歐洲銀行.....已達高危水平

歐洲銀行摃桿比率已達高危水平....

圖中所有銀行早前話全部已通過壓力測試,

大家坐穩....睇來美匯又再轉強....金,股,匯.....又來過山車

Interesting Conditions in the Small Silver Market

Posted by Wealth Wire - Monday, October 17th, 2011

An interesting and potentially tradable condition is unfolding this week in the small silver market.

Traders worldwide are watching to see if silver “respects” its May lows or instead falls below them to test/establish new correction lows. 

Just below is a chart of the largest silver ETF, (SLV) as a proxy for silver, the commodity (click to enlarge).  

 

A look at this chart will show a picture of Silver’s (SLV) late-April sell-off of 40% the first week of May. For almost three months silver seemed to consolidate and began a run up when it ran into resistance at $42.00. I can only conclude that the investors who had bought up in this range wanted out of silver even. From there it bounced from $38.00 to $42.00 when Dr. Bernanke announced “Operation Twist.” This sent the dollar up and investors fleeing gold and silver. A look at the chart will show that silver lost 25% in 1 week. It has fought its way back to close on Friday at $31.34 and that begs the question where do we go from here?

There is no doubt that silver has had a tumultuous year. There is also not a doubt in my mind that silver will continue to increase in value as long as we continue the printing of fiat paper to solve our financial problems. My regular readers know that I am fond of Gerald Loeb. In his epic tome “The Battle for Investment Survival” he writes that it is human nature to see more dollars than we had last week and think that we are doing well financially. This however is sheer folly. The true test of a currency is not how many you have but rather what is the value of the currency. Voltaire said in the 1700’s “paper currencies will always revert to their intrinsic value – zero.” This leaves the question where does the average man go to protect the value of his money? This leads me to gold and silver.

Gold and silver have always been currency. It has always been so. There are many that would argue that gold is money and silver is an industrial metal. I would beg to differ.

According to Black’s Law Dictionary, it means gold, silver, or paper money used as circulating medium of exchange. In its strict technical sense money means coined metal, usually gold or silver, upon which the governments stamp has been impressed to indicate its value.

I think the U.S. Mint might make a case that we can establish as to the current status, and this is what is clearly stated on their Web site.

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins are affordable investments, beautiful collectibles, thoughtful gifts and memorable incentives or rewards. Above all, as legal tender, they’re the only silver bullion coins whose weight and purity are guaranteed by the United States Government. They're also the only silver coins allowed in an IRA.

In an email from one of my readers he said that $1923 was the peak for gold and could spend the next few years correcting. $50 silver will depend on gold, the odds of which look extremely low. The correction in USD either finished on Friday or will soon, as with TLT. Equities and metals are set up for an interim fall.

In conclusion, I try never to look at any holding in the micro lens (except leveraged ETFs like SPXU, UPRO, TZA and FAZ). I try and look out further into the future and see where a particular stock or commodity will be in one, two or three years. Bearing this in mind I will continue to do what I have always done and that is when the occasion is right I will buy physical, gold and silver and in the short term keep an eye on the trading ranges of gold (GLL and UGL) and Silver (ZSL and AGQ).

*Post Courtesy of investingadvicebygeorge.blogspot.com.

金銀處十字路口

石林

上周金價以1679.8元（美元．下同）收市，銀價則以32.16元收市，分別比前周漲升2.50％和2.84％。然而牛熊雙方對後市的爭辯不但沒有停止，甚至沒有較明確的結論，因為迄今金市尚未有嘗試挑戰大跌後的關鍵回升阻力位1703元，銀市亦仍受制於回升阻力位33.52元，兩者近期都在圖表上留下一個利淡的「上升旗形」的形態。

但另一方面，由於早前跌幅過甚，加上美國近期的經濟指標大都比預期好，似乎一掃衰退的憂慮，甚至有復蘇的迹象，因此看好金銀後市的意見在目前是較佔上風。 

由於早前的大跌市，使金銀兩市出現不少罕見的圖表技術現象，這些在銀市尤為突出，敝欄現選一些最少見及最有爭議性的地方，提出來與讀者分享及討論。目前金銀市勢處於一個十字路口，故應注視其本身的最終取態。

銀市倉位正反論

近月銀價從44.18元掉頭大跌至26.05元，此浪跌幅高達41％，較5月初急挫35％的比率更有過之而無不及。然而此跌依然險守近三年上升通道的底線，與此同時，技術指標MACD亦跌至極端超賣區，惟其後向上穿越訊號，故有牛方分析者認為這是極為利好的訊息。

