2011年9月17日星期六
Silver Beginning a Run-Up
文章中提及小弟經常思考的問題,就是80年代.銀價是受到享利兄弟,人為因素,而導致銀價上升到$50美元,如當時沒有人為因素,當時銀價會是多少?
作者亦提到金銀比以1:25.........小弟覺得這比例比較理性和合理
Silver prices are once again enjoying a run-up as they did from January through April. During that period they doubled and briefly touched $50 an ounce before settling back down to the low $30s.
As I write, silver prices are back above $40 an ounce and that may be giving you the urge to sell. I would advise that you don’t. This recovery is for real, and it has much further to go.
While I have a price target of $50.00 by years end, I anticipate silver prices will peak at $150 an ounce in 18 months.
Central banks around the world are pushing lax monetary policies and this leads me to conclude that prices for all commodities (gold and silver in particular) will rise.
We've already seen this happen with gold hitting a record high $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 7 and when gold goes higher; its baby brother silver quickly follows.
That's reflected in something called the gold to silver ratio, which shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Traditionally, this ratio acts as a price barometer for the two precious metals. And if you look at it right now, it's easy to see that $150 silver isn't far off. Gold and silver prices traditionally move together because both are considered stores of value in inflationary times and while the world considers gold as the premier store of value, other societies, most notably the Spanish empire in the Americas, Imperial China and Mogul India, used the silver standard and are therefore more focused on silver when inflation threatens.
In the 19th century silver and gold prices maintained a fairly steady relationship to each other in a ratio of 16 to 1. This was due to the fact that both gold and silver were viewed as currency. However, in the 20th century silver depreciated against gold. This was due to the fact that silver began to be seen as a commodity that was mainly used in industrial applications. While the two metals are chemically very similar, but silver is much cheaper and therefore is more suitable for industrial uses.
By 2010, gold traded well above $1,000 an ounce while silver traded at $12-$14 an ounce or a ratio of close to 80 to 1. This was unsustainable, and it resulted in the price of silver rising in 2010-11. At its peak, silver was trading for $50 an ounce and about a 30 to 1 ratio to the price of gold.
Going forward, we cannot expect the gold/silver price ratio to reach 16 to 1, as it almost did in 1980.
I believe the reason for this is the use of silver as an industrial metal has fallen off sharply when the price spiked. That freed up silver supplies while investment demand for gold soared.
The second reason is that the 1980 silver price spike was caused by the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market. No such attempt is visible today.
So, I believe the peak ratio of silver to gold is much more likely to reach something closer to 25 to 1.
The peak in gold is yet unknown, but for supply/demand reasons it seems likely to be above $2,500 an ounce - today's equivalent of the 1980 peak, adjusted for inflation - but less than $5,000 an ounce - the 1980 peak adjusted for growth in world gross domestic product (GDP) or money supply.
That would suggest a silver price peak between $100 and $200 per ounce, with $150 an ounce the most likely outcome.
In conclusion, the market will not ultimately turn bearish until global monetary policy tightens. With the November 2012 U.S. Presidential election looming large on the horizon, we probably have at least another year of rising prices. However, we may not have two years to wait for politicians decide to get our fiscal house in order.
My recommendation would be to any silver holdings at least until prices reached $150 an ounce.
Original Source
2011年9月16日星期五
今日加倉_五國央行,聯合放水救歐州
五國央行,聯合放水救歐州,金價應聲急跌,咁就唔好浪費央行好意,正如石林叔話，在牛市，每次回調都是買入時候，咁少少都買返的.
點知去上環中銀,見乜人都無,心諗唔洗排隊,拿拿林行去櫃台,同哥仔講想買個金幣,點知佢話,無貨...........唉,轉頭去痕生總部,又係話無晒ANA....Xz#%&
又要我去金鐘中銀先有貨....頂
點知去上環中銀,見乜人都無,心諗唔洗排隊,拿拿林行去櫃台,同哥仔講想買個金幣,點知佢話,無貨...........唉,轉頭去痕生總部,又係話無晒ANA....Xz#%&
又要我去金鐘中銀先有貨....頂
China Weakens Dollar By Buying MORE Gold
Posted by Brittany Stepniak - Thursday, September 15th, 2011
A recently released WikiLeaks cable shows that China is converting much of its foreign holdings in gold; far away from the U.S. dollar.
A majority of China's gold reserves are located here in the U.S and in some European countries.
While the U.S. and Europe have an alternative agenda to dissuade people from viewing gold as an international reserve currency, China's upping their ante. In doing so, China aims to push other countries towards reserving in more and more in gold; leaving the U.S dollar by the wayside.
Last week, European business officials announced that China plans to make its currency, the yuan, fully convertible for trading on international markets by 2015. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, said the offshore market for the yuan is "developing faster than we had imagined" but there is no definitive timetable for making the currency fully convertible. Presently, the yuan cannot be easily converted into other currencies, because of government restrictions.
China's gold holdings are small compared to other major economies. It has 1,054 tonnes, the sixth-largest reserves in the world, according to data from the World Gold Council.
This only furthers the complications and growing weakness of the dollar. As China is buying tons of gold and the yuan is traded freely, the dollar's dominance is under great pressure to maintain its status as the international reserve currency. These changes could very easily make it much more expensive for our government to borrow money, and to “run perpetual trade and budget deficits."
The U.S should prepare for a major wake-up call, because we may not have the #1 reserve currency for long...
