PAMP 銀條

早前在澳洲買入PMAP 1 KG 銀條 ,當時國際銀價大約在15.90,
折算為HK42xx

金價強勢 好淡爭持

石林
由於剛巧遇到假期休刊的關係，敝欄上次與讀者見面是周三前的事了。過去三週，金價經歷了從1260.9美元偏高水平回跌至1206美元，其後上揚至1246.8美元的過程，上週收市報1238.4美元。可見金市的熱度確略為降溫，但牛方與熊方仍在激烈較量。
同期銀價亦從16.04美元下滑至14.78美元，爾後又漲至15.39美元，上週收報15.36美元。好淡爭持同樣十分激烈。
市場對美國加息步伐預期和情緒的變化，近期相當程度地主宰金市上落。這段期間，先聽見數字美國地方儲備銀行總裁認為4月份會加息的言論，金價從早前的偏高位明顯回落。其後聯儲局主席耶倫發表出人意表的極為溫和言論，金價即從調整低位反彈，其效應持續至今。銀價則稍受商品價格影響。
受惠加息吹淡風
耶倫的鴿派言論明顯地影響美元匯價，美匯指數最近兩星期從96.42進一步下滑到94.035的偏低水平，金價無疑從中受惠。但若較仔細看，這不是最重要因素，因為近期金價只是與之保持散鬆的反向關係，而同步關係目前似談不上。
另一邊廂，金價近期則與美10年期債券價格有著相當密切的同向且同步關係，這比與美元匯價的關係明顯得多。行情說明市場對美國利率走向的預期，在目前是主宰金價上落的重要因素。
美10年期債券的價格自上月中旬從調整低位掉頭回升，相應地其孳息率則從1.98厘回落到1.7厘水平。此行情反映債券市場認為，美國加息步伐將極為放緩，甚至懷疑加息的必要性。
然而，相信這是偏頗的反應，從美國一系列經濟數據和聯儲局的表現來看，美國仍有可能今年加息兩次，最起碼不致掉過頭來實施零利率。因此估計美10年債息不致跌穿2月份低點1.63厘水平，而債價將很快遇到回升阻力。
金價表現出抗跌力，除市場改變了對美國加息步伐的預期外，股市和其他市場的動盪重燃投資者對黃金的興趣，亦是一個原因。可是美國貨幣政策與其他主要國家的貨幣仍背馳，加上美國本身的貨幣流動性正在下滑，故黃金新牛市已否產生的問題尚待驗證。
銀市15.55美元有阻力
在金市的中長線對數圖上，金價未能成功地升越並企在自2013年8月以來的下降軌之上，目前是龜縮在該軌之下。但是，最近金價從回升高位1287.8美元向下調整，而有能力企在關連支持水平1191.7美元之上，可見仍保持著相當強勢。有趣的是近週從調整低位回升，現時價位是處於前跌幅之半左右的水平，目前中短線走勢未有明確方向，好淡爭持仍續。
金市真正暗湧是市場本身，商業及生產商的淨沽倉繼續處於自2013年以來的最大量水平，倉位結構處頗不穩定狀態。現估計金市在1245美元仍有阻力，而1255至1260美元是較大的回升阻力地帶。支持則分別在1224美元及1215美元，較關鍵支持是在1206美元。
與金市有別，在中長線對數圖上，銀價至今仍未能升越自2013年8月以來的下降軌，新牛市的初步表徵尚未呈示，惟14.6美元已出現良好支持，故只是有相對強勢。至於倉位結構最近極端狀態雖略有收斂，但商業及生產的淨沽倉仍分別處於​​自2008年或2013年以來的最大量水平。現估計銀市在15.55美元仍有阻力，而15.8美元是較大的回升阻力。支持則在15.05美元，較關鍵支持是在14.8美元。

How America will return to the gold standard

謝馬兄提供文章資料

From Porter Stansberry in Stansberry Digest:

Nobody said a word for five blocks…
A few days ago, I (Porter) walked out of a dinner meeting at the Metropolitan Club of New York. I can remember every sight and sound. It all plays back in my head like a high-definition movie. This is not an April Fools’ Day joke, unfortunately. This is a true story, down to the last, incredible, detail.

It was 9:43 p.m. It was Tuesday night. It was about 45 degrees. I was with two of my closest friends and colleagues. There was no wind. Traffic was light. We took a left on Madison, heading north. We went to Club Macanudo on East 63rd Street for an after-dinner drink.
And like I said… nobody said a word.

