Canada's Gold Reserve Problem ... It Has None
2011年12月12日星期一
金市與歐債共舞
石林
本報上周末的社評說到「國際金融市場與歐債共舞」，上周的金市確屬如此，金價跟隨來自歐盟的消息急促地上下波動，在周初從1754元（美元．下同）跌到1702元，後竟回彈到1756元的比周初更略高位，但迅即又跌回到1704元，不過在周末仍力守1703元，最後以1711.3元收市，比前周跌1.9％。
銀市亦有類似的市況，更在周四的一天內體現了全周的波幅，即高位止步於33.22元，低位力守着31.37元，周末以32.23元收市，全周僅微跌0.7％。
歐盟峰會總算達到一定成果，二十六國首腦同意遵守新的財政整合，使歐羅暫時避過了解體的危機。這次歐洲央行處理危機的方法與美國不同，並非大舉購買毒資產，主要是向銀行提供流動性。因此歐羅滙價在弱中仍穩，商品價格向淡但無大跌。
運行到三角形尖端
回看金市的技術圖表，金價仍繼續維持在自9月初以來的一個大型的「三角形」模式內反覆上落，雖然嚴格地說該三角形的頂線和底線最近都經過略為擴闊的調節。如今此三角形快將走到它本身的尖端，亦即是說市勢將不得不選擇一個較明確的方向了。
另外，我們如果覺得上述三角形的頂線和底線不時發生擴闊性的調節，使突破訊息顯得模糊的話，那不妨採用另一走勢術語，那就是金市正在以一個「收緊中的螺旋形」（Tightening Coiling Pattern）模式來運行。但即使是如此，該螺旋形亦顯得愈發收窄，也快屆臨要作出一個方向選擇的時候了。
迄今的金市評論的主流意見依然傾向看好，但敝欄對此繼續有所保留。主要原因是歐羅雖暫免解體，但歐洲仍拿不出徹底解決危機的辦法，歐洲信貸依然在收縮，世界經濟陷入衰退的陰影依然揮之不去，商品和金銀價格繼續調整的可能性大於又再明顯攀升。
有關這點我們可從上周末的連續商品指數（CCI）圖表看到某些迹象，該指數最近繼續沿着自9月初以來的下降軌下滑，周末收市的567點已低於相鄰的前一低位570點，正在指向10月初所創的563點的今年最低水平。
資金缺乏入市興趣
在當前經濟收縮的可能性大於擴張可能性的大前提下，無怪金銀兩市的倉位狀況（COT）近數月經常顯得相當利好價格的時候，大投機者都缺乏再大規模入市的興趣，以致期金市場的未平倉合約量（O.I.）減縮至只有42萬餘張，為三年來的低水平。期銀市的O.I.現更減縮至僅得9.6萬張的低水平。我們很難想像在這樣低倉量的背景下金銀價格可以大升，即使是迫倉也沒有多少空倉要大規模回補。
上周金價回彈到1756元時即行急促再跌，這正是上文說的圖表三角形頂線水平，此行情表現無疑是強化了自1920元金市歷史高位以降的一條主要中期下降軌，除非金價很快可以重返1767元之上方可改寫這局面。
假如近日金價一直被壓在1738元之下，則恐怕近期支持1700元難再力守。萬一連1671元都棄守，便確認市勢是作出一個再向下的選擇。
銀市已早於金市棄守了一個大型「三角形」，目前處於缺乏動力狀態，日線圖的RSI和Full STO盤桓在50附近水平，MACD的「牛熊差」維持在零水平。估計34元仍是銀市的回升阻力，短期內若無法重返至33.22元之上，則恐怕31.37元難再力守。同樣地，萬一連30.66元都棄守，便說明銀市再選擇繼續向下。
我們宜留意金市快要作出方向性的選擇，但延遲至運行到「三角形」尖端才被迫突破，或許並非是一個有力突破。
本報上周末的社評說到「國際金融市場與歐債共舞」，上周的金市確屬如此，金價跟隨來自歐盟的消息急促地上下波動，在周初從1754元（美元．下同）跌到1702元，後竟回彈到1756元的比周初更略高位，但迅即又跌回到1704元，不過在周末仍力守1703元，最後以1711.3元收市，比前周跌1.9％。
銀市亦有類似的市況，更在周四的一天內體現了全周的波幅，即高位止步於33.22元，低位力守着31.37元，周末以32.23元收市，全周僅微跌0.7％。
歐盟峰會總算達到一定成果，二十六國首腦同意遵守新的財政整合，使歐羅暫時避過了解體的危機。這次歐洲央行處理危機的方法與美國不同，並非大舉購買毒資產，主要是向銀行提供流動性。因此歐羅滙價在弱中仍穩，商品價格向淡但無大跌。
運行到三角形尖端
回看金市的技術圖表，金價仍繼續維持在自9月初以來的一個大型的「三角形」模式內反覆上落，雖然嚴格地說該三角形的頂線和底線最近都經過略為擴闊的調節。如今此三角形快將走到它本身的尖端，亦即是說市勢將不得不選擇一個較明確的方向了。
另外，我們如果覺得上述三角形的頂線和底線不時發生擴闊性的調節，使突破訊息顯得模糊的話，那不妨採用另一走勢術語，那就是金市正在以一個「收緊中的螺旋形」（Tightening Coiling Pattern）模式來運行。但即使是如此，該螺旋形亦顯得愈發收窄，也快屆臨要作出一個方向選擇的時候了。
迄今的金市評論的主流意見依然傾向看好，但敝欄對此繼續有所保留。主要原因是歐羅雖暫免解體，但歐洲仍拿不出徹底解決危機的辦法，歐洲信貸依然在收縮，世界經濟陷入衰退的陰影依然揮之不去，商品和金銀價格繼續調整的可能性大於又再明顯攀升。
有關這點我們可從上周末的連續商品指數（CCI）圖表看到某些迹象，該指數最近繼續沿着自9月初以來的下降軌下滑，周末收市的567點已低於相鄰的前一低位570點，正在指向10月初所創的563點的今年最低水平。
資金缺乏入市興趣
在當前經濟收縮的可能性大於擴張可能性的大前提下，無怪金銀兩市的倉位狀況（COT）近數月經常顯得相當利好價格的時候，大投機者都缺乏再大規模入市的興趣，以致期金市場的未平倉合約量（O.I.）減縮至只有42萬餘張，為三年來的低水平。期銀市的O.I.現更減縮至僅得9.6萬張的低水平。我們很難想像在這樣低倉量的背景下金銀價格可以大升，即使是迫倉也沒有多少空倉要大規模回補。
上周金價回彈到1756元時即行急促再跌，這正是上文說的圖表三角形頂線水平，此行情表現無疑是強化了自1920元金市歷史高位以降的一條主要中期下降軌，除非金價很快可以重返1767元之上方可改寫這局面。
假如近日金價一直被壓在1738元之下，則恐怕近期支持1700元難再力守。萬一連1671元都棄守，便確認市勢是作出一個再向下的選擇。
銀市已早於金市棄守了一個大型「三角形」，目前處於缺乏動力狀態，日線圖的RSI和Full STO盤桓在50附近水平，MACD的「牛熊差」維持在零水平。估計34元仍是銀市的回升阻力，短期內若無法重返至33.22元之上，則恐怕31.37元難再力守。同樣地，萬一連30.66元都棄守，便說明銀市再選擇繼續向下。
我們宜留意金市快要作出方向性的選擇，但延遲至運行到「三角形」尖端才被迫突破，或許並非是一個有力突破。
2011年12月11日星期日
Unambiguous Wealth
Read more @ fofoa.blogspot.com
In the present monetary system, wealth is commonly held as ambiguous claims against the economy. We call it stocks, bonds, money market funds, mutual funds, etc… People hold their wealth in this way for the promise it makes of more wealth forthcoming! Sound familiar?