As a reserve currency, the US dollar is the default for international transactions. If, for example, a South Korean company wants to buy wine from Chile, chances are they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, leading to greater demand. The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.
Being a reserve currency allows the US to borrow at low interest rates, as central banks around the world are eager to buy US government debt. "Any country that can finance its expenditures by printing money or selling bonds is essentially getting a free lunch," Aizenman told Al Jazeera.
With China's apparent change of heart, that "free lunch" now might come with a hefty tab. Given the massive US trade deficit, average Americans might be sent to the restaurant's kitchen to wash dishes if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency.
Many experts suspect other countries will follow China's lead and invest more heavily in gold reserves themselves. The good news for China is that large gold reserves help promote the internalization of its RMB (the official currency of the People's Republic of China). That's just more bad news for the U.S. and the dollar...
This further signals how crucial our relationship with China has become. Currently, “ChinAmerica” – a term for the Chinese/American relationship coined by historian Niall Ferguson – is the most significant economic relationship in the world. Three decades ago, no one foresaw this shift in dynamics.
A recently released WikiLeaks cable shows that China is converting much of its foreign holdings in gold; far away from the U.S. dollar.
A majority of China's gold reserves are located here in the U.S and in some European countries.
While the U.S. and Europe have an alternative agenda to dissuade people from viewing gold as an international reserve currency, China's upping their ante. In doing so, China aims to push other countries towards reserving in more and more in gold; leaving the U.S dollar by the wayside.
Last week, European business officials announced that China plans to make its currency, the yuan, fully convertible for trading on international markets by 2015. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, said the offshore market for the yuan is "developing faster than we had imagined" but there is no definitive timetable for making the currency fully convertible. Presently, the yuan cannot be easily converted into other currencies, because of government restrictions.
China's gold holdings are small compared to other major economies. It has 1,054 tonnes, the sixth-largest reserves in the world, according to data from the World Gold Council.
This only furthers the complications and growing weakness of the dollar. As China is buying tons of gold and the yuan is traded freely, the dollar's dominance is under great pressure to maintain its status as the international reserve currency. These changes could very easily make it much more expensive for our government to borrow money, and to “run perpetual trade and budget deficits."
The U.S should prepare for a major wake-up call, because we may not have the #1 reserve currency for long...
As a reserve currency, the US dollar is the default for international transactions. If, for example, a South Korean company wants to buy wine from Chile, chances are they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, leading to greater demand. The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.
Being a reserve currency allows the US to borrow at low interest rates, as central banks around the world are eager to buy US government debt. "Any country that can finance its expenditures by printing money or selling bonds is essentially getting a free lunch," Aizenman told Al Jazeera.
With China's apparent change of heart, that "free lunch" now might come with a hefty tab. Given the massive US trade deficit, average Americans might be sent to the restaurant's kitchen to wash dishes if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency.
Many experts suspect other countries will follow China's lead and invest more heavily in gold reserves themselves. The good news for China is that large gold reserves help promote the internalization of its RMB (the official currency of the People's Republic of China). That's just more bad news for the U.S. and the dollar...
This further signals how crucial our relationship with China has become. Currently, “ChinAmerica” – a term for the Chinese/American relationship coined by historian Niall Ferguson – is the most significant economic relationship in the world. Three decades ago, no one foresaw this shift in dynamics.
歐銀取得美元難度增 黃金成兌換工具
歐債危機令歐洲銀行面臨挑戰，資金取得管道也受到影響。英國金融時報報導，歐洲銀行紛紛搶著用手中的黃金來換取亟需的美元資金，黃金交易商與分析師表示過去一週提供黃金兌換美元的情形踴躍，最近幾日更為熱絡。
根據Thomson Reuters資料，1個月期黃金租賃利率創下-0.48%的歷史新低(年化利率為0.48%)。瑞銀貴金屬分析師Edel Tully認為，租賃利率降低意味以黃金換美元的意願高。匯豐(HSBC)貴金屬分析師James Steel表示，租賃利率大降理論上對黃金是利空，不過也可能是危難的象徵，此因素又對黃金有利。
受到希臘可能違約的疑慮影響，美元避險需求大增，歐洲銀行以歐元兌換美元的成本自6月迄今大增為5倍，創下2008年12月以來新高。
大型金銀交易銀行由投資人、央行與其他商業銀行取得黃金，通常季底前後該等銀行最出借部分黃金，不過最近的情況特別引人注意。
http://www.moneydj.com/
根據Thomson Reuters資料，1個月期黃金租賃利率創下-0.48%的歷史新低(年化利率為0.48%)。瑞銀貴金屬分析師Edel Tully認為，租賃利率降低意味以黃金換美元的意願高。匯豐(HSBC)貴金屬分析師James Steel表示，租賃利率大降理論上對黃金是利空，不過也可能是危難的象徵，此因素又對黃金有利。
受到希臘可能違約的疑慮影響，美元避險需求大增，歐洲銀行以歐元兌換美元的成本自6月迄今大增為5倍，創下2008年12月以來新高。
大型金銀交易銀行由投資人、央行與其他商業銀行取得黃金，通常季底前後該等銀行最出借部分黃金，不過最近的情況特別引人注意。
http://www.moneydj.com/
全球黃金上半年投資量挫24%至624噸
調查報告顯示，2011年上半年黃金隱含淨減資量為94噸，去年下半年為淨投資232噸，2010年上半年為淨投資284噸。
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