2011年12月11日星期日
Unambiguous Wealth
Read more @ fofoa.blogspot.com
In the present monetary system, wealth is commonly held as ambiguous claims against the economy. We call it stocks, bonds, money market funds, mutual funds, etc… People hold their wealth in this way for the promise it makes of more wealth forthcoming! Sound familiar?
Now, when I say that there will actually be much more wealth forthcoming for those with **unambiguous** ownership of physical gold today, some people feel compelled to argue that their ambiguous claims have a better history of "more wealth forthcoming." And this argument is not without merit.
It is true that stocks and bonds did very well in the '80s and '90s. In fact, my own father is still waiting for the Dow to get back to 14,000 to regain the wealth he thinks he lost. The Dow beat CPI inflation hands down throughout the '80s and '90s, and that's how you know you made a good investment, by beating inflation.
The Dow entered the 1980s at $824. So if your $824 investment in 1980 had perfectly tracked official inflation, you'd have had $1,722 in 2000 and $2,264 in 2011 (according to the BLS inflation calculator). But in the Dow, your investment became $11,722 by January, 2000, and $12,045 today. So even though it hasn't done much in the last decade, the Dow still beat inflation by a large margin over the last 30 years.
Bonds also had a huge 30-year run as the Fed lowered rates from 20% down to 0%. Remember, as interest rates are lowered, the price of bonds issued at the previous higher rates rises. So bond investors do very well in a falling interest rate environment.
When we compare investment gains to inflation, what we're really doing is discounting the devaluation of the numéraire over the period of the gain. In other words, we are gauging our gain against the physical plane of goods and services which is what really matters. Another way to look at it is that the dollar was devalued against goods and services while your investment was revalued. This is what I meant when I recently wrote the following:
"I cannot see a dollar collapse without a simultaneous revaluation of something else. It's a seesaw. The dollar isn't collapsing against gold. It is collapsing against the physical plane of goods and services. That's the fulcrum, not gold. Dollar collapse is the force, goods and services the fulcrum, and gold the load. So gold is revaluing against goods and services. The gold revaluation is against the physical plane so as to fill the reserve void left by the dollar's collapse."
So why did the Dow revalue so much in the '80s and '90s and then level off in the noughties just as gold began its rise?
As it turns out, FOA wrote a post about this in November of 2001:
FOA (11/3/01; 14:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#129)
An "inflationary depression" is in the cards -- a "price deflation" doesn't have a chance!
----------------------
Back in the mid to late 70s Sir John Templeton always drove his point home for investors watching Luis Rukiser's show. (how does one spell his name,,,,, we always called him Lou Baby (smile))
Sir John, living here on Layford Cay, kept saying that the Dow of the 70s was very underpriced and would soar. He was the most absolutely correct person stating that then! But more into the mechanics of his perception: he knew that anyone buying the Dow and waiting a decade or more, would gain way beyond mere price inflation. Monetary inflation would eventually drive the perceived virtual wealth of US stocks ever higher. So high, in fact, that their percentage gains over price inflationary gains would be incredible. They were!
Truly, what John was referring to was the effects that simple "passive inflation" has on paper assets; especially in a "reserve currency's" domestic market. In this; real price inflation is mostly exported by importing "real goods" competition. This happens as we export excess credit dollars to buy things. It also has another effect; some of that same exported printed money flows in a circle and joins native investors' buying of local paper assets. When this process first starts, "passive inflation", in the form of massive money creation that's far beyond real price inflation, allows one to gain "virtual paper wealth" even before the markets price out the gains. That is; the Dow stays cheap at first then eventually rises to absorb the money inflation! As long as prices don't rise too much.
People that followed his advice, accumulated the Dow over a decade or more; buying "virtual wealth" before the fact! Stock investors made a killing by positioning their assets where this created "passive monetary inflation" would eventually end up. Even though hard money players laughed at them all thru out the 70s, 80s and early 90s! Look who is laughing now? Stocks tromped hard money plays hands down for over 20+ years! Even considering the latest fall on Wall Street.
----------------------
I want to jump in here and add a little more explanation of what he was talking about. FOA's "passive inflation" was money inflation that didn't spill over into consumer price inflation (CPI). The reason it didn't spill over is in my recent post, Moneyness. (See also: Credibility Inflation) FOA says we imported "real goods competition." That is, we ran a trade deficit and ended up with foreign goods that competed with our own domestic goods keeping all the prices down.
And because we were running a trade deficit, those dollars that paid for it came back to the US buying up the stock and bond markets rather than the price of consumer goods. So the more easy credit we created, the more our paper investments would eventually rise, with a time lag that gave "early adopters" a gain far above consumer price inflation. Now, back to FOA:
My friends:
Today, this same "virtual wealth" effect has been created again and is located in physical gold bullion. I believe Sir John has already made part of my point but I will repeat.
When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically, its domestic market will come to a point where it can no longer export "real price inflation" in the format of; "shipping its excess currency outside its borders". This happens because internal money inflation, that is super currency printing, is increased so much that it overwhelms even its export flow. Worse, even that export flow later tumbles as the fiat falls on exchange markets.
The effect is that local "passive inflation", built up over decades and fully reflected in "Sir John's" paper assets, spreads out as "aggressive inflation" and hyper price rises begin. In this action, the very same wealth effect that was eventually priced into "John's" Dow stocks and other assets, begins a long march of being priced into real gold.
Anyone that has accumulated physical gold over this past long period was doing the exact same thing Dow buyers of the late 60s and early 70s were doing: ------ saving "wealth" as unpriced "virtual wealth" stored up over that "passive inflation" period. ---
----------------------
As "political will" begins to impact the economies of the US,
our old "virtual wealth" that is no longer in the form of "passive inflation" nor limited to the currency, and is openly displayed in our vast sea of paper assets values including stocks, bonds--------
must now be defended in the open with official printed money flow.
