| 又係火上加油.............你好野 (Kitco News) - The CME Group is raising the margins needed to trade Comex gold and silver futures are being increased by 21.5% and 15.6%, respectively, and the change will take effect after the close of business on Monday, the exchange said late Friday in a press release. The exchange is also raising copper futures margins by 17.6%. The move by the CME Group to raise the margin needed – also known as performance bonds – to trade gold, silver and copper futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange comes as prices for the metals plunged during the past two days as part of a sell off in financial markets in general. The CME Group is the parent company for the Comex and Nymex. The CME Group raised margins in other markets on Thursday and on Friday it also announced higher margins for long-term U.S. Treasury bond futures. The changes are as follows: Comex 100 ounce gold futures and 100-oz gold trade at settlement
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2011年9月24日星期六
CME Group Raises Comex Gold Margins By 21.5%, Silver Margins By 15.6%
Sprott Money Temporarily Runs Out of Physical Silver
白銀大減價..........多多貨都唔夠賣.........
http://kingworldnews.com/
With gold and silver prices plunging, King World News sources are reporting massive physical demand. One example is Sprott Money, which completely ran out of physical silver. Larisa Sprott, President of Sprott Money told KWN, “It’s been pretty wild, especially the last three or four days because of the price drop. People are trading in their paper money for gold and silver, but we are seeing more purchases of silver net. In fact the buying has been really skewed in favor of silver, there is tremendous demand.”
Larisa Sprott continues:
“We have completely run out of physical silver, so we are temporarily out of stock. You have to remember, Eric, that like Dubai, we only sell product that is on our shelves, that we have in stock. We do expect a shipment later today, which will allow us to restock and give us more product to sell.
Our clients are very savvy, sophisticated and when a price drop of this magnitude occurs, they step in and buy very aggressively. Right now there is dramatically increased volume what we are seeing is buying across all spectrums in terms of the size of the orders.
To clarify, we may have some client buying a single tube of silver maples, while at the same time, another client is buying $5 million of 100 ounce silver bars or gold maple leafs. The bottom line here is the drawdown in price is creating a tremendous amount of demand.”
交易商報告兩天內白銀現貨已被一搶而空，最大一單500萬美元！
http://kingworldnews.com/
With gold and silver prices plunging, King World News sources are reporting massive physical demand. One example is Sprott Money, which completely ran out of physical silver. Larisa Sprott, President of Sprott Money told KWN, “It’s been pretty wild, especially the last three or four days because of the price drop. People are trading in their paper money for gold and silver, but we are seeing more purchases of silver net. In fact the buying has been really skewed in favor of silver, there is tremendous demand.”
Larisa Sprott continues:
“We have completely run out of physical silver, so we are temporarily out of stock. You have to remember, Eric, that like Dubai, we only sell product that is on our shelves, that we have in stock. We do expect a shipment later today, which will allow us to restock and give us more product to sell.
Our clients are very savvy, sophisticated and when a price drop of this magnitude occurs, they step in and buy very aggressively. Right now there is dramatically increased volume what we are seeing is buying across all spectrums in terms of the size of the orders.
To clarify, we may have some client buying a single tube of silver maples, while at the same time, another client is buying $5 million of 100 ounce silver bars or gold maple leafs. The bottom line here is the drawdown in price is creating a tremendous amount of demand.”
Silver heading for record fall
Silver heading for record fall 09/23/11 Fri
September 23, 2011, 10:54 AM
Silver prices are sliding sharply for a second straight day.
The metal is off $4.71 an ounce, or 13.14%, at $31.13 in closing price.
Friday’s slide would be among the 10 worst percentage falls for the metal in the past 20 years and the second largest nominal decline, after Thursday’s $3.89 drubbing, according to data compiled from FactSet Research.
Silver’s 10 worst percentage declines:
-13.75% 4/20/2006
-13.14% 9/23/2011
-13.05% 6/13/2006
-12.92% 10/02/2008
-11.10% 4/21/2004
-10.74% 10/10/2008
-9.94% 8/15/2008
-9.61% 9/22/2011-9.39% 12/08/2004
-9.18% 4/24/2006
-9.12% 8/05/1993
-Tom Bemis
September 23, 2011, 10:54 AM
Silver prices are sliding sharply for a second straight day.
