WGC：一季度德国投资者大量买入黄金 需求同比增20%

FX168讯 数据显示，一季度德国的投资者们大量买入黄金，希腊局势和欧洲央行的政策显然引起了德国投资者们对避险的需求。

世界黄金协会(WGC)周四(5月14日)发布的报告称，一季度德国的金币和金条销量同比大增20%至32.3吨，是一年之内最高的。

除了德国，其它一些欧洲国家的需求量也有明显增加。

WGC的市场信息主管Alistair Hewitt表示：“一季度是2011年以来欧洲金币金条需求最旺盛的一个开端，德国投资者们对欧洲央行政策、希腊和乌克兰局势有担忧。”

全球最大对冲基金掌门人：你该买点黄金了

全球最大对冲基金——桥水基金的(Bridgewater)掌门人Ray Dalio

美国投资界传奇人物、全球最大对冲基金——桥水基金的(Bridgewater)掌门人Ray Dalio近日在顶尖美国智库“外交关系协会”的活动上对为何所有人都需要配置一些黄金做出了解释。

他说道，“我想每个人都应该配置黄金，如果你没有配置黄金。只能说你根本不了解历史，或者不懂经济，除此之外我想不到什么合理的解释。”

Dalio称，可以将黄金视为一种现金的替代品，黄金才是真正的货币，还可以对冲其他资产的风险，他认为可以在资产中配置10%左右的黄金。

Ray Dalio在1975年创办桥水基金公司，当时仅从一套两居室的公寓中起步，如今管理着1690亿美元资产，是全球最大的对冲基金。他成功的至理名言是“独立思考，保持谦逊”。

全球黄金储量持续下滑 5年之后矿商或面临危机

FX168讯 眼下全球主要黄金生产商的黄金储量(gold reserves)持续下滑已形成明显的趋势。根据五大业内龙头——巴里克黄金公司(Barrick)、盎格鲁黄金公司(AngloGold)、纽蒙特矿业公司(Newmont)、金罗斯矿业公司(Kinross)以及Goldcorp矿业公司的最新数据，去年这五家公司的黄金储量较2013年平均下滑了14%，下滑区间在9-20%，具体数字大致在500万-1100万盎司黄金。

然而，与2013年的不同的是，去年矿商黄金储量下降已不能再责怪金价大跌。上述五家黄金生产商基本都是以与2013年相近的价格来计算自己的黄金储量。这样的变化主要体现为资产出售，以及近些年黄金生产商在金价大幅波动的情况下过度消耗储量。

以盎司计算，五家矿商中下降最多的是纽蒙特矿业公司，其黄金储量下降了1700万盎司，同比跌幅17%。以百分比计算，下降最多的金罗斯矿业公司，跌幅达到20%。

(五大黄金生产商储量持续下滑 来源：FX168财经网)

黄金储量持续下降的理由从来都不是秘密。黄金生产商通过挖掘消耗储量，当前业内都在注重成本削减，努力恢复盈利，为不是增加盈利。在黄金行业不景气的时期，主要的黄金生产商变得更加不愿意收购和扩大勘探支出。

当然，黄金储量下滑并不意味着矿商将在今年或2016年面临危机，未来几年他们可以继续在矿石上做选择，以维持盈利。然而这样的情况无法持久。相信在5年之后该问题将变得更加严重，特别是当金价继续跌向1000美元/盎司的时候。

如果大型黄金生产商想要保持行业地位，那么它们就不得不进行更深层的挖掘，或是并购更多初级生产商，从中获得一些便宜。

金價拉鋸 市況上落

石林 


上周初市場曾傳言，在前周金市交易末時段，短時間內有總值5.9億（美元．下同）的6月期金合約被拋售，致令金價從1205元水平大幅挫落至1169元，為今年3月中旬以來的低位，有人猜測是國際清算銀行（BIS）所為。

事件未有進一步數據披露，沽售者目的何在也不清楚，不過，當時金價急跌卻是事實。惟令人奇怪的是，該次拋售竟無後著，金價反而從該低位明顯回揚，上周剛好回彈至本欄上期估計的1199元短期阻力水平。

類 似事件往往又有「陰謀論」解釋，暗指是美國當局圖打壓金價的一個行動，而金價回升是中國趁低吸納的抗衡結果，但上述以「陰謀論」去詮釋似乎牽強，因為如果 真的有人意圖打壓金價，為何竟無後著？另外，近年中國占全球黃金交易的比重日增，誠然是事實。數據顯示截至4月24日的一周，上海黃金交易所的黃金實物提 取量又高達50.796噸，累積提取量共增至8696噸，但不代表中國全吸納了西方的拋售量，這是兩個不同概念。