Now, when I say that there will actually be much more wealth forthcoming for those with **unambiguous** ownership of physical gold today, some people feel compelled to argue that their ambiguous claims have a better history of "more wealth forthcoming." And this argument is not without merit.
It is true that stocks and bonds did very well in the '80s and '90s. In fact, my own father is still waiting for the Dow to get back to 14,000 to regain the wealth he thinks he lost. The Dow beat CPI inflation hands down throughout the '80s and '90s, and that's how you know you made a good investment, by beating inflation.
The Dow entered the 1980s at $824. So if your $824 investment in 1980 had perfectly tracked official inflation, you'd have had $1,722 in 2000 and $2,264 in 2011 (according to the BLS inflation calculator). But in the Dow, your investment became $11,722 by January, 2000, and $12,045 today. So even though it hasn't done much in the last decade, the Dow still beat inflation by a large margin over the last 30 years.
Bonds also had a huge 30-year run as the Fed lowered rates from 20% down to 0%. Remember, as interest rates are lowered, the price of bonds issued at the previous higher rates rises. So bond investors do very well in a falling interest rate environment.
When we compare investment gains to inflation, what we're really doing is discounting the devaluation of the numéraire over the period of the gain. In other words, we are gauging our gain against the physical plane of goods and services which is what really matters. Another way to look at it is that the dollar was devalued against goods and services while your investment was revalued. This is what I meant when I recently wrote the following:
"I cannot see a dollar collapse without a simultaneous revaluation of something else. It's a seesaw. The dollar isn't collapsing against gold. It is collapsing against the physical plane of goods and services. That's the fulcrum, not gold. Dollar collapse is the force, goods and services the fulcrum, and gold the load. So gold is revaluing against goods and services. The gold revaluation is against the physical plane so as to fill the reserve void left by the dollar's collapse."
So why did the Dow revalue so much in the '80s and '90s and then level off in the noughties just as gold began its rise?
As it turns out, FOA wrote a post about this in November of 2001:
FOA (11/3/01; 14:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#129)
An "inflationary depression" is in the cards -- a "price deflation" doesn't have a chance!
----------------------
Back in the mid to late 70s Sir John Templeton always drove his point home for investors watching Luis Rukiser's show. (how does one spell his name,,,,, we always called him Lou Baby (smile))
Sir John, living here on Layford Cay, kept saying that the Dow of the 70s was very underpriced and would soar. He was the most absolutely correct person stating that then! But more into the mechanics of his perception: he knew that anyone buying the Dow and waiting a decade or more, would gain way beyond mere price inflation. Monetary inflation would eventually drive the perceived virtual wealth of US stocks ever higher. So high, in fact, that their percentage gains over price inflationary gains would be incredible. They were!
