銀市下跌四周年紀念

石林

2015年已經過了三分之一，剛結束的4月，金價以1184元（美元．下同）收市，比3月微升1.3元。翌日，即5月1日（上週末），又滑落至1177.9元收市，比去年底收盤價1182.9元低出5元。

對於銀市而言，目下正是一個值得紀念的日子，銀價從最近一個牛市高峰往下回跌四周年。四年前，即2011年4月25日，銀價漲升至49.82元高位，惜仍未能打破前一個牛市的高位。其後在「五一」假期復市時，銀市出現大規模的拋售，揭開隨後數年跌市的帷幕。

銀市至今尚未有明確的止跌回升跡象，上週末收報16.095元，比去年底收市15.685元僅高出0.41元。然而，目前價位比四年高峰仍跌去了33.725元或67.7%。反觀金市，目前價位比三年半前的高峰下跌了745.8元或38.7%，整體表現乃優於銀市。

低位拉鋸格局

近大半年來金銀兩市陷入在一個交易區間內上下波動，儘管不時有短期的尖峰或低谷出現，但最終都未形成真正的持續趨勢，牛熊在偏低價位拉鋸的格局仍在維持。

近 期金市繼續類似的場面，前周金價雖然曾跌至1175元，低於前數週的低位1178元，市勢卻急促反彈，高位見1215元，超越了前數週的高位1210元。 但這都不代表有新市勢誕生，3天內金市又急挫見1168元近期新低位。如此反复的市勢說明市場對後市取向並無定案，投資者對美國聯儲局是否加息有不同的詮 釋和理解。

撇開市勢短線的波動，光指價位而言，目前實際上是處於數週來的偏低水平。簡單而言，美國是否在6月或9月加息，對金市已不是 最重要的事，市場似乎已相信最低限度今年將加息一次。但敝欄認為，這不是金市在反復中呈偏軟的深層原因。若仔細觀察市勢可發覺，上週三金價從周內高位向下 回落，並非在聯儲局發表議息結果之時，而是在美國首季GDP公佈之刻。該數據初值增長只得0.2%，較去年末季的2.2%大幅放緩。美元聞聲受壓，但金市 擺脫與美元的反向關係，兩者雙雙迴跌。

兩大壓力金價偏淡

敝欄讀者早就知道，若GDP增長放緩將令相應的貨幣流動性計算結果調低。根據上述美國首季GDP初值計算，該季的M1貨幣供應的流動速率僅為5.965，零期限MZM貨幣供應的流速更僅為1.353，兩者分別為數十年的新低。

各位亦早明白，金價自QE3實施開始就不再上升，反明顯下跌，背後主要原因是，再「大印銀紙」仍無法加速貨幣流動性；相反，貨幣流動性依然持續向下滑跌，金價及商品價格遂從高峰迴跌。問題是至今此情形未有改善，故金價在深層處繼續會受到這方面的壓力。

現請留意，近半年來金價與美國10年債券價格保持相當密切的同向與同步關係，上週該債價明顯下跌，相應的孳息率回揚到2.12厘的個半月來高位，金市目前亦受到這方面的壓力。

綜合上說，金市仍然維持低位反复拉鋸局面，但因受到上述兩種壓力，故較傾向偏淡。 1225元已證明是中短期高位，短期分別在1199元和1194元會有阻力；目前在1168元仍有爭持，但須留意1142元至1146元的關鍵支持地帶會否再被測試。

銀價17.4元相應是銀市中短期高位，短期則分別在16.6元和16.4元會有阻力；目前在15.6元之上仍有爭持，同樣要留意15元至15.2元的關鍵支持地帶會否再受考驗。

本週五將發布美國最新就業數據，屆時市況或又有較大波動，但建議在反復市勢中不要忘記掌握深層因素。

Why Is JP Morgan Accumulating The Biggest Stockpile Of Physical Silver In History?

There is a whole lot more going on behind the scenes than we are being told.
JPMorgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that “there will be another crisis”in a letter to shareholders…

Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial market.
The trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one – but there will be another crisis.

