華爾街新問題：銀行家太多 交易太少

華

爾街碰到的最新問題：銀行家太多﹐交易數量太少。

面對新規出台、利潤降低以及併購市場低迷的情況﹐多家銀行計劃縮減為交易充沛的時代打造的投資銀行部。

據知情人士透露﹐包括花旗集團(Citigroup Inc.)、高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)、摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在內的多家投行已經削減了獎金﹐正準備再裁撤數十個工作崗位﹐其中包括部分資深銀行家佔據的職位。

知情人士說﹐最快下月上述投行就會開始進行這輪有針對性的裁員。同時這些投行及其競爭對手也開始重新評估其顧問業務的盈利預期。

直到最近﹐遭到裁員的主要還是交易部門﹐由於監管規定和市場低迷導致業務乾涸﹐華爾街投行的交易部門裁減了數千個職位。

但現在交易撮合人和企業顧問也成了投行削減成本時考慮裁員的對象。這幫人依舊是華爾街備受矚目的專業人士﹐而他們對投行淨收入的貢獻遠不能和交易員相比。除了併購顧問服務﹐包括股票和債券融資在內的投資銀行業務也受到裁減。

金融服務業高管獵頭公司Options Group執行合伙人卡普(Michael Karp)說﹐銀行業的整個模式正在發生變化﹐很多投行都在瘦身裁員﹐這將持續到今年年末。他又說﹐所有頂級大行都存在人員過剩的情況。

華爾街“優勝劣汰”的大環境意味著遭裁員的往往是年邁和無力勝任的銀行家。據知情人士透露﹐業績不佳或接近退休年齡的銀行家將成為裁員對象。

一家華爾街大行投資銀行部主管說﹐我們的目標是裁撤那些無法完成本職工作的人。這位主管說﹐相對於要做的工作而言﹐很多投行顯得過於臃腫。與過去幾年相比﹐投行不太願意繼續留用這些員工以期業務能在短期內復蘇。

雖然銀行家堅持認為進行交易的種種條件仍然成熟﹐但交易量始終低迷正在侵蝕投行收入。Dealogic的數據顯示﹐在2012年一季度﹐全球併購收入下降至38億美元﹐較去年同期下滑超過17%﹐是自2010年一季度以來收入最低的一個季度。

去年一季度﹐摩根大通在美國為價值達1,326億美元的一系列併購交易提供了咨詢﹐排名業內第一。今年這個數字下降到462億美元。排名第二的高盛集團去年一季度在美國為價值816億美元的交易提供了咨詢﹐但今年一季度只有428億美元。

併 購業務減少之際﹐華爾街的整體薪酬水平已經出現了下降。花旗、瑞信(Credit Suisse Group AG)和摩根士丹利等銀行2011年的投行獎金最高下降了30%。這種下降反映出全行業所處的嚴酷環境。投行業不僅面臨著利潤因監管加強而出現下降的局面 ﹐還面臨著歐洲債務危機帶來的麻煩。

一家大投行的併購部負責人說﹐大家都覺得我們回不到過去的好日子了﹐所以每家公司都將注意力集中在成本上面。

包括初級投行業者在內﹐所有級別投行業從業人員的獎金都已下降。許多投行高管說﹐考慮到新的現實情況以及初級投行業者帶來的業務量﹐這些人的薪酬太高了。業內人士說﹐底層分析師和項目經理(Associate)的基本工資一般是10萬美元多一點﹐然後再加上績效獎金。

Bloomberg News

投行董事總經理(managing director)的基本工資平均在40萬美元左右﹐而業績高的投行業者過去常常有數百萬美元的年度獎金入賬。但在今年﹐摩根士丹利總體上將現金獎金限制在12.5萬美元以內﹐其他投行也實施了多種形式的薪酬限制。

