2011年7月19日星期二

Turk: 金價破2000美元, 白銀破50美元的時刻將會很快來臨

http://kingworldnews.com/

With gold hitting new all-time highs in all major currencies and silver breaking above $40, today King World News interviewed James Turk.  When asked about the action in gold Turk stated, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $2,000 (gold) very quickly.  It’s just a question of how the European bank crisis unfolds or the US debt limit unfolds or any one of these number of trouble spots around the world unfolds.  Any one of those could light a fire under the gold market and you could see $2,000 very, very quickly.  You could also see silver over $50 very quickly.  That’s the way the trend is going so just position yourself and ride the trend.”
"It’s all very positive Eric, it’s still within my bigger point of view that the summer is going to be spectacular.  It has started out that way and I still think there is a lot more left.  There are really two types of gold buyers, you’ve got the accumulators and you have the momentum players. 

What the London Trader (KWN interview earlier today) was saying is that the accumulators have basically been out of the market, which is reflected by the discount to spot price on a number of the Asian markets where a lot of the physical accumulation takes place.

Now the interesting thing is you can drive prices higher if either one of those players are in the market, and while the accumulators are out, the momentum buyers are in there.  I still think these momentum buyers are going to take gold and silver much higher and that’s basically what the London Trader was referring to by saying there was going to be a lot of short covering once we get over $40 (in silver) and $1,600 (in gold), which is what we did today on a closing basis in New York.

People are looking for the safety of gold and exiting national currencies.  Exiting the dollar, exiting the euro, exiting the British pound, gold is at record highs against all three of those currencies.”

When asked about Felix Zulauf’s KWN interview where he discussed the simultaneous inflation and deflation Turk said, “If you look in terms of the dollar we are actually seeing inflation, prices are going up all around us.  But if you actually look at prices in terms of gold, prices are going down.  So you’ve got deflation when prices are measured in gold and you’ve got inflation when prices are measured for the dollar.  

We’re in a 1930’s type of situation with regards to deflation, if you measure that deflation in terms of gold.  Gold’s purchasing power went up in the 1930‘s as the huge debts that were accumulated during the boom years of the 1920’s were eventually reconciled.....
“They were either repaid or written off as bad loans.  It’s the same thing that’s going on now, the only difference now is that the dollar is no longer tied to gold as it was back in the 1930’s.

My view is that we still have a long way to go before this bust that we have been in plays itself out.  This boom and bust cycle that we go through in monetary history, you have to look at it from a big picture point of view because it doesn’t happen over weeks or months, it happens over decades.  

For example, in the 1920’s you had the boom, you had the bust in the ’30’s.  In the ’50’s and ’60’s you had the boom, you had the bust in the ’70’s.  In the ’80’s and the ‘90s you had the boom and we are currently in a bust, and this bust is not going to be over until all of the bad loans that were made in the ’80’s and in the ’90’s are eventually reconciled. 

They will be reconciled in one of two ways, they will either be repaid or they will be written off.  While we are going through this financial bust, people should avoid financial assets and focus on tangibles.  That’s the way you are going to get through this bust with as much of your wealth intact as possible.”

When asked about Ben Davies $2,000 target on gold within 4 months Turk responded, “Maybe that $2,000 Ben Davies has talked about is going to be happening pretty soon.  All we need is a little bit of a fuse on any one of these monetary events going on around the world to just put a tidal wave of buying into the precious metals.
 
Because the market is so tight still, any kind of huge buying of physical metal is going to send these prices much higher.  Then if you add in what the London Trader is talking about, short-covering coming in, it’s got the potential for an upside explosion.”

本月黃金交割日還剩8個工作日,未來兩周金銀價可能猛漲

http://kingworldnews.com/

London Trader - Potential for Major Short Covering in Gold

With gold hitting new all-time highs and silver hovering around $40, a trader out of London told King World News today, “The all important thing to watch is the pit close (Comex).  If we get a pit close today in the US above either $1,600 gold or $40 silver, then you are going to see some huge capitulation by the shorts.  $40 silver is the trigger, there is a significant amount of money which did not want to enter the silver market until it cleared $40.”
“So you essentially have two critical factors to watch if we get a strong close today in silver.  A close today above $40 leaves those stops highly vulnerable to getting tripped (they will cover their shorts).  In the meantime you are also going to get funds who have been out of the silver market popping back in once it closes above $40.  These two competing buyers could create a quick and somewhat violent short-term move to the upside.