The metal is off $4.71 an ounce, or 13.14%, at $31.13 in closing price.
Friday’s slide would be among the 10 worst percentage falls for the metal in the past 20 years and the second largest nominal decline, after Thursday’s $3.89 drubbing, according to data compiled from FactSet Research.
Silver’s 10 worst percentage declines:
-13.75% 4/20/2006
-13.14% 9/23/2011
-13.05% 6/13/2006
-12.92% 10/02/2008
-11.10% 4/21/2004
-10.74% 10/10/2008
-9.94% 8/15/2008
-9.61% 9/22/2011-9.39% 12/08/2004
-9.18% 4/24/2006
-9.12% 8/05/1993
-Tom Bemis
Hedge Funds Selling Gold!
Hedge funds have been stocking up on gold to hedge against inflation as the equity markets have faced some tough times over the past two years.
Shockingly, investors were surprised to see gold tumble down a bit after the equities market slipped again yesterday.
September delivery for gold futures dropped to $1,739.20, losing $66.30, or 3.7 percent.
No one seemed to expect this, as gold has been soaring in recent days.
Some traders said that hedge funds were beginning to unwind, or close out, what has been a very popular and profitable trade for the last 18 months as they bet the dollar would fall and that gold would rise. In the last month alone, the euro has fallen nearly 4 percent against the dollar amid worries about the European debt crisis.
Experts suggest the sell-off is happening because investors are building up some of their faith in the dollar after the Fed's stimulus announcement Wednesday and, therefore, turning away from risky assets.
Historically, gold and the dollar trader inversely of each other. Right now, hedge funds want to raise cash, so they're selling some gold.
But, it's not the end of the gold rush just yet...it's just a pullback. Even with today's losses, gold is one of the top best investments of this fiscal year – with 22 percent gains.