另有研究好淡雙方倉位（COT）的分析員指出，前周業者在期銀市場中沽倉對好倉的比率降至1.47的歷來低水平，淨沽倉數量降至2003年以來的最低水平，還有淨沽倉數量佔未平倉合約總量的比率亦降至同年以來的最低。這都是一些極為利好的訊息，因為這是大投機者重新入市買入的最好時機。

可是我們到目前為止，未見到大投機者積極重投銀市買入，COMEX期銀市場的未平倉合約量（O.I.）只及高峰期的57％，大投機者的淨好倉量更只及高峰期的17％，銀價本身亦無重大突破。認真而客觀的分析者指出，業者沽倉量低或其佔比率小，並不表示銀價一定回升，由1986年至2000年就曾先後八次出現這樣的現象，當時銀價是續跌的，那是熊市的特徵。

此外我們將2007年9月至2008年8月的銀價圖表，與2009年10月至今的銀價圖表相對比，可發覺兩者形狀十分相似。而當年的圖表告訴我們：銀價從21.44元高位下瀉到12.20元，只反彈回見14.13元，其後兩個月再跌至8.40元才真正見底回升。

最近銀價從26.05元近期低位反彈，迄今仍受制於33.52元，若稍後銀價無法升越此位至34元地帶，我們不應鬆懈警覺。銀價須重返36.9元之上，才算重拾中性市勢狀態。

留意日內能否破困局

銀市表現淡薄，是對未來經濟增長不樂觀和通縮心態佔上風的體現。此還體現在最近鉑金價格大幅低於黃金價格方面，最大的逆差達157元，到上周末仍逆差120元。即使在2008年10月金融海嘯最低谷時，鉑金價仍比黃金價高出70元，故我們現不宜抱衰退已過、復蘇已來的看法。有人說現做「買鉑金沽黃金」的套戥將有利可圖，但目前是未見其利、先見其害，因為買賣合約有浮動利潤者不能提取，有浮動虧損者則要追補按金，況且我們不知兩者價逆差會否進一步擴大。

慶幸今年金市圖表的形狀並不與2008年時太過相似，但目前仍處於本文首段說的困局，我們日內要看金價能否在1680元以上收市，以及能否一試1703元至1720元的阻力帶。金價須重返1763元之上才算回復中性市勢，相反若跌破1625元要倍加警惕。

本月29日為「木星衝」（最接近地球），往年在此天象前後一段期間金價偏好機率是較大，今年則要看金銀兩市能否借助此機率，擺脫有如2008年10月最終還有一跌的命運了。

7 U.S. Cities on the Verge of Bankruptcy

Posted by Mike Tirone - Friday, October 14th, 2011

The harsh economic climate is changing. The time has come when citizens and companies aren’t the only ones being forced to file for bankruptcy…

Major cities are among the ranks of those in dire straits.

On Wednesday, Pennsylvania's capital city Harrisburg opted for the rarely used Chapter 9 of the U.S. bankruptcy code.

The current struggle is between the state and city of Harrisburg over control of the city, whose population of around 50,000 people had been having difficulties paying for critical services for over the past year. On top of that, the city has incurred as much as $458 million in debt and several lawsuits with creditors.

“The city does not have the ability to pay those money judgments or any significant portion thereof and still provide health and safety services to its citizens and other essential government services,” said Mark Schwartz, an attorney hired by the City Council.

According to Schwartz, bankruptcy gives the city “bargaining power” with its creditors, municipal workers, retirees, and the state.

"Municipal bankruptcies are rare. But if Harrisburg is successful in winning concessions with bondholders, pensioners and other stakeholders, it could lead other financially troubled cities to seek bankruptcy."
As of 1937, only 629 municipal bankruptcies under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code have been filed. Most recent of these is Orange County, California, which filed for bankruptcy back in 1994, and Vallejo, California, following in 2008.
Is your city or town next to fall onto the sword and file for Chapter 9?

The 7 U.S. Cities on the Verge of Bankruptcy

Washington, D.C.

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Washington, DC	599,657	$322 million	$9.6 billion	3.4%	$537	11.1%

The District's deficit was cut in half in 2010 due to tax increases, but Mayor Vincent Gray's budget plan calls for $127.2 million in tax and fee increases within income, parking, off-premise alcohol, and franchise taxes – in addition to public transportation fare increases, while cutting economic development, public safety, public education, and social services.