And Dimon is apparently putting his money where his mouth is.
JP Morgan has suddenly accumulated more than 55 million ounces of physical silver. 
So why is JPM suddenly stockpiling physical silver in a MAJOR WAY?
Are Jamie Dimon & JP Morgan Chase anticipating another great economic crisis?

From The Economic Collapse Blog:

Why in the world has JP Morgan accumulated more than 55 million ounces of physical silver?  Since early 2012, JP Morgan’s stockpile has grown from less than 5 million ounces of physical silver to more than 55 millionounces of physical silver.

Clearly, someone over at JP Morgan is convinced that physical silver is a great investment.  But in recent times, the price of silver has actually fallen quite a bit.  As I write this, it is sitting at the ridiculously low price of $15.66 an ounce.  So up to this point, JP Morgan’s investment in silver has definitely not paid off.  But it will pay off in a big way if we will soon be entering a time of great financial turmoil.

During a time of crisis, investors tend to flood into physical gold and silver.  And as I mentioned just recently, JPMorgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that “there will be another crisis” in a letter to shareholders…

Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial market.
The trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one – but there will be another crisis. Triggering events could be geopolitical (the 1973 Middle East crisis), a recession where the Fed rapidly increases interest rates (the 1980-1982 recession), a commodities price collapse (oil in the late 1980s), the commercial real estate crisis (in the early 1990s), the Asian crisis (in 1997), so-called “bubbles” (the 2000 Internet bubble and the 2008 mortgage/housing bubble), etc. While the past crises had different roots (you could spend a lot of time arguing the degree to which geopolitical, economic or purely financial factors caused each crisis), they generally had a strong effect across the financial markets

And Dimon is apparently putting his money where his mouth is.

If Dimon believes that another great crisis is coming, then it would make logical sense to stockpile huge amounts of precious metals.  And in particular, silver is a tremendous bargain for a variety of reasons.  Personally, I like gold, but I absolutely love silver – especially at the price it is at right now.

Over the past few years, JP Morgan has been voraciously buying up physical silver.  Nobody has ever seen anything quite like this ever before.  In fact, JP Morgan has added more than 8 million ounces of physical silver during the past couple of weeks alone.  The following is an extended excerpt from a recent article by Mac Slavo…

*****

According to a detailed report from The Wealth Watchman JP Morgan Chase has been amassing a huge stockpile of physical silver, presumably in anticipation of a major liquidity event.

They’re baaaaack. Yes, “old faithful” is back at it again!

Of course, they never really left silver, and have been rigging it non-stop in the futures market, but for awhile there, there were at least no admissions of newly-stacked silver being made in their Comex warehousing facilities.

Yet, after a 16 month period of “dormancy” within their Comex warehouse vaults, these guys have returned with a vengeance.

In fact, our old buddies at JP Morgan Chase, not only see value in silver here, but they’re currently standing for delivery in their own house account in such strong numbers, that it commands our attention.  Let me show you what I mean.

Here’s a breakdown of the Comex’s most recent silver deliveries to JP Morgan:

April 7th: 1,110,000 ounces

April 8th: 1,280,000 ounces

April 9th:  893,037 ounces

April 10th: 1,200,224 ounces

April 14th: 1,073,000 ounces

April 15th: 1,191,275 ounces

April 16th: 1,183,777.295 ounces

This is a huge bout of deliveries in such a short space of time. In fact, within the realm of Comex world, it’s such an exceptionally large amount, that it even creates quite a spike on the long-term chart of JP Morgan’s vault stockpile:

All in all, JP Morgan has added over 8.3 million ounces of additional silver in just the past 2 weeks alone.

 Full report at The Wealth Watchman (via Steve QuayleandRealist News)

*****

So why is JP Morgan doing this?

Do they know something that the rest of us do not?

Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase has made another very curious move as well.  It is being reported that the bank is “restricting the use of cash” in some markets, and has even gone so far as to “prohibit the storage of cash in safe deposit boxes”…

What is a surprise is how little notice the rollout of Chase’s new policy has received.  As of March, Chase began restricting the use of cash in selected markets, including  Greater Cleveland.  The new policy restricts borrowers from using cash to make payments on credit cards, mortgages, equity lines, and  auto loans.  Chase even goes as far as to prohibit the storage of cash in its safe deposit boxes .  In a letter to its customers dated April 1, 2015 pertaining to its “Updated Safe Deposit Box Lease Agreement,”  one of the highlighted items reads:  “You agree not to store any cash or coins other than those found to have a collectible value.”  Whether or not this pertains to gold and silver coins with no numismatic value is not explained.