---------------
Me again. Notice he says, "When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically…" and then, "As 'political will' begins to impact the economies of the US…" What he's talking about is the political will of U.S. trading partners to support our trade deficit by stuffing their reserves with U.S. Treasuries, and again it's in Moneyness that this is ending today. At the time FOA wrote that, the "political will" of Europe had already shifted away from the dollar, today it's China.
More from FOA:
The "virtual wealth" in gold, saved over years by patient investors, will also be priced to market in this process.
Never mind that during the Dow years paper gold markets could not work in parallel with all the other asset gains; it couldn't. Hard money players, trying to somehow play the Dow's game, never caught on to what was happening. Instead of buying "virtual wealth" by saving real gold; they bought leveraged bets that gold would be priced correctly during the "paper asset" years.
Obviously, this "trade" failed hard money players as the waves of value from other paper gains and derivatives leverage were employed against their every long bet on gold. Not only that; the "virtual wealth" in gold was never opened for them with the super price inflation they all thought was coming during that era!
Now that the paper game is about to stop for the Dow, it will also cut off the leverage of gold bets. Just as the real game begins.
The reason for this is that our massive, decades-long gains in our stock markets did not bankrupt the leverage in the money system. Whereas any massive rise in physical gold values cannot be priced into "derivative gold" without crashing the system.
Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced; not create new loses by liquefying the leverage that's countering your play!
This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed.
------
In this perception USAGOLD has been guiding its clients, and now the world, in much the same way Sir John did decades ago.
"Buy what has value at the greatest discount and wait for the politics of money to price your new savings correctly"!
The politics of wealth today is centered around gold bullion and only gold bullion: that is where the wealth and power will be manifest: this is where the gains will be! To bet on the rest of the hard market; is to bet against the coming inflation making your asset whole!
Place as much of your wealth in physical gold as your understanding allows and save this "virtual wealth" of the ages today: waiting for it to become real wealth, priced correctly in the marketplace, tomorrow.
Make no mistake, the wealth is there "but only there in bullion"! Because a free bullion market cannot be denied or controlled
----- when it stands between the opposite goals of political powers! ---
In this: it will separate from the politically crushing reality the current dollar-based paper gold markets represent. The premium on bullion will soar!
The "Political will" of old world Europe is about to help make our investment real. For myself, a large percentage of my wealth is being saved by going with the evolution of paper moneys: not against!
This trend is visible now and based on the forward flow of human affairs, not the backward rules of money theory!
Our future is today; if not just around the trail!
Sir Douglas; aka FOA
your: Gold - Trail – Guide
Were you able to follow all of that? This little bit gets right to the heart of the matter; the difference between paper gold and real physical bullion. Remember from Moneyness that the people's money throughout history has been credit denominated in something. The majority of exchanges up until the invention of paper money were largely on the basis of credit and trust, with accounts later cleared and imbalances settled in metal. In this way, a relatively small and stable monetary base serves a much larger economy.
But today we use that credit, that debt or liability asset as our savings, not just for trade. Now I want you to think about the fundamental difference between claims denominated in paper money versus claims denominated in gold metal. The claims denominated in paper money can be liquefied in actual base money terms by the central bank. But the claims denominated in actual gold metal cannot.
FOA: "Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced… This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed."
So claims denominated in dollars must be saved, "made whole" for the sake of the system, but claims denominated in physical metal CANNOT be saved without destroying the banks. The entire international monetary and financial system is in dire need of something to save it right now, wouldn't you agree? The whole system appears insolvable as presently priced, a Catch-22 of incomprehensible dimensions.
But the solution is not so incomprehensible, and it was never up for debate. It was baked into the cake long ago, as FOA pointed out. You may personally prefer that they simply let the system fail. But "they" are central bankers, so we can safely predict they will try something. And that something is the only thing that can happen.
The U.S. dollar and gold will both be massively expanded to recapitalize the system, and life will go on. The difference being that the dollar will be expanded in volume while physical gold bullion will be expanded through value. And through this process, all ambiguous claims, both dollar-based and metal-based will become virtually worthless, while unambiguous gold ownership will literally explode in value.
This is an historical first. Today is the first time in history where a massive transfer of wealth will transpire through the conversion of all gold on the planet into unambiguous ownership. Think about this long and hard. More than 90% of all the gold stock has been mined in the last 200 years. During that time, unambiguous, discrete (and discreet) ownership has entailed an unnecessary expense. During the gold standard years gold was the money, so it was all unallocated and ambiguously owned. Even today, most of the gold in the BB system is still on pallets, a remnant of the gold standard years. But that is changing.
It is more important than ever, right now, to make sure that you unambiguously own discrete pieces of gold. You don't want to just own "a bar of gold" at the bank, you want to own bar number JM4835 or whatever. And you certainly don't want to own a fractional interest in a bar when you can own coins down to one gram. Better yet, have your gold unambiguously in your possession, or at least under your control outside of the banking system that is still struggling to cope with this change.
Have you ever wondered why bullion banks have been opening new or decommissioned vaults and clearing space for more gold? It's not because there's more gold coming into play. It's because it takes much more space to store unambiguous, allocated gold than it does to store ambiguously owned pallets of "gold". From my post The View: A Classic Bank Run:
Here's an interesting item that I struggled to interpret until I really thought it through. Do you remember the stories about HSBC clearing out space in their vaults, or JP Morgan building new vaults? What could be the explanation for this if the aggregate gold stock is so stable? Then it occurred to me that unallocated storage is much more space-efficient because the gold sits stacked on pallets. Allocated gold often gets put into cubby holes to assist in recordkeeping. That takes up much more space. So the process of allocation after many decades of non-allocation requires an expansion of vault space. This is how I now interpret these stories.