Right now silver is looking very bullish because the open interest is so small.  It appears there is a lot more room on the upside for silver vs gold because of the current structure, but I am not saying gold is anywhere near the top. 

A close above $1,600 on gold, similar to silver closing over $40, would create a huge bunch of short-covering.  The commercials have been adding short positions in gold, but should we get a close above $1,600, I think you will find the smaller of those shorts are going to start covering their shorts because it’s going to be too much pain.  This could result in a $50 move overnight. 

There is plenty of physical demand, no one is letting up....
“but there has been a slight reduction in demand out of Asia as the price of gold has been rising recently.  There have been a few discounts going on since gold pierced $1,580 (US), but nothing significant.  However, silver demand out of Asia has been staying extremely strong.

Don’t forget we have option expiration in gold taking place in eight working days.  There are about 2.3 million ounces of short bets sitting at $1,600 and currently there are only about 1.5 million ounces in registered inventory.  If these call holders in options, and there are still about 24,000 of them as of Friday, if even a chunk of those stand for delivery you will see some real fireworks to the upside.

You can expect war at that point because that’s too big a bet by a couple of small entities, and even though they will shoot themselves in the foot on a short-term basis, they will not be able to come up with the metal without driving the price of gold through the roof.  So I would say expect a bit of a war at the $1,600 level as we hit option expiration and shortly thereafter.

So prices could explode to the upside and I think silver could easily jump up $2 or $3 from here in the blink of an eye.  Again, if we get a close above $40, that kind of short-covering, plus new investment, we could get $2 or $3 to the upside easily in one session.  I would add that this would also cause additional pain for anyone on the wrong side of that trade.”

金價首破1600美元 連升11日創30年紀錄

http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2011/07/19071410477491.shtml



國際金價週一突破1600美元/盎司的紀錄新高,帶動白銀展開新一輪上漲行情,站上40美元上方。在歐債危機持續蔓延、以及美國債務違約風險上升的背景下,全球投資者擔憂情緒加劇成為支撐黃金價格上漲的重要原因。在國內,市場對於黃金儲備匱乏的擔憂也在上升。
截至昨日北京時間20:06,紐約黃金期貨8月合約報1603.5美元/盎司,再度刷新紀錄。從日K線上看,金價已連續11個交易日上漲,是1980年7月8日以來最長的連漲紀錄。
在剛剛過去的一周,紐約期金周漲幅達3.15%。另據世界黃金協會(WGC)在最新發布的二季度黃金投資報告中指出,二季度黃金表現超越多數其他資產類別,且13.4%的平均波動率遠低於20年平均水平15.8%。二季度期間黃金創下紀錄新高,季末收盤時較一季度收盤價上漲4.6%。二季度平均金價為1506.13美元/盎司,較一季度均價高出8.6%。
與此同時,市場持有黃金量也在持續增加,上周全球最大的黃金上市交易基金(ETF)——SPDR黃金持倉量大幅增加31 噸左右,表明投資人信心持續回歸黃金市場。統計還顯示,黃金ETF二季度持倉共增加45.6噸,至2155.3噸,創下2010年二季度以來最大增幅。其中,歐洲黃金ETF持倉增加29.2噸,主要是因為歐洲債務危機促使投資者買入黃金分散風險。
同期金條和金幣的購買同樣強勁。截至二季度末,紐約期貨市場投機性淨多頭倉位略高於一季度末時的水平。
目前,各國央行2011年上半年買入黃金總量已超過2010年全年,市場預計中國儲備黃金的需求更是異常強烈。
國泰君安總經濟師、首席經濟學家李迅雷更在昨日表示,目前我國黃金儲備按1595美元/盎司計,6月末黃金儲備佔外匯儲備之比只有1.69%,實在太低。同樣的出口大國德國,該比例是65%,美國則更高。俄羅斯和印度等都在5%以上。所以,中國假如在10年前就將該比例確定至5%,至少目前黃金儲備可以比現在多兩倍。
國際知名經濟學家加特曼近日也表示,中國整體儲備中黃金所佔的比例“令人震驚的低”,但這種情況最終將得以改善。加特曼表示,中國將成為一個低調的、但持續的黃金買家,同時也是其他資產的賣家。除此之外別無選擇。但預計這一過程進行得很慢,約為幾年或幾十年,而非幾個星期或幾個月。
據世界黃金協會公佈的數據顯示,中國持有黃金儲備為1054.1噸,遠低於美國、德國和意大利等國的持有量。
自2003年以來,國家外匯管理局通過國內雜金提純以及國內市場交易等方式,中國黃金儲備共增加了454噸。在各國公佈的黃金儲備中,只有6個國家超過1000噸,中國排名世界第5。
渣打銀行分析報告表示,“接下來的5年內,即將投入運營的金礦少之又少。而現在各大央行的身份由原來的黃金淨售出者轉變為淨買入者,將導致黃金供應的進一步短缺。在我們看來,最終的結果將會是即使需求平穩上升,黃金市場也會出現嚴重短缺,供需如此不平衡,所以我們認為金價有潛力上漲到每盎司5000美元。”其中,目前中國的外匯儲備中的黃金佔比,如果想要達到世界平均水平11%,中國還要購買6000多噸的黃金,相當於全球整整兩年的黃金產量。