Truly, what John was referring to was the effects that simple "passive inflation" has on paper assets; especially in a "reserve currency's" domestic market. In this; real price inflation is mostly exported by importing "real goods" competition. This happens as we export excess credit dollars to buy things. It also has another effect; some of that same exported printed money flows in a circle and joins native investors' buying of local paper assets. When this process first starts, "passive inflation", in the form of massive money creation that's far beyond real price inflation, allows one to gain "virtual paper wealth" even before the markets price out the gains. That is; the Dow stays cheap at first then eventually rises to absorb the money inflation! As long as prices don't rise too much.
People that followed his advice, accumulated the Dow over a decade or more; buying "virtual wealth" before the fact! Stock investors made a killing by positioning their assets where this created "passive monetary inflation" would eventually end up. Even though hard money players laughed at them all thru out the 70s, 80s and early 90s! Look who is laughing now? Stocks tromped hard money plays hands down for over 20+ years! Even considering the latest fall on Wall Street.
----------------------
I want to jump in here and add a little more explanation of what he was talking about. FOA's "passive inflation" was money inflation that didn't spill over into consumer price inflation (CPI). The reason it didn't spill over is in my recent post, Moneyness. (See also: Credibility Inflation) FOA says we imported "real goods competition." That is, we ran a trade deficit and ended up with foreign goods that competed with our own domestic goods keeping all the prices down.
And because we were running a trade deficit, those dollars that paid for it came back to the US buying up the stock and bond markets rather than the price of consumer goods. So the more easy credit we created, the more our paper investments would eventually rise, with a time lag that gave "early adopters" a gain far above consumer price inflation. Now, back to FOA:
My friends:
Today, this same "virtual wealth" effect has been created again and is located in physical gold bullion. I believe Sir John has already made part of my point but I will repeat.
When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically, its domestic market will come to a point where it can no longer export "real price inflation" in the format of; "shipping its excess currency outside its borders". This happens because internal money inflation, that is super currency printing, is increased so much that it overwhelms even its export flow. Worse, even that export flow later tumbles as the fiat falls on exchange markets.
The effect is that local "passive inflation", built up over decades and fully reflected in "Sir John's" paper assets, spreads out as "aggressive inflation" and hyper price rises begin. In this action, the very same wealth effect that was eventually priced into "John's" Dow stocks and other assets, begins a long march of being priced into real gold.
Anyone that has accumulated physical gold over this past long period was doing the exact same thing Dow buyers of the late 60s and early 70s were doing: ------ saving "wealth" as unpriced "virtual wealth" stored up over that "passive inflation" period. ---
----------------------
As "political will" begins to impact the economies of the US,
our old "virtual wealth" that is no longer in the form of "passive inflation" nor limited to the currency, and is openly displayed in our vast sea of paper assets values including stocks, bonds--------
must now be defended in the open with official printed money flow.
---------------
Me again. Notice he says, "When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically…" and then, "As 'political will' begins to impact the economies of the US…" What he's talking about is the political will of U.S. trading partners to support our trade deficit by stuffing their reserves with U.S. Treasuries, and again it's in Moneyness that this is ending today. At the time FOA wrote that, the "political will" of Europe had already shifted away from the dollar, today it's China.
More from FOA:
The "virtual wealth" in gold, saved over years by patient investors, will also be priced to market in this process.
Never mind that during the Dow years paper gold markets could not work in parallel with all the other asset gains; it couldn't. Hard money players, trying to somehow play the Dow's game, never caught on to what was happening. Instead of buying "virtual wealth" by saving real gold; they bought leveraged bets that gold would be priced correctly during the "paper asset" years.
Obviously, this "trade" failed hard money players as the waves of value from other paper gains and derivatives leverage were employed against their every long bet on gold. Not only that; the "virtual wealth" in gold was never opened for them with the super price inflation they all thought was coming during that era!
Now that the paper game is about to stop for the Dow, it will also cut off the leverage of gold bets. Just as the real game begins.
The reason for this is that our massive, decades-long gains in our stock markets did not bankrupt the leverage in the money system. Whereas any massive rise in physical gold values cannot be priced into "derivative gold" without crashing the system.
Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced; not create new loses by liquefying the leverage that's countering your play!
This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed.
------
In this perception USAGOLD has been guiding its clients, and now the world, in much the same way Sir John did decades ago.
"Buy what has value at the greatest discount and wait for the politics of money to price your new savings correctly"!
The politics of wealth today is centered around gold bullion and only gold bullion: that is where the wealth and power will be manifest: this is where the gains will be! To bet on the rest of the hard market; is to bet against the coming inflation making your asset whole!
Place as much of your wealth in physical gold as your understanding allows and save this "virtual wealth" of the ages today: waiting for it to become real wealth, priced correctly in the marketplace, tomorrow.
Make no mistake, the wealth is there "but only there in bullion"! Because a free bullion market cannot be denied or controlled
----- when it stands between the opposite goals of political powers! ---
In this: it will separate from the politically crushing reality the current dollar-based paper gold markets represent. The premium on bullion will soar!
