2012年3月17日星期六

巴克莱预计白银的工业需求会在未来几年中上升

发布时间:2012年3月15日(美国东部时间)
来源:Kitco金拓中文网(www.kitco.cn)
 
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)预计白银的工业需求会在未来几年中上升。
 
巴克莱表示:“我们相信,到2015年,制造业对白银的总需求量有望达到创纪录的水平,即便太阳能产业的(白银)消耗速度放缓,因为工业应用中白银的需求量——特别是来自新兴市场——依然强劲。”
 
太阳能电池板行业对白银的需求一直被认为是这种金属的“一个巨大发展机会”,尽管巴克莱不确定这一行业能在政府不给补贴或者成本无法下降的情况下为银市带来“转折”。
 
不过,该行表示:“我们仍然预计,在宏观背景改善的情况下,工业需求对白银价格走势的影响将会更大。”
 
巴克莱称,在过去10年中,工业需求在白银总需求中所占的比例已经从略低于40%升至50%以上。
 
该行说,白银的独特属性使其成为许多工业应用的一个“理想候选人”,原因是这种金属有良好的延展性,并且纯银的导电性与传热性在所有金属中是最高的,同时其还拥有很低的接触电阻。
 
 

「末日博士」麥嘉華﹕美元勢變廢紙 黃金房產不可無

http://hk.news.yahoo.com/

【明報專訊】人稱「末日博士」的麥嘉華(Marc Faber),與近年其他新興末日博士不同,其實他並非時刻唱淡,卻是真正的相反理論者,往往能提供「另類」觀點,極有啟發性。他最近在自己的博客寫道, 對孩子的最佳理財教育,是買一張100美元債券,然後用相架鑲起來,放在當眼處,用來教育下一代何謂通脹﹕這張債券,會在20年後變成接近廢紙!現金(美 元)又何嘗不是?

美元購買力 過去30年損耗逾八成

事實上,美國於1971年放棄金本位制後,等同美國可以自由印銀紙,令貨幣供應量不再受限,自始美元購買力便江河日下,美元的購買力,於1971年至今,不見了83%(見圖)!

要 知道,香港在1983年開始採用聯繫匯率制度,自始港元與美元掛鈎,美元購買力下跌,港元便也面對相同困境,在1983年至今,美元的購買力跌幅,也達到 57%!所謂購買力下跌,主要體現在通脹,以及美元匯價貶值之上,近年美匯不斷下跌,香港由於經濟與中國日益密切,中國通脹高企,令香港的面對輸入通脹, 情况遠較美國嚴峻,以至港元購買力的損耗,可能較美元更快和更差!

港通脹較美元嚴重 港元貶值壓力更大

對抗通脹,一般人都會想起黃金和房產。事實上,麥嘉華也剛在美國財經電視台CNBC接受訪問時表示,由於各國仍然大印錢紙,通脹難免,而全球資金亂竄將持續,只會令未來數年全球經濟和金融市場更加波動。他又預期,美國股市即將調整,但在通脹環境下,卻不宜全線持有現金。

麥嘉華建議,在通脹和波動的經濟下,可將資金分成4份,將其中25%持有黃金,另外25%持有房地產或與地產相關股份,另外25%買股,餘下的作為現金,如此就進可攻,退可守。他特別指出,不要持有債券。

末日博士在他的博客提到,他最近到了美國鳳凰城,與當地的士司機談話,對方說現時當地的5間房住宅,只要12萬美元便可購得,折算港元也不用100萬元,廉得匪夷所思。他說,可考慮購入有關物業,保留其中一個房間自住,其餘4間則作出租……

麥嘉華不相信現金和債券,卻認為要擁有房產,股神巴菲特日前在CNBC接受訪問時也說,如果可行的話,他願意買光美國所有的獨棟住宅。巴菲特表示,美國房市和股市一樣,都是眼下非常具吸引力的投資目標。

對於實物房產投資,巴菲特稱,如果以低利率水平購買並長期持有,房產投資的回報將高於股票。他建議購房者進行30年期的抵押貸款,並且在利率下降時進行再融資。

分析股神的說法,筆者認為重點有三,一是如要投資房產,要選對對象,即只在低價購入物超所值的洋房,二是要長期持有,三是若低息持續,房產回報會更勝股票!