2011年7月18日星期一

「秋天彈升」提早來臨


金市的「秋天彈升」果真提早來臨!金價突破前歷史高位是發生在7月13日,即今年夏季最炎熱的三伏天開始的前一日,說它是Summer rally,比說Post-summer rally似更合適。
這次彈升實始於7月4日,至今連漲十個交易天,追平四十年前的最長上漲紀錄。從最近的低谷1478元(美元.下同)算起,到上周末創出的歷史新高價1594元,累計升幅高達116元。

事情還不止於此,用其他多種貨幣計算的金價也分別創出了歷來的新高,其中包括歐羅、英鎊、加元、印度盧比、南非蘭特、人民幣和港元等主要貨幣。黃金用它行動本身,給聯邦儲備局主席貝南奇一個強烈反諷,他剛發表過「Gold is NOT MONEY」的驚世偉論。
上 周三在美國國會金融服務委員會的會議上,貝南奇遭共和黨眾議員Ron Paul嚴厲質詢:「黃金是不是金錢?」貝南奇愣了一陣才回答說:「不是的。」Ron Paul接着追問:「哪為什麼中央銀行持有它?」貝答:「作為儲備。」Paul再問:「為什麼不持有鑽石?」貝沉默了幾秒,囁嚅道:「喔,這是一個傳 統。」
其後世事發展告訴我們,貝南奇並非全錯,黃金的確不就是金錢,它比金錢更值錢!
投機買盤再度入市
歐 洲國家主權債務危機升級,另一廂美國聯儲局暗示可能再度採取寬鬆的貨幣政策,美元欲升仍跌,在8月2日的期限前美國朝野就提高國債上限的談判進展緩慢,以 上等等消息支持着金市彈升。敝欄有幸在這些消息發生之前就告訴各位,金市可提供彈升的良好技術基礎,「秋天」有可能提早降臨。
現詳解上期說金市屆呈投機買盤再入市良機的問題。本月5日,期金市場的金商業者的淨沽倉量為20.2萬張合約,遠低於去年10月的30萬張,是近年低水平之一。其沽倉量對好倉量的比率亦低至2.14。與此同時,未平倉合約總量48.97萬張也是年內的低水平。
其後我們見到,至上周二大投機者的淨好倉量增升到19.75萬張,一周之內大增3.98萬張;至上周三未平倉合約總量回增至53.17萬張,較周前低谷大增4.19萬張。兩數據均說明投機買盤確在大規模重新入市。
在投機買盤再入市的帶動下,投資資金亦再入市,〈GLD〉的持金量到上周末回增至1236.01噸,較其四天前的低點大增30.6噸,有助推動金價大升。
不禁聯想起「索羅斯沽盡黃金資產」的14.7噸數量,這簡直不是一回事,對此大驚小怪的是不懂金市的人。
成功突破三角形
金市在7月初的再調整的低點不低於5月初的低點,這使走勢連第一個「一浪低於一浪」的情形都可避免,並使圖表上形成一個三角形。上周金價先後升破1558元和前高峰1577元,該三角形被完全成功向上突破。
按理論推算,金價第一個升幅目標為1599元,其後分別是1608元和1614元,更高目標指向1644元。而倒過來,前高點1577元和稍下的1558元成為新支持。以現時形勢看,金市有可能先上試上述第一、二個目標後再作調整。
銀市買家再入市的最佳時機其實比金市早一周出現,只是在5月受傷較大,故現時勇猛程度不及金市。
銀市圖表上只是出現次一級的中短期三角形向上突破,5月初的跌後反彈高點39.5元尚待升破,但支持點已分別上移至36.9元和37.8元,日後的回升目標及阻力分別為40.5元和42.2元。惟現可慶祝銀市已擺脫可蛻變成熊市的陰影了。
做一個「黃金牛市未完派」分子,不是靠主觀願望而成,是要靠客觀理論和現實環境造就的。