Gold strategists recently predicted gold to surge all the way up to $2,300, as it did back in the 1980s (when adjusted for inflation).
Gold, whether through futures contracts or via exchange-traded funds, has been a popular investment among some of the world’s largest hedge funds. One of the best known “gold bugs” is John A. Paulson, whose firm, Paulson & Company, is the biggest shareholder in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. But many other hedge funds have embraced the metal as well.
After peaking in early August, hedge funds have been reducing their exposure in the gold futures market, according to Mary Ann Bartels, the head of United States technical analysis for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
So, yes gold is experience some pull-back today. Perhaps, this is an ideal time to buy...because gold's going to maintain its popularity for quite some time...
*Indented excerpts from CNBC.
黃金深調符合預期白銀牛市徹底終結
此刻（9月23日20:00）看到黃金、白銀以及各種商品大幅下跌，中國千萬貴金屬、商品投資者再次中伏，不禁感慨萬千。筆者此前的警告雖然再次被驗證正確性，但是顯然沒能幫助更多的投資者擺脫財富遭洗劫的命運。尤其是在剛剛再次警告，話音幾乎未落之際。
9月22日（昨天）晚20:00受上海中外企業家聯合會邀請，在斯格威鉑爾曼大酒店發表“中國宏觀趨勢：股市、樓市、匯市和黃金”的演講，指出在中國繼續貨幣緊縮，在歐洲債務危機導致嚴重美元流動性緊縮，美聯儲延後推出量化寬鬆3.0的情況下，中國股市將繼續下跌，樓市進入加速下跌通道，大宗商品將大幅下跌，黃金將深幅回調，至少將跌至每盎司1650一線。
截止今天20:00，國際金價已經跌至每盎司1690美元，而更慘烈的是白銀，兩天暴跌17.78%。此前，本人在接受某網站採訪時曾明確表示白銀牛市已經終結，非常遺憾的是，這一警告未能得到更多投資人重視。
不過，就個人而言，作為一個金融市場趨勢預測家，一個國民財富風險預警者，本人的責任已經盡到，也可以安心了。
9月22日（昨天）晚20:00受上海中外企業家聯合會邀請，在斯格威鉑爾曼大酒店發表“中國宏觀趨勢：股市、樓市、匯市和黃金”的演講，指出在中國繼續貨幣緊縮，在歐洲債務危機導致嚴重美元流動性緊縮，美聯儲延後推出量化寬鬆3.0的情況下，中國股市將繼續下跌，樓市進入加速下跌通道，大宗商品將大幅下跌，黃金將深幅回調，至少將跌至每盎司1650一線。
截止今天20:00，國際金價已經跌至每盎司1690美元，而更慘烈的是白銀，兩天暴跌17.78%。此前，本人在接受某網站採訪時曾明確表示白銀牛市已經終結，非常遺憾的是，這一警告未能得到更多投資人重視。
不過，就個人而言，作為一個金融市場趨勢預測家，一個國民財富風險預警者，本人的責任已經盡到，也可以安心了。
2011年9月23日星期五
美不印鈔 港人要為衰退備戰
美不印鈔 港人要為衰退備戰
星島日報 – (綜合報道)美國聯邦儲備局經過兩日會議後，決定不再推出新一輪量化寬鬆措施，改為以扭轉操作壓低長息，期望穩定經濟。消息公布後，市場憂慮經濟面臨收縮，港股大幅下挫，全球由擔心出現滯脹，變成恐懼衰退重臨。
聯儲局本周議息，被視為全球金融市場的重頭戲，戲碼就是繼兩輪大舉印鈔放水後，被譏為「坐直升機派銀紙」的主席伯南克，會否再推出第三輪量化寬 鬆措施。美國會否放水，本來在上月全球央行聯會會有啟示，當時伯南克已使出拖字訣，到了今個月，共和黨的重量級議員去信反對再推出量化寬鬆，已令到儲局出 招機會大減。