如果單看金價波動行 情，最近兩周金價跌而復升的現象，可以說是近多個月來金市失去明確方向、在偏低水平拉鋸局面的繼續。即使在極短線，這種市況亦不時上演。例如在上週五，被 認為是5月份最重要經濟數據、即美國上月就業數據發表，數據甫出，金價急從1183元漲升到1193.5元，或許以為市勢回升，但金價迅即又回落到 1181.5元，竟低於剛才彈升的起步點，市場又以為是市勢轉跌。惟金價再往上爬升，至收市時以1187.5元結束一周交易，較前週回揚9.6元。

從 上述市況現象，可以察覺金市並無明確市勢，上下拉鋸戰常常發生，只是時密時疏而已。事實上，美國加息時間表至今仍無從估計，上月就業數字雖然與市場預期大 致相若，但3月份非農業新增職位只有8.5萬個，遠低於前值的12.6萬個，並且是2012年6月以來的最小數字。整體勞動力市場情形，未足以令聯邦儲備 局急於要在6月份加息，但今年最低限度加息一次或恐難免。

其實，美國債券市場已預先反映上述情況，上週四美國10年債券的價格一度跌至 接近今年最低水平，但至上週五竟能急速反彈約年內總跌幅的五分之二。相應的10年債券孳息率，其收市價曾揚升至2.25厘，為今年的最高收市水平，但仍略 低於一年平均線，到上週末回順至2.16厘。

債市暗示短期不加息

債券市場的表現，似暗示短期內聯邦儲備局不致調升利率，但中期走勢債價仍趨跌，而債息仍趨升。這可以解釋到近期金價跌不下去，但明顯回升則談不上，陷入偏低位反复拉鋸的原因。

截至上週二，期金市場的大投機淨多頭數量又減縮至接近3月份時的低水平，本週要看是否有再度入市跡象。而SPDR的持金量上週五降至728.33噸，為今年1月中以來的最低水平。

綜上所述，估計金市仍無明確的方向，上落市勢仍會持續。 1224元依然是重要阻力，近期阻力分別在1210元和1199元；而支持分別在1178元和1169元，重要支持在1160元。

金價反复拉鋸之局，或持續到下個月聯邦儲備局議息會議前夕。

Clean Float – Why the Dollar Must Collapse

For us, taking a long term view, it's easy to see beyond
the dollar's politically maintained currency value as
represented in exchange rates. Using the above part of
Mr. D's speech, one doesn't have to be very strategic
to dodge the coming US currency collapse.
-FOA

The purpose of this post is to further explain and define the "clean float" I have been implying since last June, and to show why the dollar's collapse is an integral part of it. My view of the future international monetary system is one of a predominantly (but not mandated) "clean float" in currencies, which is the monetary side of what I call "Freegold". Physical gold movements will only settle the voluntary imbalances of individual past and present savers, not aggregated imbalances as those will be corrected gradually, through the clean float. I should add that I see this as an effect of Freegold, not a prerequisite.

Back in January, with the dollar at 93 and rising fast, Bright Aurum asked, "Should the USD strengthen too much… can the FED buy euros without calling it a peg, but say ... active monetary operations... - a strategy to shake off speculators, and so on."

Yes, the Fed could certainly do so at the behest of the US Treasury. But the irony of this transition is that the US itself has been running a clean float since 1971. It's the ROW that has been running a dirty float against the dollar.

The dirty float is any official or unofficial exchange rate fix, peg, floor, ceiling or band defended by the public sector (CB). That's what causes imbalances to grow to system-busting levels, because the public sector steps in whenever the profit-driven private sector panics which is when it would otherwise correct. Occasional FX interventions for the purpose of combating unusual volatility, as long as there is no target exchange rate level, can certainly happen within a clean float. I'm not a purist. ;D

The majority of CB FX interventions are done visibly, for all of the logical reasons, and also empirically as well as admittedly according to a survey by the BIS. (The rare reasons for secrecy, according to the survey, are 1. to not actually affect the exchange rate when the goal is simply to acquire defensive reserves, 2. in cases where the intervention is expected to fail, 3. when the CB doesn't want to intervene but is forced to do so by politicians, 4. where intervention is inconsistent with other policy objectives, hence confusing signals will be given, and 5. where the central bank is not sure what it wants to achieve.)