What in the world is that all about?

Why is JP Morgan suddenly so negative about cash?

I think that there is a whole lot more going on behind the scenes than we are being told.

JP Morgan Chase is the largest of the six “too big to fail” banks in the United States.  The total amount of assets that JP Morgan Chase controls is roughly equal to the GDP of the entire British economy.  This is an institution that is immensely powerful and that has very deep ties to the U.S. government.

Could it be possible that JP Morgan Chase is anticipating another great economic crisis?

We are definitely due for one.  Just consider the following chart from Zero Hedge.  It postulates that our financial system is ready for another “7.5 year itch”…

JP Morgan certainly seems to be preparing for a worst case scenario.

What about you?

Are you getting ready for what is coming?

金銀無利可圖吸引力大減

石林

首先介紹中俄兩國央行黃金儲備及內地金市若干資料。

俄羅斯央行儘管在早前面對盧布大貶值的危機，但仍堅持逐步增加黃金儲備的既定政策。上個月又明顯地增持100萬盎斯黃金，使總儲量累積至3980萬盎斯，即1238噸，續居全球官方第六名的位置。

中 國人民銀行自2009年4月向外公佈黃金儲備為1054.1噸之後，至今該數字一直未見變動。但據彭博的最近估計，中國的黃金儲備可能翻了三倍，估計已經 增升至3510噸，僅次於美國的8133.5噸，晉身世界第二。此外，中國黃金產量、進口量和消費量已晉居世界的首位；佔全球黃金市場的比重也在迅速攀 升，現已升至接近50%的水平。

還有，中國黃金市場的交易量和實物黃金存提量也進占全球重要位置。過去六年交易達5565噸；單在上週，上海黃金交易所的實金提取量就達49.954噸，引人注目。

上週反常下跌

然而，內地居民投資黃金的水平似有待提高，以2013年底的金價計算，現持有黃金的投資者的浮動虧損共超過2121億元人民幣。若金價進一步下滑，其浮動虧損還會擴大。

最近的金市行情，對上述內地投資者來說，並沒有帶來好消息。國際金價經歷一段牛皮行情之後，又再呈滑跌之勢，上週末以1179元（美元．下同）收市，較去年底的終盤價1182.9元還低出2.5元。換言之，今年至今購入並仍持有黃金的人，平均而言是無利可圖。

銀市有類似行情，銀價在牛皮市之後亦告再下滑。上週收報15.755元，僅比去年底終盤價15.685元輕微高出0.07元。

這樣的市況，對於一直認為金銀兩市未呈現中長線回升的筆者來說，也感到無趣。本人鑑於美元仍在調整、商品價格有所回揚，曾估計金銀兩市最低限度可望暫時回穩，但情況竟然比想像的更差。

令筆者感到無趣的更主要原因的是，上週末美元續弱、美10年債價回揚、商品物價指數續好，但金銀價竟不理與上述三者的「正常」關係，雙雙徑自向下滑跌。這樣沒有別的理由解釋，只能說中俄兩國增加黃金儲備並不能令金價回升，而一般投資者對黃金的興趣較前大減。

技術因素轉淡

最近由中國方面引發的股市新熱潮，吸引全球資金大都跑進股市，金銀兩市相對受到冷落。另外，美國不管是在6月或9月加息，反正都將會加息，金銀兩市的投資者寧願採取觀望的態度，買家尤其不積極。對沖基金在期金市的淨好倉量幾無變動，在期銀市更明顯遞減。

技 術因素轉差亦是金銀市再向下滑的一個原因。金市圖表在今年2月至最近，似在營造一個可能性的倒頭肩形態，但本月的回升止於1225元水位，低於前三個月總 跌幅回彈50%水平，該反轉形態終歸無法成​​立。相反，最近一個月的圖表是出現一個較小型的頭肩頂或圓頂形，如今其「頸線」水平已失守，走勢又告轉淡。

