鉅亨網
法國可能失去其AAA評級，意大利五年期BTP債券的得標利率觸及歐元面世以來最高，歐債擔憂加劇，美元指數創出近期新高，黃金市場暴跌。
日K線圖顯示，現貨金今日收於一根帶上下影線的大陰線。現貨黃金最高觸及1,641.10美元/盎司，最低下探至1,563.90美元/盎司，收報1,568.20美元/盎司，上一交易日收報1,634.90美元/盎司，下跌66.70美元/盎司，跌幅4.08%。
美國紐約商品交易所(COMEX)黃金期貨周三(12月14日)收盤重挫，Comex-2月黃金期貨收盤下跌76.20美元，跌幅4.58%，報1,586.90美元/盎司。
交 易商傳言歐洲第二大經濟體法國可能失去其AAA評等，如果此事成為真，將妨礙歐元區國家遏制區內債務危機擴散的努力。另外，意大利周三標售五年期BTP債 券，意大利五年期BTP債券的得標利率為6.47%，較一個月前標售的可比國債6.29%的得標利率有所上升，后者在當時亦觸及歐元面世以來最高。分析師 指出，法國評級下調只是時間的問題，目前市場已經對評級下調進行了預熱，法國評級下調將嚴重打擊歐元區信心。
受歐債利空消息打壓，歐元兌美元日內跌破1.30大關，再次不斷刷出新低，美元指數創出近期新高。在歐債危機深化的大背景下，雖然美元和黃金同屬於避險品種，但美元的流動性和市場規模對資金吸引力更大，黃金市場受打壓。
機 構方面，匯豐銀行(HSBC)首席技術分析師JamesSteel表示，“一部分宏觀對沖基金正在結清黃金頭寸，并獲利了結。鑒於年底前成交量通常下跌， 我們預計價格震盪的情況將會加劇。”花旗集團(Citigroup)旗下技術研究部門CitiFX首席技術策略師TomFitzpatrick表示，“如 果金價本周收盤價在1，535-1，555美元下方，則修正可能會更深。”
技術面上，現貨黃金日線阻力位位於12月2日高點的1762.92美元/盎司和1700美元/盎司的整數關口；支撐位則位於1500美元/盎司的整數關口和1400美元/盎司的整數關口。
(王德軍 撰稿)
2011年12月15日星期四
宋鴻兵微博 15-12-2011
金銀投資重要的是看趨勢而不是短期價格波動。心要定，腦要靜，手要穩，拿得住，才能是最後的贏家。拒絕投機心態，克制槓桿操作，堅持實物投資，實行資產配置。人民幣如果每天跌停，銀行繼續保持負利率，股市回到了10年前，樓市拐點已經出現，老百姓的錢去哪裡避險？貴金屬顯然是資產配置的選擇之一。
《福布斯》12月12日文章：黃金價格長期看漲。原因1，幾乎所有主要國家均為負利率，英國－4.5％，美國－3.25%，中國和印度－2.23%，這是各國央行今年增持黃金儲備475－500噸的根本原因。當美聯儲宣布繼續保持超低利率政策到2013年，各國明年準備開動印鈔機刺激經濟增長後，黃金攀升的趨勢將繼續。
黃金價格長期看漲原因2，在過去14年裡，全球貨幣供應（M2）的持續濫發，促使資金尋求財富儲藏的新手段，黃金日益成為各國投資人規避紙幣貶值的主要選擇之一，因此，黃金價格與M2保持了同步增長。 2012年各國將再度保增長，歐美日中印巴均將放鬆銀根，黃金可能抵達2200美元
在過去10年中，白銀價格上漲超過了黃金，金銀走勢基本同步。 2012年歐債危機不通過印鈔票則根本無解，無論德法採取什麼政治手段，前提是歐洲央行啟動印鈔機。美國雖然短期走強，但沒有QE3經濟會再度衰退。中國和其它新興市場國家，經濟增長正在快速冷卻，刺激經濟的壓力與日俱增。 2012是各國的印鈔年！
誰擁有200萬億美元的金融資產？ McKinsey Global Institute今天的報告顯示85萬億美元為家庭所擁有。
《福布斯》12月12日文章：黃金價格長期看漲。原因1，幾乎所有主要國家均為負利率，英國－4.5％，美國－3.25%，中國和印度－2.23%，這是各國央行今年增持黃金儲備475－500噸的根本原因。當美聯儲宣布繼續保持超低利率政策到2013年，各國明年準備開動印鈔機刺激經濟增長後，黃金攀升的趨勢將繼續。
在過去10年中，白銀價格上漲超過了黃金，金銀走勢基本同步。 2012年歐債危機不通過印鈔票則根本無解，無論德法採取什麼政治手段，前提是歐洲央行啟動印鈔機。美國雖然短期走強，但沒有QE3經濟會再度衰退。中國和其它新興市場國家，經濟增長正在快速冷卻，刺激經濟的壓力與日俱增。 2012是各國的印鈔年！
誰擁有200萬億美元的金融資產？ McKinsey Global Institute今天的報告顯示85萬億美元為家庭所擁有。
2011年12月14日星期三
中國11月底M2貨幣供應量同比增12.7%
http://chinese.wsj.com/
中國央行週三公佈的數據顯示﹐截至11月底中國M2廣義貨幣供應量較上年同期增加12.7%﹐低於10月底的12.9%﹐略低於經濟學家的預期。
此前接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的14位經濟學家的預期中值顯示﹐截至11月底M2廣義貨幣供應量較上年同期增加12.8%。
中國金融機構11月份新增人民幣貸款5622億元﹐低於10月份的人民幣5,868億元﹐高於經濟學家預期的人民幣5,550億元。
中國央行週三公佈的數據顯示﹐截至11月底中國M2廣義貨幣供應量較上年同期增加12.7%﹐低於10月底的12.9%﹐略低於經濟學家的預期。
此前接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的14位經濟學家的預期中值顯示﹐截至11月底M2廣義貨幣供應量較上年同期增加12.8%。
中國金融機構11月份新增人民幣貸款5622億元﹐低於10月份的人民幣5,868億元﹐高於經濟學家預期的人民幣5,550億元。