The "Political will" of old world Europe is about to help make our investment real. For myself, a large percentage of my wealth is being saved by going with the evolution of paper moneys: not against!
This trend is visible now and based on the forward flow of human affairs, not the backward rules of money theory!
Our future is today; if not just around the trail!
Sir Douglas; aka FOA
your: Gold - Trail – Guide
Were you able to follow all of that? This little bit gets right to the heart of the matter; the difference between paper gold and real physical bullion. Remember from Moneyness that the people's money throughout history has been credit denominated in something. The majority of exchanges up until the invention of paper money were largely on the basis of credit and trust, with accounts later cleared and imbalances settled in metal. In this way, a relatively small and stable monetary base serves a much larger economy.
But today we use that credit, that debt or liability asset as our savings, not just for trade. Now I want you to think about the fundamental difference between claims denominated in paper money versus claims denominated in gold metal. The claims denominated in paper money can be liquefied in actual base money terms by the central bank. But the claims denominated in actual gold metal cannot.
FOA: "Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced… This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed."
So claims denominated in dollars must be saved, "made whole" for the sake of the system, but claims denominated in physical metal CANNOT be saved without destroying the banks. The entire international monetary and financial system is in dire need of something to save it right now, wouldn't you agree? The whole system appears insolvable as presently priced, a Catch-22 of incomprehensible dimensions.
But the solution is not so incomprehensible, and it was never up for debate. It was baked into the cake long ago, as FOA pointed out. You may personally prefer that they simply let the system fail. But "they" are central bankers, so we can safely predict they will try something. And that something is the only thing that can happen.
The U.S. dollar and gold will both be massively expanded to recapitalize the system, and life will go on. The difference being that the dollar will be expanded in volume while physical gold bullion will be expanded through value. And through this process, all ambiguous claims, both dollar-based and metal-based will become virtually worthless, while unambiguous gold ownership will literally explode in value.
This is an historical first. Today is the first time in history where a massive transfer of wealth will transpire through the conversion of all gold on the planet into unambiguous ownership. Think about this long and hard. More than 90% of all the gold stock has been mined in the last 200 years. During that time, unambiguous, discrete (and discreet) ownership has entailed an unnecessary expense. During the gold standard years gold was the money, so it was all unallocated and ambiguously owned. Even today, most of the gold in the BB system is still on pallets, a remnant of the gold standard years. But that is changing.
It is more important than ever, right now, to make sure that you unambiguously own discrete pieces of gold. You don't want to just own "a bar of gold" at the bank, you want to own bar number JM4835 or whatever. And you certainly don't want to own a fractional interest in a bar when you can own coins down to one gram. Better yet, have your gold unambiguously in your possession, or at least under your control outside of the banking system that is still struggling to cope with this change.
Have you ever wondered why bullion banks have been opening new or decommissioned vaults and clearing space for more gold? It's not because there's more gold coming into play. It's because it takes much more space to store unambiguous, allocated gold than it does to store ambiguously owned pallets of "gold". From my post The View: A Classic Bank Run:
Here's an interesting item that I struggled to interpret until I really thought it through. Do you remember the stories about HSBC clearing out space in their vaults, or JP Morgan building new vaults? What could be the explanation for this if the aggregate gold stock is so stable? Then it occurred to me that unallocated storage is much more space-efficient because the gold sits stacked on pallets. Allocated gold often gets put into cubby holes to assist in recordkeeping. That takes up much more space. So the process of allocation after many decades of non-allocation requires an expansion of vault space. This is how I now interpret these stories.
_________________________________________________________
Taking personal responsibility for your life's savings when you've always counted on "the system" to safeguard it for you is not an easy step to take. Converting your savings from ambiguous claims in the system (either dollar or gold-denominated) into unambiguous wealth is not without considerable hassle, risk and expense. But it has never been more important than right now. Conversion is early adoption, like buying the Dow sub-1,000. Conversion to unambiguous pieces you can possess is front running the reset, the global revaluation that could come at any moment. As a long-time reader wrote me just today: the window will be closed soon.
He also wrote this:
"A recent 'convert' to protecting his life savings, a friend said, 'wow, it hit me last night......'
I said, 'what?'
"Well, now I understand, all the policymakers are doing currently is making my gold worth higher in purchasing power as they annihilate my currency.....thus, why the heck would I hold something that they are destroying willingly!"
Yup, that about says it all!
In the present monetary system, wealth is commonly held as ambiguous claims against the economy. We call it stocks, bonds, money market funds, mutual funds, etc… People hold their wealth in this way for the promise it makes of more wealth forthcoming! Sound familiar?
Now, when I say that there will actually be much more wealth forthcoming for those with **unambiguous** ownership of physical gold today, some people feel compelled to argue that their ambiguous claims have a better history of "more wealth forthcoming." And this argument is not without merit.
It is true that stocks and bonds did very well in the '80s and '90s. In fact, my own father is still waiting for the Dow to get back to 14,000 to regain the wealth he thinks he lost. The Dow beat CPI inflation hands down throughout the '80s and '90s, and that's how you know you made a good investment, by beating inflation.
