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Silver Update, poised for a rally?

http://www.safehaven.com/

Originally published August 15th, 2011.

Silver held up surprisingly well during the stockmarket collapse - you will recall that we had expected it to take more of a beating - no doubt assisted by gold's sparkling performance, so that now, having held above strong support, and with a marked improvement in its COT structure over the past week, it is believed to be poised for a really strong upleg.

The 6-month chart for silver shows HUGE upside potential, with a powerful uptrend starting from right where we are now. If the interpretation of the wave count is correct (this can be a big "if" of course, but it does look very clear at this point), then the point we are at now is close to the trough of the wave 2 reaction that should now immediately lead to a strong wave 3 uptrend, all this following the 3-wave A-B-C correction shown on the chart. Even without reference to wave theories the chart certainly looks encouraging as silver managed to break above the quite strong resistance in the $39.00 - $39.50 zone on its wave 1 advance which is now functioning as a support level, in addition to which its moving averages are now in bullish alignment and it is not overbought on short to medium-term oscillators as made clear by the RSI and MACD indicators on the chart. Everything appears to be in place for a big rally to get going - "all systems go" as they used to say.

Further evidence that a big rally is brewing in silver is provided by the latest COT chart, which shows a surprisingly large reduction in Commercial short positions in just one week - the Commercials are getting out of the way, which signals a rally - and it may have just started with today's 85 cent rise.

金衡電子秤

今日終於去買返個電子秤,呢款電子秤是有"兩"的重量單位...
但oz就是"常衡安士",不是"金衡安士"....針無兩頭利
但可以用Gram去量都得.

Turk: 黃金調整到8月底然後衝破1810美元，白銀行情本週就可能開始發動。

http://kingworldnews.com

Turk - A Gold Breakout Above $1,810 Could Come at Any Time

With gold closing above $1,750 on the 40th anniversary of Nixon taking the US off of the gold standard, today King World News interviewed James Turk.  Turk had this to say, “Let’s talk about the 40th anniversary, you know normally anniversaries are happy times but I would say this is not a particularly happy anniversary given how badly everything has gone over the past 40 years.  All of the problems that we see today are a direct result of the US abandoning gold.”

When asked about the action in the metals Turk responded, “I think this is going to be a good week for silver.  There were a lot of hedge funds buying gold and selling silver when gold had its big move last week and I think some of those spreads are going to be unwound.  Silver has been holding support here, it’s getting ready to follow gold on the way up.  My expectation is that silver is going to outperform gold this week, which would be the first time that has happened in a few weeks.

Well I’m really impressed by the strength in gold Eric, it just gets stronger and stronger.  We had that big move up last week and we’ve basically just gone sideways, building support in the $1,720 area, we’re $1,755 as we speak.  We might work in the 1,740 to $1,760 area a little bit longer, but I think we’ll be challenging that $1,810 high before the month of August is over.

“Gold has started the week very positively and it’s quite clear that the test of support last week indicates that support under the market is solid.  Given the fact that you’ve got India on holiday and a lot of Europe as well, it’s quite amazing to see the physical demand for gold and the strength in gold today.

Regarding near-term outlook I think gold is going to probe $1,810 before the end of this month.  We may stay in an $1,810 to $1,740 range until next month, meaning we could test the lows one more time at $1,740 before we finally break out above $1,810, but that breakout above $1,810 could come at any time.”

Rickards - KWN特別版，美國將重估金至7,000元

 http://kingworldnews.com/

With today being the 40th Anniversary of Nixon taking the US off of the gold standard, King World News interviewed KWN Resident Expert Jim Rickards, Senior Managing Director at Tangent Capital Markets, to get his take on that historic event and where the US is headed forty years later.  When asked about Nixon’s move in 1971 Rickards stated, “It is indeed a very significant date in the history of the international monetary system.  August 15th, 1971, was the day that Nixon closed the gold window.  By the way that’s a very technical term, I mean everyone says Nixon took us off the gold standard, it’s not exactly what he did.  

What was going on at the time was that the official price of gold was $35 an ounce.  When you were a country and you cashed in dollars at the US Treasury that’s how much gold you got, you got your gold at $35 an ounce.  That was how countries settled up with each other.”