資深投行業者說﹐公司還要求他們從客戶身上取得更多收入。據他們描述﹐投行界覺得﹐不能只滿足於和那些只是間或給公司帶來業務的客戶維持長期關係了。

某大銀行的一位高管說﹐投行業者在反思﹔利潤遭到擠壓、併購業務不多﹐這降低了做投行的樂趣和滿足感﹔大家都在問自己﹐還值得繼續做下去嗎？

一 些投行業者正在選擇離開﹐他們或許是因為預料到公司會裁人或者是看到有同事離開。高盛近幾個月發生了多起備受關注的離職事件﹐包括國際併購部聯席負責人扎 維(Yoel Zaoui)、國際工業事業集群資深投行業者馬特松(George Mattson)和頂級私募業者貝爾林斯基(Milton Berlinski)的離職。知情人士說﹐其中一些人已經退休﹐另一些人還在思考下一步怎麼辦。

在一些人重啟投行職業生涯時﹐小型專業投資銀行成為他們的熱門選擇。今年2月﹐四位曾在摩根士丹利擔任董事總經理的投行業者開辦了自己的公司Dean Bradley Osborne Partners LLC。

Anupreeta Das / Gina Chon

Mexico, Russia and Central Banks Continue Diversifying into Gold
While gold demand from the western investors and store of wealth buyers has fallen in recent months, central bank demand continues to be very robust and this is providing strong support to gold above the $1,600/oz level.
IMF data released overnight shows that Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March.
Russia continued to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and increased its gold reserves by about 16.5 tons according to a statement by its central bank on April 20.

Changes to Gold Holdings in IMF (March) - Reuters Global Gold Forum
Other creditor nations with large foreign exchange reserves and exposure to the dollar and the euro including Turkey and Kazakhstan also increased their holdings of gold according to the International Monetary Fund data.
Mexico raised its reserves to 122.6 tons last month when gold averaged $1,676.67 an ounce.
Turkey added 11.5 tons, Kazakhstan 4.3 tons, Ukraine 1.2 tons, Tajikistan 0.4 ton, and Belarus 0.1 tonnes, according to the IMF.
Ukraine, Czech Republic and Belarus also had modest increases in their gold reserves.
Central banks are expanding reserves due to concerns about the dollar, euro, sterling and all fiat currencies.
There is an increasing realisation amongst central bankers that gold is a less risky alternative to most paper currencies and a recent survey showed that that majority of central bank reserves managers were favourable towards gold.
Signifying the mood of caution among the world’s central bankers, 71% of those polled said gold was a more attractive investment than it had been at the start of last year.
Central banks added 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades, and may buy a similar amount if not more in 2012, the World Gold Council and many analysts believe.
Turkey’s central bank increased the proportion of required reserves that commercial banks can deposit in gold last year. The changes have increased the amount of bullion the country, which owns 209.6 tons, declares in its official reserves.
President Vladimir Putin
Gold accounts for about 3.9 percent of Mexico’s total reserves and 9.7 percent of Russia’s, according to the World Gold Council. That compares with more than 70 percent for the U.S. and Germany, the biggest bullion holders, the data show.
The IMF data records the People’s Bank of China data showing that at the end of March China’s gold reserves remained unchanged at 33.88 million ounces.
This seems hard to believe and it remains likely that China is again quietly accumulating gold reserves and the PBOC will announce a material increase in their reserves when they are ready to do so.

中國外匯管理局昨 (23) 日公布，截至 2011 年底止，人行所持有的儲備黃金帳面價值已達 530 億美元 (約 4133 億港元) ，較 2009 年買入的成本價大增近 4 倍，成為去年最賺錢的投資資產。另外，去年中國對外證券投資達到 2600 億美元，較上年增加 1.12%。

《星島日報》報導，外管局公布，截至 2011 年底止，中國對外金融資產為 47182 億美元，對外金融負債 29434 億美元，對外金融淨資產 17747 億美元。對外金融資產中，對外直接投資 3642 億美元，證券投資 2600 億美元，其他投資 8382 億美元，儲備資產 32558 億美元，分別佔對外金融資產的 8% 、 6% 、 18% 和 69%。

