2012年8月11日星期六

Patty Myers is Disgusted

http://www.coloradogold.com







Sometimes I don't have to write a column, as others do it for me!  Check below, and thanks to Dave F


Senator Alan Simpson from Wyoming, is co-chair of Obama's deficit commission, and has called senior citizens the greediest generation, and compared Social Security to a milk cow with 310 million teats.  Patty Myers in Montana, is a little ticked off.  Here's her letter to the Senator:


"Hey Alan, let's get a few things straight.  As a career politician, you have been on the public dole for FIFTY YEARS.  I have been paying Social Security taxes for 48 years (since I was 15, and am now 63).  My Social Security payments, and those of millions of other Americans, were safely tucked away in an interest bearing account for decades, until you political pukes decided to raid the account and give OUR money to a bunch of zero ambition losers in return for votes.  This bankrupted the system, and turned Social Security into a Ponzi scheme that would have made Bernie Madoff proud.


"Recently, just like Charlie Brown and Lucy, you and your ilk pulled the proverbial football away from millions of American seniors nearing retirement age, and moved the goalposts for full retirement from age 65, to age 67.  NOW, you and your shill commission are proposing to move the goalposts YET AGAIN.


"Myself, and millions of other Americans, have been paying into Medicare from day one, and now you and your moronic compatriots, propose to change the rules of the game.  Why?  because you idiots mismanaged other parts of the economy to such an extent, that you need to steal money from Medicare to pay the bills, and you have spent more than any administration in history.


"We have been paying income taxes our entire lives, and now you propose to increase our taxes yet again.  Why?  Because you incompetent bastards spent our money so profligately, that you just keep on spending, even after you ran out of money to spend.  Now, you come to the American Taxpayers, and say you need more to pay off YOUR debt, not ours. To add insult to injury, you label us as "greedy" for calling BS on your incompetence.  Well, Captain BS, I have a few questions for YOU.


"(1) How much money have you earned from the American taxpayers during your pathetic 50 year political career?


"(2)  At what age did you retire from your pitiable political career, and how much are you receiving in annual retirement benefits from the American taxpayers?


"(3)  How much do you pay for YOUR government provided health insurance?


"(4)  What cuts in YOUR retirement and healthcare benefits are you proposing in your disgusting deficit reduction proposal, or as usual, have you exempted yourself and your political cronies?


"It is you, Captain BS, and your political co-conspirators called 'Congress,' who are the greedy ones.  It is You and your fellow nut cases, who have bankrupted America and stolen the American Dream from millions of loyal, patriotic taxpayers.  And for what?  Votes!  That's right, sir.  You and yours, have bankrupted America for the sole purpose of advancing your  dismal political careers.  You know it, and you know that we know it.  You can take that to the bank, you miserable son of a bitch."


Is there any possible way of expressing it any better?  535 Representatives and Senators, of both parties, over the last 80 years, have spent and spent and spent, and without permission of the taxpayers, who, in vain, tried to vote sanity, and failed.  If Mitt Romney gets elected, will he do any better than George Bush?  Probably not, but as we have just seen, the Tea Party's power is still effective, and Tea Party candidates can indeed capture the Senate (only four seats needed), and keep the House.  Send the money to Tea Party Express, 8795 Folsom Blvd. Suite 103, Sacramento, CA 95826-3720.  We've GOT to save America!


On the subject of metals prices:  The gold-silver ratio has been hovering around 58 to 1, which means that silver is a huge bargain.  Why has gold gone up further than silver?  Simply because the entire world is scared out of their wits as economies die or grow weaker, thanks to debts being out of control and being paid with printing press money.  The world wants safety, and they consider gold to be safety, so they are buying gold.  That's fine, but what most do not realize is that silver is equal safety, and those in the know, if they have a place to store it, are buying silver.  Hence, the high ratio. Thousands of years ago, the first coin was made of silver, not gold.  Remember, it should be 16 to 1, not 58 to 1.  Had we a 16 to 1 gold-silver ratio today, silver would be $100 an ounce, rather than $28.  I believe that a 16 to 1 ratio will eventually exist, as it has throughout recorded history.