I was in shock. It felt like I was walking away from a car accident. My adrenaline was pumping. My mind was racing. I couldn’t fully process what I had just learned… but I had never been so afraid – not like this.
At the last minute, I had been invited to have dinner with one of the most powerful men in the world. This man guards his reputation closely. For reasons that will become clear, he does not want to be named in this story. You would immediately recognize his name and you would certainly know his reputation.

His career has spanned the last 40 years and includes stints at the highest levels of the U.S. government. For the last dozen years, he has served as an advisor to the world’s wealthiest men. He sits squarely at the nexus between government policy and the country’s wealthiest and most influential people.

He invited me to dinner on the fifth floor of the Metropolitan Club. Few people outside of New York know about this club. But it’s one of the ultimate bastions of wealth and privilege in our country. Built by J.P. Morgan himself, it sits on the southeast corner of Central Park on Fifth Avenue.

Among other notable events, investing legend Warren Buffett celebrated his 50th birthday there. The most powerful and wealthiest people in the country meet there for dinner. The real policies that run our country get debated and decided there.

I was with two friends that night – our director of business development, Mark Arnold, and Erez Kalir, a well-known and successful hedge-fund manager.

Before coming to Stansberry Research three years ago, Mark was a partner at one of the largest venture-capital law firms in the U.S. He has worked on hundreds of major funding deals. He received his undergraduate degree from Duke and he has both an MBA and a law degree.

A few years ago, Erez managed around $1 billion as part of the Tiger Management group – the hedge-fund family controlled by legendary investor Julian Robertson. Today, Erez runs a small, private investment-advisory business… whose name you might recognize. (It’s called Stansberry Asset Management.*) This firm – which is separately owned and managed – licenses our name and uses our research to build portfolios for high-net-worth investors.

Erez is the smartest investor I have ever met. He received his undergraduate degree from Stanford, was a Rhodes scholar, and graduated from Yale Law School, where he was on Law Review.
You need to understand… the people I was meeting with that night were not conspiracy theorists. They are smart, experienced professionals who know the world (and the major players) of finance inside and out. They do not scare easily. They have seen panics, booms, and busts all around the world. And yet… what we learned at dinner sobered all of us and affected us in a way no other discussion in my career ever has.

Our host – who, by the way, was scheduled to appear on national television at 10 p.m., immediately after our dinner – began the meeting by describing discussions among senior policymakers in the U.S. about the possibility that the U.S. will follow Europe and Japan into negative interest rates. You probably haven’t noticed, but despite the big rebound we’ve seen in the stock market, sovereign interest rates (as measured by the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond) have continued to fall. In the first quarter of the year, the yield fell from 2.27% to 1.77%.

According to our host, among U.S. policymakers it was becoming a foregone conclusion that since Europe (one of our major trading partners) and Japan were both using negative interest rates to weaken their currencies and to avoid deflation, that it was only a matter of time before the U.S. would do the same.

The likelihood that the U.S. will implement a negative interest-rate policy (or “NIRP,” for short) is worrisome. You might have heard about this new kind of monetary policy. It’s like capitalism turned upside down. Instead of being paid to save capital, you’re forced to pay just to keep the money you’ve already earned. Negative interest rates are nothing more than government theft. Its banks literally steal from you every day that you keep your money in dollars, yen, or euros.

The dinner I attended wasn’t about these kinds of NIRP policies, though. Our host was assuming that negative interest rates would certainly occur in the U.S. The problem he wanted to talk about that night wasn’t whether NIRP would happen in America. He wanted to discuss what would happen next… and how the government could possibly put capitalism back together if all hell broke loose under NIRP.

Here’s the hypothesis: What if NIRP spread globally? What if they’re implemented around the world in every major paper currency? Think of it like dominoes. Japan has done it. Europe has done it. Sweden, too.
And last night, China became the latest major domino to fall. The overnight Hong Kong interbank offer rate (“Hibor”), which determines the rate that banks in the city have to pay to borrow Chinese yuan from each other, fell to negative 3.725% annually. Who in his right mind would want to hold yuan if it costs nearly 4% a year just to keep his money in a bank?

America is likely next. If all of the world’s major reserve currencies begin paying negative interest rates, the Federal Reserve will have to follow. Otherwise, the dollar would soar and crash our economy. So if all the major banks in the world are charging negative interest rates… where will the trillions and trillions of dollars in overnight banking deposits flee to next?
Imagine you’re the head of $300 billion reinsurance giant Munich Re. You must hold huge cash reserves so you can pay claims, should they arise. Millions of people around the world depend (and have paid for) the guarantees you’ve made to protect their homes, businesses, properties, and entire cities.

