花開花落自有時

市況難測，隨機應變

 

　　現時各國仍只顧處理自己的經濟問題，難以寄望同心協力去防止危機進一步惡化。這種只顧自己利益及自我保護的心態，短期內亦難望改變。最終，困境只會一拖再拖，唯有到自己亦深受牽連而感同身受，所謂「同體大悲」時，或許才會願意從整體利益出發，施以援手共同解困，但屆時恐怕危機已深化至難以收拾的地步。目前更棘手的是，由於經濟問題往往牽涉社會及政治考慮，改善經濟措施最終能否跨越有關障礙仍是未知之數。


　　預料未來一段頗長的時間，市場仍會反覆波動，面對這變幻「難測」的市況，投資者惟有隨機「應變」，力避進退失據。在這種情況下，投資已變身為難於掌握的冒險遊戲，但若轉念一想，與其耗費大量時間、金錢及精神在市場上不斷艱苦作戰，倒不如暫且休養生息、靜待再戰時機。

 

逆增上緣，轉危為機

 

　　在牛氣衝天的時候，時間就是金錢，但在這動盪不安的時勢，我們也可以嘗試改變投資策略，善用自己的時間和精神去作另類投資。我們可多投放資源在可以掌控的事情上，如自己的身體及精神健康、家人及朋友關係等，這些都是不可以用金錢來衡量，但又是我們最容易忽略的瑰寶。這樣我們就可以主動地轉危為機，即佛法所說的「逆增上緣」。


　　花開花落自有時，經濟亦逃不過盛衰循環的過程。只要我們能看破得失的空性（即隨緣變化的性質），不執著，做到「得亦不喜，失亦不憂」，便能達到得失也自在的心境。

　　同樣地，面對金融危機帶來的種種經濟損失及身心折騰，我們都可依循聖嚴法師的教導︰「面對它，接受它，處理它，放下它」。最後，願與大家分享無門慧開禪師的一首詩︰「春有百花秋有月，夏有涼風冬有雪，若無閒事掛心頭，便是人間好時節」，共勉之。

金價避不了險 兩天瀉9％ 專家：調整未完 只宜低吸

http://www.mpfinance.com/

【明報專訊】歐債危機升溫及美債被降級，資金一度蜂擁走入黃金及白銀避 險。但當美元一枝箭般上升時，原來貴金屬也避不了險。紐約期金上周五跌5.9%，創近5年來最大單日跌幅，兩天大跌9％，跌幅是1983年以來最大。到底 黃金能否繼續發揮避險功能，專家的說法紛紜，但即使想買，只宜分階段或候低吸納。

紐約商品交易所 的12月期金，上周整周急跌9.6%，期銀更狂瀉26.3%(圖)。美元大升，早前走入黃金的資金爭相逃出，紐約12月期金周五大跌101.9美元或 5.9%，收報每盎司1639.8美元，創自2006年以來最大的單日跌幅。期銀方面，紐約12月期銀上周五跌17.7%，收報30.101美元，創下有 史以來最大單日跌幅。

銀價單日跌17.7% 史上最傷
雖說過去一周金價跌幅破多年紀錄，但在100天線初步有支持，而且由09年初以來的大升市之中，金價跌至150天線總能回升(圖)，目前仍高於150天線的1578美元，未能斷言黃金牛市已死。

羅家聰：金價1600美元以下可吸

年初已唱淡港股的交通銀行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰，近期獨愛黃金，他昨天接受本報記者訪問時表示，金價近日急跌，相信只是「牛市中調整」，主要受美匯指數抽升影響，料或需再調整多1個月，並下試每盎司1400至1600美元，建議可於此區間收集。
羅家聰看好金價前景，料明年勢升穿2000美元，他指環球央行自金融海嘯後釋出大量流動性，巨大的通脹壓力已經形成。至於銀價走勢，他認為銀價短期或下試25至30美元，並可低吸，一年上望50美元。
同樣看好黃金的中大全球政治經濟社會科學碩士課程兼任講師黃元山表示，金價回調，與市場憧憬美國推出新一輪的量化寬鬆「落空」有關，但相信歐債問題難以解決，局勢最終令央行再大舉開動印鈔機，指黃金仍有其保值價值。

陸庭龍：抗通脹主題已失效

黃元山本月初接受本報專訪時曾表示，理想的組合有約10%應為黃金，他昨天重申此看法，並認為現可開始分階段收集。
早年愛儲黃金的恒生銀行(0011)私人銀行及信託服務主管陸庭龍，近期已改變看法，他昨天說黃金已累積大量升幅，市場擔心歐美將陷雙底衰退，商品價格大幅下跌，黃金抗通脹的主題將不復存在，不排除金價或失守1500美元，投資者不宜撈貨。

交易所加孖展 炒家狠沽套現 黃金突失寵兩日瀉 9%

 不要借貸,不要抄賣,只用閒錢

 踏石過河...有幾多眾生可明當中意義

 要買就買實物....其它方式持有金銀都只係紙上富貴....