領先全球! 台灣發現人體抗癌因子

【台灣醒報記者謝哲晏台北報導】癌症治療新突破,台灣首度發現抗癌因子!國家衛生研究院經過10年努力研究後,終於發現人類細胞內存有自行抗癌的護衛因子,「人體本身具有抗癌能力!」帶領研究團隊的國衛院院長伍焜玉興奮表示,這是科學史上第一次發現人體有抗癌能力,並期待此研究成果可以發展成藥物,造福社會。

伍焜玉所帶領的研究團隊發現,人類細胞內有可自行抗癌的護衛因子「5-MTP」,可以對抗身體發炎現象及癌症的轉移與生長,是癌症治療科學研究上的重大發展。這個重大的發現立刻被「美國國家科學院刊」接受,並刊登於8月號的期刊當中。

研究團隊將肝癌腫瘤植入老鼠體內,並將老鼠分成兩批,其中一批注射「5-MTP」護衛因子,另一批則不注射。50天後發現注射「5-MTP」的肺癌鼠身上的腫瘤被有效的抑制近50%,並且只有10%癌細胞轉移到肺部。

「人體的發炎現象原本是用來保護身體的,但是發炎現象擴大後卻會破壞身體細胞。」伍焜玉在10幾年前發現,「還氧化酵素Cox-2」在人體內含量過高時,會引起嚴重的發炎現象,進而促進癌症的生長與轉移。研究中並指出,發炎現象可能與大腸癌、攝護腺癌、口腔癌、肺癌等有密切關係。

經國衛院進一步研究後發現,人體內的纖維細胞會釋出抑止人類體中Cox-2的「5-MTP」護衛因子,並證明此因子具有消炎抗癌的功能。伍焜玉表示,若此護衛因子未來能被藥物化,就有機會治療因發炎引起的癌症,並降低敗血性休克的現象

Bernanke Says Student Loans Won't Cause Crisis

OUCH, the last time Bernanke was this confident was when he stated that Sub-prime mortgages would not threaten the broader economy.

$1 Trillion in student loans, all held by people who were able to avoid the cost of their behavior, and all backed by the government. From Bernanke "I don't think it's a financial stability issue to the same extent that, say, mortgage debt was in the last crisis because most of it is held not by financial institutions but by the federal government." You really can't make this stuff up, so there you have it folks, nothing to see here, please-please go about your business and enjoy your next shopping experience in the USA.

Two MAJOR problems, #1 the debt is backed by the Federal Government (taxpayers). #2 The debt is held by a generation that is struggling to find work, in fact even those grads that do find work, 44% of them aren't finding work in jobs that they went to school for. Instead their Environmental Science Degree is helping them serve tables at the local North Woods Inn Steak House.

The student loan bubble will absolutely burst and of course it will spread into the broader economy, what do you think is going to happen when young people struggle to pay these loans off? This is money that will be subtracted from their expected American consumerism

2012年8月10日星期五

Marc Faber : Owning Physical Gold is an Insurance , an absolute necessity



Q: What's your view on gold right now?

Marc Faber :
This is a controversial subject because some people think it’s a bubble. My view is it’s not a bubble but it’s obviously at the fair price. I think we can still move up somewhat, maybe another 10-20% in the next six months and then we will have to see. But I believe that investors will be faced with more and more regulation and scrutiny and that to own some physical gold is an insurance that is an absolute necessity.
- in CNBC TV18

Click here to watch the full interview >>>>>>>

黃金進可攻退可守

葉劍雄

儘管全球經濟持續不明朗,但過去九個月的金價表現卻非常令人失望。金價在2011年9月初觸及每盎斯1921美元的紀錄高位後,已大幅回落超過300美元。投資者或會問,在全球經濟面臨如此多不明朗因素的環境下,為何金價無力上升?

黃金通常被視為安全資產,與貨幣相比,黃金不會受到政府財政或貨幣政策的影響。自今次金融危機爆發以來,全球四大央行已增發近9萬億美元的鈔票,幾乎等於所有已開採黃金的總值。儘管如此,金價在近期並無顯著上升,背後的原因是什麼呢?

宏觀形勢非常樂觀

傳統上在避險情緒升溫時,投資者會蜂擁買入黃金,推高金價。但是在歐債危機告急期間,股市遭到瘋狂拋售,投資者為了追繳保證金而出售黃金套現。此外,歐債危機導致歐羅持續疲弱以及美元上升,金價因美元轉強而受壓。

受兩重因素互相影響下,黃金作為傳統安全資產的升幅受阻,因此金價走勢維持平穩。黃金擁有獨立於其他資產影響的中立性,對於希望分散投資組合風險的投資者而言,是非常有用的工具。

金價通常取決於貨幣與財政政策的互相影響(宏觀因素)及供需狀況(微觀因素)。由於歐債危機及其對金融市場及貨幣的影響,美國等國家實施極為寬鬆的貨幣政策,加上各國為刺激經濟增長而實施大膽的措施,這些因素共同為黃金奠定長期上升的基礎。