由此看來，1210元水平已經成為金市中短期的回升阻力，短期阻力分別下移至1194元及1186元水位。目前金市或仍再有爭持，但恐會向1167元及1159元的低位續下滑，較大支持在1146元。

銀 價在3月反彈雖超越前總跌幅之半，但本月形成一條下降通道反復回跌，上週低位離3月低位不遠，且考驗近五個月來的上升軌。看來16.5元已是銀市中短期回 升阻力，短期阻力分別下移至16.15元和16元水位。下面支持分別在15.5元和頗關鍵的15.3元，最后防守關為15元。

本週三美國將公佈今年首季GDP及舉行議息會議，金銀市將有波動，但諒不會有扭轉乾坤的情況出現。

哈萨克斯坦连续30个月增持黄金 俄罗斯重启购金行动

据国际货币基金组织(IMF)周一(4月27日)称，今年3月哈萨克斯坦连续第30个月增持黄金储备，而在短暂停滞之后，3月俄罗斯也重启了黄金储备的购买。不过，塔吉克斯坦当月却削减了黄金储备数量。

IMF数据显示，今年3月哈萨克斯坦黄金储备增持198.4吨(2月196.1吨)，过去12个月哈萨克斯塔黄金储备已经跳涨33%；俄罗斯3月黄金储备1238.3吨(2月1207.7吨)，俄罗斯是全球第五大黄金储备国；白俄罗斯3月黄金储备增至44.5吨(2月41.5吨)，马来西亚3月黄金储备增至37吨(2月36.4吨)，土耳其黄金储备扩大至513吨(2月510.3吨)。IMF表示，眼下东南亚国家的黄金储备正处在2000年1月来最高水平。

不过，3月也有部分国家减持了黄金储备。比如塔吉克斯坦3月黄金储备降至8.9吨(2月9.5吨)；萨尔瓦多黄金储备降至1.4吨(2月6.8吨)；墨西哥降至122.4吨(122.5吨)，为连续第9个月下滑。

根据IMF的数据，俄罗斯黄金储备已经从2005年翻了三倍有余，目前总量已经达至少1993年来最高水平。俄罗斯央行行长Elvira Nabiullina今年2月曾称，购买黄金储备是为了分散外汇储备，同时解决与卢布流动性相关的问题。

因美联储提前加息预期进一步升温，今年3月国际金价曾录得连续第二个月下跌。上周五(4月24日)金价还曾一度下探1174美元/盎司的一个多月低位。同时，据外媒近期报道，基于国内产量和中国黄金协会的数据，中国目前的黄金储备可能已经是2009年4月公布1054吨的三倍，至3510吨。

数据显示，俄罗斯在2014年4月-12月均连续购买黄金储备，而今年2月却维持总量不变。过去5年来俄罗斯央行一直在购买黄金，这与1980年开始连续20年的抛售行为截然相反。

玉米种 美媒:美国将首用反间谍法起诉

反间谍罪？转基因种子与核弹机密相当？对了，如果粮食作为武器，其威力不亚于核弹。


























2015年04月25日 11:23

参考消息网4月25日报道 美报称，对涉嫌窃取美国高科技玉米种子的中国公司高管的刑事审判，正在演变成一场围绕联邦政府使用反间谍法打击农业间谍活动的博弈。

美国《华尔街日报》网站4月23日称，美国检察官称，一家中国农产品公司的高管莫海龙参与了一场历时多年的阴谋，从美国农业巨头孟山都公司和杜邦公司的试验田中盗窃种子。2013年12月，莫海龙在位于佛罗里达州博卡拉顿的家中被拘捕。

检察官指控莫海龙及其同伙涉嫌窃取商业机密。目前，莫海龙被软禁在艾奥瓦州的得梅因。现年45岁的莫海龙拒不认罪。检察官称，将在庭审时采用根据1978年的《涉外情报监视法》赋予的监控手段收集而来的部分证据，庭审将于9月份在得梅因举行。

