今年沒有QE3 標普500指數年底恐降至1200點

http://news.cnyes.com

分析師表示，他們認為第三輪量化寬松政策不太可能在今年出臺，預計標準普爾500指數到2011年年末會降至1,200點。
綜合媒體6月9日報導，在美聯儲主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)周二(6月7日)舉行新聞發布會之后，美國股市表現不佳，伯南克在新聞發布會上表達了自己對於下半年經濟增長的憂慮，激起了市場對於更多量化寬松措施的討論。
伯南克6月7日發表講話稱，2011年經濟增長較預期緩慢，寬松貨幣政策仍有必要，利率在較長一段時期內仍將維持低位。雖然目前就業市場 復甦動能有所減弱，但他相信下半年經濟增長有可能加快。雖然他認為短期內退出刺激政策會傷害經濟復甦，但也沒有給出推出新一輪刺激政策的暗示。
伯南克避談第三輪量化寬松政策，這令投資者感到失望并導致股市下挫。分析師預計股市可能進一步走低。
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級市場分析師John Higgins在客戶報告中表示，考慮到過去兩輪量化寬松措施對股票價格帶來的地震，伯南克避談QE3所帶來的市場失望情緒一點兒也不讓人吃驚。他們認為 QE3不太可能在今年出臺，即使在經濟有所回升的情況下，股市可能依然繼續掙扎。John Higgins還表示，他們預計標準普爾500指數到2011年年末會降至1,200點。
美聯儲的超寬松措施提振了風險交易，QE1與QE2鼓勵投資者進入股市投資，在QE1與QE2之間那段時期，股市下挫并且投資者與央行擔憂通貨緊縮 問題。John Higgins表示，因此QE3會向股票市場注入新生，這并非不可置信的事情。他們不能排除另一輪量化寬松政策出臺的可能性，但他們認為QE在2012年 之前不會成為現實。

多重利好發酵 國內金價再創歷史新高

鉅亨網

受歐債危機難以緩解及本周一公布的歐元區投資者信心指數遠差於預期，令市場風險厭惡情緒有所上升。7日上海期貨交易所黃金12月合約收盤價為321.30元/克，再創歷史新高。

證券時報6月8日消息，端午假期中，國內關於國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）前總裁卡恩因發現美國黃金庫存大面積消失而受性侵犯誣陷的論調大行其道。6月7日，假期過后第一個交易日，上海黃金期貨價格創出歷史新高，而紐約黃金價格也再次逼近歷史高點。

截至6月7日收盤，上海期貨交易所黃金12月份合約收盤價 達321.30元/克，每克上漲1.99元，漲幅0.62%。而截至北京時間7日15點整，紐約黃金8月合約報1547.4美元/盎司，微漲0.2美元， 漲幅僅0.01%。值得注意的是，當日人民幣對美元匯率中間價報6.4816，再度創下匯改以來新高。

端午假期，國內部分微博或媒體援引外電報告稱，俄 羅斯總理普京認為卡恩被捕其中必有玄機。有報告稱，卡恩在被捕之前，發現所有美國肯塔基北部諾克斯堡的黃金儲備“失蹤了或者是下落不明”。此前，在5月 初，美國政府開始拖延已承諾要運送到IMF的191.3噸黃金。根據1978年IMF執行董事會簽署的協議修訂案，美國被要求將這些黃金出售給IMF，以 此作為儲備貨幣一種替換形式，放入“特別提款權”的資金池中。

美國黃金庫存大面積消失的消息，讓國內黃金多頭興奮不已， 但這對於昨天上海黃金期貨價格創出歷史新高究竟有多大作用仍待考證。不過，從全球經濟來看，歐債危機難以緩解，加上本周一公布的歐元區投資者信心指數遠差 於預期，令市場風險厭惡情緒有所上升，美元再現頹勢。而且市場普遍預期美國將推出量化寬松的第三階段措施等等，眾多不確定因素下，資金繼續涌入黃金市場也 在情理之中。