Still, Gray's plan will leave the Washington Metro Area in the red. He says the budget would inflict some pain: “[It’s] a tough budget, I'm not going to represent it as anything else,” he admits. Yet little more than a week after his budget plan was announced, he was arrested for protesting that Congress (which oversees the DC budget and laws) was taking away autonomy granted to the city for the last several years, meaning it will be banned from spending city money on things such as HIV prevention.

Detroit, Michigan

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Detroit, Michigan	713,777	$155 million	$3.11 billion	5%	$217	12.9%

Recently cited in a Reuters poll as highest potential candidate for municipal bankruptcy, Detroit mayor Dave Bing has tried to work with the Republican-controlled Michigan Legislature – but has struggled. His budget-balancing proposals include a higher tax on Detroit casinos, pension reforms, the suspension of state drive licenses for three unpaid Detroit parking tickets, and continuing to collect income and utility taxes. With the city’s dropping population comes less money generated from taxes, sinking the Motor City in even deeper debt.

Honolulu, Hawaii

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Honolulu, Hawaii	905,034	$100 million	$1.93 billion	5.1%	$110	5.2%

Honolulu Mayor Peter Carlisle was investigated by the local Honolulu Civil Beat which went on to reveal the Mayor had budgeted more than $43 million to fund 1,095 unfilled jobs for 2012. Carlisle’s first budget plan set out to tackle long-term debt; he said he would raise taxes and fees while asking unionized city workers for 5% pay cuts.

New York City, New York

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
New York City, NY	8.1 million	$4.58 billion	$65.7 billion	7%	$565	8.7%

Mayor Michael Bloomberg has already begun to address the FY2012 deficit by calling for layoffs in all city agencies, closing 20 fire departments during night hours, and reducing services for seniors, libraries, and cultural centers. Bloomberg dismissed around 6,000 of the city’s 75,000 teachers in June before the state passed its $66 billion budget with note to no more teacher layoffs. The New York City Mayor's office has predicted the city's budget gap could rise to $4.4 billion.

Chicago, Illinois

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Chicago, Illinois	2.7 million	$636 million	$8.2 billion	7.7%	$2353	10.2%

Chicago's former mayor Richard Daley destroyed the Windy City’s finances by using up nearly the entire revenue from a long-term lease of the local parking system and airport. The lease was supposed to last until 2018, but only made it to 2010. Chicago hopes to build a city-owned casino to raise revenue. Meanwhile, newly-elected Mayor Rahm Emanuel's first budget proposal was unveiled and focuses on large cuts. His new plan consolidates police and fire headquarters, reduces library hours, and takes out 2,000 vacant jobs – some of them police – out of the budget. Emanuel’s plans include the layoffs of more than 500 people.

Cincinnati, Ohio

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Cincinnati, Ohio	331,285	$60 million	$1.2 billion	20%	$181	8.7%

The City of Cincinnati has been keeping much of its fiscal policies quiet, only briefly announcing budget cuts and layoff plans for the past two years. Many believe the city’s limited announcements are in preparation to file for bankruptcy… Mayor Mark Mallory has been holding off discussion of the proposal set forth that the city will not lay off police officers in 2011 or 2012. Mallory is using his “campaign season” as an excuse to avoid addressing his plan to lay off police officers in the next two years while outsource the force to the neighboring city of Hamilton and dismantling the Office of Environmental Quality.

Camden, New Jersey

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Camden, New Jersey	517,234	$28 million	$138 million	20.2%	$54	11.1%

Newly-elected Mayor of Camden, Dana Redd, came into power and began ruling with a strong fist, but she still has a long way to go to dig the nation's most dangerous city out of deficit… In her 2011 budget proposal, Redd called for departmental budget cuts of 24%, a $4 million reduction in operating costs, a freeze on all non-essential spending, $7.5 million in cost reductions to the Fire Department, and worst of all, a $14 million reduction to the Camden Police Department – which in turn, cut the entire force in half.

Bonus list: Practically every major city in California: San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles

San Diego

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
San Diego	3 million	$56.7 million	$2.8 billion	2%	$19	10.2%

Despite cuts within the public and higher education sectors and fire engine cutbacks, San Diego is still in a deep hole. The fire stations had thousands of blackouts as the cuts rotated throughout different stations to save $11.5 million the current fiscal year. Weekly recreation center hours will be reduced to 20 hours, and the equivalent of 77 full-time positions were cut, saving $6.5 million. The city proposed 6% pay cuts for employees and has cut out 120 full-time positions.