_________________________________________________________
Taking personal responsibility for your life's savings when you've always counted on "the system" to safeguard it for you is not an easy step to take. Converting your savings from ambiguous claims in the system (either dollar or gold-denominated) into unambiguous wealth is not without considerable hassle, risk and expense. But it has never been more important than right now. Conversion is early adoption, like buying the Dow sub-1,000. Conversion to unambiguous pieces you can possess is front running the reset, the global revaluation that could come at any moment. As a long-time reader wrote me just today: the window will be closed soon.
He also wrote this:
"A recent 'convert' to protecting his life savings, a friend said, 'wow, it hit me last night......'
I said, 'what?'
"Well, now I understand, all the policymakers are doing currently is making my gold worth higher in purchasing power as they annihilate my currency.....thus, why the heck would I hold something that they are destroying willingly!"
Yup, that about says it all!
In the present monetary system, wealth is commonly held as ambiguous claims against the economy. We call it stocks, bonds, money market funds, mutual funds, etc… People hold their wealth in this way for the promise it makes of more wealth forthcoming! Sound familiar?
Now, when I say that there will actually be much more wealth forthcoming for those with **unambiguous** ownership of physical gold today, some people feel compelled to argue that their ambiguous claims have a better history of "more wealth forthcoming." And this argument is not without merit.
It is true that stocks and bonds did very well in the '80s and '90s. In fact, my own father is still waiting for the Dow to get back to 14,000 to regain the wealth he thinks he lost. The Dow beat CPI inflation hands down throughout the '80s and '90s, and that's how you know you made a good investment, by beating inflation.
The Dow entered the 1980s at $824. So if your $824 investment in 1980 had perfectly tracked official inflation, you'd have had $1,722 in 2000 and $2,264 in 2011 (according to the BLS inflation calculator). But in the Dow, your investment became $11,722 by January, 2000, and $12,045 today. So even though it hasn't done much in the last decade, the Dow still beat inflation by a large margin over the last 30 years.
Bonds also had a huge 30-year run as the Fed lowered rates from 20% down to 0%. Remember, as interest rates are lowered, the price of bonds issued at the previous higher rates rises. So bond investors do very well in a falling interest rate environment.
When we compare investment gains to inflation, what we're really doing is discounting the devaluation of the numéraire over the period of the gain. In other words, we are gauging our gain against the physical plane of goods and services which is what really matters. Another way to look at it is that the dollar was devalued against goods and services while your investment was revalued. This is what I meant when I recently wrote the following:
"I cannot see a dollar collapse without a simultaneous revaluation of something else. It's a seesaw. The dollar isn't collapsing against gold. It is collapsing against the physical plane of goods and services. That's the fulcrum, not gold. Dollar collapse is the force, goods and services the fulcrum, and gold the load. So gold is revaluing against goods and services. The gold revaluation is against the physical plane so as to fill the reserve void left by the dollar's collapse."
As it turns out, FOA wrote a post about this in November of 2001:
FOA (11/3/01; 14:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#129)
An "inflationary depression" is in the cards -- a "price deflation" doesn't have a chance!
----------------------
Back in the mid to late 70s Sir John Templeton always drove his point home for investors watching Luis Rukiser's show. (how does one spell his name,,,,, we always called him Lou Baby (smile))
Sir John, living here on Layford Cay, kept saying that the Dow of the 70s was very underpriced and would soar. He was the most absolutely correct person stating that then! But more into the mechanics of his perception: he knew that anyone buying the Dow and waiting a decade or more, would gain way beyond mere price inflation. Monetary inflation would eventually drive the perceived virtual wealth of US stocks ever higher. So high, in fact, that their percentage gains over price inflationary gains would be incredible. They were!
Truly, what John was referring to was the effects that simple "passive inflation" has on paper assets; especially in a "reserve currency's" domestic market. In this; real price inflation is mostly exported by importing "real goods" competition. This happens as we export excess credit dollars to buy things. It also has another effect; some of that same exported printed money flows in a circle and joins native investors' buying of local paper assets. When this process first starts, "passive inflation", in the form of massive money creation that's far beyond real price inflation, allows one to gain "virtual paper wealth" even before the markets price out the gains. That is; the Dow stays cheap at first then eventually rises to absorb the money inflation! As long as prices don't rise too much.
People that followed his advice, accumulated the Dow over a decade or more; buying "virtual wealth" before the fact! Stock investors made a killing by positioning their assets where this created "passive monetary inflation" would eventually end up. Even though hard money players laughed at them all thru out the 70s, 80s and early 90s! Look who is laughing now? Stocks tromped hard money plays hands down for over 20+ years! Even considering the latest fall on Wall Street.
----------------------
I want to jump in here and add a little more explanation of what he was talking about. FOA's "passive inflation" was money inflation that didn't spill over into consumer price inflation (CPI). The reason it didn't spill over is in my recent post, Moneyness. (See also: Credibility Inflation) FOA says we imported "real goods competition." That is, we ran a trade deficit and ended up with foreign goods that competed with our own domestic goods keeping all the prices down.
And because we were running a trade deficit, those dollars that paid for it came back to the US buying up the stock and bond markets rather than the price of consumer goods. So the more easy credit we created, the more our paper investments would eventually rise, with a time lag that gave "early adopters" a gain far above consumer price inflation. Now, back to FOA:
My friends:
Today, this same "virtual wealth" effect has been created again and is located in physical gold bullion. I believe Sir John has already made part of my point but I will repeat.
When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically, its domestic market will come to a point where it can no longer export "real price inflation" in the format of; "shipping its excess currency outside its borders". This happens because internal money inflation, that is super currency printing, is increased so much that it overwhelms even its export flow. Worse, even that export flow later tumbles as the fiat falls on exchange markets.
The effect is that local "passive inflation", built up over decades and fully reflected in "Sir John's" paper assets, spreads out as "aggressive inflation" and hyper price rises begin. In this action, the very same wealth effect that was eventually priced into "John's" Dow stocks and other assets, begins a long march of being priced into real gold.