PS: 黃金的確不就是金錢,它比金錢更值錢!
這句話...要好好記住 !!

金銀大軍的夏季大反攻已經開始了

今年五月春夏之交的時候,美元利益集團為了挽救美元搖搖欲墜的頹勢,在中國和歐洲兩大市場5月初長假閉市和隨後的一段時間,用擊斃拉登,活捉IMF總裁卡恩,炮打“歐豬”五國, 拉抬美國股市,集體唱空中國,連續八次調高白銀期貨交易準備金等多種手段,對以白銀和黃金為代表的大宗商品價格進行了一次多兵種,全方位,閃電式的立體聯合打擊,使白銀價格幾天之內暴跌35% ,黃金和其他大宗商品也隨之大跌。他們妄圖通過嚇倒全世界的金銀和其他大宗商品投資者,來提振美元。然而白銀價格並沒有像2008年那次崩盤近60%。從21美元被打回到9美元以下。那次用了近一年的時間才收復失地。而這次儘管美元集團攻勢極端兇猛, 幾十年所未見,但是金銀價格的防線卻在黃金每盎司1470美元,白銀每盎司33美元附近頑強抵抗,粉碎了空方多次狂轟濫炸,牢牢地守住了陣地。讓空方徹底打垮黃金白銀的計劃基本上破滅。這使人不禁聯想起二戰時納粹德國對蘇聯發動的閃電戰。讓人想起了斯大林格勒保衛戰。德軍在斯大林格勒久攻不下,閃電戰變成了持久戰。最後精疲力竭,蘇軍隨後發起了大反攻。徹底打敗了納粹德國。在中國革命戰爭年代,大革命既有轟轟烈烈的高潮,也有腥風血雨的低潮。毛主席教導我們說:“我們的同志,在困難的時候,要看到前途,要看到光明,要提高我們的勇氣。”在以美元為代表的西方債務貨幣體系逐漸走向滅亡的歷史進程中,黃金白銀就是前途,就是光明,就是希望,就是我們辛勤勞動成果的保障。從2000年開始,美元就已經踏上了最後滅亡的不歸路。黃金白銀則不斷創出新高。儘管道路是曲折的,但向上的大趨勢是十分明確的,毋庸置疑的。這是歷史的潮流,是任何力量也阻擋不了的。明確了這一點,我們就會在市場風云不斷變幻的時候,緊緊扭住實物金銀絕不放鬆,絕不動搖,逢低多進。 “千磨萬擊還堅勁, 任爾東西南北風”。不斷壯大實力。十年之後,功到自然成。這才是硬道理,這個道理要年年講, 月月講,要在心里扎下根。
就當前的形勢而言,金銀市場在經過了這次殘酷的打壓之後,已經重新振作起來了。黃金本週創出了1594美元的歷史新高。 1600大關近在咫尺。如果破了1600,很快就會挑戰1650大關。這是黃金市場著名分析專家Jim Sinclair 多年以前就設定的2011年金價目標。他原定這一價位在2011年1月達到。如果1月份達不到則會在夏天達到,而且會高的多。我多年來一直追踪他的黃金市場評論。 1650 價位可謂老生常談。但他從來沒有說過金價達到1650後會怎樣?網友不斷問這個問題,他總是回答等先到了1650後再說下一步的話。在這個問題上他一直表現得相當保守。