香港正進行特首選舉,自然為市民大眾所關心,新特首7月上場後,其經濟和房屋等政策,估計也會有所變動。有趣的是,有電視台做街頭調查,大多數被訪者原來分不清三位特首候選人的政綱,卻是將關心主要放在黑材料和花邊消息之上。

不 過,也不是所有市民如此,筆者曾為《樓市敗局——十大不買樓的理由》第2版寫序的作者金道夫(筆名),便聯同他的另外兩個朋友,剛合作出了一本新書﹕《特 首開工喇﹕未來施政通識藍圖》(圖),為香港未來的經濟及社會規劃作出建議,希望未來不論哪人當上新特首,也可作參考。

放寬積金用途限制 「儲蓄」買樓更易

該書其中有關房政的部分,指出若想打破「地產霸權」,最簡單方法莫如積極發展新界土地,增加供應,自然便令發展商難以壟斷稀有的土地資源,並建議香港政府應仿效新加坡,放寬強積金用途限制,讓市民更容易藉「儲蓄」上車買樓。

中原剛公布城市領先指數CCL最新報96.69點,指數創11周新高,按周上升1.62%,升幅是50周以來最大。看來,今次「小陽春」威力不小,對於早前沽了自住物業等樓價跌後再入市的人,又要面對一定的心理壓力。

2012年3月16日星期五

Bullion Banks are in Total Control Over Gold & Silver SPOT Price

Marshall Swing: The Daily Show



Well, this past COT period was not particularly interesting, at least from a price change point of view, BUT, today’s (Wednesday) price change is truly interesting and as of this moment silver is down -$1.41 on the day and gold is down -$36.30 on the day.  So what does all this mean today?  Not much, actually, and I will show you why!!  But you have to wait until next week’s COT…



Oh no you don’t, I will show you today!

i


If you look at the third chart in this article at the Feb 29th date, you will remember gold fell -$77.10 in moderate total volume of 239,522 and silver an astonishing -$2.56 in relatively low  total volume of 52698.


You might say “that’s a lot of traded gold and silver contracts, isn’t it?”  The answer is an unequivocal NO.



Look at the second chart in this article and it shows the total volume, the Most Active Month volume (where the daily spot price is always determined), and then way down there at the bottom it shows you the positive or negative change for Open Interest that was traded on each day in the Most Active Month.  Keep in mind March 10th and 11th are weekend days and meaningless as the market is not open on those days but my Excel chart adds the days in anyway.  My Excel chart is created from a database, not me just entering the numbers into it.



丨

 What the second chart reveals is the actual Open Interest traded in gold and silver is about 1-5% on any given day of the total volume of the Most Active Month volume.

Did you realize that so few Open Interest contracts traded for those days determine the closing price for any given day?  Probably about 1% or less of silver stackers know this truth.  Now all the Doc’s readers know!



So what about all that total volume??  Well, about 95%+ of all that volume is just day traders and High Frequency Traders trying to make a profit on that day before closing.  They virtually all close their contracts prior to closing of the COMEX at 6PM EST.



Let’s go to the first chart and look at March 6th. 


Let’s go to the first chart and look at March 6th. 

































On that day, we see that the gold Most Active Month lost -7539 contracts and the price dropped -$31.80.  On March 7th, the Most Active Month lost -9773 contracts and the price gained +$11.80.  What primarily happened on those dates is the Bullion Banks and all other players rolled contracts to the 2nd Most Active Month but on March 6th the price dropped significantly, and on March 7th the price rose moderately.  So you ask “how in the heck did that happen?”  Well, some combination of longs and shorts being rolled to mostly the 2nd Most Active Month accomplished that feat.  You have to remember that contracts have to be added to the later futures month because there is always a price war going on there and it is primarily a current war fought over options.  If the Bullion Banks allowed price to move up significantly in those later months then they would get killed in Options trading.  They are too smart for that.  I am confident the Bullion Banks have computer algorithms that tell the nasty Morgue traders exactly how many contracts and at what price to buy or sell on any given day.


The next logical question is how can anybody win this war with the Bullion Banks.  There are a couple of ways, one much harder that the first:



1.       Stackers just keep stacking on all the price dips or when you think a bottom has set in and it is time to buy.  Eventually, COMEX physical inventory will be depleted and the COMEX will no longer determine spot price since they will, eventually, be unable to get inventory from mining producers.  In effect, there will be a squeeze on physical and longs demanding delivery on the COMEX will have a default on their hands then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down on the Morgue and HSBC.

2.      You somehow learn to determine what the Bullion Banks are going to do as far as raising spot price or lowering spot price.  That’s a tough one!  Almost impossible…


I maintain that the Bullion Banks are in total control over where the spot price is going.  They have such HUGE Open Interest positions that they are able to allow price to rise and fall at will.  It is only those traders who determine what their next move is that make money in the gold and silver futures market.  It is all a game about anticipation and sometimes those anticipations are profitable and sometimes they are not.  Only play in the paper markets if you are prepared to lose and keep those stops close so you do not lose your shirt!  Anything else is foolish.