San Jose

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
San Jose	894,943	$115 million	$2.5 billion	4.6%	$128	10%

San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed said it best, “Whether or not we declare an emergency, we're in an emergency. We just laid off police officers. Last year, we laid off firefighters. We've closed libraries, community centers. We are in an emergency and we need to take action.” Reed also looks to close the deficit by reducing services and controlling the cost of retirement.

San Francisco

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
San Francisco	808,976	$380 million ($480mil for '12-'13, $642mil for '13-'14)	$6.8 billion	5.5%	$470	9.7%

Mayor Edwin Lee presented his $6.8 billion budget proposal aiming to close the $380 million shortfall caused by growth in employee benefit costs and loss of revenues from state and federal government. The city will cut San Francisco's deficit by forgoing scheduled pay increases for city employees – saving $20.2 million – and enacted a hiring freeze.

Los Angeles

City	Population:	Deficit through 2012:	Budget in Fiscal year 2012:	Annual Budget Shortfall:	Deficit per Capita:	2011 Unemployment Rate
Los Angeles	9.8 million	$457 million	$6.9 billion	6.6%	$46	13.3%

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa closed a $336 million shortfall with large cuts to the police and fire departments while also cutting $19 million from Recreation and Parks Department. Also, Los Angeles' homelessness programs reduced funding by 10%, and permanent cuts to city spending have been made while reducing funds for public safety, library operations, and street preservation and maintenance.
*Combining all these four California cities, you get a deficit of $1.01 billion, a budget of $19 billion, and an annual budget shortfall of 5.3%. The unemployment rate of the four cities totals 10.8% or 1.572 million unemployed.

In June, Governor of California Jerry Brown signed the most austere fiscal package in decades. The package contains $15 billion dollars in cuts including:

$5 billion in health and human services

$1.3 billion in higher education

$1 billion in corrections

$350 million in the state's court system

$700 million in state employment compensation and governmental efficiencies

$400 million in California Community Colleges

The budget also has a clause for $2.5 billion in triggered cuts, meaning if anticipated revenue doesn't equate, there will be additional mid-year reductions in public education, public safety, higher education, and health and human services.

If it seems like a handful of California cities are in a financial bind… the entire Golden State is actually teetering on the edge of bankruptcy... as are many other of the major cities in the United States.

Martin Armstrong - Lessons from ’87 Crash & What’s Coming

When asked to tie the lessons from the 80’s into what we will see going forward, Armstrong stated, “Volatility will increase 50% over the next two years and then towards the latter part of about 2016 it will double again.  Volatility will increase dramatically, that’s the way markets work.  If you boil a pot of water when it gets to the boiling point, all of the sudden the water just bursts into bubbles.  That’s the way a market is.  So we haven’t seen anything like that in gold.


When you see that, that’s the time when you are getting into the final high.  Largely that is a factor of confidence and what is happening is that people are losing confidence in everything around them.”

Martin also discusses the White House coming back to him after the Crash of ’87 for help and much more. The KWN audio interview with Martin Armstrong is available now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE. 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/14_Martin_Armstrong_-_Lessons_from_87_Crash_%26_Whats_Coming.html

金融即將崩潰21前兆黑色十月危機四伏

全球金融市場將會在十月達到拐點嗎?目前有很多跡象暗示金融世界將經歷精神的崩潰。大規模的投資資金正在退出 股票市場，巨大的賭注將在十月攻擊標準普爾500 指數。歐洲債務危機將繼續惡性發展，不可思議的金融變化正在席卷全球。所有這些不尋常的活動表明某種大事件將要發生嗎?我們並不希望。但是從歷史上看，最 大的股市崩潰將要在秋季發生。所以，我們正處在“黑色十月”的邊緣。