该法案旨在抓捕外国政府间谍和恐怖分子。法律专家称，莫海龙案是美国政府首次公开表示使用该法案赋予的监控手段搜集证据来起诉窃取商业机密行为。

就在这起案件曝光之际，美国执法部门的官员称，正在就针对美国农业公司的行业间谍活动展开更大范围的调查，其中包括多起窃取种子、杀虫剂及其他农产品的潜在案件。

莫海龙是中国的大北农集团的高管，十多年前移居美国。

据莫海龙的律师提交的法律文件显示，为了立案，美国联邦调查局在莫海龙的汽车上安装了窃听器，并在他位于佛罗里达州的家中及其经营的伊利诺伊州农场和芝加哥郊外、据称其存储玉米种子的小仓库外设置了摄像机，以记录他的日常活动。检察官还仔细梳理了数以千计的电子邮件和电脑文件。

目前，美国政府拒绝就此事发表评论。在针对航空技术、金融数据、涂料配方等领域的外国行业间谍活动展开多年打击后，美国政府正越来越重视对种子和农作物化学用品的保护，此举旨在巩固美国作为世界第一大农产品出口国的地位。

正当美国政府展开调查之际，中国也在加紧讨论如何减少对西方公司的玉米等农产品及昂贵技术的依赖，从而扶持本国的农业部门。

资料图：抗议美国孟山都公司的华人。（图片源于网络）

The War on Cash

馬田大師

Posted on April 24, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

 

The “War on Cash” is heating up. Louisiana has outlawed paying cash for second hand goods, under the pretense that criminals sell stolen goods for cash. France outlawed paying more than €1000 for anything, and you cannot get more than €200 from an ATM. JP Morgan Chase is outlawing storing cash in a safety deposit box. Most bank analysts are now calling for the end of cash. As I have been warning, in no way are we heading towards a gold standard or anything of the sort. Instead, we are heading into the eye of electronic money for taxes.

Besides the fact that government will get every halfpenny they are looking for in taxes, moving to electronic money is a major advantage for banks. This is why their fake independent analysts are all lining up to demand abolishing currency.

Of course you have the benefit of ending bank robberies. But honestly, banks do not carry that much cash anyway. The MAJOR benefit for them to eliminate cash is that it will eliminate bank runs.

The good old days of lining up at the bank to withdraw your money will be gone forever. With banks on the brink of total disaster in Europe, eliminating cash will have the desired effect of eliminating the crisis in their mind. U.S. banks see the writing on the wall, for whatever starts in Europe eventually migrates here, just like plays and fashion.

Americans are just naive. Europe has routinely cancelled currency. Old currency from a few decades ago are no longer good, even in Britain. You can swap it in if you go to the government but they often want you to prove where it came from.

The government can simply cancel ALL CURRENCY. That will force people into electronic money; it is coming faster than you may ever suspect. This is why they are also tracking the movement of gold. They are forcing society back into the barter system. Our Solution is the ONLY way out of this mess.

委內瑞拉央行用140萬盎司黃金換花旗10億美元現金

據委內瑞拉當地媒體週五(4月24日)報導，委內瑞拉央行已經同花旗銀行進行黃金交換，將其部分黃金儲備換成了至少10億美元現金。

作為石油輸出組織(OPEC)成員國之一，委內瑞拉受到物價上漲，物資長期短缺以及因油價下跌而引發的經濟萎縮等多種困境中苦苦掙扎，而這筆交易使得總統Nicolas Maduro的社會黨政府有了更充沛的外匯貨幣儲備來應付各種局面。

El Nacional日報稱，交易的對像是花旗銀行，交易額是10億美元。

前委內瑞拉央行理事Jose Guerra和經濟學家Asdrubal Oliveros在採訪中都分別提到，這筆交割已經完成。

央行還沒有就記者提問做出回應。一位花旗銀行的官員稱，公司沒有發表任何評論。

據央行消息人士上個月向媒體透露，央行將用140萬盎司的黃金來換取資金。委內瑞拉需要支付款項的利息，但是央行仍能保持將黃金作為外匯儲備的一部分。

社會黨領袖Hugo Chavez在2007-2009年的金融危機之後開始陸續將央行的資產從美元中撤走，所以資產委內瑞拉大部分的外匯儲備都是黃金。