Anyone that has accumulated physical gold over this past long period was doing the exact same thing Dow buyers of the late 60s and early 70s were doing: ------ saving "wealth" as unpriced "virtual wealth" stored up over that "passive inflation" period. ---
----------------------
As "political will" begins to impact the economies of the US,
our old "virtual wealth" that is no longer in the form of "passive inflation" nor limited to the currency, and is openly displayed in our vast sea of paper assets values including stocks, bonds--------
must now be defended in the open with official printed money flow.
---------------
Me again. Notice he says, "When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically…" and then, "As 'political will' begins to impact the economies of the US…" What he's talking about is the political will of U.S. trading partners to support our trade deficit by stuffing their reserves with U.S. Treasuries, and again it's in Moneyness that this is ending today. At the time FOA wrote that, the "political will" of Europe had already shifted away from the dollar, today it's China.
More from FOA:
The "virtual wealth" in gold, saved over years by patient investors, will also be priced to market in this process.
Never mind that during the Dow years paper gold markets could not work in parallel with all the other asset gains; it couldn't. Hard money players, trying to somehow play the Dow's game, never caught on to what was happening. Instead of buying "virtual wealth" by saving real gold; they bought leveraged bets that gold would be priced correctly during the "paper asset" years.
Obviously, this "trade" failed hard money players as the waves of value from other paper gains and derivatives leverage were employed against their every long bet on gold. Not only that; the "virtual wealth" in gold was never opened for them with the super price inflation they all thought was coming during that era!
Now that the paper game is about to stop for the Dow, it will also cut off the leverage of gold bets. Just as the real game begins.
The reason for this is that our massive, decades-long gains in our stock markets did not bankrupt the leverage in the money system. Whereas any massive rise in physical gold values cannot be priced into "derivative gold" without crashing the system.
Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced; not create new loses by liquefying the leverage that's countering your play!
This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed.
------
In this perception USAGOLD has been guiding its clients, and now the world, in much the same way Sir John did decades ago.
"Buy what has value at the greatest discount and wait for the politics of money to price your new savings correctly"!
The politics of wealth today is centered around gold bullion and only gold bullion: that is where the wealth and power will be manifest: this is where the gains will be! To bet on the rest of the hard market; is to bet against the coming inflation making your asset whole!
Place as much of your wealth in physical gold as your understanding allows and save this "virtual wealth" of the ages today: waiting for it to become real wealth, priced correctly in the marketplace, tomorrow.
Make no mistake, the wealth is there "but only there in bullion"! Because a free bullion market cannot be denied or controlled
----- when it stands between the opposite goals of political powers! ---
In this: it will separate from the politically crushing reality the current dollar-based paper gold markets represent. The premium on bullion will soar!
The "Political will" of old world Europe is about to help make our investment real. For myself, a large percentage of my wealth is being saved by going with the evolution of paper moneys: not against!
This trend is visible now and based on the forward flow of human affairs, not the backward rules of money theory!
Our future is today; if not just around the trail!
Sir Douglas; aka FOA
your: Gold - Trail – Guide
Were you able to follow all of that? This little bit gets right to the heart of the matter; the difference between paper gold and real physical bullion. Remember from Moneyness that the people's money throughout history has been credit denominated in something. The majority of exchanges up until the invention of paper money were largely on the basis of credit and trust, with accounts later cleared and imbalances settled in metal. In this way, a relatively small and stable monetary base serves a much larger economy.
But today we use that credit, that debt or liability asset as our savings, not just for trade. Now I want you to think about the fundamental difference between claims denominated in paper money versus claims denominated in gold metal. The claims denominated in paper money can be liquefied in actual base money terms by the central bank. But the claims denominated in actual gold metal cannot.
FOA: "Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced… This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed."
So claims denominated in dollars must be saved, "made whole" for the sake of the system, but claims denominated in physical metal CANNOT be saved without destroying the banks. The entire international monetary and financial system is in dire need of something to save it right now, wouldn't you agree? The whole system appears insolvable as presently priced, a Catch-22 of incomprehensible dimensions.
But the solution is not so incomprehensible, and it was never up for debate. It was baked into the cake long ago, as FOA pointed out. You may personally prefer that they simply let the system fail. But "they" are central bankers, so we can safely predict they will try something. And that something is the only thing that can happen.
The U.S. dollar and gold will both be massively expanded to recapitalize the system, and life will go on. The difference being that the dollar will be expanded in volume while physical gold bullion will be expanded through value. And through this process, all ambiguous claims, both dollar-based and metal-based will become virtually worthless, while unambiguous gold ownership will literally explode in value.
This is an historical first. Today is the first time in history where a massive transfer of wealth will transpire through the conversion of all gold on the planet into unambiguous ownership. Think about this long and hard. More than 90% of all the gold stock has been mined in the last 200 years. During that time, unambiguous, discrete (and discreet) ownership has entailed an unnecessary expense. During the gold standard years gold was the money, so it was all unallocated and ambiguously owned. Even today, most of the gold in the BB system is still on pallets, a remnant of the gold standard years. But that is changing.
It is more important than ever, right now, to make sure that you unambiguously own discrete pieces of gold. You don't want to just own "a bar of gold" at the bank, you want to own bar number JM4835 or whatever. And you certainly don't want to own a fractional interest in a bar when you can own coins down to one gram. Better yet, have your gold unambiguously in your possession, or at least under your control outside of the banking system that is still struggling to cope with this change.