WhERE TO KEEP YOUR MONEY AFTER MF Global
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/
I have been getting a lot of emails asking what to do in the aftermath of MF Global. Quite frankly, it is a very difficult question to answer. This game of trading with other people’s money has got to stop. The NY Press will not expose the truth because their biggest client advertisers are the very firms doing this nonsense. Hedge Funds have suffered losses. Readers as far away
as Singapore have their funds frozen when all they had were TBills on deposit. Farmers lost hedge positions. Anyone who wants to really compare the damage, it is 1000 times greater than Madoff and that is conservative. The US had the financial markets that supported it being the Financial Capital of the World.
I have been warning that the USA is in the process of losing that coveted crown of being both the Reserve Currency and the Financial Capital of the World. The US captured that crown from Britain in 1914, who stole in 1689 from the Dutch by putting the Dutch William of Orange on the throne. The Dutch took it from the Germans who had grabbed from the Italians.
So how do we deal with this type of crisis? This is why I have been warning we could be at the edge of such a precipice it may be similar to the Fall of Rome where the currency collapses due to inflation, banks lose a sense of safety forcing people to bury their wealth as the only means of security. As St Jerome said, when Rome Fell, they were still laughing! NY would sooner assassinate me than listen to me. So any idea that they will see the light is absurd. The fall is therefore inevitable. So the questions that are coming are in general like the following:
as Singapore have their funds frozen when all they had were TBills on deposit. Farmers lost hedge positions. Anyone who wants to really compare the damage, it is 1000 times greater than Madoff and that is conservative. The US had the financial markets that supported it being the Financial Capital of the World.
I have been warning that the USA is in the process of losing that coveted crown of being both the Reserve Currency and the Financial Capital of the World. The US captured that crown from Britain in 1914, who stole in 1689 from the Dutch by putting the Dutch William of Orange on the throne. The Dutch took it from the Germans who had grabbed from the Italians.