股市大瀉，引發投資者被追收孖展，將手上黃金套現遂成為最方便的做法。　新華社

【本報綜合報道】全球股市上周大瀉，投資者接「奪命孖展 Call」的情況比比皆是，有指對冲基金大手沽出手上黃金套現平孖展，觸發金價勁跌。貴金屬市場禍不單行，芝加哥商品期貨交易所在上周五，突然宣佈調高黃 金及白銀的期貨孖展，令金銀價格跌勢加劇。消息公佈後，期金單日勁跌逾 100美元至每盎斯 1639.8美元，兩日內累積跌幅達 9.3%，創逾 28年來最大兩日跌幅。期銀跌得更誇張，單日跌幅昨已近 18%，創 32年最大跌幅。

全球股市上周蒸發逾 3.4億美元資產，股價急挫，引發投資者被追收孖展，將手上的黃金套現遂成為最方便的做法，亦拖累金價狠跌。資產管理公司 Pension Partners投資總監 Michael Gayed表示，在環球性追孖展的情況下，黃金成為了最佳的套現資產。

銀價今年升幅蒸發

黃金突然失寵， RBC Global Futures貴金屬策略師 George Gero指出，部份對冲基金被迫沽出黃金以支付孖展，而其他投資者眼見金價扭轉升勢，亦紛紛出售黃金鎖定利潤。他續稱，有些歐洲國家的央行似乎正在出售黃 金，以增加現金流應付動盪市況，也是令黃金沽壓沉重的原因。
此外，芝加哥期貨商品交易所（ CME）上周五宣佈，將期金的基本按金調高 21%，至每張合約 11475美元；補倉按金則由 7000美元，調高至 8500美元。另外， CME亦同時將期銀基本按金及補倉按金調高 16%，分別至 24975美元及 1.85萬美元。
事實上，由於白銀有工業用途，擔心歐美國家經濟陷入雙底衰退，加上上海黃金交易所日前宣佈擴闊期銀合約的上下限價，令期銀跌勢更為誇張。現貨銀今年的升勢已完全蒸發，期銀兩日內累跌逾 25%，跌至每盎斯 30.101美元。

分析料屬短期調整

金價在過去 10年勁升 5倍，單就今年而言，其升幅亦有 16%。現貨金在上月創下每盎斯 1900.23美元的歷史新高，由歷史高位至上周五收報 1656.8美元，跌幅已有逾 12%。投資者現時最擔心，金價的升勢是否已經扭轉過來。
巴克萊資本駐紐約分析師 Suki Cooper則對金價仍有信心，「我們認為金價只是暫時出現調整，與 08年的情況類近。」當年金融海嘯席捲全球，黃金價格在 10月大跌 18%，但由於資金需要避險，令金價在之後兩個月大幅反彈升 23%。

You can't Print Physical Metal

http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Word on the street is that the negative feedback loop is full gear. I cant understand why they just dont start covering their shorts and get this over with already, days like today are not helping them.

The big argument of the day was this was a liquidation events. For the rooks, this means that a hedge fund, got smoked in another asset class, had his margin call because of the loss, and now turned to the only other asset that is till positive and sells it, very very quickly.

Today's event, in my opinion may have been both. I am still waiting for the data, but it looks like in the COMEX their was an inordinate amount of SHORTING. Not SELLING of Long Positions. So for those of you in manipulation denial, you are WRONG.

Silver was already liquidated in May via 5 margin hikes. This was already done.

Now the argument is- was the GOLD trade liquidated? More likely than silver, 100%. This is where people are getting very very confused. Add the fact in that a rumored Margin Hike was in, and you have the Blythe Green light go to pound this thing down 27% in 2 days with relentless SHORT SELLING. NOT SELLING. Clearly a HUGE difference. FIND ME ANOTHER COMMODITY THAT LOST EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO 27% in 2 days.

There are no weak hands left in silver. No one has the necessity to sell it. Again, this already happened in May. The leaves were already shaken.

This brings me full circle to the negative feedback loop created by the same people who short it. The lower silver goes, the more PHYSICAL people are buying. Thus, get ready for more and more and more of this. Down to $25, up to $40, back down to $38, up to $50, back down to $42, up to $75, back down to $45. And each time its gets smoked by 25% in 2 days it will have these three things in common:

a. The majority of the selling happens at 3 am EST when the LBMA opens, which has ZERO liquidity.

b. This selling happens in a COMEX expiration week.

c. The Morgue owned CME hikes margins.

But what happens when on these so called shake outs, they are actually making it easier for China, India, Russia ETC and the rest of the world to buy the fucking dip (physical)?

Just got off the phone with my dealer today, and two others now. They had their busiest days in VOLUME and SALES ever recorded. Usually they say down days like this are dead since everyone is scared.

一個自助服務台售賣頸部落戶北京，中國黃金

 阿爺要藏金於民.......
 為何香港無呢的好野?