從宏觀方面分析黃金。無論黃金是否作為安全資產,黃金的宏觀形勢非常樂觀,超寬鬆的貨幣政策通常對黃金有利。理論上,經濟不明朗、地緣政治衝突及今年11月美國總統大選的不確定性對黃金價格有利。

黃金不僅會受上述宏觀因素影響,亦會受制於貨幣市場的走勢。作為一種代用貨幣,黃金對外滙市場的走勢非常敏感,黃金與美元之間的逆向關係是黃金市場最穩定及持久的關係之一。

過去兩年,歐債危機一直主導金融市場的走勢,掩蓋了美國債務危機及財政問題的重要性。然而,隨着今年年底美國總統大選及國會選舉臨近,市場的焦點將會轉移至美國的財政問題及政治紛爭上。歷史上,在美國經濟困難及美元低迷時期,黃金通常表現出眾。

雖然宏觀方面的因素皆顯示黃金將會上升,但微觀方面的供需因素卻不利於黃金。

供應方面,受金價上升以及採礦周期早前所作的大量投資影響,黃金產量仍在持續增加中,由2005年的2550噸增至2011年的2818噸。

循環再用黃金的產量亦顯著增長,由2005年的886噸增加到2011年的1661噸,並持續抑制金價升幅。因此,透過採礦及循環再用黃金所增加的黃金產量,已能夠滿足投資需求並限制金價上升。

各央行購金量激增

至於需求方面,今年以來黃金加工產品的需求令人失望。飾金消費佔黃金加工產品需求的比例最大,並成為對金價影響最大的一個決定因素,但飾金需求由2005年佔加工的75%跌到2011年的45%。

印度作為全球實物黃金最重要的市場,通常佔全球實物黃金需求的30%。黃金兌美元升到歷史高位1921美元/盎斯時,印度盧比兌黃金是88633盧比/盎斯,現時黃金回落16%至1600美元,但由於印度盧比兌美元大幅貶值,以印度盧比計值的金價,仍處於89040的高位。

孟買黃金協會估計,今年印度黃金進口將由2011年的960噸減至550噸。由於黃金進口對印度的貿易平衡帶來負面影響,印度政府為避免加重貿易不平衡,已對黃金徵收進口關稅,對印度的黃金需求造成不利影響。

儘管黃金加工產品的需求下降,但不斷增長的黃金供應量將會被各大央行所吸納。各大央行在過去20年沽售黃金後,在2010年重新淨購入黃金77噸;在2011年,國際結算銀行報告指央行購買黃金的數量激增至456噸。2012年新興市場的外滙儲備管理者將會增加黃金持有比例,主要作為對沖美元及歐羅貶值的手段,以及實現投資組合多元化。

展望未來,飾金需求已處於歷史低位,銷售趨勢不會進一步惡化,我們預期重要的變化主要將出現在宏觀方面。鑒於美國「財政懸崖」的不確定性,以及11月份美國總統大選及進一步量化寬鬆政策,今年下半年黃金將有較大的上升空間。

較為明朗的是,各國迫切希望買入更多非美元及歐羅的資產以分散投資風險。儘管黃金仍未成為投資者的首選,但我們認為黃金即將成為最具吸引力的投資,不過可能先要考驗投資者的耐性。

作者為滙豐環球資本市場亞太區財富策略部總監

2012年8月9日星期四

GOLD close to confirming a new breakout to all-time highs

By: David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com Aug 8th 2012
Back in the fall of 2011 I was warning my subscribers and the public via articles to prepare for a large correction in the price of GOLD. The metal had experienced a primary wave 3 rally from $681 per ounce in the fall of 2008 to the upper $1800's at the time of my warnings in the fall of 2011. A 34 Fibonacci month rally was sure to be followed by an 8-13 month consolidation period, or what I would term a Primary wave 4 correction pattern.

We have seen GOLD drop at low as the $1520's during this expected 8-13 month window, but at this time it looks to me like a break over $1630 on a closing basis will put the nail in the wave 4 coffin. I expect GOLD to rally for about 8-13 months into at least June of 2013 and our longstanding target has been in the $2300 per ounce arena in US Dollar terms. Some pundits have much higher targets in the $3,500 per ounce or higher area but I am using my low end targets for reasonable accuracy.