The Dow entered the 1980s at $824. So if your $824 investment in 1980 had perfectly tracked official inflation, you'd have had $1,722 in 2000 and $2,264 in 2011 (according to the BLS inflation calculator). But in the Dow, your investment became $11,722 by January, 2000, and $12,045 today. So even though it hasn't done much in the last decade, the Dow still beat inflation by a large margin over the last 30 years.
Bonds also had a huge 30-year run as the Fed lowered rates from 20% down to 0%. Remember, as interest rates are lowered, the price of bonds issued at the previous higher rates rises. So bond investors do very well in a falling interest rate environment.
When we compare investment gains to inflation, what we're really doing is discounting the devaluation of the numéraire over the period of the gain. In other words, we are gauging our gain against the physical plane of goods and services which is what really matters. Another way to look at it is that the dollar was devalued against goods and services while your investment was revalued. This is what I meant when I recently wrote the following:
"I cannot see a dollar collapse without a simultaneous revaluation of something else. It's a seesaw. The dollar isn't collapsing against gold. It is collapsing against the physical plane of goods and services. That's the fulcrum, not gold. Dollar collapse is the force, goods and services the fulcrum, and gold the load. So gold is revaluing against goods and services. The gold revaluation is against the physical plane so as to fill the reserve void left by the dollar's collapse."
As it turns out, FOA wrote a post about this in November of 2001:
FOA (11/3/01; 14:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#129)
An "inflationary depression" is in the cards -- a "price deflation" doesn't have a chance!
----------------------
Back in the mid to late 70s Sir John Templeton always drove his point home for investors watching Luis Rukiser's show. (how does one spell his name,,,,, we always called him Lou Baby (smile))
Sir John, living here on Layford Cay, kept saying that the Dow of the 70s was very underpriced and would soar. He was the most absolutely correct person stating that then! But more into the mechanics of his perception: he knew that anyone buying the Dow and waiting a decade or more, would gain way beyond mere price inflation. Monetary inflation would eventually drive the perceived virtual wealth of US stocks ever higher. So high, in fact, that their percentage gains over price inflationary gains would be incredible. They were!
Truly, what John was referring to was the effects that simple "passive inflation" has on paper assets; especially in a "reserve currency's" domestic market. In this; real price inflation is mostly exported by importing "real goods" competition. This happens as we export excess credit dollars to buy things. It also has another effect; some of that same exported printed money flows in a circle and joins native investors' buying of local paper assets. When this process first starts, "passive inflation", in the form of massive money creation that's far beyond real price inflation, allows one to gain "virtual paper wealth" even before the markets price out the gains. That is; the Dow stays cheap at first then eventually rises to absorb the money inflation! As long as prices don't rise too much.
People that followed his advice, accumulated the Dow over a decade or more; buying "virtual wealth" before the fact! Stock investors made a killing by positioning their assets where this created "passive monetary inflation" would eventually end up. Even though hard money players laughed at them all thru out the 70s, 80s and early 90s! Look who is laughing now? Stocks tromped hard money plays hands down for over 20+ years! Even considering the latest fall on Wall Street.
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I want to jump in here and add a little more explanation of what he was talking about. FOA's "passive inflation" was money inflation that didn't spill over into consumer price inflation (CPI). The reason it didn't spill over is in my recent post, Moneyness. (See also: Credibility Inflation) FOA says we imported "real goods competition." That is, we ran a trade deficit and ended up with foreign goods that competed with our own domestic goods keeping all the prices down.
And because we were running a trade deficit, those dollars that paid for it came back to the US buying up the stock and bond markets rather than the price of consumer goods. So the more easy credit we created, the more our paper investments would eventually rise, with a time lag that gave "early adopters" a gain far above consumer price inflation. Now, back to FOA:
My friends:
Today, this same "virtual wealth" effect has been created again and is located in physical gold bullion. I believe Sir John has already made part of my point but I will repeat.
When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically, its domestic market will come to a point where it can no longer export "real price inflation" in the format of; "shipping its excess currency outside its borders". This happens because internal money inflation, that is super currency printing, is increased so much that it overwhelms even its export flow. Worse, even that export flow later tumbles as the fiat falls on exchange markets.
The effect is that local "passive inflation", built up over decades and fully reflected in "Sir John's" paper assets, spreads out as "aggressive inflation" and hyper price rises begin. In this action, the very same wealth effect that was eventually priced into "John's" Dow stocks and other assets, begins a long march of being priced into real gold.
Anyone that has accumulated physical gold over this past long period was doing the exact same thing Dow buyers of the late 60s and early 70s were doing: ------ saving "wealth" as unpriced "virtual wealth" stored up over that "passive inflation" period. ---
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As "political will" begins to impact the economies of the US,
our old "virtual wealth" that is no longer in the form of "passive inflation" nor limited to the currency, and is openly displayed in our vast sea of paper assets values including stocks, bonds--------
must now be defended in the open with official printed money flow.
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Me again. Notice he says, "When a currency system comes to the end of its reserve use, I'm speaking politically…" and then, "As 'political will' begins to impact the economies of the US…" What he's talking about is the political will of U.S. trading partners to support our trade deficit by stuffing their reserves with U.S. Treasuries, and again it's in Moneyness that this is ending today. At the time FOA wrote that, the "political will" of Europe had already shifted away from the dollar, today it's China.