For the US dollar, FX interventions are executed by the Fed under the direction of the US Treasury. This happens very rarely. In fact, it only happened twice from 1996 through 2006. At the end of each quarter, the Fed reveals if any interventions happened, and there were none in 2014. See here, here, here and here. The US has been philosophically and openly opposed to exchange rate manipulations of all kinds since 1971 (except for that brief time in 1978 when it asked Germany, Switzerland and Japan to print and swap their currencies for dollars to help Carter throw everything but the kitchen sink at the problem).

Today's dollar is essentially in a similar position to a currency that has been supporting its own overvalued exchange rate by running down its foreign reserves and will inevitably collapse when they run out, only it hasn't been doing that. The ROW has been doing it to the dollar, putting it in that position. Not that the US protested much while it was getting addicted to its privilege over a half century, but of course the ultimate irony is the ongoing protestations coming out of Treasury calling for the ROW to Stop Currency Manipulation!

It should be quite entertaining to watch how it all plays out next time the dollar starts plummeting, as long as you have some of those items I mention occasionally which let you sleep well at night. In terms of foreign reserves to deploy, the US has fewer than Korea, Mexico and Thailand, but slightly more than Malaysia and Indonesia. Of course it also has its gold, but that was not earned through running a surplus recently, it was earned through running a surplus 70 years ago and would have been long since gone were it not for the genius of Nixon, so US gold can't really be deployed in any meaningful way (yet). Treasury will ultimately be put in the singularly-unique position of having to both print like Mugabe to keep the bloated government functioning at status quo, AND simultaneously beg the same foreigners it has been telling to stop currency manipulation to start massively printing their own currencies to manipulate the dollar. Ouch!

It's difficult to even imagine the insane contradictions of the situation, but I imagine that's what FOA had in mind when he wrote about the US Treasury "shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates," but only "within official channels"(!), as physical gold returns "to official hands in Europe in exchange for Euros" which will presumably be used as FX reserves to support an ever lower dollar. "American policy has only the wish to manipulate its currency valuations with official currency trading" (in other words, IMO, meaning through the occasional FOREX interventions rather than a return to BW-style CB fixing or the post-BW dirty float of unofficial pegs and channels/bands) which is why "it will be in the US advantage for gold prices to rise and rise strongly" so that Treasury can get enough euros for its gold to at least slow the dollar's collapse. Remember, gold doesn't work well in currency defense at its discount market price, "just ask the Koreans and Indonesians". ;D

FOA (08/24/01; 10:54:30MT - usagold.com msg#101)
Part 2

=============================

I have presented this topic many times and again state that "all gold paper will burn". Most mine values included. Then and only then will gold values soar as physical units traded. Not before. As an adjunct, the illusion of most American paper wealth will also burn with this process that transitions the dollar away from reserve status.

At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF, leaving the US and its factions as the only support for dollar credit assets held overseas. Then the evolution of SDR use our guide knows so well will be complete. This will leave the SDR interpretation open to only one avenue to finding support: its basket currency function dissolved, gold will have to flow from American based stocks. With most of the present official credit gold leverage built upon IMF protocols, the US will find itself shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates.

With the world credit gold markets paralyzed in default and dollar credibility placed in question along with American economic stamina; physical gold will return to official hands in Europe in exchange for Euros. A paradox observed as high gold places more demands upon Euros and sends the dollar ever lower.

=====================

In all of this Alan Greenspan will say goodbye. A gentleman of his ability and stature will find no use for a position he cannot change from; a good general does not only retreat. Any lesser player can buy public and treasury debt for the purpose of constant hyper inflation; there is no policy strategy or gamesmanship in this.

As for gold being a problem to buy in the USA? Once again, I point out that American policy has only the wish to manipulate its currency valuations with official currency trading. It will be in the US advantage for gold prices to rise and rise strongly. An acknowledgment to Euro planning and a defeat for 30 years of American gold misuse. If treasury gold is traded at all, it will be within official channels to help control dollar values.

However, as paper gold values freeze up and their use fails the public, physical bullion brokers will become a popular as "crude oil" is to producers. I wish you "a deep well" in your affairs, my friend, and will respond more for a time.