And now, instead of earning interest on these reserves, your company must pay huge sums of money simply to keep your capital safe. What will the people who run firms like Munich Re… or JPMorgan Chase… or Japan’s huge Sumitomo Mitsui Banking do with their capital? How can they keep it safe in an era of negative interest rates?

And what will individuals do? Where would you put your money if Bank of America and Wells Fargo began taxing your wealth and your savings every day, instead of paying you interest? How would you keep your money safe?
Let’s see what people are actually doing when faced with this conundrum. Munich Re is responding to negative interest rates by hoarding cash (tens of millions)… and by holding almost 300,000 ounces of gold. Media reports claim the firm has been an active buyer in the gold market. As Bloomberg News says…

Institutional investors including insurers, savings banks, and pension funds are debating whether it may be worth bearing the insurance and logistics costs of holding physical cash as overnight deposit rates fall deeper below zero and negative yields dent investment returns.

Think about what that means for a little while… and see if you don’t find yourself more than a little worried. NIRP could trigger a massive, global “run on the bank” as everyone begins trying to hoard currency and gold to avoid the penalties being charged by the central banks for using paper money.

Trust me when I tell you… Policymakers in the U.S. are cognizant of this risk. This isn’t a doomsday scenario… It’s happening right now. These risks are exactly why gold has seen its biggest quarterly move higher in more than 30 years.

The run has started.

Look who is suddenly buying gold… former vice chairman of the investment bank Goldman Sachs John Thornton is now running Barrick Gold, one of the world’s largest gold producers. Goldman has already purchased three tons of physical gold for its house account.
Stanley Druckenmiller – one of the most successful investors of the last 30 years and former head of the Quantum Fund – holds about 30% of his personal portfolio in gold.

The same is true across the top echelon of Wall Street’s best hedge-fund managers: John Paulson owns stakes in several gold-mining companies. David Einhorn is a huge gold bull, with more than $100 million invested in gold stocks. Paul Singer says it’s the only real money. Ray Dalio – founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world – says, “If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics.”

I could go on, but you get the point. Billionaires are suddenly hoarding gold and expounding on its role in history. Doesn’t that make you wonder what’s really going on behind the scenes? More and more senior people in finance are buying huge amounts of gold. Why? Because of what I learned at dinner just a few nights ago…

After outlining the risks of NIRP and the inevitable run on paper currencies these policies will produce, our host at the Metropolitan Club asked us a simple question…

How will the world’s central banks regain control of the monetary system when it all finally breaks down? What will get people to stop hoarding cash, to stop buying gold, to put their money back in the banks?

I couldn’t believe my ears. Here was a former government official – at the very highest level – openly discussing a global bank run and how the Federal Reserve and other central banks would try to stop it. I have never in my career heard anyone in government discuss such a scenario. And our host wasn’t merely pondering whether or not this could happen. He was formulating a plan to combat it. He was assuming it would happen… and soon.

He then explained there would only be one sure way to gain control of the system: To use gold. He noted that the U.S. Treasury owns more gold than anyone else in the entire world.

The details about the Treasury’s gold hoard are important to the story. So for review, the U.S. Treasury owns 248 million ounces of gold. It’s held, mostly in the form of gold bricks, at three locations: Fort Knox, West Point, and the U.S. Mint in Denver.

Also important… you should know that about two-thirds of this gold was essentially stolen from private U.S. citizens in 1933, when FDR outlawed the private ownership of gold. The right to own gold wasn’t reinstated until 1974. All of the confiscated gold was melted down into bricks. Then, in 1937, it was put on a special nine-car U.S. Army train and shipped to Fort Knox. Since then, just about the only people who have been allowed to see the gold are auditors from KPMG. No one else is allowed inside.
Our dinner host explained what would happen to this gold if NIRP policies caused a global run on paper money. And that’s when I got genuinely afraid…

The only way to re-establish credibility and regain control of the financial system in the event of a global run on paper currencies would be to re-establish the U.S. dollar’s convertibility into gold. Our host described the means for accomplishing this goal. The Fed, he said, could offer to swap all of the Treasury bonds it holds (about $2.4 trillion) for all of the gold owned by the U.S. Treasury. When you do the math, you come with a new dollar-to-gold ratio of $9,677. Roughly $10,000 an ounce.