Jim Rickards continues:

“However, there was a private gold market at the time and in the private gold market, it was fluctuating, but it was selling for around $42 an ounce.  So the gold window was basically an arbitrage.  It meant that if you were France or the Netherlands or a country that had US dollars, you could cash in your dollars and get gold at $35 an ounce.  Then you could turn around and sell it in the open market at $42 an ounce and basically make a risk-free profit and that profit was called, ‘The gold window.’  It was just a very simple arbitrage.

So what Nixon did, he closed ‘The gold window’, he said to the rest of the world, basically you can no longer come in with your dollars and get gold because I don’t want you doing that and then selling into the market and making the spread.  But he never really took the US off of the gold standard, at least at the time.  In fact to this day the gold is still on the books of the US Treasury.  There were a couple of international monetary conferences during the course of which gold was revalued up to a little over $42 an ounce and that’s where it sits on the books of the (US) Treasury today.   

There was a reporter at the time for Time Magazine, he said, “Well, all that’s happened is that instead of refusing to sell gold at $35 an ounce, the US will refuse to sell gold at $42 an ounce.  In other words it was the selling of the gold that Nixon wanted to close.

You have to sort of put yourself in the scene:  August 15th, 1971, was a Sunday and at least in the ‘70s we didn’t have the cable stations and the internet...You basically had ABC, CBS and NBC, you sat down on Sunday and you watched one of the big three networks.  The most popular show at the time....

“...was a western show called, ‘Bonanza’.  If you are too young to remember Bonanza, it would be kind of like American Idol today, it was the number one show in America.  

Nixon goes on the air and he interrupts Bonanza, again it would be like the President coming on with a special announcement nobody was prepared for in the middle of American Idol, he’s (Nixon is) sitting at his desk and there is an American flag in the background and he says three things:  

He said first of all I am imposing national price controls because there was an inflation problem in the United States at the time.  The second thing he said was I am putting a 10% surtax of imports on all imported goods coming into the United States.  Then about 10 minutes into the speech, very much en passant, he said, ‘Oh by the way we are suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold’ and he immediately went into this Nixonian rant about speculators.

He acted like the wounded party, he said, ‘I refuse to let the American dollar be held hostage by speculators and we are going to make sure these speculators never do our economy harm.  So we are going to make it impossible for the speculators to profit by shutting the gold window’.  He made it sound like he was doing everyone a big favor.

So it was very interesting, there were three earth-shaking announcements.  Can you imagine any one of those three things going on today?  President Obama or any President saying he was going to impose nationwide price controls, or all Chinese goods would have a 10% surcharge.  It would be cataclysmic, yet Nixon did both of those things.  Plus (Nixon) took us off the gold standard, so it was quite a dramatic speech.

In a strange way he did us all a favor by making sure we (the US) held on to the gold.  So I do think the United States is in a position to revalue the currency using gold to that $7,000 level.  That will obviously be a huge benefit to all of the people who invested in gold because they are going to be along for the ride, along with the United States when that gold goes to $7,000.”

2011年8月8-12日金銀市場評論

錢學深

本周黃金上漲勢頭極為強勁，一度衝破1800美元。股票市場則震蕩劇 烈。周一道指大跌600多點，次日漲回400多點，第三天又跌500多點，第四天又漲回500多點。這種罕見的震蕩表明市場的信心嚴重不足。任何風吹草動 都可能引爆整個全球金融市場。在這種情況下，大量資金湧向黃金市場。快速地推高了黃金的價格。短期來看黃金價格需要一段盤整鞏固的行情， 把基礎打牢。為不遠的將來進一步騰飛作好準備。

與波瀾壯闊的黃金行情相比，白銀價格本周基本上是風平浪靜。在38-39美元範圍內小幅波動。雖然黃金上衝時白銀價格並未跟進，然而黃金價格回調時白銀價格也未下跌。盡管近期白銀市場並不給力。但從多個中長期時間尺度來衡量，白銀的漲幅均超過黃金。
今年以來白銀從30美元漲到目前的39美元，漲幅為30%。 黃金從年初的1400 到現在的1750左右，漲幅約25%。前一段白銀大漲時黃金漲幅不大，現在是黃金追隨白銀的補漲。而且還沒有超過白銀的漲幅。再從2008年金融海嘯爆發 後，金銀分別從最低點回漲的幅度看，白銀是從不到9美元漲到現在的39美元，漲幅約433%。黃金從最低點800美元到現在的1750美元漲幅約 218%。最後從2000年到現在，白銀從不到5美元漲到現在的39美元，漲幅約780%。 黃金從300美元到現在的1750美元，漲幅約583%。 從以上今年，三年，十一年的漲幅對比，我們可以清楚地看到，黃金白銀的大方向是一致的，都是漲。但白銀的漲幅在以上各個時間段都明顯高於黃金。 由此可以推斷，一旦黃金有效突破1765美元大關，打開了繼續上升的通道，白銀還將會和黃金比翼齊飛，但很可能會飛得更快！

