2012年5月15日星期二

Peter Schiff: Market-Crushing Treasury Collapse To Hit Around 2013

《福布斯》採訪Peter Shiff,他稱美聯儲主席伯南克是“人民的第一公敵”。他認為伯南克刻意壓低美國國債收益率長達3年之久,已經製造出一個堪比2008年房地產泡沫的債券市場大泡沫,2013年該泡沫行將破裂,大量持有債券的銀行系統會再次崩潰,而美國銀行在壓力測試時並未考慮債券價格大幅下挫的情形。

Peter Schiff是美國少數提前預警2008年危機的投資家,他認為美國所謂的“解槓桿”進程完全是欺世之談,國債暴增其實就是變相的全民負債急劇升高,負債與GDP比值惡化情形更勝於2008年。國債收益率疊創歷史新低,已處於降無可降的地步,債市虛火綿延3年之久。 2013年債市崩潰,則美債和美元必然大幅貶值。 



http://www.forbes.com

Peter Schiff, the divisive investor and commentator that predicted the subprime/real-estate bubble, is forecasting a U.S. dollar and bond crisis over the next couple of years.  Schiff blames intervened bond markets, where rates are artificially and excessively low, and expects the coming crisis to blow the 2008-9 financial crisis out of the water.

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 1:  Federal Reserve Cha...
Schiff considers Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke "public enemy number one" - (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Ben Bernanke at the helm, is holding markets by the hand.  Bernanke, himself a divisive figure, has done all he can to push interest rates lower, using quantitative easing and Operation Twist once nominal rates had hit the zero-range.  While many believe ultra-loose monetary policy is dangerous, Schiff thinks it will lead to a catastrophic correction.
“The more you delay it, the bigger it will be,” Schiff tells Forbes in a phone interview Tuesday, “so we need to raise interest rates during the recession to confront the inefficiencies.”  Schiff, who runs Euro Pacific Capital and is seen by many as permanently bearish, argues that government-intervened bond markets are leading to massive distortions in capital allocation that have only been exacerbated as the Fed reacted to the last couple of recessions.
Recent market behavior supports his thesis that massive dislocations in bond yields distort reality.  Ten-year Treasury yields had traded in a narrow-range for about four months, on the presumption that a weak economy would continue to count on Bernanke’s monetary support (particularly of the bond market).  On March 13, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledged an improved recovery, but did not mention more quantitative easing, or bond purchases, were on the way, sparking a violent sell-off in Treasuries (exacerbated by JPMorgan’s dividend announcement the same day, which triggered a rally in financial stocks) as market players fled a bond rally they considered fixed by the Fed.
While Bernanke delivered calm to bond markets on Monday in a speech that promised “continued accommodative policies,” the violence of the sell-off speaks to Schiff’s argument.  “We consume more than we produce and we borrow abroad, but we are never going to be able to pay them back,” says Schiff.
The controversial investor and commentator expects a massive crash over the next two to three years as a bond market bubble, coupled with the U.S. dollar, collapses under the weight of excessive debt.  Schiff, like PIMCO’s Bill Gross, doesn’t believe in the current deleveraging cycle.  While households have reduced their leverage, government debt has ballooned on the back of stimulus programs, but, argued Schiff, the government’s debt is the people’s debt, thus overall leverage has actually increased.
In CNBC interview Wednesday, Schiff called Bernanke “public enemy number one” and warned that banks would crash if the bond market collapses.  While most major banks, including the likes of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and even Bank of America, passed the Fed’s strenuous stress tests, which stipulated a massive decline in equity and real estate prices, Schiff still believes they’re in trouble.  “The Fed didn’t ask the banks to stress test a big drop in the bond market because that’s what coming, and the banks would fail that,” he said.
Schiff cites the rising price of gold as evidence that U.S. dollar debasement, and inflation, are higher than the Fed, and consumer price data, suggest.  Following the Austrian economic tradition, Schiff believes that only a massive correction, via a deflationary recession, can set the system straight.  “In a deflation, real wages will rise because the cost of goods will fall faster,” he says, adding that the government should accompany the correction by lowering taxes and cutting back on regulation.
While Schiff does suggest saving in gold, he understands the limitations of the investment.  “If you invest in gold, then the economy doesn’t benefit from savings, I want investment to go to plants and equipment.”
The system, he argues, is as broken as it was before the financial crisis.  Schiff, who was very prescient in his forecast and prediction of how the subprime debacle would filter through to the broader real estate market and thus bring down the economy, believes complacency is widespread.  “All of the people who were 100% wrong [back in ‘08] are saying that everything’s OK [now]. I am telling them they didn’t solve the problem and are making it so much worse.”

Schiff, who knows how to build his case, concludes it thusly: “I didn’t get lucky, I just understood the problem, and we are going to get another big one coming soon.”

沒有留言: