金價短期急漲,實物逼倉?

短期漲勢過猛，全因8月是COMEX的黃金交割月，目前要交割的數量總計超過1百萬盎司，其實也不多，就30多噸。可見SPDR動不動就加減幾十噸，那純粹是紙面合約。交易所1個月要提貨30噸都能讓價格大漲100美元以上，ETF價格風平浪靜的怎麼做得到大手筆買入？

The front delivery month of August is extremely interesting to watch.  The OI for August fell from 7986 to 6319 for a loss of 1667 contracts.
(昨天八月未平倉合約減少1667份，但其中只有360份是現金交割，實物交割了1307份，1份是100盎司，看起來很多人只要實物，覺醒了？)

We had deliveries on Friday of 1307 so we lost only 360 contracts to cash settlements.  It looks like many are digging in and will only accept metal.

Early this morning, I felt the Dow was in for real trouble and sure enough the Dow fell by 512 points despite the constant support by the Plunge Protection Team.  There were huge developments over in Italy and Spain  which I will describe in detail in my commentary.  The VIX which is a measure of volatility and risk, skyrocketed today.  Let's travel over to the comex and see the damage today.  Also remember that the jobs number is tomorrow and the bankers surely had their hand in shorting many gold and silver shares/and metal ahead of this report.


The price of gold fell $12.20 to $1650.50 even though it hit $1680.00 prior to London closing.  The stock market was crashing around this time and no doubt margin calls were flying all over the place and gold was sold to cover margins.  The bankers used this opportunity to cover many of their shorts.  Silver fell by $2.73
to $38.98.  Silver fell with the Dow as it is also perceived as an industrial metal and would be hurt in an economic fallout.

The total gold comex OI fell by almost 3000 contracts to 526,679 from yesterday's level of 529,403.
The front delivery month of August saw its OI fall from 5681 to 5106 for a loss of 575 contracts.  We had 480 deliveries so we lost only 95 contracts to cash settlements.  It looks like our gold longs wish to remain resolute and wait for metal or a better offer.  The next delivery month is October and here the OI dropped marginally to 25,499.  All eyes will be on the big delivery month of December and here the OI also dropped marginally to 383,241 from 385,102.  The estimated volume at the gold comex today registered 290,871 which was huge.  The confirmed volume yesterday was also very high at 239,342.

The total silver comex reverted back to its normal channel at 119,981 from 120,385.  The front options exercised month of August mysteriously saw its OI climb from 25 to 40 despite one notice for delivery.
We thus gained some silver oz standing and lost nothing to cash settlements.  The next big delivery month is September and here the OI rose from 58,468 to 59,490.  The estimated volume at the silver comex was also extremely high at106,433.  The confirmed volume yesterday was also very good at 85,979.

Inventory Movements and Delivery Notices for Gold:  August 4.2011:

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	nil
Withdrawals fromCustomer Inventory	96 (Manfra)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	7300 (Brinks)
No of oz served (contracts)  today	16300 oz  (163)
No of oz to be served  (notices)	494,300 (4943 )
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	569,500 (5695)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	nil
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	132,759

The activity within the gold complex was quite tame.
We had a tiny 96 oz of gold removed from Manfra.
We also had one of those perfectly round 7300 oz of gold received as a deposit to a customer
and the vault:  none other than Brinks which seems to be the recipient of these kind of deposits whether it is a dealer or a customer.

Now get a load of this.  The 7300 oz of gold received from the customer is then leased to the dealer.
There is another adjustment over at JPMorgan where 61,374 oz of gold is repaid back to a customer from the dealer JPMorgan.

Thus the registered gold falls back to 1.82 million oz.

The comex folk notified us that a total of 163 notices were filed for 16300 oz. The number of notices filed so far this month total 5695 for 569500 oz.  To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing (5106) and subtract out today's deliveries (163) which leaves me with 4943 notices or 494300 oz left to be served upon.

Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this delivery month is as follows:

569500 oz (served)  +  494,300 oz (to be served)  =   1,063,000 oz.  We lost 9500 oz to cash settlements today.

And now for silver 

First the chart:

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	nil
Withdrawals fromCustomer Inventory	975,826 (Brinks,HSBC,Scotia)
Deposits to theDealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	516,406  (JPM,Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts)	nil  (0)
No of oz to be served  (notices)	200,000  (40)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1,505,000  (301)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	nil
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month	1,805,233

Lots of activity inside the silver comex.

Today we had the following deposits:

1.  66,003 oz into JPMorgan
2. 450,403 oz into Scotia.

total deposit:  516,406 oz

We had the following withdrawals:

824,444 (Brinks)
100,309 oz (HSBC)
51,073 oz (Scotia)

total withdrawal:  975,826.

we had one adjustment of 4997 oz of silver leaving the dealer repaying a customer.
The new registered silver totals 27.331 million oz.
The total silver (registered and eligible) =  105.296 million oz.

Today the comex folk notified us that zero notices were served and thus the total number of notices filed so far this month remains at 301 or 1,5005,000 oz.  To obtain what is left to be served upon I take the OI standing (40 ) and subtract out today's deliveries (0) which leaves me with 40 notices to be served upon or 200,000 oz.

Thus the total number of silver oz standing in this non delivery month is as follows:

1,505,000 (oz served)  +  200,000 oz (to be served) =  1,705,000
we gained 16 contracts of silver standing or 80,000 oz.

end

Let us now proceed to our ETF's SLV and GLD and then our physical gold and silver funds:

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.

 The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

Thus a default at either of the LBMA, or Comex will trigger a catastrophic event.

First GLD inventory changes:  August 4.2011.

Total Gold in Trust

Tonnes: 1,286.30

Ounces:41,355,739.38

Value US$:
69,430,233,934.91

Total Gold in Trust: aug 3.2011:

Tonnes: 1,286.30

Ounces:41,355,739.38

Value US$:
69,007,098,493.89

we neither gained nor lost any gold into the GLD vaults.

Now let us see inventory movements in the SLV:  August 4:2011

Ounces of Silver in Trust	321,843,340.800
Tonnes of Silver in Trust	10,010.45

August 3.2011:

we gained a massive 4.926 million oz of paper silver deposited into the SLV today.

Has anybody seen any SEC regulators lately?  

1. Central Fund of Canada: it is trading at negative 2.3  percent to NAV in usa funds and negative 2.2% in NAV for Cdn funds.  ( aug 4.2011).  

2. Sprott silver fund  (PSLV):  Premium to NAV lowered  to a  positive 19.43% to  NAV August 4.2011
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rose slightly to a  2.09% to NAV  August 4.2011).

Note:  they attacked the central fund of Canada but not Sprott.

Note:  Sprott silver still commands a huge premium in silver.  I guess that is the price one must pay in order to acquire a huge amount of silver.

end.

Let us see the big stories which caused the massive fall in the Dow.

This started the Dow collapsing as the Italian stock market was suspended.(zero hedge)

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/