Peter Schiff是美國少數提前預警2008年危機的投資家，他認為美國所謂的“解槓桿”進程完全是欺世之談，國債暴增其實就是變相的全民負債急劇升高，負債與GDP比值惡化情形更勝於2008年。國債收益率疊創歷史新低，已處於降無可降的地步，債市虛火綿延3年之久。 2013年債市崩潰，則美債和美元必然大幅貶值。
http://www.forbes.com
Peter Schiff, the divisive investor and commentator that predicted the
subprime/real-estate bubble, is forecasting a U.S. dollar and bond
crisis over the next couple of years. Schiff blames intervened bond
markets, where rates are artificially and excessively low, and expects
the coming crisis to blow the 2008-9 financial crisis out of the water.
Schiff considers Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke "public enemy number one" - (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Ben Bernanke
at the helm, is holding markets by the hand. Bernanke, himself a
divisive figure, has done all he can to push interest rates lower, using
quantitative easing and Operation Twist once nominal rates had hit the
zero-range. While many believe ultra-loose monetary policy is
dangerous, Schiff thinks it will lead to a catastrophic correction.
“The more you delay it, the bigger it will be,” Schiff tells Forbes
in a phone interview Tuesday, “so we need to raise interest rates
during the recession to confront the inefficiencies.” Schiff, who runs
Euro Pacific Capital and is seen by many as permanently bearish, argues
that government-intervened bond markets are leading to massive
distortions in capital allocation that have only been exacerbated as the
Fed reacted to the last couple of recessions.
Recent market behavior supports his
thesis that massive dislocations in bond yields distort reality.
Ten-year Treasury yields had traded in a narrow-range for about four
months, on the presumption that a weak economy would continue to count
on Bernanke’s monetary support (particularly of the bond market). On
March 13, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
acknowledged an improved recovery, but did not mention more quantitative
easing, or bond purchases, were on the way, sparking a violent sell-off
in Treasuries (exacerbated by JPMorgan’s dividend announcement
the same day, which triggered a rally in financial stocks) as market
players fled a bond rally they considered fixed by the Fed.
While Bernanke delivered calm to bond markets on Monday in a speech
that promised “continued accommodative policies,” the violence of the
sell-off speaks to Schiff’s argument. “We consume more than we produce
and we borrow abroad, but we are never going to be able to pay them
back,” says Schiff.
The controversial investor and commentator expects a massive crash
over the next two to three years as a bond market bubble, coupled with
the U.S. dollar, collapses under the weight of excessive debt. Schiff,
like PIMCO’s Bill Gross,
doesn’t believe in the current deleveraging cycle. While households
have reduced their leverage, government debt has ballooned on the back
of stimulus programs, but, argued Schiff, the government’s debt is the
people’s debt, thus overall leverage has actually increased.
In CNBC interview
Wednesday, Schiff called Bernanke “public enemy number one” and warned
that banks would crash if the bond market collapses. While most major
banks, including the likes of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and even Bank of America,
passed the Fed’s strenuous stress tests, which stipulated a massive
decline in equity and real estate prices, Schiff still believes they’re
in trouble. “The Fed didn’t ask the banks to stress test a big drop in
the bond market because that’s what coming, and the banks would fail
that,” he said.
Schiff cites the rising price of gold as evidence that U.S. dollar
debasement, and inflation, are higher than the Fed, and consumer price
data, suggest. Following the Austrian economic tradition, Schiff
believes that only a massive correction, via a deflationary recession,
can set the system straight. “In a deflation, real wages will rise
because the cost of goods will fall faster,” he says, adding that the
government should accompany the correction by lowering taxes and cutting
back on regulation.
While Schiff does suggest saving in gold, he understands the
limitations of the investment. “If you invest in gold, then the economy
doesn’t benefit from savings, I want investment to go to plants and
equipment.”
The system, he argues, is as broken as it was before the financial
crisis. Schiff, who was very prescient in his forecast and prediction
of how the subprime debacle would filter through to the broader real
estate market and thus bring down the economy, believes complacency is
widespread. “All of the people who were 100% wrong [back in ‘08] are
saying that everything’s OK [now]. I am telling them they didn’t solve
the problem and are making it so much worse.”
Schiff, who knows how to build his case, concludes it thusly: “I didn’t get lucky, I just understood the problem, and we are going to get another big one coming soon.”
Schiff, who knows how to build his case, concludes it thusly: “I didn’t get lucky, I just understood the problem, and we are going to get another big one coming soon.”
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