Asia is rising. Real Estate has still been booming long past the USA. These titles of Reserve Currency and the Financial Capital of the World are not permanent fixtures. They are always lost by corruption and arrogance. I could stand on the top of the NY Empire State Building and scream into the loudest sound system ever, and warn NY that it is digging its own grave big enough for the whole world to get sucked in. They would never listen, laugh, and say I was the lunatic fringe. Nevertheless, all societies really die by their own hand. It is fruitless to try to warn them. They will imprison you or kill you to keep that crown of glory. As show above, nobody has ever held that crown because of their own arrogance and corruption.
The West will simply fall – It’s Just Time. European politicians will not solve a simple problem the right way because they would lose power that comes at the end of the day. Washington will not clean up New York because they are owned by New York. It is what it is. We have to accept the likelihood of a Hollywood ending “happily ever after” is just not going to work out. Sometime marriages end in divorce and our political-economy are two words that should have been divorced the first moment they met.
The US legislative government is made up of far too many morons and Judases who grab the purse of silver and think nothing about their own progeny. The money is here today. Tomorrow’s another day. This has been the thinking in New York. If you rob a bank and give the money to a friend they go after the friend. What are counterparties (banks) exempt in this case? The crisis at MF Global is systemic – it is not a unique case.
The West will simply fall – It’s Just Time. European politicians will not solve a simple problem the right way because they would lose power that comes at the end of the day. Washington will not clean up New York because they are owned by New York. It is what it is. We have to accept the likelihood of a Hollywood ending “happily ever after” is just not going to work out. Sometime marriages end in divorce and our political-economy are two words that should have been divorced the first moment they met.
The US legislative government is made up of far too many morons and Judases who grab the purse of silver and think nothing about their own progeny. The money is here today. Tomorrow’s another day. This has been the thinking in New York. If you rob a bank and give the money to a friend they go after the friend. What are counterparties (banks) exempt in this case? The crisis at MF Global is systemic – it is not a unique case.
So how do we deal with this type of crisis? This is why I have been warning we could be at the edge of such a precipice it may be similar to the Fall of Rome where the currency collapses due to inflation, banks lose a sense of safety forcing people to bury their wealth as the only means of security. As St Jerome said, when Rome Fell, they were still laughing! NY would sooner assassinate me than listen to me. So any idea that they will see the light is absurd. The fall is therefore inevitable. So the questions that are coming are in general like the following:
Dear Mr Armstrong,
...
I am a Canadian investor who holds individual securities (gold and silver miners) , mutual funds(same), a hedge fund (same), and registered accounts, (called registered retirement savings plan) in Canada.
...
I am a Canadian investor who holds individual securities (gold and silver miners) , mutual funds(same), a hedge fund (same), and registered accounts, (called registered retirement savings plan) in Canada.
I am very worried about what sounds like a license to steal in the investment business. The recent MF global implosion seems to have left Canadian accounts unscathed according to the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. I have recently given thought to removing all of my money completely from the investment industry and going to physical gold and silver bullion only to avoid counterparty risk.
It appears that mutual funds and hedge funds are almost impossible to protect from MF Global types of schemes. Are individual securities held in certificate form safe ways to hold paper or are there many other schemes that could have me lose them also? Registered accounts in Canada seem totally susceptible also to hypothecation or other forms of counterparty risk not to mention governments could confiscate them, heavily tax them etc.
I understand that you would not want to give investment advice. My problem is that getting advice from anyone who knows the system is impossible. There are so few people who have the knowledge you possess of trading globally and the inner working of the corruption that exists.
...
Burying your money today is not realistic. Any broker you deal with, insist you want an agreement that NO assets or cash may be placed in REPO markets, lent out to any third party or used for their trading! This should be used by hedge funds as well. Those who invest in hedge funds should DEMAND that the hedge fund insists upon the same terms with any brokerage house or bank and that it itself will not place assets on loan to any such entities. If you have shares/stocks and you are not borrowing or using them for collateral, take delivery. If everyone starts to demand these actions to open any account, the industry will start to self-police. The regulators are worthless – they do not audit and have NEVER prevented a damn thing. They should be shut down and replaced with a new entity of which NO previous employees may be hired for they will bring the old ways with them. Because there could be a bank holiday like FDR did in the future because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis, try to keep 6 months of cash outside the bank to live on just in case. 
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