A final comment on price determination.  Let’s go to yesterday’s results, the last day of the soon to be reported COT (on Friday).  We see that -2478 contracts left the Most Active Month.  So some combination of longs and shorts, mostly rolling over to the other futures months, determined that price was going to fall -$5.60 in gold and silver rose almost $+0.17 with its  Most Active Month losing -396 contracts. 





Despite all that it is only the sold or bought, longs or shorts, that do not close on each day that are the final determinations of the daily spot price.



So, why don’t the day traders and High Frequency Traders keep their Open Interest positions past the daily close?  Because they are expert (or not so expert) in making money off the spot price fluctuations during the trading day.



Now, one more concept…  Let’s suppose that all the Bullion Banks and Speculators do not buy or sell a single contract in a trading day.  At the beginning of the trading day spot price for gold is $1700.  Then it would be the day traders and HFTers that determine the spot price during the trading day BUT when they all sell out before the daily closing then the spot price would be EXACTLY where they found it at the beginning of the day!  Though the spot price during the day may have gone up $100, and gone down $200, once the day traders and HFTers have left the scene before closing the spot price would return exactly to $1700.

Look at the third chart again for the gold and silver action on Feb 29th.  We see that the Most Active Month in gold lost -17991 contracts and dropped $-77.10.  Silver lost a minor -1163 contracts but lost a whopping $-2.56 !!!



Why did it take so little for silver to go down so much?



One word.  FEAR.  Fear from seeing a tremendous drop in gold in a minute or two.  So a bunch of silver longs followed and got out very quickly and it only took the Morgue a few well placed shorts to drop price like a rock.  It was no more than an expert sigh for them in silver.



Until next week!



Happy stacking…





Maybe total volume was 400,000 during that day?  At the end of the day, it is a little simple sum of a fraction of shorts and longs Open Interest that determines what the spot price is at closing.



And that, my friends, is how massive volume has very little or no effect on determining spot price, except for the psychology of the Bullion Banks and the Large and Small Speculators watching the action.

2012年3月15日星期四

SD Exclusive: JP Morgan Whistleblower States JP Morgan Manipulates Silver & Gold Futures

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/

With today's NYT OpEd by Greg Smith of Goldman Sachs,  a JP Morgan insider has contacted us to release insider information regarding the manipulation of gold and silver futures by JP Morgan that he calls 'damning at best for JP Morgan', states that JPM is fearful of a cascading credit event being triggered in Greece as JPM has hidden derivatives in excess of $1 TRILLION USD, and confirms that JPM is involved with hiding client assets from MF Global.

This is the very first time this insider information has been made public, and the source is also contacting the CFTC with this same statement.


Dear CFTC Staff,

Hello, I am a current JPMorgan Chase employee. This is an open letter to all commissioners and regulators. I am emailing you today b/c I know of insider information that will be damning at best for JPMorgan Chase. I have decided to play the role of whistleblower b/c I no longer have faith and belief that what we are doing for society is bringing value to people. I am now under the opinion that we are actually putting hard working Americans unaware of what lays ahead at extreme market risk. This risk is unnecessary and will lead to wide-scale market collapse if not handled properly. With the release of Mr. Smith’s open letter to Goldman, I too would like to set the record straight for JPM as well.
I have seen the disruptive behavior of superiors and no longer can say that I look up to employees at the ED/MD level here at JPM. Their smug exuberance and arrogance permeates the air just as pungently as rotting vegetables. They all know too well of the backdoor crony connections they share intimately with elected officials and with other institutions. It is apparent in everything they do, from the meager attempts to manipulate LIBOR, therefore controlling how almost all derivatives are priced to the inherit and fraudulent commodities manipulation. They too may have one day stood for something in the past in the client-employee relationship. Does anyone in today’s market really care about the protection of their client? From the ruthless and scandalous treatment of MF Global client asset funds to the excessive bonuses paid by companies with burgeoning liabilities. Yes, we at JPMorgan that are in the know are fearful of a cascading credit event being triggered in Greece as they have hidden derivatives in excess of $1 Trillion USD. We at JPMorgan own enough of these through counterparty risk and outright prop trading that our entire IB EDG space could be annihilated within a few short days. The last ten years has been market by inflexion point after inflexion point with the most notable coming in 2008 after the acquisition of Bear.