截至去年底，人行所持的儲備黃金帳面價值達到 530 億美元，較上年增加 49 億美元。據人行數據顯示，自 2009 年 4 月至今，人行持有黃金總量一直為 3389 萬盎司，購入成本僅約 669.84 億人民幣 (約 106.18 億美元) ，若據此計算，人行所持黃金帳面價值，截至去年底升幅達 399.15% ，成為回報最高的資產。

另外，中國的對外貸款去年達 2232 億美元，較 2010 年底增加 90.11% ，貸款主要對象主要包括外國政府、國際組織，以及國外銀行和賣方信貸。 2010 年中國對外貸為 1174 億美元，較 2009 年增 20.53%。

中國對外金融負債方面，外國來華直接投資 18042 億美元，證券投資 2485 億美元，其他投資 8907 億美元，分別佔對外金融負債的 61% 、 9% 和 30% 。其中，截至去年底，債務證券大增 108.42% ，至 371 億美元，成為增速最快的對外負債項目。此外，外商投資股本證券去年增加 2.57% ，至 2114 億美元。

http://news.cnyes.com/

When I Dream

呢排又金銀好悶....不如聽下Kidd姐 When I Dream

The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold

Dear CIGAs,  
   
Gold is officially replacing the US dollar June 28th. The cat is out of the bag.
 
Phil, you are booting any nation that dares to refuse to be legislated by any other body than themselves out of the SWIFT system.
 
You have officially made gold money. Now what are you going to do, declare economic war on China? They will fire dollars back at you.
 
You just might end the economic world as you knew it.
 
The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold  
CIGA Eric
 
Have no doubt, emotions generated by short-term price action will be influencing investor decision-making a hundred years from now. We may have substituted iPad for the telegraph over the past hundred years, but we're still fairly lousy traders as a species. The real world makes decision based on reality rather than perceptions generated by emotions. Well, at least the real world that stays in business. The Chinese are buying gold while the public panics and sells. Nuf said.
 
Headline: The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold
 
"Beijing is planning to avoid U.S. financial sanctions on Iran by paying for oil with gold. China's imports of the metal are already large, and you can guess what additional purchases are going to do to prices. On the last day of 2011, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. The NDAA, as it is called, attempts to reduce Iran's revenue from the sale of petroleum by imposing sanctions on foreign financial institutions conducting transactions with Iranian financial institutions in connection with those sales. This provision, which essentially cuts off sanctioned institutions from the U.S. financial system, takes effect on June 28."
 
Source: forbes.com 

Syrian regime selling gold

敘利亞政權出售黃金

Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime is under increasing financial pressure as the economic sanctions imposed by western states and some Arab nations are hurting the country. According to Western diplomatic sources, the Syrian government is desperately selling its foreign currency reserves and the country's gold treasures to the highest bidder. Unsurprisingly, many have attacked these sales, and accuse Assad of throwing away the country’s heritage in an effort to stay in power.

According to Western diplomatic sources, the gold bars stored at the Central Bank of Syria are being sold at a great discount to their true worth, with al-Assad's regime using the proceeds to continue fighting rebels. In October last year the Arab League suspended Syria from participating at the organisation's summit – a move al-Assad branded as a betrayal of fundamental Arab values. Political tensions between the Syrian regime and its Arab neighbours have intensified; in November 2011 the Arab League imposed economic sanctions on Syria as the regime opposed letting 500 League monitors enter the country to evaluate the situation in situ. Up until this date, the death toll among the Syrian opposition had already reached 3,500. Members of the opposition have been publicly defying al-Assad on the streets of Damascus and other large Syrian cities.

The economic sanctions are mainly aimed at the Syrian central bank's activities and the important oil export sector. This year the European Union joined the Arab League by imposing its own sanctions on important Syrian politicians – including al-Assad. These measures included freezing politicians' foreign bank accounts and a weapons embargo. So far, the EU sanctions do not include oil. It seems doubtful though that the EU's weapons embargo against Syria will have much effect, given that the Russians have stated that they will continue to support the regime.