放水若釀滯脹 後遺症大
市場對印鈔救市的希望逐漸降溫，當消息證實，亞太股市大跌，美股昨晚開市亦下挫三百多點，這個跌幅其實已反映了財金當局不斷控制期望的成果，否 則華爾街股市反應可能還要強烈，原因是儲局不放水，改為採用賣短債、買長債的「扭轉操作」，勢難阻止經濟下滑的勢頭，前景荊棘滿途。
金融海嘯爆發經過幾年時間，西方經濟創傷仍未回復，最主要是實體經濟問題根本未有解決，發達國家債台高築，失業率偏高，形成惡性循環。表面上， 美國國債如雪球般滾大，形成惡性循環，骨子裏真正禍患是黨爭不息，總統和國會對峙、執政和在野兩黨互絆後腿，為來年的總統競選勾心鬥角，真正振興經濟的計 畫只聞樓梯響，單靠央銀獨力支撐，又怎能對抗接踵而來的危機？
受到次按和樓市泡沫爆破創傷，美國縱使在低息環境下療養多年，近日出台的數據仍反映增長乏力，大企業為保業績，紛紛舉刀準備裁員，市道隨時再受 重挫。政府債台高築，又無法說服國會加稅，結果只有兩條路選擇，一是冒滯脹風險，再度大舉印鈔；二是擺擺姿態，忍痛接受不景現實。無論那一條路，都不是無 痛良方。現在央行決定在現階段停止印鈔，經濟肯定面對下滑風險，資金於是由黃金、商品、股市流向美債避險，造成資產價格紛紛下挫。
壞消息陸續來 投資審慎
美國冒險印鈔或忍痛讓經濟自行調整，對香港都難免受到衝擊。兩害相衡，聯儲局若再開動印鈔機，帶來的後遺症會更深遠，原因是港元跟隨美元走軟，入口通脹強勁，加上本地失業率低，市道容易過熱，資產泡沫不斷膨脹，埋下日後硬着陸的禍根。
美國印鈔救市的憧憬破滅，造成今次股市大跌，繼之而來是衰退威脅襲來，產生的衝擊不宜低估。未來一段時間，不利消息可能還會陸續有來，港人應該 做好準備，處變不驚。至於投資者是否應該趁低吸納，先要看個人財政狀況，宜適當保留現金在手。由於經濟環境轉差，將影響企業盈利，投資宜分段吸納優質公司 股票，並有較長綫持有的準備。
聯儲局本周議息，被視為全球金融市場的重頭戲，戲碼就是繼兩輪大舉印鈔放水後，被譏為「坐直升機派銀紙」的主席伯南克，會否再推出第三輪量化寬 鬆措施。美國會否放水，本來在上月全球央行聯會會有啟示，當時伯南克已使出拖字訣，到了今個月，共和黨的重量級議員去信反對再推出量化寬鬆，已令到儲局出 招機會大減。
放水若釀滯脹 後遺症大
市場對印鈔救市的希望逐漸降溫，當消息證實，亞太股市大跌，美股昨晚開市亦下挫三百多點，這個跌幅其實已反映了財金當局不斷控制期望的成果，否 則華爾街股市反應可能還要強烈，原因是儲局不放水，改為採用賣短債、買長債的「扭轉操作」，勢難阻止經濟下滑的勢頭，前景荊棘滿途。
金融海嘯爆發經過幾年時間，西方經濟創傷仍未回復，最主要是實體經濟問題根本未有解決，發達國家債台高築，失業率偏高，形成惡性循環。表面上， 美國國債如雪球般滾大，形成惡性循環，骨子裏真正禍患是黨爭不息，總統和國會對峙、執政和在野兩黨互絆後腿，為來年的總統競選勾心鬥角，真正振興經濟的計 畫只聞樓梯響，單靠央銀獨力支撐，又怎能對抗接踵而來的危機？
受到次按和樓市泡沫爆破創傷，美國縱使在低息環境下療養多年，近日出台的數據仍反映增長乏力，大企業為保業績，紛紛舉刀準備裁員，市道隨時再受 重挫。政府債台高築，又無法說服國會加稅，結果只有兩條路選擇，一是冒滯脹風險，再度大舉印鈔；二是擺擺姿態，忍痛接受不景現實。無論那一條路，都不是無 痛良方。現在央行決定在現階段停止印鈔，經濟肯定面對下滑風險，資金於是由黃金、商品、股市流向美債避險，造成資產價格紛紛下挫。
壞消息陸續來 投資審慎
美國冒險印鈔或忍痛讓經濟自行調整，對香港都難免受到衝擊。兩害相衡，聯儲局若再開動印鈔機，帶來的後遺症會更深遠，原因是港元跟隨美元走軟，入口通脹強勁，加上本地失業率低，市道容易過熱，資產泡沫不斷膨脹，埋下日後硬着陸的禍根。
美國印鈔救市的憧憬破滅，造成今次股市大跌，繼之而來是衰退威脅襲來，產生的衝擊不宜低估。未來一段時間，不利消息可能還會陸續有來，港人應該 做好準備，處變不驚。至於投資者是否應該趁低吸納，先要看個人財政狀況，宜適當保留現金在手。由於經濟環境轉差，將影響企業盈利，投資宜分段吸納優質公司 股票，並有較長綫持有的準備。
弱美元與現代「尋金熱」
馮觀榮、林建