======================================

Thanks Mr. speaker,,,,

Thanks all
TrailGuide

http://fofoa.blogspot.hk/

銀市下跌四周年紀念

石林

2015年已經過了三分之一，剛結束的4月，金價以1184元（美元．下同）收市，比3月微升1.3元。翌日，即5月1日（上週末），又滑落至1177.9元收市，比去年底收盤價1182.9元低出5元。

對於銀市而言，目下正是一個值得紀念的日子，銀價從最近一個牛市高峰往下回跌四周年。四年前，即2011年4月25日，銀價漲升至49.82元高位，惜仍未能打破前一個牛市的高位。其後在「五一」假期復市時，銀市出現大規模的拋售，揭開隨後數年跌市的帷幕。

銀市至今尚未有明確的止跌回升跡象，上週末收報16.095元，比去年底收市15.685元僅高出0.41元。然而，目前價位比四年高峰仍跌去了33.725元或67.7%。反觀金市，目前價位比三年半前的高峰下跌了745.8元或38.7%，整體表現乃優於銀市。

低位拉鋸格局

近大半年來金銀兩市陷入在一個交易區間內上下波動，儘管不時有短期的尖峰或低谷出現，但最終都未形成真正的持續趨勢，牛熊在偏低價位拉鋸的格局仍在維持。

近 期金市繼續類似的場面，前周金價雖然曾跌至1175元，低於前數週的低位1178元，市勢卻急促反彈，高位見1215元，超越了前數週的高位1210元。 但這都不代表有新市勢誕生，3天內金市又急挫見1168元近期新低位。如此反复的市勢說明市場對後市取向並無定案，投資者對美國聯儲局是否加息有不同的詮 釋和理解。

撇開市勢短線的波動，光指價位而言，目前實際上是處於數週來的偏低水平。簡單而言，美國是否在6月或9月加息，對金市已不是 最重要的事，市場似乎已相信最低限度今年將加息一次。但敝欄認為，這不是金市在反復中呈偏軟的深層原因。若仔細觀察市勢可發覺，上週三金價從周內高位向下 回落，並非在聯儲局發表議息結果之時，而是在美國首季GDP公佈之刻。該數據初值增長只得0.2%，較去年末季的2.2%大幅放緩。美元聞聲受壓，但金市 擺脫與美元的反向關係，兩者雙雙迴跌。

兩大壓力金價偏淡

敝欄讀者早就知道，若GDP增長放緩將令相應的貨幣流動性計算結果調低。根據上述美國首季GDP初值計算，該季的M1貨幣供應的流動速率僅為5.965，零期限MZM貨幣供應的流速更僅為1.353，兩者分別為數十年的新低。

各位亦早明白，金價自QE3實施開始就不再上升，反明顯下跌，背後主要原因是，再「大印銀紙」仍無法加速貨幣流動性；相反，貨幣流動性依然持續向下滑跌，金價及商品價格遂從高峰迴跌。問題是至今此情形未有改善，故金價在深層處繼續會受到這方面的壓力。

現請留意，近半年來金價與美國10年債券價格保持相當密切的同向與同步關係，上週該債價明顯下跌，相應的孳息率回揚到2.12厘的個半月來高位，金市目前亦受到這方面的壓力。

綜合上說，金市仍然維持低位反复拉鋸局面，但因受到上述兩種壓力，故較傾向偏淡。 1225元已證明是中短期高位，短期分別在1199元和1194元會有阻力；目前在1168元仍有爭持，但須留意1142元至1146元的關鍵支持地帶會否再被測試。

銀價17.4元相應是銀市中短期高位，短期則分別在16.6元和16.4元會有阻力；目前在15.6元之上仍有爭持，同樣要留意15元至15.2元的關鍵支持地帶會否再受考驗。

本週五將發布美國最新就業數據，屆時市況或又有較大波動，但建議在反復市勢中不要忘記掌握深層因素。

Why Is JP Morgan Accumulating The Biggest Stockpile Of Physical Silver In History?

There is a whole lot more going on behind the scenes than we are being told.
JPMorgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that “there will be another crisis”in a letter to shareholders…

Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial market.
The trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one – but there will be another crisis.

And Dimon is apparently putting his money where his mouth is.
JP Morgan has suddenly accumulated more than 55 million ounces of physical silver. 
So why is JPM suddenly stockpiling physical silver in a MAJOR WAY?
Are Jamie Dimon & JP Morgan Chase anticipating another great economic crisis?

From The Economic Collapse Blog:

Why in the world has JP Morgan accumulated more than 55 million ounces of physical silver?  Since early 2012, JP Morgan’s stockpile has grown from less than 5 million ounces of physical silver to more than 55 millionounces of physical silver.

Clearly, someone over at JP Morgan is convinced that physical silver is a great investment.  But in recent times, the price of silver has actually fallen quite a bit.  As I write this, it is sitting at the ridiculously low price of $15.66 an ounce.  So up to this point, JP Morgan’s investment in silver has definitely not paid off.  But it will pay off in a big way if we will soon be entering a time of great financial turmoil.