Have you ever wondered why bullion banks have been opening new or decommissioned vaults and clearing space for more gold? It's not because there's more gold coming into play. It's because it takes much more space to store unambiguous, allocated gold than it does to store ambiguously owned pallets of "gold". From my post The View: A Classic Bank Run:
Here's an interesting item that I struggled to interpret until I really thought it through. Do you remember the stories about HSBC clearing out space in their vaults, or JP Morgan building new vaults? What could be the explanation for this if the aggregate gold stock is so stable? Then it occurred to me that unallocated storage is much more space-efficient because the gold sits stacked on pallets. Allocated gold often gets put into cubby holes to assist in recordkeeping. That takes up much more space. So the process of allocation after many decades of non-allocation requires an expansion of vault space. This is how I now interpret these stories.
_________________________________________________________Taking personal responsibility for your life's savings when you've always counted on "the system" to safeguard it for you is not an easy step to take. Converting your savings from ambiguous claims in the system (either dollar or gold-denominated) into unambiguous wealth is not without considerable hassle, risk and expense. But it has never been more important than right now. Conversion is early adoption, like buying the Dow sub-1,000. Conversion to unambiguous pieces you can possess is front running the reset, the global revaluation that could come at any moment. As a long-time reader wrote me just today: the window will be closed soon.
He also wrote this:
"A recent 'convert' to protecting his life savings, a friend said, 'wow, it hit me last night......'
I said, 'what?'
"Well, now I understand, all the policymakers are doing currently is making my gold worth higher in purchasing power as they annihilate my currency.....thus, why the heck would I hold something that they are destroying willingly!"
Yup, that about says it all!
歐債何時鳥?
圖片裡是接下來每個月法國、義大利、西班牙三國每月到期的債務「炸彈」，數字是以十億歐元為單位。
This looks like cannonballs and these are only the figures we can see.
"One step forward, two steps back," said Alan Clarke, UK and euro zone economist at Scotia Capital. "The euro zone leaders might as well not bother. Pack their bags, go home, enjoy the weekend and do their Christmas shopping."
http://www.jsmineset.com
This looks like cannonballs and these are only the figures we can see.
"One step forward, two steps back," said Alan Clarke, UK and euro zone economist at Scotia Capital. "The euro zone leaders might as well not bother. Pack their bags, go home, enjoy the weekend and do their Christmas shopping."