Our host went on to describe several important nuances to how such a system would work, which goes beyond the scope of today’s Digest. I want to make sure you understand three key things I learned at this meeting…

• The first thing you must understand is the world’s system of paper money is unraveling. The only way to prevent a collapse of the banking system under the weight of outrageous sovereign debts is negative interest rates… the very thing that will spark a run on the system itself. The inevitability of this outcome is already influencing the behavior of the world’s largest banks, insurance companies, and the wealthiest investors. And they’re all going to do one thing: Buy gold.
• The second thing you should know is that as this crisis unfolds, people in and around government who understand how to use our country’s gold (most of which was stolen from citizens) will re-establish financial order. But so much money has been created out of thin air that the price of gold will have to soar (relative to the dollar) to stabilize the system after it collapses.
• The third thing you have to understand is that the government will almost surely do something to prevent you from buying gold when the panic comes. That’s why our host (a former leading government official) is buying gold now. And that’s why you must do so, too – immediately.

As you can tell… this dinner had a profound effect on me. I walked away in silence, as did my colleagues. I was simply in awe at the enormity of what I had heard.

I’ve spent the last several days struggling to wrap my mind around what this all means… for me, for my subscribers, for my family… and for our country. For me and my friends who were at dinner that night, nothing will ever be the same again. There will not be another night’s rest without this idea in the back of our minds. There will never be another day in our lives that we forget what we were told… and what it means will happen.
At first, I wasn’t sure if I could tell you anything about what was said, or who was there. But much to my surprise, I received permission from our host to publish a summary of what was discussed.
 
Then I had to decide if I dared to do so.

You see, this was a detailed plan to stop a run on the dollar. It’s a plan that’s being discussed in secret at the highest levels of finance and government. If this plan is adopted and formalized, it would be, without a doubt, the most highly classified, closely guarded financial secret in the world. I could be putting myself (and my company) in some jeopardy by sharing this information. But… that’s what I felt I had to do.
And I want to do more.

First, I’m going to host a live webinar to discuss everything I heard that night and what it means for us as a country and as investors.
Second, I’ve sent my best resource analyst around the country to meet with leaders in the gold industry. I’m building my first-ever gold-research product. For the first time in my career, I’m going to put my own name on a well-diversified portfolio of gold investments.

In the past, I’ve recommended following Casey Research and John Doody’s Gold Stock Analyst advisory. We’ve even published some gold research in the Stansberry Resource Report. But going forward, I’m going to be leading our efforts personally. And I’m hiring a large new team to produce the best work available on gold and the precious metals sector. As usual, when I decide to do something, I make sure it’s great – far better than any other research you can get elsewhere.

Third, we’re going to continue to follow the NIRP story every day for you in the Digest. Regardless of whether you attend our webinar about these risks or you subscribe to my new gold research, I’m going to make sure you stay completely up to date on the growing risks of a global run on the banks. It’s the greatest risk we face to our wealth and to the stability of our country… And most people don’t yet realize how serious these problems have already become.

You’ll see detailed coverage of this story over the next several days, and we’ll continue to report on these risks going forward. You won’t be among the millions of investors who never saw this coming.

One last thing… Back in 2007 and 2008, when I began to report on the huge risks posed to our economy by the mortgage bubble, and when I warned about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going broke and General Motors going bankrupt… and the likelihood of the investment banks going bust, most people thought that writing about these things meant that I was hoping they would happen. Soon, I was receiving death threats. Some were even sent to my home.

Please do not conflate the facts I report or the things I warn could happen with what I wish would occur. I do not hope for a global run on banks. I do not hope for the price of gold to soar to $10,000 an ounce. All of these things would be terrible for our country and for millions and millions of people around the world.

Believe me, I hope I’m completely wrong about all of these things. But for the first time in my career, I can clearly see that we’re careening toward a massive collapse of the paper-money system. In my view, it’s not a matter of “if.” It’s a matter of “when.”

I hope you’ll join me Wednesday night for a full discussion of these risks. Click here to reserve your spot.