視頻:
http://newscontent.cctv.com/news.jsp?fileId=117759

中國首台自助黃金售賣機正式在北京王府井亮相，國內消費者本週日或就能體驗這種新奇的銷售模式。



據悉，自助黃金售賣機是北京農商行與工美金業（北京）商貿有限公司擬合作開展的一種自助消費支付業務。首台機器於昨日在北京王府井工美大廈正式投入使用，工作人員在現場進行了試售，並成功購得自助黃金售賣機“吐出”的第一根金條。
現場圖片顯示，這台差不多一名成人高度的機器，在外形上與一般自動商品售貨機並無太大區別，金黃色的外表顯得十分耀眼。在這台自助黃金售賣機的正面上方裝有一塊觸摸式產品展示屏，屏幕上顯示有不同產品描述和價格，價格根據實時黃金產品報價每10分鐘更新一次，消​​費者可以自助挑選自己想要的黃金產品。
自助黃金售賣機項目方表示，每台販賣機放置320塊、10款不同的24k金幣或金條產品，其中，最大購買金條規格為2.5公斤，大約價值人民幣100萬。據了解，這款自助售賣機可以識別100元、50元現金，但不設找零。此外，消費者可以刷卡購買。
據悉，整個黃金售賣系統與央行清算中心聯通，銀聯對其交易規模不設上限。而為防範風險，自助售賣機只在有人值守的場所，如黃金售賣商場、高級私人會所、北京農商行營業大廳布放。
不過，關於消費者最關心的“與傳統黃金購買渠道相比，有沒有價格優勢”的問題，由於尚未正式開售目前尚不得而知，項目方也未給出具體說明。

CME Group Raises Comex Gold Margins By 21.5%, Silver Margins By 15.6%

又係火上加油.............你好野 (Kitco News) - The CME Group is raising the margins needed to trade Comex gold and silver futures are being increased by 21.5% and 15.6%, respectively, and the change will take effect after the close of business on Monday, the exchange said late Friday in a press release. The exchange is also raising copper futures margins by 17.6%. The move by the CME Group to raise the margin needed – also known as performance bonds – to trade gold, silver and copper futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange comes as prices for the metals plunged during the past two days as part of a sell off in financial markets in general. The CME Group is the parent company for the Comex and Nymex. The CME Group raised margins in other markets on Thursday and on Friday it also announced higher margins for long-term U.S. Treasury bond futures. The changes are as follows: Comex 100 ounce gold futures and 100-oz gold trade at settlement Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $9,450 $7,000 $11,475 $8,500 Hedger/Member $7,000 $7,000   $8,500 $8,500   Comex MiNY Gold Futures Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $4,725 $3,500   $5,738   $4,250 Hedger/Member $3,500 $3,500 $4,250 $4,250 10 oz Troy Gold Futures Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $945 $700 $1,148   $850 Hedger/Member $700 $700 $850 $850 Comex 5000 silver futures and silver futures trade at settlement Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $21,600 $16,000 $24,975 $18,500 Hedger/Member $16,000 $16,000 $18,500 $18,500 Comex MiNY silver futures Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $10,800 $8,000 $12,488 $9,250 Hedger/Member $8,000 $8,000 $9,250 $9,250 E-Mini silver futures Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $4,230 $3,200 $4,995   $3,700   Hedger/Member $3,200 $3,200 $3,700   $3,700   Comex copper futures Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $5,738 $4,250 $6,750 $5,000 Hedger/Member $4,250 $4,250 $5,000 $5,000 E-Mini copper futures Trader Type Current Initial Margin Current Maintenance New Initial New Maintenance Speculator $2,869 $2,125 $3,375 $2,500 Hedger/Member $2,125 $2,125 $2,500 $2,500 By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com <<Back to more Kitco exclusive news

Sprott Money Temporarily Runs Out of Physical Silver

白銀大減價..........多多貨都唔夠賣.........

交易商報告兩天內白銀現貨已被一搶而空，最大一單500萬美元！

http://kingworldnews.com/


With gold and silver prices plunging, King World News sources are reporting massive physical demand.  One example is Sprott Money, which completely ran out of physical silver.  Larisa Sprott, President of Sprott Money told KWN, “It’s been pretty wild, especially the last three or four days because of the price drop.  People are trading in their paper money for gold and silver, but we are seeing more purchases of silver net.  In fact the buying has been really skewed in favor of silver, there is tremendous demand.”


Larisa Sprott continues:


“We have completely run out of physical silver, so we are temporarily out of stock.  You have to remember, Eric, that like Dubai, we only sell product that is on our shelves, that we have in stock.  We do expect a shipment later today, which will allow us to restock and give us more product to sell. 


Our clients are very savvy, sophisticated and when a price drop of this magnitude occurs, they step in and buy very aggressively.  Right now there is dramatically increased volume what we are seeing is buying across all spectrums in terms of the size of the orders.


To clarify, we may have some client buying a single tube of silver maples, while at the same time, another client is buying $5 million of 100 ounce silver bars or gold maple leafs.  The bottom line here is the drawdown in price is creating a tremendous amount of demand.”