More from FOA:
The "virtual wealth" in gold, saved over years by patient investors, will also be priced to market in this process.
Never mind that during the Dow years paper gold markets could not work in parallel with all the other asset gains; it couldn't. Hard money players, trying to somehow play the Dow's game, never caught on to what was happening. Instead of buying "virtual wealth" by saving real gold; they bought leveraged bets that gold would be priced correctly during the "paper asset" years.
Obviously, this "trade" failed hard money players as the waves of value from other paper gains and derivatives leverage were employed against their every long bet on gold. Not only that; the "virtual wealth" in gold was never opened for them with the super price inflation they all thought was coming during that era!
Now that the paper game is about to stop for the Dow, it will also cut off the leverage of gold bets. Just as the real game begins.
The reason for this is that our massive, decades-long gains in our stock markets did not bankrupt the leverage in the money system. Whereas any massive rise in physical gold values cannot be priced into "derivative gold" without crashing the system.
Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced; not create new loses by liquefying the leverage that's countering your play!
This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed.
------
In this perception USAGOLD has been guiding its clients, and now the world, in much the same way Sir John did decades ago.
"Buy what has value at the greatest discount and wait for the politics of money to price your new savings correctly"!
The politics of wealth today is centered around gold bullion and only gold bullion: that is where the wealth and power will be manifest: this is where the gains will be! To bet on the rest of the hard market; is to bet against the coming inflation making your asset whole!
Place as much of your wealth in physical gold as your understanding allows and save this "virtual wealth" of the ages today: waiting for it to become real wealth, priced correctly in the marketplace, tomorrow.
Make no mistake, the wealth is there "but only there in bullion"! Because a free bullion market cannot be denied or controlled
----- when it stands between the opposite goals of political powers! ---
In this: it will separate from the politically crushing reality the current dollar-based paper gold markets represent. The premium on bullion will soar!
The "Political will" of old world Europe is about to help make our investment real. For myself, a large percentage of my wealth is being saved by going with the evolution of paper moneys: not against!
This trend is visible now and based on the forward flow of human affairs, not the backward rules of money theory!
Our future is today; if not just around the trail!
Sir Douglas; aka FOA
your: Gold - Trail – Guide
Were you able to follow all of that? This little bit gets right to the heart of the matter; the difference between paper gold and real physical bullion. Remember from Moneyness that the people's money throughout history has been credit denominated in something. The majority of exchanges up until the invention of paper money were largely on the basis of credit and trust, with accounts later cleared and imbalances settled in metal. In this way, a relatively small and stable monetary base serves a much larger economy.
But today we use that credit, that debt or liability asset as our savings, not just for trade. Now I want you to think about the fundamental difference between claims denominated in paper money versus claims denominated in gold metal. The claims denominated in paper money can be liquefied in actual base money terms by the central bank. But the claims denominated in actual gold metal cannot.
FOA: "Remember; in political inflations, money is printed to save the assets as they are currently priced… This paper gold market will be cashed out at prices far below real bullion trading so as to inflate further the books of the Bullion Banks,,,,,, not destroy them. At least this is how the US side will proceed."
So claims denominated in dollars must be saved, "made whole" for the sake of the system, but claims denominated in physical metal CANNOT be saved without destroying the banks. The entire international monetary and financial system is in dire need of something to save it right now, wouldn't you agree? The whole system appears insolvable as presently priced, a Catch-22 of incomprehensible dimensions.
But the solution is not so incomprehensible, and it was never up for debate. It was baked into the cake long ago, as FOA pointed out. You may personally prefer that they simply let the system fail. But "they" are central bankers, so we can safely predict they will try something. And that something is the only thing that can happen.
The U.S. dollar and gold will both be massively expanded to recapitalize the system, and life will go on. The difference being that the dollar will be expanded in volume while physical gold bullion will be expanded through value. And through this process, all ambiguous claims, both dollar-based and metal-based will become virtually worthless, while unambiguous gold ownership will literally explode in value.
This is an historical first. Today is the first time in history where a massive transfer of wealth will transpire through the conversion of all gold on the planet into unambiguous ownership. Think about this long and hard. More than 90% of all the gold stock has been mined in the last 200 years. During that time, unambiguous, discrete (and discreet) ownership has entailed an unnecessary expense. During the gold standard years gold was the money, so it was all unallocated and ambiguously owned. Even today, most of the gold in the BB system is still on pallets, a remnant of the gold standard years. But that is changing.
It is more important than ever, right now, to make sure that you unambiguously own discrete pieces of gold. You don't want to just own "a bar of gold" at the bank, you want to own bar number JM4835 or whatever. And you certainly don't want to own a fractional interest in a bar when you can own coins down to one gram. Better yet, have your gold unambiguously in your possession, or at least under your control outside of the banking system that is still struggling to cope with this change.