http://www.jsmineset.com
2011年12月10日星期六
Morgan Stanley Reveals Its Commodity Predictions For 2012
Gold's safe haven status could drive prices up to $2,200 per ounce
2012 average year price: $50.00 / ounce
Silver is another safe haven that is cheap relative to gold. However, silver prices are much more volatile and much more vulnerable to weak industrial demand.
索羅斯撤資周大福認購 再次看淡黃金
食羅C要買金....洗唔洗買間接用個 雞碎咁多$,買個少少股份呀....
阿彤叔都係想借 食羅C來做勢....搵下市場的水....
儘管有一眾富商朋友捧場，鄭裕彤仍難以說服索羅斯改變黃金是“終極資產泡沫”的想法。就在周大福珠寶集團有限公司於香港首次公開募股（IPO）的最後階段，原定用4000萬美元認購新股的索羅斯突然決定放棄投資。
對此，索羅斯在香港的分支機構SFM HK Management表示無法置評，截至截稿時，索羅斯基金美國方面仍未做出回應。周大福方面亦表示不便置評。
對此，索羅斯在香港的分支機構SFM HK Management表示無法置評，截至截稿時，索羅斯基金美國方面仍未做出回應。周大福方面亦表示不便置評。
周大福計劃上市募集最多28億美元，原定12月8日進行新股定價。 “現在還沒有定出最終價格，可能要到明天開會。”接近周大福的人士表示，受制於外部市場環境，高端定價的可能性不會太大。
儘管機構投資者方面已經獲得足額認購，散戶對周大福似乎仍有所保留。數據顯示，香港9家券商目前共為周大福借出6.69億港元孖展額，以公開發售集資11.03億港元計算，散戶方面未獲足額認購。
“現在市場上便宜貨很多，周大福太貴了。” 一位從事投資策略的業內人士解釋，現在市場上有很多市盈率在10倍以下的“便宜貨”，如鐵路、航運甚至石油行業的股票。而周大福2013年的預測市盈率為15至21倍，如以上限21倍計算，遠高於同類股票，如市盈率約15倍的六福珠寶及週生生。
儘管機構投資者方面已經獲得足額認購，散戶對周大福似乎仍有所保留。數據顯示，香港9家券商目前共為周大福借出6.69億港元孖展額，以公開發售集資11.03億港元計算，散戶方面未獲足額認購。
“現在市場上便宜貨很多，周大福太貴了。” 一位從事投資策略的業內人士解釋，現在市場上有很多市盈率在10倍以下的“便宜貨”，如鐵路、航運甚至石油行業的股票。而周大福2013年的預測市盈率為15至21倍，如以上限21倍計算，遠高於同類股票，如市盈率約15倍的六福珠寶及週生生。
今年，黃金顯然不是索羅斯的鍾愛之物。
今年5月，索羅斯管理基金公司向美國證交會遞交的一份文件顯示，截至3月31日，索羅斯大幅拋售其持有的SPDR Gold Trust（實物黃金支持的交易所交易基金），將持倉金額降至690萬美元，而去年第四季度末他的持倉水平還高達6.55億美元，減持幅度高達99%。同時，索羅斯還結清了500萬份價值6900萬美元的iShares黃金信託的倉位。
然而，此前認購周大福新股的舉動，卻讓市場猜測索羅斯是否開始看好黃金。
“如果索羅斯看好黃金，那就不會買周大福，而是去買黃金了。”上述從事投資策略的業內人士認為，股票與黃金仍然是兩個不同的市場。
“可能索羅斯看重的不是黃金，而是中國的零售業。”一位不願透露姓名的業內人士表示。
儘管近期黃金價格趨於波動，但本週以來，金價再次進入上升通道。
“支撐黃金價格上漲的因素依然存在。”國際資源集團執行董事表示，目前黃金市場仍然供求不平衡，大型金礦產量下降，新礦又比較少，而需求方面依然強勁。
世界黃金協會的統計數據顯示，今年第三季度，黃金需求較去年同期增長6%至1053.9噸。其中，投資需求增長達468.1噸，按年增幅高達33%。歐洲的黃金投資需求更是創下季度需求紀錄，達118.1噸，按年增幅達135%。
“從整體來說，黃金依然是比較好的長期投資工具。”前述投資策略人士指出。
索羅斯的一舉一動向來被市場看重。自去年在香港設立分支機構索羅斯基金管理香港有限公司（SFM Hong Kong Ltd.）以來，這家年輕的基金公司已經投資了正通汽車、龍湖地產和四環醫藥。在最後時刻放棄周大福IPO，是否暗示著索羅斯也開始看淡中國內地經濟？
“這應該只是個案，反映出索羅斯對整個股票市場的態度，與中國宏觀經濟環境的關係不大。”對沖基金研究公司（HFR）亞太區總監和研究主管認為，從去年中開始，全球股票市場波動加劇。 HFR的數據顯示，今年第三季度，全球對沖基金市場獲得淨流入資金86.87億美元，而在新興市場，資金淨流出額達1.97億美元。不過，該主管認為，資金淨流出並不等於新興市場正在被拋棄，“這可能更多是一種（資金）戰略配置的結果。”
高盛最近的一份報告認為，2012年，中國的表現雖有可能低於趨勢水平，但會略好於市場預期。根據其預測，明後兩年，中國的經濟增長將分別高達8.6％和8.7％。高盛亞洲首席經濟學家邁克爾·布詹南則在記者會上表示，2012年，地方政府融資平台和樓市引致“硬著陸”的風險被誇大了。
今年5月，索羅斯管理基金公司向美國證交會遞交的一份文件顯示，截至3月31日，索羅斯大幅拋售其持有的SPDR Gold Trust（實物黃金支持的交易所交易基金），將持倉金額降至690萬美元，而去年第四季度末他的持倉水平還高達6.55億美元，減持幅度高達99%。同時，索羅斯還結清了500萬份價值6900萬美元的iShares黃金信託的倉位。
然而，此前認購周大福新股的舉動，卻讓市場猜測索羅斯是否開始看好黃金。
“如果索羅斯看好黃金，那就不會買周大福，而是去買黃金了。”上述從事投資策略的業內人士認為，股票與黃金仍然是兩個不同的市場。
“可能索羅斯看重的不是黃金，而是中國的零售業。”一位不願透露姓名的業內人士表示。
儘管近期黃金價格趨於波動，但本週以來，金價再次進入上升通道。