下面的 21 個跡象暗示著金融世界將發生一些重大的事情，全球金融市場正處在精神崩潰的邊緣……

1.我們看見目前正有數量驚人的賭注投向標準普爾500 指數。根據美國有線新聞電視網，上個月，投向標準普爾500 的賭注金額達到了一年中的最高水平。但是這與我們所看到的十月份的金額相比不值一提。十月份投向標準普爾500 指數的賭注金額是極度令人驚嘆的。一些人正準備趁下個月股市崩潰大賺一筆。
2. 投資者正在從股市中大規模撤資。難道他們知道一些我們不知道的事情?下面是從《金融郵報》中一個報導中進行的摘錄……投資者已經從美國股票基金撤資，從4 月低開始，撤資的數額比雷曼兄弟倒閉後5 個月撤資的數量還多，增加了美國股市2.1 萬億美元的動蕩。
過去4 個月大約750 億美元從股票基金中撤出，彭博咨詢依據華盛頓的投資公司研究院和麻省的基金行業調查公司(EPER Global)所編制的數據顯示，從2008 年10 月到2009 年2 月撤離的資金是728 億美元。
3.西門子公司已經從兩家主要的法國銀行撤離了超過5 億歐元，並將這些錢存入了歐洲中央銀行。他們是知道什麼事情，還是僅僅有些緊張呢?
4.星期一，標準普爾將意大利的信用評級由A+下調至A。
5.歐洲中央銀行正在購買更多的意大利和西班牙債券，以試圖為迅速發展的歐洲金融危機降溫。
6.美聯儲、歐洲中央銀行、英格蘭銀行、日本央行和瑞士國家銀行發布聲明表示，它們將在10 月、11 月和12 月為歐洲商業銀行提供“無限”的資金。
7.到目前為止，意大利最大的銀行已經損失掉其超過一半的價值，第二大的銀行損失了44%。
8.安格拉‧默克爾的團隊在德國當地的選舉中正變得窘迫。最新的民調顯示，令人驚訝的82%的德國人認為她的政府在處理希臘危機中變現糟糕。目前，德國的民眾意見是對援助持負面態度，這對希臘來說是非常糟糕的消息。
9.希臘此時正經歷了完全的經濟崩潰。看看最近《衛報》的一篇社論提供的數據吧……首先想想危機的規模，在2009 年和2010 年的經濟收縮後，2011 年二季度GDP 進一步下跌了7.3%。在這個人口1100 萬的國家里，失業人口正接近90 萬，並預期超過120 萬人。這些數據讓人想起了1930 年代的大蕭條。
10.2009 年，希臘的債務佔GDP 的比率大約是115%。如今，希臘這個比率是160%。所有的節制消費的措施對他們來說根本無助于解決長期問題。
11.希臘債券的1 年期收益率目前超過了129%。一年前這些債券的收益率在10%以下。
12.希臘副財長Filippos Sachinidis 稱，希臘的資金只能堅持到下個月為止。
13.意大利目前債務佔GDP 的比率大約是120%，並且它們經濟規模要遠遠大于希臘的經濟規模。
14.葡萄牙兩年期債券的收益率現在超過了17%。一年前這些債券的收益率僅為4%。
15.中國似乎對歐洲銀行的穩定產生了擔憂。下面的內容來自于路透社最近的一篇報導……一家中國大型國有銀行停止了與許多歐洲銀行的外匯遠期和互換交易，原因是歐洲無停止的債務危機。星期二路透社從兩條途徑得到此消息。
16.歐洲中央銀行目前購買的黃金超過其出售的數量，這是超過20 年來第一次發生的事情。
17.IMF 首席經濟學家稱︰全球經濟進入了“危險的新時期”。
18.以色列拋售了46%的美國國債，俄羅斯也拋售了95%的美國國債。它們難道知道我們所不知的事情?
19.全球金融市場正期待美聯儲這周發布新的債券購買計劃，以進一步降低債券的長期利率。
20.如果一些富有的投資者相信奧巴馬的稅收計劃有希望在國會通過，他們也許開始在今年年底拋售股票，以避免在2012 年遭到更大的稅收。
21.根據美林最新發布的研究，美國經濟有80%的概率進入另一場衰退。當金融市場的情緒真得變得如此緊張，其結果是將推動一場大規模的多米諾股票效應。但願十月份不會發生什麼大事。
但願全球金融市場不會經歷一場精神崩潰。但是目前的局面更像是2008 年的每一天。引起 2008 年危機的問題還都沒有解決，如今的金融體系是二戰結束後最脆弱的時候。正如我昨日所說，美國從未真正從上場金融危機中復甦。
如果我們在下個月看到另一場大規模的金融崩潰，其結果將是毀滅性的。我們正逐步喪失抵抗力，準備著被擊倒的那一天。讓我們期待金融世界能聯合一致。我們不需要更多的經濟傷害。

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PERTH MINT OUT OF SILVER??

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