Have you ever wondered why bullion banks have been opening new or decommissioned vaults and clearing space for more gold? It's not because there's more gold coming into play. It's because it takes much more space to store unambiguous, allocated gold than it does to store ambiguously owned pallets of "gold". From my post The View: A Classic Bank Run:
Here's an interesting item that I struggled to interpret until I really thought it through. Do you remember the stories about HSBC clearing out space in their vaults, or JP Morgan building new vaults? What could be the explanation for this if the aggregate gold stock is so stable? Then it occurred to me that unallocated storage is much more space-efficient because the gold sits stacked on pallets. Allocated gold often gets put into cubby holes to assist in recordkeeping. That takes up much more space. So the process of allocation after many decades of non-allocation requires an expansion of vault space. This is how I now interpret these stories.
_________________________________________________________Taking personal responsibility for your life's savings when you've always counted on "the system" to safeguard it for you is not an easy step to take. Converting your savings from ambiguous claims in the system (either dollar or gold-denominated) into unambiguous wealth is not without considerable hassle, risk and expense. But it has never been more important than right now. Conversion is early adoption, like buying the Dow sub-1,000. Conversion to unambiguous pieces you can possess is front running the reset, the global revaluation that could come at any moment. As a long-time reader wrote me just today: the window will be closed soon.
He also wrote this:
"A recent 'convert' to protecting his life savings, a friend said, 'wow, it hit me last night......'
I said, 'what?'
"Well, now I understand, all the policymakers are doing currently is making my gold worth higher in purchasing power as they annihilate my currency.....thus, why the heck would I hold something that they are destroying willingly!"
Yup, that about says it all!
歐債何時鳥?
圖片裡是接下來每個月法國、義大利、西班牙三國每月到期的債務「炸彈」，數字是以十億歐元為單位。
This looks like cannonballs and these are only the figures we can see.
"One step forward, two steps back," said Alan Clarke, UK and euro zone economist at Scotia Capital. "The euro zone leaders might as well not bother. Pack their bags, go home, enjoy the weekend and do their Christmas shopping."
http://www.jsmineset.com
This looks like cannonballs and these are only the figures we can see.
"One step forward, two steps back," said Alan Clarke, UK and euro zone economist at Scotia Capital. "The euro zone leaders might as well not bother. Pack their bags, go home, enjoy the weekend and do their Christmas shopping."
http://www.jsmineset.com
2011年12月10日星期六
Morgan Stanley Reveals Its Commodity Predictions For 2012
Gold's safe haven status could drive prices up to $2,200 per ounce
2012 average year price: $50.00 / ounce
Silver is another safe haven that is cheap relative to gold. However, silver prices are much more volatile and much more vulnerable to weak industrial demand.