During a time of crisis, investors tend to flood into physical gold and silver.  And as I mentioned just recently, JPMorgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that “there will be another crisis” in a letter to shareholders…

Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial market.
The trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one – but there will be another crisis. Triggering events could be geopolitical (the 1973 Middle East crisis), a recession where the Fed rapidly increases interest rates (the 1980-1982 recession), a commodities price collapse (oil in the late 1980s), the commercial real estate crisis (in the early 1990s), the Asian crisis (in 1997), so-called “bubbles” (the 2000 Internet bubble and the 2008 mortgage/housing bubble), etc. While the past crises had different roots (you could spend a lot of time arguing the degree to which geopolitical, economic or purely financial factors caused each crisis), they generally had a strong effect across the financial markets

And Dimon is apparently putting his money where his mouth is.

If Dimon believes that another great crisis is coming, then it would make logical sense to stockpile huge amounts of precious metals.  And in particular, silver is a tremendous bargain for a variety of reasons.  Personally, I like gold, but I absolutely love silver – especially at the price it is at right now.

Over the past few years, JP Morgan has been voraciously buying up physical silver.  Nobody has ever seen anything quite like this ever before.  In fact, JP Morgan has added more than 8 million ounces of physical silver during the past couple of weeks alone.  The following is an extended excerpt from a recent article by Mac Slavo…

*****

According to a detailed report from The Wealth Watchman JP Morgan Chase has been amassing a huge stockpile of physical silver, presumably in anticipation of a major liquidity event.

They’re baaaaack. Yes, “old faithful” is back at it again!

Of course, they never really left silver, and have been rigging it non-stop in the futures market, but for awhile there, there were at least no admissions of newly-stacked silver being made in their Comex warehousing facilities.

Yet, after a 16 month period of “dormancy” within their Comex warehouse vaults, these guys have returned with a vengeance.

In fact, our old buddies at JP Morgan Chase, not only see value in silver here, but they’re currently standing for delivery in their own house account in such strong numbers, that it commands our attention.  Let me show you what I mean.

Here’s a breakdown of the Comex’s most recent silver deliveries to JP Morgan:

April 7th: 1,110,000 ounces

April 8th: 1,280,000 ounces

April 9th:  893,037 ounces

April 10th: 1,200,224 ounces

April 14th: 1,073,000 ounces

April 15th: 1,191,275 ounces

April 16th: 1,183,777.295 ounces

This is a huge bout of deliveries in such a short space of time. In fact, within the realm of Comex world, it’s such an exceptionally large amount, that it even creates quite a spike on the long-term chart of JP Morgan’s vault stockpile:

All in all, JP Morgan has added over 8.3 million ounces of additional silver in just the past 2 weeks alone.

 Full report at The Wealth Watchman (via Steve QuayleandRealist News)

*****

So why is JP Morgan doing this?

Do they know something that the rest of us do not?

Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase has made another very curious move as well.  It is being reported that the bank is “restricting the use of cash” in some markets, and has even gone so far as to “prohibit the storage of cash in safe deposit boxes”…

What is a surprise is how little notice the rollout of Chase’s new policy has received.  As of March, Chase began restricting the use of cash in selected markets, including  Greater Cleveland.  The new policy restricts borrowers from using cash to make payments on credit cards, mortgages, equity lines, and  auto loans.  Chase even goes as far as to prohibit the storage of cash in its safe deposit boxes .  In a letter to its customers dated April 1, 2015 pertaining to its “Updated Safe Deposit Box Lease Agreement,”  one of the highlighted items reads:  “You agree not to store any cash or coins other than those found to have a collectible value.”  Whether or not this pertains to gold and silver coins with no numismatic value is not explained.

What in the world is that all about?

Why is JP Morgan suddenly so negative about cash?

I think that there is a whole lot more going on behind the scenes than we are being told.

JP Morgan Chase is the largest of the six “too big to fail” banks in the United States.  The total amount of assets that JP Morgan Chase controls is roughly equal to the GDP of the entire British economy.  This is an institution that is immensely powerful and that has very deep ties to the U.S. government.

Could it be possible that JP Morgan Chase is anticipating another great economic crisis?

We are definitely due for one.  Just consider the following chart from Zero Hedge.  It postulates that our financial system is ready for another “7.5 year itch”…

JP Morgan certainly seems to be preparing for a worst case scenario.

What about you?

Are you getting ready for what is coming?