I wish to remain anonymous as of now as fear of termination mounts from what I am about to reveal. Robert Gottlieb is not my real name; however he is a trader that is involved in a lawsuit for manipulative trading while working with JPMorgan Chase. He was acquired during our Bear Stearns acquisition and is known to be the notorious person shorting in the silver future market from his trading space, along with Blythe Masters, his IB Global boss. However, with that said, we are manipulating the silver futures market and playing a smaller (but still massively manipulative) role in manipulating the gold futures market. We have a little over a 25% (give or take a percentage) position in the short market for silver futures and by your definition this denotes a larger position than for speculative purposes or for hedging and is beyond the line of manipulation.
On a side note, I do not work directly with accounts that would have been directly impacted by the MF Global fiasco but I have heard through other colleagues that we have involvement in the hiding of client assets from MF Global. This is another fraudulent effort on our part and constitutes theft. I urge you to forward that part of the investigation on to the respective authorities.

There is something else that you may find strange. During month-end December, we were all told by our managers that this was going to be a dismal year in terms of earnings and that we should not expect any bonuses or pay raises. Then come mid-late January it is made known that everyone received a pay raise and/or bonus, which is interesting b/c just a few weeks ago we were told that this was not likely and expected to be paid nothing in addition to base salary. January is right around the time we started increasing our short positions quite significantly again and this most recent crash in gold and silver during Bernanke's speech on February 29th is of notable importance, as we along with 4 other major institutions, orchestrated the violent $100 drop in Gold and subsequent drops in silver.

As regulators of the free people of this country, I ask you to uphold the most important job in the world right now. That job is judge and overseer of all that is justice in the most sensitive of commodity markets. There are many middle-income people that invest in the physical assets of silver, gold, as well as mining stocks that are being financially impacted in a negative way b/c of our unscrupulous shorts in the precious metals commodity sector. If you read the COT with intent you will find that commercials (even though we have no business being in the commercial sector, which should be reserved for companies that truly produce the metal) are net short by a long shot in not only silver, but gold.

It is rather surprising that what should be well known liabilities on our balance sheet have not erupted into wider scale scrutinization. I call all honest and courageous JPMorgan employees to step up and fight the cronyism and wide-scale manipulation by reporting the truth. We are only helping reality come to light therefore allowing a real valuation of our banking industry which will give investors a chance to properly adjust without being totally wiped out. I will be contacting a lawyer shortly about this matter, as I believe no other whistleblower at JPMorgan has come forward yet. Our deepest secrets lie within the hands of honest employees and can be revealed through honest regulators that are willing to take a look inside one of America's best kept secrets. Please do not allow this to turn into another Enron.

Kind Regards,
-The 1st Whistleblower of Many

葛洛斯:Fed在跟我們玩場遊戲 QE3逃不了




全球最大債券基金 Pimco (太平洋資產管理公司) 首席經理人葛洛斯 (Bill Gross) 周二 (13 日) 表示,美國聯準會 (Fed) 將利率維持在低點,「某種程度是在跟我們玩場遊戲」。他並預期,央行還會再推出新一輪量化寬鬆 (QE)。

葛洛斯接受《CNBC》訪問時說,Fed 將會繼續這麼做,持續一段長時間,令投資人屈服並留在債市。

Fed 周二政策會議後,決定將利率維持不變。Fed 在聲明中承認,美國經濟出現走強跡象,但重申失業率仍太高,因此低利率將維持至 2014 年底。Fed 並未透露是否會有新一輪 QE。

葛洛斯卻相信,一定會有 QE3。因為自 2009 年以來,每當 Fed 或其他國家央行暫停 QE 措施,股價都會下跌、經濟走軟。他認為,短期內民間市場接手央行的推動經濟工作,希望相當渺茫。