索羅斯撤資周大福認購 再次看淡黃金
食羅C要買金....洗唔洗買間接用個 雞碎咁多$,買個少少股份呀....
阿彤叔都係想借 食羅C來做勢....搵下市場的水....
儘管有一眾富商朋友捧場，鄭裕彤仍難以說服索羅斯改變黃金是“終極資產泡沫”的想法。就在周大福珠寶集團有限公司於香港首次公開募股（IPO）的最後階段，原定用4000萬美元認購新股的索羅斯突然決定放棄投資。
對此，索羅斯在香港的分支機構SFM HK Management表示無法置評，截至截稿時，索羅斯基金美國方面仍未做出回應。周大福方面亦表示不便置評。
對此，索羅斯在香港的分支機構SFM HK Management表示無法置評，截至截稿時，索羅斯基金美國方面仍未做出回應。周大福方面亦表示不便置評。
周大福計劃上市募集最多28億美元，原定12月8日進行新股定價。 “現在還沒有定出最終價格，可能要到明天開會。”接近周大福的人士表示，受制於外部市場環境，高端定價的可能性不會太大。
儘管機構投資者方面已經獲得足額認購，散戶對周大福似乎仍有所保留。數據顯示，香港9家券商目前共為周大福借出6.69億港元孖展額，以公開發售集資11.03億港元計算，散戶方面未獲足額認購。
“現在市場上便宜貨很多，周大福太貴了。” 一位從事投資策略的業內人士解釋，現在市場上有很多市盈率在10倍以下的“便宜貨”，如鐵路、航運甚至石油行業的股票。而周大福2013年的預測市盈率為15至21倍，如以上限21倍計算，遠高於同類股票，如市盈率約15倍的六福珠寶及週生生。
儘管機構投資者方面已經獲得足額認購，散戶對周大福似乎仍有所保留。數據顯示，香港9家券商目前共為周大福借出6.69億港元孖展額，以公開發售集資11.03億港元計算，散戶方面未獲足額認購。
“現在市場上便宜貨很多，周大福太貴了。” 一位從事投資策略的業內人士解釋，現在市場上有很多市盈率在10倍以下的“便宜貨”，如鐵路、航運甚至石油行業的股票。而周大福2013年的預測市盈率為15至21倍，如以上限21倍計算，遠高於同類股票，如市盈率約15倍的六福珠寶及週生生。
今年，黃金顯然不是索羅斯的鍾愛之物。
今年5月，索羅斯管理基金公司向美國證交會遞交的一份文件顯示，截至3月31日，索羅斯大幅拋售其持有的SPDR Gold Trust（實物黃金支持的交易所交易基金），將持倉金額降至690萬美元，而去年第四季度末他的持倉水平還高達6.55億美元，減持幅度高達99%。同時，索羅斯還結清了500萬份價值6900萬美元的iShares黃金信託的倉位。
然而，此前認購周大福新股的舉動，卻讓市場猜測索羅斯是否開始看好黃金。
“如果索羅斯看好黃金，那就不會買周大福，而是去買黃金了。”上述從事投資策略的業內人士認為，股票與黃金仍然是兩個不同的市場。
“可能索羅斯看重的不是黃金，而是中國的零售業。”一位不願透露姓名的業內人士表示。
儘管近期黃金價格趨於波動，但本週以來，金價再次進入上升通道。
“支撐黃金價格上漲的因素依然存在。”國際資源集團執行董事表示，目前黃金市場仍然供求不平衡，大型金礦產量下降，新礦又比較少，而需求方面依然強勁。
世界黃金協會的統計數據顯示，今年第三季度，黃金需求較去年同期增長6%至1053.9噸。其中，投資需求增長達468.1噸，按年增幅高達33%。歐洲的黃金投資需求更是創下季度需求紀錄，達118.1噸，按年增幅達135%。
“從整體來說，黃金依然是比較好的長期投資工具。”前述投資策略人士指出。
索羅斯的一舉一動向來被市場看重。自去年在香港設立分支機構索羅斯基金管理香港有限公司（SFM Hong Kong Ltd.）以來，這家年輕的基金公司已經投資了正通汽車、龍湖地產和四環醫藥。在最後時刻放棄周大福IPO，是否暗示著索羅斯也開始看淡中國內地經濟？
“這應該只是個案，反映出索羅斯對整個股票市場的態度，與中國宏觀經濟環境的關係不大。”對沖基金研究公司（HFR）亞太區總監和研究主管認為，從去年中開始，全球股票市場波動加劇。 HFR的數據顯示，今年第三季度，全球對沖基金市場獲得淨流入資金86.87億美元，而在新興市場，資金淨流出額達1.97億美元。不過，該主管認為，資金淨流出並不等於新興市場正在被拋棄，“這可能更多是一種（資金）戰略配置的結果。”
高盛最近的一份報告認為，2012年，中國的表現雖有可能低於趨勢水平，但會略好於市場預期。根據其預測，明後兩年，中國的經濟增長將分別高達8.6％和8.7％。高盛亞洲首席經濟學家邁克爾·布詹南則在記者會上表示，2012年，地方政府融資平台和樓市引致“硬著陸”的風險被誇大了。
今年5月，索羅斯管理基金公司向美國證交會遞交的一份文件顯示，截至3月31日，索羅斯大幅拋售其持有的SPDR Gold Trust（實物黃金支持的交易所交易基金），將持倉金額降至690萬美元，而去年第四季度末他的持倉水平還高達6.55億美元，減持幅度高達99%。同時，索羅斯還結清了500萬份價值6900萬美元的iShares黃金信託的倉位。
然而，此前認購周大福新股的舉動，卻讓市場猜測索羅斯是否開始看好黃金。
“如果索羅斯看好黃金，那就不會買周大福，而是去買黃金了。”上述從事投資策略的業內人士認為，股票與黃金仍然是兩個不同的市場。
“可能索羅斯看重的不是黃金，而是中國的零售業。”一位不願透露姓名的業內人士表示。
儘管近期黃金價格趨於波動，但本週以來，金價再次進入上升通道。
“支撐黃金價格上漲的因素依然存在。”國際資源集團執行董事表示，目前黃金市場仍然供求不平衡，大型金礦產量下降，新礦又比較少，而需求方面依然強勁。
世界黃金協會的統計數據顯示，今年第三季度，黃金需求較去年同期增長6%至1053.9噸。其中，投資需求增長達468.1噸，按年增幅高達33%。歐洲的黃金投資需求更是創下季度需求紀錄，達118.1噸，按年增幅達135%。
“從整體來說，黃金依然是比較好的長期投資工具。”前述投資策略人士指出。
索羅斯的一舉一動向來被市場看重。自去年在香港設立分支機構索羅斯基金管理香港有限公司（SFM Hong Kong Ltd.）以來，這家年輕的基金公司已經投資了正通汽車、龍湖地產和四環醫藥。在最後時刻放棄周大福IPO，是否暗示著索羅斯也開始看淡中國內地經濟？
“這應該只是個案，反映出索羅斯對整個股票市場的態度，與中國宏觀經濟環境的關係不大。”對沖基金研究公司（HFR）亞太區總監和研究主管認為，從去年中開始，全球股票市場波動加劇。 HFR的數據顯示，今年第三季度，全球對沖基金市場獲得淨流入資金86.87億美元，而在新興市場，資金淨流出額達1.97億美元。不過，該主管認為，資金淨流出並不等於新興市場正在被拋棄，“這可能更多是一種（資金）戰略配置的結果。”
高盛最近的一份報告認為，2012年，中國的表現雖有可能低於趨勢水平，但會略好於市場預期。根據其預測，明後兩年，中國的經濟增長將分別高達8.6％和8.7％。高盛亞洲首席經濟學家邁克爾·布詹南則在記者會上表示，2012年，地方政府融資平台和樓市引致“硬著陸”的風險被誇大了。
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