Will Silver Do Better Than Gold?

http://news.silverseek.com/



Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 10^th February 2011.

Many analysts are convinced that silver is going to outperform gold this year and for years to come. Are they right?

We don't know. What we do know is that: a) most of the recent silver-related commentary has focused on silver's upside potential and has not mentioned, or has glossed over, silver's downside risk, and b) silver bulls are generally ignoring the relationship between the silver/gold ratio and the economic growth theme. These two points go together in that silver's downside risk is linked to the potential for the 'growth trade' to collapse.

By way of further explanation we present, below, a weekly chart comparing the silver/gold ratio with the copper/gold ratio (in green) and the S&P500 Index (in blue). This chart shows that over the past 12 years silver has out-performed gold during periods when copper has been out-performing gold and when the broad stock market has been trending upward; in other words, when growth-oriented speculations have been gaining in popularity. The chart also shows that silver has performed very poorly relative to gold when growth-oriented speculations have been falling in popularity, especially when there has been a financial/banking crisis.

The chart's message is that you should be intermediate-term bullish on silver relative to gold if you are bullish on the economy, and intermediate-term bearish on silver relative to gold if you are bearish on the economy and/or the financial system. Strangely, though, some of the most vociferous silver bulls are bearish on the economy and the financial system.

We have always said that silver stood a good chance of out-performing gold over the course of the long-term precious metals bull market, simply because silver is a vastly smaller market than gold and therefore has the potential to make disproportionately large gains in response to increasing investment demand. However, we have also said that we favoured gold over silver due to gold's lesser downside risk. It's the risk relative to the potential reward -- not just the potential reward -- that determines the merits of a speculation. The risk is that a future banking crisis and/or major deflation scare will have the same effect on the silver/gold ratio as the last three such episodes (the early-1990s, the early-2000s, and 2007-2008), when silver cheapened relative to gold to the point where it took 80-100 ounces of silver to purchase an ounce of gold.

If you believe that there is almost no chance of a banking crisis or major deflation scare happening over the next few years then you should definitely favour silver over gold.




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許多分析家相信，今年和今後幾年，銀會超越黃金。 他們的這樣預測是否準確呢？ 我們不知道。

但我們所知道的是：（A）大部分的近期關於銀的的評論都著重銀的上升潛力，而沒有提及銀的風險，和（B）銀的好友普遍忽視銀與金之間的比例，和經濟增長的環境。

以上兩點是很重要的，因為銀的下調風險是與經濟下滑有很密切的關係 。

以下的這個週線圖表就可以解釋這個關係。這個圖表顯示銀與金(黑紅色)，和銀與銅的比率（綠色），與及S&P500指數（藍色）。

此圖表顯示，過去12年來，每當銅價跑贏金價，而股市亦同時做好的話，銀價也會跑贏金價。換言之，當經濟有增長，或當一般投資者對經濟前景看好，銀就會比金更有優勢。

以上的圖表還顯示，當風險情況上升的時候，白銀的表現就比黃金差得很多，尤其是當出現任何金融或銀行危機 。

圖表的訊息就是，如果你看好經濟的前景，那麼你亦應該看好白銀，而看淡黃金。相反，如果你看淡經濟的前景，那麼你亦應該看淡白銀，而看好黃金。

不過，奇怪的就是，一些白銀的大好友亦同時對經濟的前景看得很淡 。

我們一直說，在長期的貴金屬牛市之下，銀會較黃金有更佳的表現。原因很簡單，就是因為銀的市場比黃金的市場細得多，因此只要投資需求增加，白銀就會有機會不成比例地獲取高回報。

但是，我們也說過，我們比較喜歡黃金，因為黃金的下跌風險較白銀低 。

當我們評估一個投資或投機的優劣時，我們除了看它的回報，還要看它的風險，然後才作決定 。

現時的風險就是，未來的銀行危機，或經濟衰退恐慌會對白銀有不利的後果，正如過去的三次危機一樣（20世紀90年代初，2000年代早期，和2007-2008年）。當時白銀就是對黃金下滑至80-100兌1 的白銀與黃金比率 。

如果您認為銀行危機，或通縮恐慌，在未來幾年都沒有機會發生的話，那麼你當然有理由選擇白銀，多於選擇黃金。