“支撐黃金價格上漲的因素依然存在。”國際資源集團執行董事表示，目前黃金市場仍然供求不平衡，大型金礦產量下降，新礦又比較少，而需求方面依然強勁。
世界黃金協會的統計數據顯示，今年第三季度，黃金需求較去年同期增長6%至1053.9噸。其中，投資需求增長達468.1噸，按年增幅高達33%。歐洲的黃金投資需求更是創下季度需求紀錄，達118.1噸，按年增幅達135%。
“從整體來說，黃金依然是比較好的長期投資工具。”前述投資策略人士指出。
索羅斯的一舉一動向來被市場看重。自去年在香港設立分支機構索羅斯基金管理香港有限公司（SFM Hong Kong Ltd.）以來，這家年輕的基金公司已經投資了正通汽車、龍湖地產和四環醫藥。在最後時刻放棄周大福IPO，是否暗示著索羅斯也開始看淡中國內地經濟？
“這應該只是個案，反映出索羅斯對整個股票市場的態度，與中國宏觀經濟環境的關係不大。”對沖基金研究公司（HFR）亞太區總監和研究主管認為，從去年中開始，全球股票市場波動加劇。 HFR的數據顯示，今年第三季度，全球對沖基金市場獲得淨流入資金86.87億美元，而在新興市場，資金淨流出額達1.97億美元。不過，該主管認為，資金淨流出並不等於新興市場正在被拋棄，“這可能更多是一種（資金）戰略配置的結果。”
高盛最近的一份報告認為，2012年，中國的表現雖有可能低於趨勢水平，但會略好於市場預期。根據其預測，明後兩年，中國的經濟增長將分別高達8.6％和8.7％。高盛亞洲首席經濟學家邁克爾·布詹南則在記者會上表示，2012年，地方政府融資平台和樓市引致“硬著陸”的風險被誇大了。
習廣思:金融先知預言世界新秩序
好多謝Gordon 兄提議此文章。好等小弟及一眾網友，又知多的。
沒有人敢對這次峰會抱過高憧憬，乃是因為經過無數次失敗會議，無數次期望落空，德國女人執著，法國男人沉默，已經沒有人願意相信這班政客。歐洲峰會不是毫無成果，歐洲交代了一張路線圖，財政聯盟將改變歐洲政經局面，但德國仍無法交代防火牆和水喉從何來。
港股成驚弓之鳥
亞洲股市擔心歐洲重蹈覆轍，沒法達成共識，昨天全面下挫。港股跌勢最傷，恒指開市承接外圍對歐央行的失望，及後跌勢加劇，重磅指數股成為拋售目標，收報18586點，全日下跌521點，成交額546億元，沽空成交額比例7.81%。恒指技術走勢轉差，100天線或19500點到不了，並失守50天線、20天線及10線。
內地11月份CPI降至4.2%，調控壓通脹政策終於年底前有更明顯回落；事實上，央行調低存款准備金率(RRR)給出的一個訊號，就是開始看見放水空間。正如昨天提及，中央經濟工作會議遲遲未開，很大原因就是要等這個通脹數據出台。
政治局會議昨天召開，經濟工作會議很大機會在下周進行，政策消息會否為股市帶來支持？然而，通脹回落在預期之內，A股跌至32個月新低，人民幣連續第8日觸及區間下限，熱錢流走的憂慮，依然困擾內地股市。
執筆一刻，歐洲股市上升，市場忘記歐央行前一晚言論，焦點轉移至財政聯盟下一步，可能是為歐央行加碼買債鋪路。另一方面，峰會結果中，終於在私人投資者承擔債券損失上讓步，被逼要承擔損失的只針對希臘國債而已，這無疑讓銀行不須慌忙急售歐豬債，或有助穩定債息。
兜了半年後，歐洲才知決定錯誤，可惜時間不等人，穆迪在「負面觀察」後，下調法國三家銀行評級，企業資金持續撤離法國。歐洲銀行總資本缺口近1147億歐羅，西意銀行的資金缺口愈來愈大。令人意外的是，德國銀行缺口亦接近131億歐羅，但這是歐洲壓力測試的結果，事實應該比這個數字更差。
法國到日本再到美國
法國成為歐債危機最後一只骨牌的跡象，已經是不容否認的事實，銀行體系岌岌可危，主權評級瀕臨被降，失業率正在攀升，經濟明年或見衰退。薩爾科齊尋求連任，政治利益的大前提下會做出什麼決定？
最早提出法國將成為歐債危機最後一張牌的仁兄，是KyleBass，他四年前已經開始沽空希臘國債信用違約掉期。事實上，歐債骨牌是被美國次按危機推倒，但在Bass眼中，法國或是歐債危機最後一張牌，但到法國都被推倒後，最高危的是全球另一個龐大負債國，即是日本。
如果在兩年前，Bass的觀點或者會被視為語出驚人，最慘是當世界許多難以置信的預測都出現時，已經沒有太多不可能的事。Bass早前出席AmeriCatalyst2011訪談，片段可在YouTube找到，基本上是再一次詳細解釋他對全球債務危機的悲觀，在格羅斯提出的「新常態」以外，Bass的觀點可說是對債務危機引致的世界「新秩序」，作出了許多大膽預測。
其中有幾點，值得大家留意。Bass提到，這個時代是曆史上最長的和平時期，也因為債務累積程度前所未有；過去9年，全球債務由80萬億美元增加至210萬億美元，信貸市場平均每年增長12%，但全球GDP平均增長是4%，如果歐豬五國無力償債，世界根本沒有一個真正解決方法；當債務到期自然就要還債，很簡單，將會發生的是償不了債，就要進行減值。
基本上，Bass對歐債不抱期望，亦不認為德國會接受歐羅債券這件事，眼前的情況是，歐洲政治話事人是德國人，但央行行長是意大利人，歐洲日子不會好過。對他來說，長遠而言，全球需要進行去杠杆，目前我們只看到歐洲在去杠杆化，壞消息還會接踵而來。
Bass又提出，當政府在告訴大家問題最終都會解決，或者一切會好起來，投資者都不應相信，他們可能不知道自己應該做什麼，墨西哥政府在比紹貶值六成前一日，還在否認貨幣會貶值。簡言之，危機在前，不要相信政客。
盡量持更多現金
提到投資，Bass認為，投資者不應因為市盈率相對曆史數據偏低而買入股票，因為目前股票盈利狀況可以是虛假的；我們將看到股市下跌，而群眾都不知道在跌市中如何是好；現時公司盈利看起來不錯，是因為很多公司都把不良資產隱藏在資產負債表上。在他眼中，今天是歐洲，明天是日本，然後是美國，這會是很漫長的過程；而如果這個進程猜測沒錯的話，美元在中短期內還會沒事，但投資者應該持有更加多的現金。
大抵是美國人關系，Bass雖認為，美國瘋狂發債印銀紙的結局，遲早步上歐洲及日本的另一項國債去杠杆災難，但他不諱言，眼前歐洲所發生的災難，很大程度上會給美國一絲希望。
他認為，對美國政客而言，未來可能有10年時間解決問題，實際上只得3至5年；但財政部政客、聯儲局都很清楚，眼下歐洲及日本發生什麼事，當這樣的危機威脅到美國時，他們才會改變現時美國的政治路途。
2011年12月9日星期五
環球經濟 - 王冠一 歐債危機利好金價？
回nlpsonia，王sir 8號條片錄瓜左，好在佢都有出文章，補返數！