“全球流動性是產生黃金公允價值的核心。”標準銀行在最新研究報告中表示，仍然看多黃金。報告預計，鑒於全球流動性仍在上升，金價將會進一步走高，而且全球流動性的上漲不再過多地受到美聯儲行動的推動，而是越來越多地受政府借貸的影響。

與此同時，全球股市近期的下跌也給黃金市場注入了不少資 金，許多交易員選擇黃金作為避險資產。統計顯示，在過去一個月中黃金和白銀的表現比標普500指數高出8%。WJB Capital戰略分析師John Roque表示，在過去80年中，黃金平均回報是標普500指數的1.5倍，在1980年曾達到同期標普指數的6倍，因為當時通脹嚴重侵蝕了美元匯率。他 認為金價近期有大幅上漲的可能。“如果按照黃金和股價的平均相對價格計算，黃金還需要在目前1540美元每盎司的水平上漲23%，達到1900美元。”

世元金行分析師肖磊認為，黃金價格上漲的正面因素還要看亞洲乃至中國市場。上周第三只中國ETF黃金貴金屬類專業投資基金獲得證監會批復，這說明黃金投資需求市場依然魅力四射。如果說前一輪白銀市場的瘋狂有亞洲和中國因素，那么接下來黃金市場能否在6月份有所作為，依然要看中國市場。

羅傑斯：美國債務危機嚴重程度 更勝2008年金融風暴

羅傑斯稱，美元面臨重大債務危機，推薦買入實體資產，作短美元

鉅亨網

外電周三 (8日) 報導指出，知名投資人羅傑斯 (Jim Rogers) 宣稱美國面臨重大危機，在「驚人債務」的重擔下，災難嚴重性可能高於 2008 年的金融危機。

羅傑斯表示，因為美國的債台高築，且聯準會 (Fed) 持續施行寬鬆貨幣政策，美元將化身為「徹底的災難」。儘管如此，羅傑斯仍持有美元，因他預期美元短期身價將呈上漲。

他宣稱，最能有效抵禦政府金融政策，大印鈔票等手段衝擊的方法，就是投資如白銀、稻米或其他商品等實體資產。

羅傑斯表示，他推薦商品和貨幣投資，然不看好新興市場和美國科技股。他同時持有白銀，在接受《CNBC》採訪時他表示，若黃金價格走貶，應逢低買進。

在此同時，他表示趕上中國成長潮的最好方式，就是投資商品、人民幣和中國股票。

他預期 Fed 最近的二次寬鬆政策 (QE2) 將在本月如期結束，但下一輪新寬鬆政策實行時日亦不遠矣。

Jim Rogers

Jim Sinclair - Gold to Exceed $12,500 to Balance US Debt

http://kingworldnews.com/

Jim Sinclair Audio

With continued volatility in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed the legendary Jim Sinclair to get his take on the markets.  Sinclair surprised KWN by discussing a price target for gold that to some would seem unimaginable.  When asked about trading for gold this summer Sinclair stated, “I think most of your analysis of secular trends will look and say no, no, summer time doldrums nothing happens.  Well we could have something very significant happen and for a very clear reason.  It’s becoming obvious even to our talking heads that this great recovery which we’ve questioned for a considerable period of time is in fact more in people’s minds than in reality.  The economy is turning down again and turning down hard, there’s no question about that.”

</frame>

Sinclair continues:

“Quantitive easing is the only tool that the Fed has had available to them.  The Fed has pumped in trillions of dollars and the result of that pump-priming in the monetary sense has been only at best a modest recovery, and certainly making trillionaires out of some bankers, billionaires out of many of them.

We’ve come to a point now where if QE were to be stopped, you would see an implosion in the general equity markets...And yes gold would go down, the market would go down hard.  The dollar would go up slightly to begin, but then fall back down again as the management of the economy was seen to have been ineffective and inefficient. 

Gold would then start moving back up again and I think if QE was to cease, the recovery on gold from a modest reaction would be multiples upon multiples of that reaction and would lead the way to Harry’s $2,400, to Alf’s $3,000 to $6,000.