This 5th wave up can be difficult to project because 5th waves in stock or metals markets can be what are called "Extension" waves. This means they can have a potentially much larger percentage movement relative to the prior waves 1 and 3 of the primary bull market since 2001. You can end up with a parabolic move at the end of wave 5, where those $3000 plus targets are possible. I expect the 5th wave to be about 61% of the amplitude of wave 3, which ran from 681 to 1923, or about $1242 per ounce. If we were to apply that math, we come up with $767 per ounce of rally off the wave 4 lows. $1520 plus $767 puts us at $2287 per ounce, or roughly $2300 an ounce low end target.
In summary, crowd behavior is crucial to the next coming movement in GOLD and it could be a sharp rally that catches many off guard, much like the downdraft last fall did the same to the Bulls. Be prepared to go long GOLD once over $1630 per ounce and buy dips along the way up to $2300 into the summer of 2013.

Receive our free weekly reports at www.markettrendforecast.com or sign up for a discounted subscription and get our reports daily on the SP 500 and GOLD.

88 gold
 

Silver Is About to Rocket Higher



白銀升水
通常期貨會貴過現貨,因為期貨要等到期才能提取貨,期間要付倉租,若現貨貴過期貨,買了期貨的人就會要求提貨,到現貨市場出售,賺取差價。

故現貨升水是見底訊號之一,期貨商要盡快提升期貨價格,以免增加提貨壓力
 

http://www.wealthdaily.com/


Silver Is Now in Backwardation




By
Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

Silver futures are in backwardation.
Backwardation is a pricing anomaly that typically – but rarely – shows up in the commodities market. And if you can catch it, you can make quite a bit of money.

Historically backwardation means one of two things: 

1) there’s a current shortage of silver bullion available on the open market and/or 

 2) silver traders believe the price of silver is about to take off.

Here’s what happens...
Backwardation occurs when the future price of a commodity (gold, silver, oil, corn, etc.) is less than the current spot price.
In other words, the price you pay now is higher than the price you have the option of paying a month later... two months later... or a year later.

Think of it like this: Would you rather lock in the price for a Mercedes today versus three years from now? Most likely the price of a Mercedes three years from now will be more than the price you pay today.


So let’s take the current state of the silver futures market. As of this writing, the cash price for silver is $28.16 per ounce. That’s the cash price. That means today you can buy or sell a one-ounce silver eagle coin for $28.16.
However, the October 2012 futures contract price for silver is $27.88.

If we go out to the beginning of next year, the January 2013 silver contract is $27.97. The July 2013 silver contract is $27.99.
Go out a bit further and you’ll see that the backwardation continues. The December 2014 contract is $27.85… and the December 2015 contract is $27.59.

For the most part, the current spot price of silver is more than in distant contracts. If you go all the way out to July 2017, the price for silver is $27.19.

So what does all this mean?
Basically it means that there are relatively few silver owners that are willing to sell their bullion holdings.
As a result of this tight supply, there’s an increasing amount of demand for bullion that is jacking-up the current spot price of silver.
And that’s the significance of backwardation. The current spot price of silver is an accurate record of the real spot price of physical silver as long as people are willing to exchange currency for silver at that price, which is why backwardation is so important.
If silver goes into backwardation – which is rare, but it happens – then the physical price is diverging from the paper price. No one is willing to arbitrage. And the reason is they are worried about two possible events.
The first possibility is default: i.e., someone won't make good on their paper promise to deliver. 
The other is debasement.
That means the government takes some action to make the dollar less valuable relative to silver. 
So rather than selling their physical silver today and holding currency until someone delivers the silver back to them in the future at a lower price – enabling them make a profit from the arbitrage – the holders of physical metal choose not to sell. 
They are willing to give up a profit to keep their bullion safe, rather than exchange it for dollars and the risks of default or debasement.
In a report titled Speculators Pile Into Gold Futures, the precious metals investment site Kitco.com reported this past Monday:
As gold prices rose during the last week of July, speculators sought out to buy the yellow metal on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to U.S. government data.
For the week ended July 31, speculators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitment of traders report saw their net-long positions in gold rise significantly in both the legacy and disaggregated reports. Silver saw a similar strong rise in the net-long positions, while palladium’s net-long position rose modestly. Platinum activity was divided in the two reports, as it was also for copper.
This rise in silver trades that went net long by the funds was the greatest in three months.
As a holder of silver bullion, I am betting this situation will be so lopsided in the coming weeks and months that I will wait for at least several dollars' backwardation before I consider selling my silver or my silver miners.

To your wealth,

Brian Hicks Signature
Brian Hicks
Brian is a founding member and President of Angel Publishing and investment director for the income and dividend newsletter The Wealth Advisory. He writes about general investment strategies for Wealth Daily, Energy & Capital and the H & L Market Report. Known as the "original bull on America," Brian is also the author of the 2008 book, Profit from the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century. In addition to writing about the economy, investments and politics, Brian is also a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox and countless radio shows. For more on Brian, take a look at his editor's page.