High Relief Dragon Lunar II with Milk spots in Germany

一出廠就有奶點.....唔係呀

明天 收貨睇睇係未咁差先





http://forums.silverstackers.com/

商家降低成色吃差價業內人士曝黃金回收業黑幕

繼使用強酸“王水”浸泡金飾偷金、秤上做手腳缺斤短兩等慣用的黃金回收陷阱之後,近期行內人士再曝黑幕:金銀回收店私自“降低”成色吃差價。
黃金首飾款式舊了,但又捨不得丟掉;或者急需用錢,想換成現金的時候,很多市民就去黃金首飾回收店交易。記者近日對廣州市內的金銀回收店暗訪後發現,在金銀回收交易中,所謂的“高價回收”並不見得高,“雁過拔毛”也是在所難免。更讓人吃驚的是,如今不僅僅街頭小金鋪私自“降低”成色“吃”差價,連一些知名珠寶品牌也悄然加入到其中,目前黃金回收價遠遠低於市場價,有的甚至每克低了100元左右。
廣東省地質科學研究所珠寶玉石鑑定中心主任項賢彪表示,隨著黃金投資的持續升溫,與黃金回收變現有關的投訴也在逐漸上升。從投資的角度來看,黃金首飾其實並不保值。
記者調查
調查一:降低“成色”疑欺客
“原本以為路邊的黃金回收店才會騙人,原來大品牌更坑人!”前不久,廣州市民小鄭向記者投訴稱,因急需用錢,將家裡的黃金首飾拿去變現。明明購買的是千足金,到了回收店之後,店員僅憑肉眼檢測之後,便告知小鄭他帶來的金飾成色不足。小鄭感覺吃了虧,卻不得不將已被融掉的金飾賣給該店。當天的成交價是在回收價的基礎上,減去成色不足打折費、手工費等雜七雜八的費用,最後成交價比當天市場金價少了足足100元/克。 “看來買金根本不保值,等到要變現的時候才發現價格被壓得有多低!”小鄭由此發出了感慨。
據小鄭透露,檢測之前雙方進行了口頭協議,即檢測過程中出現任何損壞情況,商家概不負責。之後便開始進行檢測,對方先是用火燒,過了一會兒店內師傅觀察了下,便告知小鄭黃金的成色不足,金是95的金,要在回收價的基礎上再打折。明明當初在商場購買的是千足金,為何變成了95的金?雖然還想再與這家門店爭論,無奈金飾在融掉的過程中已被損壞,即使不想變賣了,這條金項鍊拿回家也無法再佩戴。
雖然經過協商,雙方了結了此事,但​​小鄭對金店的說法還是很不滿意,“這樣的檢測方式簡直就是行業潛規則,到底多少成色的金子扣多少,都沒有明確的說法,而且"成色"都是商家說了算。”
在採訪中,記者了解到,“僅憑肉眼、憑經驗判斷”這種鑑定方式在廣州多家金店普遍存在,並非個別現象,超9成的品牌和回收店都採取這種方式進行舊金回收。其實,在回收過程中,貴金屬的純度檢測是難點,分為有損和無損兩種檢測方法。有損檢測通常採用化學法檢測方法,對飾品有一定破壞性。目前市場上都是採取有損檢測者為多。而無損檢測卻對設備和操作人員的要求較高,一台無損檢測大型儀器,價格低則幾萬元,高則100萬元以上。而市場上像這樣的專業檢測儀器並不多見,所以一些加工商、金店就這樣鑽了空子。
廣地珠寶黃金回收業務負責人吳彬對向記者曝內幕稱:通過這種私自“降低”成色的方法,商家可以從中多賺幾十元/​​克,一條金項鍊賺幾百元、甚至幾千元是常有的事。不過,這些回收店的店員在回收過程中也會看是哪個品牌的貨品。如果是知名品牌,則不敢在成色上“大做手腳”;如果顧客帶來的是小品牌的產品,或者沒有品牌印記的,那麼就直接將成色“降”得很低,讓顧客無處伸冤。
調查二:商家回收規矩亂
黃金行情火熱,金店的生意也變得好做,一些黃金珠寶公司抓住機會不僅開展黃金回購業務,在黃金首飾上也推出回收舊金飾換新品的項目來賺取差價和手工費。
記者在採訪中了解到,除了幾家大型的黃金珠寶公司,多數知名品牌的黃金首飾店都只回收自己的產品,並要求消費者提供購買發票。但是回收的價格比實際每克的價格要低100多元。也有部分品牌拒絕回收,但是可以對自己品牌售出的產品以舊換新。
據了解,多家黃金首飾專櫃都表示接受以舊換新,但都有條件。在老鳳祥專櫃,工作人員說,非本店出售的黃金飾品以舊換新每克需加40元工費,另外,還需購買原克數20%的新金。老廟黃金的規定也與此基本相同。而周大福回收價則是每克黃金在當天價格上減30元,只能以舊換新,不能變現,並且只針對自家的金飾。潮宏基的回收價是在當天的價格上每克減去15元,同樣只能以舊換新,不能變現。英皇珠寶店的銷售人員則直接告訴記者,目前公司沒有出台任何的回收政策,沒法以舊換新,更不可能變現。
在別的專櫃,有的櫃檯以舊換新首先要折去項鍊20%的重量,並加購折後重量的25%以上的新金,得出的重量按照當天的金價計算價格,這其中,舊項鍊所值的價格只能按相對較低的價格計算。
廣東黃金公司的銷售人員告訴記者,高價回收足金和千足金,但每天的回收價是不同的,回購的價格每天都隨上海黃金交易所的實時價格在變動。例如今天的金價是351元,回收價是324元。如果是千足金,則按照當天的回收價交易;如果檢測之後金子成色不好,就要打折,有的黃金甚至要打到5折。