使人感覺好像到了1650 就是黃金牛市到頂的時候了。本週Jim Sinclair 終於對黃金的在達到1650後的走勢提出了新的預測。他認為在1764價位會遇到空方拼死抵抗。一旦有效突破1764大關,黃金上升的大通道將暢通無阻。下一個目標將是1萬2千美元!儘管我個人認為黃金兌美元無頂可言。但從這位老先生那裡說出來,還是非同尋常。從2000年到現在,他從來只提黃金價格會到1650。絕口不提之後會怎樣。多少投資人等他的金口玉言,等了好多年,現在終於等到一個說法了!
本週另一位商品投資大師羅傑斯在接受采訪時,對金銀價格前景提出了他的想法。他認為只要美元的濫發不停地進行下去,黃金的上漲就沒有頂!在談到白銀的前景時,羅傑斯說未來六個月我不知道,但未來十年,白銀價格將漲,漲,漲!
對於白銀價格短期分析相當出色的牛人James Turk 本週發表預測認為,白銀收盤價一旦在38美元之上,則下一步就會達到讓市場心跳加速的45美元上下。本週五白銀站上了39美元。未來兩週白銀是否又要走出令人驚心動魄的行情呢?可能性是存在的。如果按真正的自由市場規律銀價早就該過了50美元。但是美元利益集團隨時都在干預市場。在阻擋這一歷史進程。具體價位的精確評估很難做到。每當市場沸騰時,美元利益集團總是會向市場這鍋開水中猛澆一瓢涼水,以便不讓開水漫了出來。不過只要美聯儲不停地往爐子裡添柴,水早晚總是要沸騰的。餃子是一定會煮熟的。不讓大家吃是不可能的!
還是那句老話,前途是光明的,道路是曲折的,銀價重返40是必然的,最後的偉大勝利是屬於“銀民”的!

實貨需求增 白銀光芒再現

財經路向透視


白銀雖然於5月遭遇滑鐵盧,但未見偃旗息鼓;今年下半年,白銀將穩步攀升,因為投資者購買白銀作為價格昂貴的黃金替代品。


儘管白銀價格飆60%於4月達至高峰後暴跌,但今年以來仍繼續以累積24%的漲幅,在貴金屬板塊中領漲,超越黃金11%的漲幅;對那些警戒通脹的投資者來說,白銀仍頗具魅力。


現貨銀於5月初升至每盎斯49.51美元的紀錄高位,之後大幅下挫33%;5月中旬以來,銀價一直處於32美元上方,而且受惠於美國低利率、歐羅區主權債務危機,以及印度和中國等主要新興經濟體的通脹憂慮,銀價於今年下半年預料將進一步上升。


黃金替代品


「主權債務危機的憂慮揮之不去、通脹壓力和經濟復蘇放緩,繼續促使投資者尋求避險資產,對沖不確定性。」輝立期貨分析師Ong Yi Ling說:「當黃金觸及紀錄高位時,投資者將再次開始搜尋較黃金便宜的替代品,白銀可能就是上選。」


現貨金本周連續九天上揚,觸及每盎斯1589.56美元的紀錄高位。輝立期貨預期,白銀價格將於今年下半年見43美元,巴克萊資本則預期,銀價於第三季將觸及40.2美元。