You can’t stop quantitive easing.  If you stop quantitive easing the stock market will return to its recent low or lower.  That alone by its impact on decision making will cause an economic implosion.  We’re tied into this monetary stimulation, there is no way out of monetary stimulation.  If there was any attempt to get out of monetary stimulation it would cause an economic accident which would require central banks to go right back where they were.  That would be again, loss of control...

More Americans Think Economy Will Never Recover

The mixed signals regarding the economy's health are taking a toll.

Getty Images About 10 percent of Americans say they never expect their spending to return to pre-recession levels.

Americans are growing increasingly doubtful about direction of the US economy, according to the latest survey from business-advisory firm AlixPartners.

In fact, an increasing number, some 61 percent, say they don't expect to return to their respective pre-recession lifestyles until the spring of 2014, if ever.

What's worse, a full 10 percent said they expect they will never return to pre-recession spending.

That's a more pessimistic view than last year, when those surveyed expected that they could be back to pre-recession spending levels by the middle of 2013.

"Americans continue to push their expectations for return to a pre-recession 'normal' further and further into the future—close enough for comfort, but far enough away to seem realistic," said Fred Crawford, CEO of AlixPartners. "But as that happens, more and more it seems normal is actually where we are right now."

The latest employment report, which showed that U.S. employers hired far few workers than expected in May, only serves to reinforce these attitudes.

"It's a vicious cycle," Crawford said. "Americans need to see a significant decrease in unemployment to feel confident in the economic recovery, but companies are waiting to see increased demand for their products and services before they begin hiring and making job-creating capital expenditures."

In the latest survey, some 63 percent of Americans said they feel "not good" or "bad" about the state of the US economy, representing a significant increase from May 2010 when only about 49 percent of those polled felt this gloomy.

The survey also found that Americans overwhelmingly expect to delay by at least 12 months major purchases and expenditures such as spending on new cars, home repairs and vacations.

There have already been signs of this in the latest retail sales reports that came out earlier this week from a handful of major retailers.

Overall, sales at stores open at least a year rose 5.0 percent in May, which is below the 5.4 percent increase that Wall Street expected, according to Thomson Reuters data.

While some analysts used a number of excuses, including high gasoline prices, poor weather, and lackluster merchandise, to explain away the disappointing results, the findings of the survey may suggest that consumers are hunkering down amid the uncertainty.

The view was expressed Thursday by Target CEO Gregg Steinhafel, who said that traffic at Target stores slowed in the second half of the month.

"Our guests continue to shop cautiously in light of higher energy costs and inflationary pressures on their household budgets," Steinhafel said, in the company's monthly sales press release.

AlixPartners is by no means the first organization to recognize this growing pessimism.

Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said the number of consumers who believe they have a chance to bring home more money one year from now is at its lowest level in 25 years, based on his analysis of the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment poll.

Original source 

U.S. Housing Continues Downward Trend It Started 2005

http://wealthcycles.com/blog/

The big story in the headlines today is that housing has officially entered into a double dip downturn. The housing market has surpassed its previous lows and now is roughly at 2002 prices.
The big issue that everyone is missing here is, of course, value. Everyone still talks about price in nominal terms.  That is to say, a home, priced in dollars, has surpassed its previous lows.
This is the chart you probably saw everywhere today:

(Source: Business Insider)
This is the chart you should have seen everywhere today:

You’ll see in this chart U.S. Housing divided by the gold price, that real estate values have been falling against real money since 2005, a few years ahead of the infamous housing collapse.
In other words, pricing houses in dollars is deceptive, because the value of our dollars is steadily eroding. As the second chart shows, the true value of housing, as measured in the amount of gold ounces required to purchase a median-priced, single-family home, fell to 1987 levels in 2009 and kept dropping—even as home prices measured in dollars recovered slightly.
Remember, for the true picture of any market, always think in terms of value—not the nominal price.