Ray Dalio: "Global monetary order is breaking."
Dalio thinks the US and the allies are losing trust in one another, so central banks don't want to hold the US bonds.
This is why commodities are skyrocketing, and it's not going to reverse anytime soon.
His advice? Buy gold.
The official announcement from China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) may appear somewhat technical or understated, likely to avoid immediate international backlash; but it effectively tightens oversight by requiring government licenses and limiting exports primarily to a select list of 44 approved large-scale companies for 2026–2027. This elevates silver to strategic material status (similar to rare earths), with requirements like minimum annual production capacity (e.g., 80 tons) and substantial credit lines, sidelining smaller and mid-tier exporters.
U.S. mainstream media and certain bullion bank “affiliates” have downplayed or misrepresented the policy’s impact, framing it as routine or negligible. That’s actually beneficial for those paying close attention. Our edge in this high-stakes battle comes from seeing through the noise and understanding the real supply dynamics at play.
This is mortal combat in the precious metals arena: China’s dominance in refined silver production (60–70% of global supply) means these restrictions are already contributing to physical tightness, surging premiums, and upward pressure on prices amid persistent global deficits and booming industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics, AI hardware, military).
Knowledge is power here—stay sharp.
THE BIG BREAKOUT SIGNAL
✅ Silver smashed through its long-term ceiling versus gold in November 2025.
➡️ That exact spread breakout triggered massive vertical runs in the past—like copper quadrupling in 2005.
🔥 Oliver: "We're in one of these 'move to new reality' phases... much of it is going to occur in a few quarters."
THE TIMELINE & SPEED
✅ The clock started at the November close—gains accelerate from December onward.
📈 Pullbacks are shrinking from months to weeks to hours—things are speeding up dramatically.
⚡ "It's going to go vertical... likely to take your breath away."
THE PRICE TARGETS
✅ Base case: Silver heads into the couple hundreds soon.
🚀 Upside potential: $300 to $500 per ounce, possibly by Q2 2026.
💥 With gold potentially at $8,000 (an 8-fold move seen twice before), silver at 3-6% of gold hits $240-$480—right in Oliver's zone.
WHY NOW? THE BIG PICTURE DRIVERS
✅ Silver was compressed for half a century in a $4-$50 range—manipulation created massive pent-up energy.
➡️ When barriers break, it unleashes "panic on the upside."
🌍 Monetary crisis brewing: T-bond market failing, fiat in jeopardy, central banks fleeing to real assets.
📉 Bond panic could trigger a "nuclear event" forcing massive printing—gold & silver explode as real money.
THE WARNING & OPPORTUNITY
✅ Most people still doubt—looking at arithmetic charts and calling tops after doubling.
❌ Oliver: Buy the 10-15% dips anyway; history shows they're rocket fuel.
🔄 "If you see a 10-15% drop... buy it anyway. You're way ahead of the game."
THE BOTTOM LINE
Michael Oliver sees silver entering a historic, sudden repricing phase driven by technical breakout, monetary crisis, and compressed energy—potentially rocketing to $300-$500 in months, not years.
Silver isn't slowing down—it's just getting started. Don't get left behind in the old reality.
HT: YouTube ITM TRADING, INC @Oliver_MSA
#Silver #PreciousMetals #Gold #MonetaryCrisis #SilverSqueeze #Investing #BullMarket
尋找市場的底層邏輯
在投資世界中，我們常在尋找一種能指引長線方向的「羅塞塔石碑」。這張圖表對比了**黃金（抗通膨資產）與標普 500 指數（風險資產）**的比值。這個比率反映了資本在「實質價值」與「企業增長」之間的流動。當比率築底回升，通常預示著財富轉移的大週期開始。
核心觀察：歷史上的三次大崩盤
圖表回溯了過去一百年，每當這個比率出現特定底部形態時，股市隨後都迎來了災難性的表現：
1. 事件 #1 (1929年 V型底)： 著名的經濟大蕭條。股市崩盤後，整整花了 24 年才回升至當初的高點。
2. 事件 #2 (1960年代末 U型底)： 經歷了兩次暴跌（35% 與 50%），結果是股市整整 12 年原地踏步。
3. 事件 #3 (2000年 V型底)： 網路泡沫與金融海嘯的連環打擊，同樣導致股市在接下來的 12 年內毫無進展。
關鍵轉折：我們正處於「事件 #4」？
圖表最引人注目的是右側的現狀。我們正處於一個巨大的「U型底」，且正試圖突破一條長達 40 年的下降壓力線。
• 技術形態： 比率已經築底完成，正準備向上噴發。
• 作者預測： 若歷史重演，標普 500 指數可能面臨至少 35% 的修正，甚至更多。
• 財富轉向： 圖表中的黑色箭頭大膽預言，黃金相對於股市將會有一段「非常漫長」的跑贏期。
這張圖表並非預言明天就會崩盤，而是在提醒我們大循環的轉變。過去十幾年，量化寬鬆讓股市成為唯一的選擇；但在通膨黏性與地緣政治波動的背景下，資金似乎正在重回「實質資產」的懷抱。