上海黃金交易所白銀交易量於5月13日飆升至225.7萬公斤,儘管7月13日時交易量降至475056公斤,仍是去年日均量151966公斤的三倍有餘。


「顯然實貨需求在目前的水平提供了強勁的支撐,其中主要為投資需求。」東京一名交易商說:「價格低於35美元應是大家樂於買入的水平」。分析師和交易商表示,亞洲對實貨金屬的偏好及ETF需求日益增加,支持了白銀的漲勢。


「囤積銀條的趨勢會持續積聚動能,因為亞洲投資者在貴金屬市場中偏好持有實貨而非期貨,尤其是中國的投資者。」澳新銀行商品研究部門全球主管Mark Pervan表示,白銀ETF基金的資金外流似乎像是要走向終結;未來數年,ETF需求增長的可能性將進一步推高白銀價格。


「過去四或五年內,ETF推高金價的經歷對於白銀來說,是一個新的動力要素。」Pervan說。


黃金兌白銀比率下跌至一個月低位41.4,脫離4月底所及32下方的低位,當時白銀價格升至紀錄高位。全球最大白銀ETF的iShares Silver Trust公布,截至7月13日的持倉量增加逾1%,至9633.95噸,較2006年4月推出時的持倉量增加了近14倍。全球最大黃金ETF的SPDR Gold Trust持倉量1225.41噸,較2004年推出時增加150倍;該基金在全球主要黃金持有者中位列第六,位居法國之後,中國之前。


下半年白銀價格預料將上漲,因為印度需求增長。就製造加工需求而論,該國是全球最大的黃金消費國和第四大白銀消費國;今年年初銀價急漲時印度散戶也曾瘋狂搶購銀條和銀幣。

2011年7月17日星期日

“Wow,What Is That A Chart Of!?”


I try very hard not to keep my work life and personal life separate. What I write about here and in the Sons of Liberty Academy,I very rarely talk about in my real life. The biggest reason why I don’t talk about it,is that it is too large of a subject to cover in such a short amount of time. Far too often,eyes roll into the back of the head of the unsuspecting civilian after about 2 minutes of talking.
This past week was a good week for all of us. Not only did we see gold breakout to to new nominal highs,we saw silver this week break the consolidation since the Silver Drive By Shooting. Yesterday,while I was finishing up on some work while redoing the Academy,I checked the Registered CRIMEX silver warehouse inventory and saw it was down another 500,000 ounces yesterday. As I was about to shut down the computer for the night,my lovely wife looked over my shoulder and saw the CRIMEX chart. She said,“Wow,what is that a chart of!?”I replied,“the silver inventory.”She said,“there is no denying that is going down.”Any chart showing such a steady drawn down in inventory like silver’s is not good. (Well at least for the silver shorts.)
The CRIMEX has lost 2/3rds of their registered inventory in three years.  The average withdrawal rate per day for the past 3 years was 55,000 ounces a day leaving the vaults. In the past 3 months,its rate has triple that at 155,000 ounces per day.

The most interesting aspect is that while the decline looks orderly and in a channel,the withdrawals are actually going at a fast pace against a smaller inventory. The rate of  decline of 55,000 ounces out of 87 million ounces was only .06% decline per day,now it is 6 times that rate with a much,much smaller inventory. As these withdrawals continue,the effective default date draws closer. The combination of the rapid decline and with smaller inventory has brought the projected default date where the CRIMEX can no longer keep this ruse going has dropped from November 2012 to January 1st 2012 only 5 1/2 months away. There have been months where we have seen 12 million ounces leave the vaults in no time at all. With hundreds of millions of paper contracts trading silver,only a small percentage of paper players need to stand for delivery to break the back of the CRIMEX.
Keep stacking,our Default Day is closer than we think. It could be a default of the CRIMEX or of the entire world economy. When it does happen,there will be no ‘do overs’. It will not matter at what price you bought or what form of physical silver you bought. The only thing that will matter is that you did buy while the rest of the world was high on debt.

http://dont-tread-on.me/wow-what-is-that-a-chart-of/