caseyresearch.com / By Jeff Clark / August 27, 2012
Some investors lamented that gold prices had been stuck in a rut for a long time. Others were confused. A few bailed. And some, including me, have been stocking up because we’re convinced prices won’t stay down forever.
In fact, based on the data I chart below, I believe the window of time to buy gold for less than $1,700 an ounce is very limited.
Here’s why. I examined gold’s three largest corrections since the bull market began in 2001, including how long it took to recover from those corrections and establish new highs. The conclusion that emerged is that the current lull in gold prices will almost certainly end soon, if it hasn’t already.
Gold set a record on September 5, 2011 at $1,895 an ounce (London PM Fix) and to date has fallen as low as $1,531 (December 29, 2011), a decline of 19.2%. Gold has tested that level several times since but never broke below it. In order to determine how long it might take to breach $1,895 again, I measured the time it took to mount new highs after big corrections in the past.
The following chart details the three largest corrections since 2001, and calculates how many weeks it took the gold price to a) breach the old high, and b) stay above that level.
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