However, the economic sanctions signed by a total of 60 nations have so far managed to practically halve the foreign currency reserves held by the Central Bank of Syria. At the end of February the European Union tightened its sanctions, and the 27-country block completely excluded the Central Bank of Syria from gold and other precious metals trading. Now that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have followed this example, the Syrian regime is finding it increasingly difficult to empty its gold vaults. Though many are starting to have second thought about entering into financial deals with Syria, it remains to be seen whether these measures really can force al-Assad from power.

http://www.goldmoney.com

黃金三年升軌仍受考驗

石林

全球經濟基本狀況未有出現明顯的變化和進展，影響到金銀市場的牛熊雙方誰也不能取得顯著的上風，金價上周五在1658元（美元．下同）至1631元之間較窄幅範圍內上落波動，銀價更只在32.02元至31.19元間徘徊。然而，周內金銀均雖曾下試近數周的偏低位，但金價最終沒有跌破前周的1613元最低點，銀價也沒有跌穿前周最低點31.0元，故可說是一個偏淡而短期待變的局面。

趁此機會不妨談談有關金銀兩市之前景。到目前為止，繼續看好金銀後市仍是分析界的主流觀點，但很明顯早前對金價升至2000元的預測熱潮正在消退。去年秋冬不少人估計到該年年底金價會升抵上述大關，後又改為到今年首季方達致該水平，但到最近已不再聽到有類似的預測了。對銀價預測的變化更大，去年初段聽到不少銀價升抵100元的估計，後經該年5月初大挫的一役，變成到今年底若能重見50元也只是一個期望而已。相反去年銀市災劫快一周年了，或會令人勾起一些不愉快的回憶。

收市價成下降通道

先談談金市的較大圖象，自去年金價漲至1920元歷史新高峰後至今，金市出現高點一個比一個為低、而低點亦一個比一個為低的局面，這表示金市起碼在中期是從高峰走下坡。在對數圖表上，自2008年10月以來的上升軌（這也是當今牛市第三條上升軌）在去年12月告失守，其後出現向該升軌回抽進而再跌的情景。即使在線性圖上，該相應的三年多來上升軌在前兩周備受考驗。到上周仍處於受考驗的狀態，除非日後我們看到金價大幅向上拋離該上升軌，否則該軌最終有被跌破的危險。

金市從高峰走下坡的情景，我們可以從收市價圖更清晰地看到。自去年8月22日開始至今，在該圖出現一個下降通道，除非黃金收市價重返1740元並升破1780元水平，市勢方可扭轉這個中期反覆向下的劣局。就中短期而言，1680元是金收市價的回升阻力水平，而1620元是支持水平，若此水平失守，下一個關鍵支持水平恐要低至1549元水平了。

白銀收市價亦呈現一個下降通道，並早在去年4月28日已開始形成。目前該通道的頂線處於35元水平，並須升越37元才可破壞這個通道。短線而言，31元是銀收市價一個支持水平，而34.3元是回升阻力。

另一下降通道形成

美國復蘇過程十分緩慢，歐洲主權債務危機不時惡化會產生一股收縮力量，中國經濟放緩甚至有硬着陸的危險，三種因素導致金銀價格近年來從高峰向下走軟。但是市場不時出現對有關當局採取新的刺激政策的期望，金銀價亦常常從低位反彈。截至目前為止，比較明顯撤離金銀市場只是投機資金，例如到上周末段，期金市場的未平倉合約量進一步低於40萬張水平。但是投資資金仍留在金市，至本月上旬，五隻主要黃金ETFs的持金量只從歷史高峰的1647.5噸減少約13噸而已。故近半年來金價只是反覆偏軟，但並非發生崩潰。

最近金市又形成另一較小型的下降通道，但由於金礦股出現超賣及美元走弱，故估計短期金價暫不致低於1628元，且不會再低試至1612元，然而回升阻力會出現在1663元至1670元的地帶，金價要升越1680元才會破壞此通道。銀市短期是處於窄幅平穩狀態，看來短期可避免跌破31元及進一步下試29.7元的危機，但回升阻力分別會在32.5元和33.3元出現，而34.5元是最大的阻力。

美元走軟會是短期金銀價格的一項支持因素，但留意兩者的反向關係最近變得鬆脫。