石林_黃金展露王者風範

試問世上還有沒有比下面說的更加滑稽的事情呢？
美國主權債務在法理上和技術上可能發生違約的危機，在法定期限最後一刻才獲解決，但緊接着來美國信貸評級被一家機構降級。事件引發全球金融市場一輪新的劇烈波動，直至上周末才稍告平復，我們現在嘗試點算一下今年下半年至今各市場的得失。遭評定降級的美國債券，價格不是下跌，反而是上升！兩年債價升0.44％，十年債價升6.37％。三十年債價升幅更達11.39％，為期內各市場中表現最好的第三名。
同期美元並無被拋售，但非表現獨好，美滙指數微升0.41％。歐羅則下跌1.78％，而瑞士法郎報升8.0％，日圓亦升4.86％。
商品類表現不濟，CRB商品期貨下跌3.41％，銅價下跌6.55％，油價更跌10.61％。
股市表現更差，標普500指數下跌10.74％，上證指數跌6.14％。恒生指數則跌達12.40％，表現居排行榜的末位。
貴金屬中的鈀報跌1.79％，鉑則升4.28％。金卻大升16.39％，銀亦報升12.17％，榮列第一名和第二名，位居美長債之上。
現非08年續集
真是笑不出聲的「滑稽」！被降級的美長債竟有逾一成的進賬，混亂中損失最大的反而是股市投資者，黃金在亂世中展露出真正王者風範。
這有別於2008年，當時世人恐懼通縮和蕭條降臨，市場表現為美元與美債同升，股市與商品包括黃金俱跌，因此如果說目前是該年的續集，那不符合事實。
最 近有海內外學者和評論者指出，美國經濟體質堅強，而各國經濟周期不同步，這次危機起因乃由上而下，與2008年不同，故全球經濟不會「二次衰退」。目前的 問題乃在於市場參與者彼此間缺乏互信，更共同對政府是否有能力推動經濟增長嚴重不信任。即是說用上次危機用過的武器來解決這次危機也許行不通，再多印鈔票 也難誘使企業加強投資和說服投資者重返股市。

目前困境是來自人們的心魔，黃金脫節高升亦源於此。

直奔上升通道頂
黃金承接前五周的連續升勢，上周再馬不停蹄直衝上至1815元（美元．下同）的歷史新高位，至於雖有頗大的回吐，以及CME集團把期金交易按金提高22％，但周末金價仍收於1746.3元，使全周錄得82.9元或4.98％的巨大升幅。
這是黃金牛市後期加速率提高的一個具體表現，但尚未到達井噴的階段。目前短期金價已直奔對數圖表為時三年上升通道的頂部，且最近金價直升時、期金的未平倉合約量和大投機者的淨好倉量均呈遞減，反映市勢主要是淡倉作恐慌性回補，並非新買盤大量購入。
因此稍後若其他金融市場進一步平復時，金市會繼續作急升後的調整。
現時估計金市短期上升阻力分別在1770元和1780元水平，支持則在1720元。中短期支持相信在1680元，強大的中期支持水平為1650元，屆時是再度入市的好機會。
銀市現時不是主角，走勢只是按「常規」走動，上周銀價回試36.9元後回揚，但仍低於40元的關口。值得注意的是，業者現時的淡倉對好倉的比率又低於1.97水平，故估計銀價將可維持在36.75元之上，並再上試40元及42.25元的回升阻力位。
今 天是8月15日。四十年前的今天，美國總統尼克遜關閉「黃金窗口」，停止美元兌換黃金。這等於宣布「布雷頓森林體系」瓦解，聯邦儲備局再無責任要美元與任 何東西有聯繫。從此四十年來，黃金對美元升值了48.6倍，或美元對黃金貶值97.98％。我們對此事只宜紀念，絕不應慶祝。