過往金融市場有「十年黃金變爛銅」的說法，主要是黃金沒有實際工業用途，亦未能生(利)息，持有黃金更要付存倉費，令投資者對黃金棄如敝屐。踏入千禧年之前，金價曾經跌至每盎司250美元，然而千禧年過後，金價卻來一記鯉魚翻身，更長升長有，不少投資者對黃金的投資價值亦已改觀。
現貨金週二(6日)收於1727.46美元，較去年底收市價的1420.47美元再升21.6%。今年年初金價走軟，1月28日曾低見1308.2美元，但很快已止跌並拾級而上，更於9月初觸及1920.74美元的紀錄新高，其後雖曾急速回吐，最低亦不過調整至1532.59美元，未有跌穿年初低位。金價於8月時升勢最洶湧，按時間推算，應該是美國失去最高評級，黃金發揮避險功能，受到投資者追捧所致。
事實上，若過去十年投資於黃金，回報令人豔羨。2001年底金價收報278.7美元，以週二收市價計算，不足十年時間累積升幅達6.2倍。翻看過去六年收市價，亦不難發覺，除了2008年全年回報僅5.2%稍遜色外，其餘5年均升幅可觀，回報最少的2005年，升幅亦有17.1%，回報最多的是2007年，升幅逾三成，而去年升幅亦接近三成。只要今年餘下十數個交易日金價不大跌，今年回報亦逾兩成，維持一貫水準。
若單看趨勢，金價並沒有急跌的誘因。上月美國投資者投入黃金ETF的資金多達36億美元，是10月投入資金8.13億的逾4倍，相比起吸金次多、投資級企債ETF的17億，亦多出1倍有多。黃金ETF近年不斷膨脹，現時市值規模已增至730億美元，僅次於標普500 ETF而排行第二。
投資者對黃金由恨變愛，原因眾多。近日投入黃金ETF的資金顯著增加，則是基於兩大原因。首先是多國央行相繼減息刺激經濟，市場預料通脹有望飆升，利好金價。最新減息的是澳洲央行於週二降息25基點，再推前則有人行於上週減存款準備金50基點，巴西央行亦減息50基點；歐洲央行於上月減息25基點，週四進一步減息的呼聲仍高唱；印度央行於10月底亦減息，減幅更多達1厘，其他近期減息的亦包括泰國和以色列央行，反映減息潮正蔓延。此外，投資者亦認為，歐洲國家要脫離債務危機，歐洲央行追隨美英日等央行採用量寬，乃不二法門。事實上，歐豬國家亦需要把負債通脹化，以減輕債務負擔，
時移世易，黃金的傳統功能，部份其實已出現了變化。例如避險功能便顯著削弱。近期歐債危機不斷惡化，對金價亦未起提振作用，最明顯是標普於週一把歐元區15國列入負面觀察名單，金價卻不升反挫。至於黃金對沖通脹的功能亦未見直接，近年歐美通脹大致受控，但金價卻照升，也許與貨幣供應氾濫，幣值下跌有關，金價近年勁升，其實是反映美元不斷貶值。此外，投資者已把黃金視為投資產品類別，尤其是過去十年金價狂飆，黃金ETF回報超過300%，標普500 ETF卻幾乎屹立不動，即使只看今年表現，黃金ETF亦有約兩成進帳，同樣與跑贏力策不前的標普500ETF。
近日金價未見再進，不排除是歐債危機開始波及意大利和法國，迫使部份機構投資者沽金套現去填?。雖然金價累積升幅已大，能否再出現另一次黃金十年，令人懷疑，但在歐債危機尚未過去，投資者對黃金的鍾愛又未出現質變前，金價每遇調整時吸納，勝算仍大。
過往金融市場有「十年黃金變爛銅」的說法，主要是黃金沒有實際工業用途，亦未能生(利)息，持有黃金更要付存倉費，令投資者對黃金棄如敝屐。踏入千禧年之前，金價曾經跌至每盎司250美元，然而千禧年過後，金價卻來一記鯉魚翻身，更長升長有，不少投資者對黃金的投資價值亦已改觀。
現貨金週二(6日)收於1727.46美元，較去年底收市價的1420.47美元再升21.6%。今年年初金價走軟，1月28日曾低見1308.2美元，但很快已止跌並拾級而上，更於9月初觸及1920.74美元的紀錄新高，其後雖曾急速回吐，最低亦不過調整至1532.59美元，未有跌穿年初低位。金價於8月時升勢最洶湧，按時間推算，應該是美國失去最高評級，黃金發揮避險功能，受到投資者追捧所致。
事實上，若過去十年投資於黃金，回報令人豔羨。2001年底金價收報278.7美元，以週二收市價計算，不足十年時間累積升幅達6.2倍。翻看過去六年收市價，亦不難發覺，除了2008年全年回報僅5.2%稍遜色外，其餘5年均升幅可觀，回報最少的2005年，升幅亦有17.1%，回報最多的是2007年，升幅逾三成，而去年升幅亦接近三成。只要今年餘下十數個交易日金價不大跌，今年回報亦逾兩成，維持一貫水準。
若單看趨勢，金價並沒有急跌的誘因。上月美國投資者投入黃金ETF的資金多達36億美元，是10月投入資金8.13億的逾4倍，相比起吸金次多、投資級企債ETF的17億，亦多出1倍有多。黃金ETF近年不斷膨脹，現時市值規模已增至730億美元，僅次於標普500 ETF而排行第二。
投資者對黃金由恨變愛，原因眾多。近日投入黃金ETF的資金顯著增加，則是基於兩大原因。首先是多國央行相繼減息刺激經濟，市場預料通脹有望飆升，利好金價。最新減息的是澳洲央行於週二降息25基點，再推前則有人行於上週減存款準備金50基點，巴西央行亦減息50基點；歐洲央行於上月減息25基點，週四進一步減息的呼聲仍高唱；印度央行於10月底亦減息，減幅更多達1厘，其他近期減息的亦包括泰國和以色列央行，反映減息潮正蔓延。此外，投資者亦認為，歐洲國家要脫離債務危機，歐洲央行追隨美英日等央行採用量寬，乃不二法門。事實上，歐豬國家亦需要把負債通脹化，以減輕債務負擔，
時移世易，黃金的傳統功能，部份其實已出現了變化。例如避險功能便顯著削弱。近期歐債危機不斷惡化，對金價亦未起提振作用，最明顯是標普於週一把歐元區15國列入負面觀察名單，金價卻不升反挫。至於黃金對沖通脹的功能亦未見直接，近年歐美通脹大致受控，但金價卻照升，也許與貨幣供應氾濫，幣值下跌有關，金價近年勁升，其實是反映美元不斷貶值。此外，投資者已把黃金視為投資產品類別，尤其是過去十年金價狂飆，黃金ETF回報超過300%，標普500 ETF卻幾乎屹立不動，即使只看今年表現，黃金ETF亦有約兩成進帳，同樣與跑贏力策不前的標普500ETF。
近日金價未見再進，不排除是歐債危機開始波及意大利和法國，迫使部份機構投資者沽金套現去填?。雖然金價累積升幅已大，能否再出現另一次黃金十年，令人懷疑，但在歐債危機尚未過去，投資者對黃金的鍾愛又未出現質變前，金價每遇調整時吸納，勝算仍大。
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