traders. We are neither and our solid, long term, one call over several years to hold physical gold will confirm our reasoning. There is no stress for me to own this ancient asset as it is in a good proportion to all my other wealth.
There is no trading an economic system whose currency is ending its timeline. Smart, quick talking players will joke at our expense until fast markets and locked down paper gold positions block their "trading even" move into physical at any relative cheap price. Mine owners will see any near term profits evaporate into a government induced pricing contango that constrains stock equity with forced selling at paper gold prices.
My personal view
They will, one day in the future, helplessly watch their investments fall far behind a world free market price for physical gold. Further into the future, one day, mines will make money on the last thousand per ounce price for gold; only the first $XX,000.00 of price will not be available to them.
Yup, that was back in October of 2001. Bad timing? How have your mining stocks done lately? I know of one FOA reader who went "all in" with gold coins that year to the tune of somewhere around $400K. He had just retired from his previous life as a trader. Today his golden nest egg is worth $2 million, and he has been living off of it for most of that time! So much for bad timing, eh?
My argument for hyperinflation is FOA's argument. So you'll see me use FOA's terms. You'll see me quote a lot of FOA. And you'll see me restate the same call he made back in 2001. His call was clear and unchanging. His argument wasn't wrong then and it is even more pressing today, which I will explain. And just to be clear about FOA's call, here it is from that same post:
"While others call, once again, for a little bit of 5, 10, 15% price inflation, that lasts until the fed can once again get it under control,,,,,,,,, I call for a complete, currency killing, inflation process that runs until the dollar resembles some South American Peso!"
"Complete, currency killing" hyperinflation is a one-time event. In a moment I'll explain the reasoning behind this call and why it still stands. But first, let's take a look at a couple of the "inflation but not hyperinflation" arguments that have come into my sights.
"An Adult Approach"
In An Adult Approach – II (Defining Relative Real Value) Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management (or QBAMCO) laid out a nice argument for what sounds a lot like FOA's front lawn dump but without the "complete, currency killing" hyperinflation. In it, they explained that the process of "re-collateralizing unreserved credit" which began in 2008 will likely end with all of the assets backing today's bank money being replaced with new base money.
In other words, US dollar monetary base (today at around $2.6T) will be
increased to cover and replace today's US bank assets (almost $20T).
But they aren't predicting that the entire money supply will become base
money, as happens during hyperinflation. Instead, they think that as
credit money has all but been replaced with base money, "bank animal
spirits will once again take over and we will have a new leveraging
cycle." They provided the following conceptual illustration to help us
visualize what they are projecting:
Then they ask (and answer), "Will the lines meet or cross? We don’t believe so…" I'm going to give you a longer excerpt, but I wanted to highlight this point first, because it is where my view differs from their view. The lines meeting and crossing is exactly what it looks like during hyperinflation, when bank credit disappears (because price inflation is running too hot to issue credit at any practical interest rate) and the entire money supply becomes base money in amounts which overtake the previous amount of credit money. The lines meeting and crossing could look something like this conceptual illustration (by DP):
Here is part of FOA's famous front lawn dump:
"My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed… hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash… because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn!"
So their thesis is that the Fed buys almost all of today's bank assets (debt) for cash, but then during this process the banks, now almost fully reserved, start lending again and a new credit cycle begins without a systemic collapse. And what this will do to prices is deliver "a higher General Price Level" and "a CPI rate higher than the rate at which the GPL rises." I emailed with Paul about this call being much more tame than some things he has written in the past and he wrote back that he thinks my hyperinflation projection is "a very fat-tailed event" while they are "trying to be much more moderate in [their] projections."
I hope to show in this post that avoiding this "fat-tailed event" is the most unlikely scenario. It is not just about the gap between unreserved deposits and base money and bank levering/de-levering cycles. It is about a currency that has reached the end of its timeline when the removal of structural support (an FOA term) meets the largest spending/dollar-emitting machine the world has ever known. But first, here's a more complete excerpt from their paper, or you can read the whole thing at the link:
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