閱 報得悉「世界電影經典回顧2011」系列將會在9月底重播差利．卓別靈的《淘金記》。差利．卓別靈自導自演的電影，筆者在童年時每一部都有看過，其中對 《尋金熱》（現譯《淘金記》）印象猶深。故事記述當年美國阿拉斯加州發現金礦，小人物差利．卓別靈與一群失業者也參加了淘金的行列，不幸遇上暴風雪，被困 在山上饑寒交迫之際，卻遇上昔日自己曾暗戀的舞孃；笑中有淚，淚中帶笑的情節，由是展開。電影中，被風吹得左搖右擺的木屋、差利吃鞋以充饑的場面，至今難 忘。
黃金重要性曾受懷疑 差 利的《尋金熱》，製作於1925年，當時布列頓森林協定（Bretton Woods Agreements）還未有出台，但黃金作為財富保值工具早已深植人心。1944年，44個國家通過了布列頓森林協定，其中一個重要的內容，就是把黃金 與美元掛鈎，從此黃金就正式地跑上了國際貨幣的舞台，成為貨幣發行的基石。但好景不常，六十年代開始至七十年代初，爆發了多次美元危機，美元對黃金貶值， 美元與黃金掛鈎的體制名存實亡；1973年開始，世界各主要貨幣實行浮動滙率制，從此黃金的價格又再自由浮動起來。
由 於七十年代美元開始走弱，以美元計算的金價在脫鈎後仍然維持強勢，於1980年1月21日，創出了850美元一盎斯的高價，但由於黃金已失去其對貨幣的主 導地位，投資界開始懷疑黃金作為一個投資產品的重要性；八十年代中，香港就曾出現過「十年黃金變爛銅」的說法，果然，金價在1980年至2000年經歷了 20年的熊市，由800多美元跌至200多美元。
牛 熊交替，好像是投資市場不易的真理，黃金的價格在上世紀末跌至接近其生產價後，於2004年重上400美元，當時就有經濟學家Mark Thornton從技術分析角度出發，指出金價將會迎接一個長期的升勢（a secular bull market）（見【註】，Mark Thornton並於2005年預測樓市泡沫已達快要爆破的邊緣）。其後，金價真的節節上升，於上月（2011年8月23日）創出了每盎斯超過1900美 元的歷史新高，行文時金價還是居高不下，徘徊於1800美元一盎斯的高位。
事 實上，當黃金的價格於1999年跌至接近其生產價時，代表了投資界當時只把黃金等同於其他任何一隻商品，而把它的投資價值做了一個近乎百分之百的撇賬。他 們忽視了在戰爭時期及諸如當前經濟金融市場不穩定時期，人們往往對一些傳統資產的價值，比如證券、債券、現金等失去信心，轉而增加對黃金的需求。
近 年歐美各國的貨幣供應急劇增加，多個大國都受雙赤問題所困擾，黃金又開始重拾過往的江湖地位。金融海嘯後，美國經濟持續低迷，以及美國聯儲局的量寬貨幣政 策（QE）進一步弱化了投資者對美元的信心。美元持續走弱及近期的歐債危機，令投資者重投黃金的懷抱，新一輪的「尋金熱」由是興起，令金價於2010年突 破1000美元後，仍然能夠屢創新高。
美元與金價的負相關性
為 了對美元與金價的關係作進一步的量化分析，我們搜集了2000年1月至2011年9月有關黃金價格和美滙指數的資料，其走勢見【圖】，兩者互相背馳的形態 至為明顯。跟着我們計算兩者n天的回報率（n由1至22），並計算其相關系數（correlation coefficients），結果見【表】的第一列。
計算顯示，兩者有相當大程度的負相關，而且其負相關的程度與持有期長短無關：由2天的持有期起計算，相關系數都介乎-0.40至-0.49之間，相當穩定。
記得我們在分析VHSI與HSI的負相關時就曾指出負相關在HSI下跌時尤為明顯；黃金與美元的負相關又是否類似呢？換句話說：負相關會否在美元下跌時來得更為緊密呢？
為 了解答這個問題，我們把這11多年的時段劃分為六個時段，在第一、三、五時段，美元上升；在第二、四、六時段，美元下跌【圖】；然後分別計算在升市／跌市 時的相關系數。由【表】的結果可見，負相關的程度不受美元升跌所影響；換言之：比較美元升——黃金跌及美元跌——黃金升這兩者的關係，結果是相當對稱的。
這樣穩定的一個負相關，正好說明一點，投資黃金來對沖投資美元資產的滙率風險，有一定程度的對沖效用（hedging effectiveness）。由於港元掛鈎美元，港人對黃金能對沖美元貶值帶來的損失的投資效益，也不應予以忽視。
除了可對沖美元的滙率風險外，黃金投資亦可以對沖股票市場的風險，當另文介紹。
註：A Bull Market in Gold - Technically Speaking, Mark Thornton, Lew Rockwell.com
馮觀榮為香港浸會大學財務及決策學系教授
林建為香港浸會大學榮休教授
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