Regards,
Porter Stansberry


http://thecrux.com/

中、俄狂買金！全球央行購金量創金本位制結束來次高

</全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯存底分散需求日增，促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金，收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。專家認為，金價年初以來的漲勢應該是短暫的，預估未來數月內就回再次跌到1,200美元以下，但供需狀況逐漸改善、應可為金價提供支撐。 英國金融時報、路透社31日報導，根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計，俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張，為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去，該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家，去年收購量增加了206公噸。 中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金，使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸，與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。 另一方面，仰賴石油營收的國家則為了籌措現錢、轉而賣出黃金。其中，委內瑞拉去年截至6月底為止拋售了44公噸，賣超幅度居全球之冠，而哥倫比亞也賣出了6.9公噸的黃金、相當於整體儲備量的2/3。 GFMS預測，金價雖然在連跌三年後、於今年年初大漲，主要是拜避險需求跳增之賜，但由於聯準會(Fed)仍打算繼續收緊銀根，預料會讓金價漲勢受到壓抑。該機構預估，黃金這波漲幅應該只是短暫的，一旦金融市場開始止穩，金價也會隨之下降，尤其是當前的亞洲實體需求依舊相當疲弱。 GFMS認為，金價或許未來幾個月就會跌破每盎司1,200美元。 根據統計，全球實體黃金需求在去年年減2%至五年低點4,124公噸，而珠寶需求也下降3%至三年低點2,166公噸。 不過，GFMS還是預估，金礦產出在去年達到歷史高3,158公噸之後，今年應會下滑、為2008年首見，至於實體需求也將逐步回溫，進而讓過剩量在今年收斂，為金價提供支撐。DIV

中国欲批准一万亿元债转股 外媒：最快4月正式推出

新闻配图

【相关阅读】外媒：中国大型银行为何对债转股计划心存谨慎？

据不愿具名知情人士称，正式的债转股实施方案最快或于4月份正式推出。中国财政部、中国央行、中国银监会均未回复。彭博寻求置评的传真上述人士不愿具名，因细节未公开。

此前，国内媒体援引国开行一位未具名高层人士的话报道称，预计中国将在三年甚至更短时间内，化解1万亿元左右规模的银行潜在不良资产。

中国农业银行行长赵欢在该行的年报业绩发布会上称，债转股的方案预计将很快出台。

中国国务院总理李克强此前在博鳌亚洲论坛上表示，用市场化办法推动债转股，探索用债转股降低企业杠杆。

中、俄狂買金！全球央行購金量創金本位制結束來次高

鉅亨網新聞

 

全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯 存底分散需求日增，促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金，收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。專家認為，金價年初以來 的漲勢應該是短暫的，預估未來數月內就回再次跌到1,200美元以下，但供需狀況逐漸改善、應可為金價提供支撐。

英國金融時報、路透社31日報導，根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計，俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張，為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去，該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家，去年收購量增加了206公噸。

中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金，使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸，與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。

另一方面，仰賴石油營收的國家則為了籌措現錢、轉而賣出黃金。其中，委內瑞拉去年截至6月底為止拋售了44公噸，賣超幅度居全球之冠，而哥倫比亞也賣出了6.9公噸的黃金、相當於整體儲備量的2/3。

GFMS 預測，金價雖然在連跌三年後、於今年年初大漲，主要是拜避險需求跳增之賜，但由於聯準會(Fed)仍打算繼續收緊銀根，預料會讓金價漲勢受到壓抑。該機構 預估，黃金這波漲幅應該只是短暫的，一旦金融市場開始止穩，金價也會隨之下降，尤其是當前的亞洲實體需求依舊相當疲弱。GFMS認為，金價或許未來幾個月 就會跌破每盎司1,200美元。

根據統計，全球實體黃金需求在去年年減2%至五年低點4,124公噸，而珠寶需求也下降3%至三年低點2,166公噸。

不過，GFMS還是預估，金礦產出在去年達到歷史高3,158公噸之後，今年應會下滑、為2008年首見，至於實體需求也將逐步回溫，進而讓過剩量在今年收斂，為金價提供支撐。

2月中国大陆自香港净进口42.9吨黄金 较1月大增

FX168讯 香港统计局最新数据显示，今年2月中国大陆自香港地区净进口了42.9吨黄金，较1月的17.6吨有很大增幅。

2月中国大陆进口了55.1吨黄金，而出口到香港地区的黄金为12.2吨。

虽然2月进口量有所增加，但这却是2012年以来进口量最低的2月。今年前两个月，中国大陆进口黄金同比下降56%。

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家Simona Gambarini表示，今年春节在2月初，而金价今年以来持续走高，这都影响了中国的黄金需求。

此外，2月瑞士向中国大陆出口的黄金下降至27.2吨，较1月的43.4吨有明显下降。

Gambarini表示：“从中国市场的金价升水来看，进口量的疲软将持续到3月。在目前金价开始稳定的情况下，未来几个月进口量将再度增加。”

校对：冷静